Stratagem Security Dynamics of Balochistan as a Determinant of Pakistan’s Foreign Policy* On 3 May 2018, the Centre for Strategic and Contemporary Research held a panel discussion at the Pakistan Institute for Parliamentary Services, Islamabad, titled ‘Security Dynamics of Balochistan as a Determinant of Pakistan’s Foreign Policy’. The purpose of the discussion was to determine the significance of Balochistan’s internal dynamics for Pakistan’s foreign policy decision making as well as for regional peace and security. The select audience consisted of policymakers, diplomatic representatives, academicians, students and the media. Reproduced in this document is the transcript of the views of each of the panel discussants. Mir Sarfraz Bugti - Minister to Home and Tribal Affairs Due to shortage of time I will not discuss history, instead I will focus on the current scenario. When we took charge of the Government, we were confronted with three immediate security challenges. The first challenge was organised crime like street crimes, robberies, and target killings. The second challenge, looming on the horizon was of terrorism being committed in the name of religion, which is highly problematic because it makes the global community believe that Islam is associated with terrorism. Third was the challenge of violence committed in the name of patriotism or ‘Qaum-parasti’ which the Assembly recognises as terrorism, but intellectuals and friends from the media, including most people from Punjab refer to as the ‘upset Baloch’. I do not believe in ethnic division and I am an advocate of provincial harmony. In fact I am also married to a woman from Punjab. Punjabis have also been subject to violence, in scenarios where the murderers are often given utmost respect. In a recent incident, 13 people were pushed out of their buses and murdered, once their identity cards had been checked. With utter regret, no representative from the Punjab leadership visited their houses to offer them condolence. This is the guilt that is felt by the people of Punjab because they believe that somehow the same leadership is responsible for the Balochistan crisis. *The panel discussants were Mir Sarfraz Bugti, Ashraf Jehangir Qazi, Mohammad Faisal, Zhao Lijian, and Saleem Safi. 114 Vol. 1, No. 1, June 2018 Security Dynamics of Balochistan as a Determinant of Pakistan’s Foreign Policy Nevertheless, I do not think in a similar fashion. I should not be using the term insurgency because the dictionary meaning of the word does not befit the Balochistan conflict. It is a low-intensity conflict, triggered by two main factors. The first factor is that all disputes which previously arose in Balochistan were limited to two districts or a single division. For example, Kohlu was seized by conflict in the 1970s even though the neighbouring district Dera Bugti remained peaceful. The adjacent districts Sibi and Barkhan also remained peaceful. Similarly, the districts of Kalat and Khuzdar were apprehended after the conflict, but the districts nearby remained peaceful. The series of unfortunate events date back to the year 2002; no military operation was being conducted in Balochistan at that time. Many people are of the opinion that the Balochistan conflict, driven by patriotism, has intensified due to military operations, however that is not the case. Mr. Balach Marri was in London when the 2002 elections were held. He was called back to Pakistan and was forced to run as a candidate to win elections. When he approached the Assembly for the oath taking ceremony after winning the polls, the Speaker of the Balochistan Assembly asked him to repeat that he will remain loyal to the country. He repeated that he would stay loyal to the country and to the Baloch homeland. The Speaker of the Assembly repeated the oath once again, and Balach Marri responded in the affirmative. Whether the oath was legal or not, it was however his last day in the Assembly after which he went to Kahan (Kohlu district) for good. That day, the first footage of the Indian intelligence agency Research and Analysis Wing (RAW) was leaked in which an officer of RAW was killed in Pakistan, not during any operation, but during training. His dead body was sent back to India via Afghanistan. In 1993, Balach Marri’s father was called back from Afghanistan. As soon as he landed in Pakistan, he burnt the Pakistani flag at the airport. In an interview with Masood Ullah Khan on BBC, he admitted himself that he intended to carry on with his anti-state motives. These are historical facts to prove that the conflict did not start because Vol. 1, No. 1, June 2018 115 Stratagem of military operations; there were no operations between 2002 and 2005. The insurgents had three to four years to spread in Balochistan, especially in the southern region. From every region or district, a group of five to ten people emerged. Their leader belonged to the Marri tribe. Similarly, observing the events from the past few years, Commander Mama Qadeer - a Marri, was given that position by the local residents. Hence, the conflict spread in Balochistan after a lot of planning, originating from the area of the Marris. Marris never closed down their ferrari camps. When Marri returned to Pakistan, the state awarded him with billions of Rupees and a place to reside in Quetta. Whenever a situation of conflict develops in the city, it originates from this place, which has been the root cause of many problems. This is also how the insurgency was spread. As I mentioned at the very beginning, we had three types of challenges for which we made different strategies. The first strategy was made with the aid of the Federal Government and the Pakistan Army. Under this strategy, we announced forgiveness to all who opted for disarmament and would abide by the Constitution of Pakistan. Mullah Fazlullah opposed this announcement of forgiveness and demanded that his version of Islam should be imposed in the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA). He and his followers did not intend to divide Pakistan. However, unfortunately, the imposition of their version of Islam made no difference if the Frontier Crimes Regulations (FCR) was functioning in FATA. When the people of the FATA appear in the Assembly as Members of the National Assembly (MNAs), they can formulate legislation for others but not for themselves. Thus, I am of the view that Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan’s (TTP) version of Islam was imposed on the people of FATA hence it was not a big deal. The Baloch sub-nationalists had openly announced that they wanted to divide Pakistan through violence. They wanted to diminish the borders of Pakistan and create a new state. We conveyed it very clearly to them that violence in the name of religion is terrorism. But then again, violence in the name of patriotism seems to be unacceptable. It is difficult for me to understand why the 116 Vol. 1, No. 1, June 2018 Security Dynamics of Balochistan as a Determinant of Pakistan’s Foreign Policy State has been treating disorder in two different manners. Anyhow, the policy for a peaceful Balochistan was implemented which accounted for forgiveness and arranged rehabilitation. The outcome was that these insurgents, who were residing in the cities, now took shelter in the mountains. During 2009 and 2010, the Baloch Liberation Army (BLA) conducted gatherings at Meezan Chowk in Quetta, after which we forced them to move to remote areas; and later, by conducting operations, we pushed them to take shelter in the mountains. Contrarily, we have also been bringing them back from the mountains with the realisation that their entire leadership is residing in Europe, enjoying a luxurious life. Whether it is Hyrbyair Marri, Mehran Marri, Akhtar Mengal etc., they all are spending a life of luxury. The lavish life that they are living is at the cost of the blood of the Baloch, which they have sold to RAW in return for financial gains. Now, I firmly believe that the Baloch sub-nationalist movement is coming to an end. 10 years ago, there were districts in Balochistan with no Deputy Commissioner, for example, the Awaran district. The situation has become a lot better now: since a while there has been no incident in Quetta that has been claimed by the Baloch sub-nationalist groups. Coming to the problem of organised crimes, it is a serious issue for the Government. When several dead bodies were lying on the ground and the people were on strike, none of the Government representatives was ready to visit the area. It was this laidback attitude of the bureaucracy, politicians, Frontier Corps, and the armed forces, which consequently led to the deteriorated law and order situation. There have been only two cases of robberies in the past two years which come as a surprise. One of the robbers was also successfully arrested. Moreover, street crimes in Balochistan have decreased up to 99 per cent, and the ratio of organised crimes in Balochistan remains far less as compared to that of Islamabad and Rawalpindi. Proceeding towards the third major challenge that is terrorism in the name of religion, this challenge emerged from bomb blasts and the killing of Vol. 1, No. 1, June 2018 117 Stratagem the people from the Hazara community. Lashkar-e-Jhangvi (LeJ) was formed in Jhang. Surprisingly, its followers do not harm the Shias from Jhang, but only kill Shias residing in Quetta, specifically Shias from the Hazara tribe, which shows that they do not consider Shias residing in Jhang as non-believers, but the Shias from Quetta are non-believers for them. We need to make everyone realise that if Balochistan is destabilised, then the whole of Pakistan is destabilised.