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Chicago Covering 4Q 07

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Chicago Covering 4Q 07 Covering Fourth Quarter, 2007 Volume 13, Number 1 Chicago Auto Outlook TM Sponsored by: Chicago Automobile Trade Association Market Expected to Struggle in ’08; Strong Recovery Likely to Follow The economic events that have unfolded unemployment, falling housing values, the market a big boost. In conjunction over the past several months have not excessive consumer debt, slowing eco- with the inevitable cyclical recovery in been good news for the area automotive nomic growth, and high gas prices. Not sales, the emergence of mass market market. Questions about where the mar- an encouraging scenario, to be sure. advanced powertrain technologies (i.e., ket has been, and more important, where lithium-ion battery powered and plug in it is headed are primary concerns. Fol- Reasons for some hope during 2008 hybrids) could provide greatly enhanced lowing is a concise summary of key It would be a surprise if the area market motivation for consumers to enter the trends in the area market, with an em- moved higher in ‘08. But despite the new vehicle market. phasis on expected results during 2008. likely decline, we believe there are a few reasons why the market is not headed for It’s almost guaranteed that higher gas 2008 Forecast a collapse. Affordability for new vehicles prices and greater environmental con- Auto Outlook projects that area new retail remains at very respectable levels. Lower sciousness are here to stay. The industry car and light truck registrations will fall interest rates, aggressive pricing, and is on the cusp of a massive product 4.1% from 2007 to 2008. As discussed in personal income gains should help keep launch that addresses these emerging the previous issue of Auto Outlook, the a new vehicle purchase a viable proposi- trends. Just like high definition and flat market has now moved below its trend tion for many area consumers. In addi- panel screens have led to soaring televi- levels as economic events have taken a tion, economic conditions are expected sion sales over the past few years, new predictable toll on new vehicle sales. to improve somewhat during the second technologies will transform the automo- half of the year, while impressive new bile, and ignite sales for years to come. 2007 Wrap Up products should entice many shoppers to Area new retail light vehicle registrations take the new vehicle purchase plunge. Reporting of Indiana Data On Hold last year totaled 299,753 units, a drop of Due to processing delays at the Indiana 3.2%. The decline was in line with our Market poised to take off by 2010 DMV, new vehicle registration data is projection at the beginning of the year. Auto Outlook believes that within two unavailable for the state. All area regis- years, the weakness in sales in 2008 will tration figures cited in this issue include Reasons why the market will struggle be a distant memory. The pieces are in the six Illinois counties only. Data for the The list of negative forces impacting the place for the new vehicle market to take Indiana counties will be added as soon market in 2008 is long. Here are the big- off by 2010. After several years of slug- as it becomes available. gest threats: tight credit markets. rising gish sales, replacement demand will give Chicago Area New Retail Light Vehicle Market Summary Winners in Chicago Area Market Industry Summary Top 10 Brands - Percent Change in Registrations New Retail Light Vehicle Registrations 2007 vs. 2006 Kia 28.0% Forecast % Chg. Mkt. Share 2007 2008 '07 to '08 2008 Nissan 17.2% TOTAL 299,753 287,412 -4.1% 0.0% Lincoln 16.7% Mazda 13.9% Car 164,890 160,951 -2.4% 56.0% Light Truck 134,863 126,461 -6.2% 44.0% GMC 13.4% Saturn 10.2% Traditional Domestic 117,615 106,924 -9.1% 37.2% Infiniti 10.2% Japanese 135,733 133,909 -1.3% 46.6% European 30,677 31,309 2.1% 10.9% Honda 6.2% Korean 15,728 15,270 -2.9% 5.3% Hyundai 5.7% Jeep 2.9% Traditional Domestic consists of vehicles sold by General Motors, Ford, and Chrysler, and excludes import nameplates. 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0% Source for historical data: AutoCount, an Experian Company. % change in registrations - ytd '07 vs. ytd '06 Covering Fourth Quarter, 2007 Page 3 Segment Watch Mid Size Crossover and Compact SUV Segments Post Big Gains The prospects of $3 per gallon (or higher) Change in Segment Market Share - 2007 vs. 2006 gasoline prices for the foreseeable future have some industry pundits predicting the Mid Size Crossover SUV 2.0 death of the SUV, and a dramatic shift in Compact SUV 2.0 demand towards sub compact cars. Entry Car 1.1 Without question, higher fuel prices are Standard Mid Size Car 0.8 having an impact on the types of vehicles purchased, but as illustrated by the graph Sub Compact Car 0.7 to the right, SUVs are still in high demand Mid Size Luxury SUV 0.7 among Chicago Area consumers. Com- Full Size Pickup 0.1 bined market share for Compact and Mid Full Size Luxury SUV 0.0 Size Crossover SUVs increased four share Sports Car -0.1 points from 2006 to 2007. Looking to the Full Size Van -0.1 future, we believe the option of hybrid and diesel powertrains will provide some sup- Near Luxury Car -0.2 port to Full Size SUV sales. Compact Pickup -0.2 Full Size SUV -0.5 The table below shows the top sellers by Luxury Car -0.8 market segment during all of 2007. Lexus Sport Compact Car -1.0 RX was the best-selling Luxury SUV in the Mini Van -1.1 area market, while Toyota Camry was the Standard Mid Size Car leader. Mid Size SUV -1.5 Large Mid Size Car -1.7 Data: AutoCount, an Experian Company. -2.0 -1.5 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 Change in market share Top Selling Models in Each Segment - Chicago Area New Retail Registrations, 2007 Annual Totals and Market Share of Segment Cars Entry Sub Compact Sporty Compact Standard Mid Size Model Regs. Share Model Regs. Share Model Regs. Share Model Regs. Share Nissan Versa 2599 25.5 Honda Civic 9473 17.5 Ford Mustang 2047 40.2 Toyota Camry 10993 23.4 Toyota Yaris 2283 22.4 Toyota Corolla/Matrix 8168 15.1 Scion TC 1826 35.8 Honda Accord 8744 18.6 Chevrolet Aveo 2057 20.2 Chevrolet Cobalt 4016 7.4 Mitsubishi Eclipse 634 12.4 Nissan Altima 6806 14.5 Honda Fit 1399 13.7 Ford Focus 3547 6.5 Hyundai Tiburon 402 7.9 Pontiac G6 4285 9.1 Hyundai Accent 770 7.5 Toyota Prius 3499 6.4 Pontiac GTO 174 3.4 Hyundai Sonata 3377 7.2 Large Mid Size Near Luxury Luxury Sports Car Model Regs. Share Model Regs. Share Model Regs. Share Model Regs. Share Chevrolet Impala 4795 23.5 BMW 3-Series 3030 16.1 BMW 5-Series 1583 13.9 Chevrolet Corvette 838 29.5 Buick Lucerne 2124 10.4 Lexus ES 3015 16.0 Cadillac DTS 1231 10.8 Pontiac Solstice 284 10.0 Dodge Charger 2115 10.4 Acura TL 2342 12.4 Lexus LS 1093 9.6 Porsche 911 275 9.7 Chrysler 300 1822 8.9 Infiniti G 2004 10.6 Mercedes E-Class 936 8.2 Nissan 350 Z 272 9.6 Toyota Avalon 1784 8.7 Audi A4 1324 7.0 Mercedes S-Class 860 7.5 Saturn Sky 269 9.5 Light Trucks Compact Pickup Full Size Pick Up Mini Van Full Size Van Model Regs. Share Model Regs. Share Model Regs. Share Model Regs. Share Chevrolet Colorado 989 21.1 Ford F-Series 4997 34.2 Honda Odyssey 6648 34.5 Chevrolet Express 1875 47.2 Toyota Tacoma 973 20.7 Chevrolet Silverado 4392 30.1 Toyota Sienna 3950 20.5 Ford E-Series 1584 39.9 Honda Ridgeline 813 17.3 Dodge Ram 1615 11.1 Dodge Caravan 2864 14.9 GMC Savana 306 7.7 Ford Ranger 752 16.0 GMC Sierra 1185 8.1 Chrysler T & C 2281 11.8 Dodge Dakota 495 10.5 Toyota Tundra 1035 7.1 Nissan Quest 1070 5.6 Compact SUV Mid Size SUV/Crossover SUV Full Size SUV Mid and Full Size Luxury SUV Model Regs. Share Model Regs. Share Model Regs. Share Model Regs. Share Honda CRV 6931 19.9 Honda Pilot 3443 9.7 Chevrolet Tahoe 2239 28.1 Lexus RX 3794 18.7 Toyota RAV4 4594 13.2 Hyundai Santa Fe 3323 9.4 Chevrolet Suburban 1258 15.8 Acura MDX 2570 12.7 Ford Escape 3832 11.0 Toyota Highlander 2871 8.1 Ford Expedition 1063 13.3 Cadillac Escalade 1341 6.6 Chevrolet Equinox 2834 8.1 Chevrolet TrailBlazer 2657 7.5 GMC Yukon 922 11.6 Acura RDX 1180 5.8 Saturn Vue 1994 5.7 Nissan Murano 2577 7.3 GMC Yukon XL 725 9.1 BMW X5 1141 5.6 Page 4 Chicago Auto Outlook Chicago Area Retail Car and Light Truck Registrations - History and Forecast Registrations Market Share Units Percent Change Share (%) Change Forecast Forecast Forecast Forecast 2006 2007 2008 '06 to '07 '07 to '08 2006 2007 2008 '06 to '07 '07 to '08 TOTAL 309,761 299,753 287,412 -3.2% -4.1% Domestic Brands 132,344 117,615 106,924 -11.1% -9.1% 42.7 39.2 37.2 -3.5 -2.0 Japanese Brands 130,830 135,733 133,909 3.7% -1.3% 42.2 45.3 46.6 3.1 1.3 European Brands 32,293 30,677 31,309 -5.0% 2.1% 10.4 10.2 10.9 -0.2 0.7 Korean Brands 14,294 15,728 15,270 10.0% -2.9% 4.6 5.2 5.3 0.6 0.1 Acura 7,856 7,193 6,620 -8.4% -8.0% 2.5 2.4 2.3 -0.1 -0.1 Audi 2,773 2,805 2,856 1.2% 1.8% 0.9 0.9 1.0 0.0 0.1 BMW 7,350 7,155 7,738 -2.7% 8.1% 2.4 2.4 2.7 0.0 0.3 Buick 5,546 4,327 3,729 -22.0% -13.8% 1.8 1.4 1.3 -0.4 -0.1 Cadillac 5,975 4,733 4,532 -20.8% -4.2% 1.9 1.6 1.6 -0.3 0.0 Chevrolet 36,604 31,942 29,139 -12.7% -8.8% 11.8 10.7 10.1 -1.1 -0.6 Chrysler 7,955 7,210 6,095 -9.4% -15.5% 2.6 2.4 2.1 -0.2 -0.3 Dodge 13,623 11,748 10,859 -13.8% -7.6% 4.4 3.9 3.8 -0.5 -0.1 Ford 28,496 25,249 22,285 -11.4% -11.7% 9.2 8.4 7.8 -0.8 -0.6 GMC 4,819 5,467 5,357 13.4% -2.0% 1.6 1.8 1.9 0.2 0.1 Honda 34,522 36,664 36,921 6.2% 0.7% 11.1 12.2 12.8 1.1 0.6 Hummer 1,194 669 585 -44.0% -12.6% 0.4 0.2 0.2 -0.2 0.0 Hyundai 11,498 12,149 11,651 5.7% -4.1% 3.7 4.1 4.1 0.4 0.0 Infiniti 3,182 3,507 3,796 10.2% 8.2% 1.0 1.2 1.3 0.2 0.1 Isuzu 119 93 81 -21.8% -12.9% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Jaguar 595 475 480 -20.2% 1.1% 0.2 0.2 0.2
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