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Presentations/Materials Resilience in the Face of Climate Change A Regional Perspective Presented by: Robert Graff, Manager, Office of Energy and Climate Change Initiatives, DVRPC Erik Johanson, Manager of Strategic Business Planning, SEPTA Christopher Linn, AICP, Manager, Office of Environmental Planning, DVRPC DVRPC Regional Technical Committee March 11, 2014 - re • sile (rY-zill) intr.v. -siled, -sil· ing, -siles. 1. To spr~l).g back, especially to resume a former position or structure after being stretched or compressed. 2. To draw back; recoil. [Obso­ lete French resilir, from Latin resilire, to leap back : re-, re- + salire, to leap; see .sel- in Appendix.] re • sil• ience (r1-z1lfyans) n. 1. The ability to recover quickly from illness, change, or misfortune; buoyancy. 2. The property of a material that enables it to resume its original shape or position after being bent, stretched, or compressed; elasticity. re•Sil• ien •Cy (r1-z11Pyan-se) n. Resilience. sel... Important derivatives are salient, sally, saute, assail, desultory, exult, insult, result, somersault, and salmon. 2 Preparing to Bounce Back Faster 3 Doing Things Differently to Minimize Damage 4 More ExtremeIncrease Weather in mean Expected (a) More Previous ___ / weather c limate _./ More Less record hot ol• weather weather ~ New c limate .../, '-..... Cold Average Hoi Increase In variance (b) Previous _ ___,_/ climate More more More cold weather record weather' More cold New record hot weather climate ) ~ weather ~ _./ Cold Average Hoi Increase In mean and variance (C) Previou s ___ / Much more climate weather ) Mor'e Less record hot change weather for :OI New .../, weather climate Image credit: Cold Average Hoi 5 IPCC (2001) Future DVRPC = Today’s ARC? Eastern Pennsylvania 201o-2039 lower-Emissions Scenario Image credit:6 UCS * * Phase 3 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, LLNL, from FHWA’s Draft CMIP Climate Data Processing Tool 7 Hydrological Extremes Increase with Temperature Floods 8 Blizzards 9 Drought 10 Severe Thunderstorms 11 Tornadoes 12 Hail Storms 13 Hurricanes 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 Global Average Absolute Sea Level Change, 1880- 2011 12 ~ - Trend based on tide gauges ~C1l 10 u Satellite measurements ·­c - 8 6 4 2 0 -2 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 Year Data sources: • CSIRO (Commonweallth SdenHflc and lndustrla1l Re~earch Olrganrsatlon). 2012 update to data orlgrlnally published In: Church, J.A., and NJ. White. 2011. Sea-leve:l r~se from the late 19th to the earlly 21st century. Surv. Geophys. 32:585-602. • NOAA (Na.tfonal Oceanic and Atmospheric Administr-ation) ..2012 . Laborato:ry for Satellite Alltrmetry: Sea level rfrse. Accessed May 2012 http-J/Ibls.grdl.noaa.gov/SAT/SeaLeveiRise/LSA_SLR_tlmeserfes_globalphp. For more lnformailfon, v~sJt U.S. EP~s '\Climate Ohange Indicators In the United States" at Image credit:28 www.epa,qov/CDmatechange/lndlcators. U.S. EPA • below 1 .5 meters 1.5 - 3.5 meters D above 3.5 meters TOMS RIVER ------------VULNERABILITY-­ 29 . • 30 . • 31 32 33 Takeaways • The future is expected to have more frequent extreme weather events. • These are likely to have a damaging impact on transportation infrastructure. • We need to prepare now, both to protect infrastructure, and to be ready to repair it. 34 Questions? “Any doubling of the percentage of carbon dioxide in the air would raise the temperature of the earth's surface by 4°C; and if the carbon dioxide were increased fourfold, the temperature would rise by 8°C.” – Världarnas Utveckling (Worlds in the Making), 1906 Latest estimate from IPCC (2013): Svante Arrhenius 1.5 –4.5°C 1859-1927 CLIMATE VARIABILITY & RESILIENCE STRATEGIES: SEPTA’S EXPERIENCE ERIK JOHANSON MANAGER OF STRATEGIC BUSINESS PLANNING MARCH 11, 2014 SEPTA’S PRIMARY CHALLENGE: STATE OF GOOD REPAIR (SGR) TOTAL STATE CURRENT 20‐YEAR OF GOOD BACKLOG: REHAB & REPLACEMENT REPAIR NEED: NEEDS: $5 BILLION $8.5 BILLION $13.5 BILLION 37 CLIMATE VARIABILITY: A NEW CHALLENGE FOR SGR WHAT WE KNOW: • Four FEMA Major Disaster declarations in Philadelphia since 2010 • In Northeast US, aging systems more vulnerable • Climate trends a key consideration to ensure asset resiliency 38 EXTREME WEATHER IN PHILADELPHIA RD SNOWIEST WETTEST WARMEST WETTEST 3 SUMMER SNOWIEST 2010 EVER 2011 EVER 2012 EVER 2013 2014 EVER EVER (78.7”) (64.3”) (58.9°) (29.7”) (58.4”) POLAR VORTEX ICE JAM 39 CONTEXT FOR RESILIENCY PLANNING IS THIS GOING TO HAPPEN MORE IF SO, WHAT DO OFTEN IN THE FUTURE? WE DO ABOUT IT? 40 FTA PILOT PROGRAM OBJECTIVES: ONE OF SEVEN • Better Understand PROJECT TEAMS ACROSS U.S. Climate Projections • Assess Key Vulnerabilities • Develop Forward‐ Looking Resiliency Strategies 41 PROJECTED CLIMATE TRENDS PHILADELPHIA REGION BY MID‐CENTURY (2050) TODAY’S WEATHER… …% CHANGE IN FREQUENCY BY 2050 MINIMUM MAXIMUM AVERAGE CLIMATE VARIABLE PROJECTED PROJECTED PROJECTED CHANGE CHANGE CHANGE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE 4% 9% 7% 93° F (5TH %) 101% 302% 196% HEAT 98.1° F (1ST %) 215% 1,107% 540% AVERAGE RAINFALL ‐6% 17% 7% 1.4” (5TH %) 2% 30% 15% 2.5” (1ST %) ‐1% 69% 39% PRECIP “SNOW CHANCE” AugustDAYS 14, 2013 Track‐ 12%Washout on Manayunk/Norristown‐35% Rail‐25% Line 42 MANAYUNK/NORRISTOWN LINE MORE THAN 50% OF THE HIGHEST SCHUYLKILL RIVER CRESTS @ NORRISTOWN HAVE OCCURRED IN THE LAST 10 YEARS 43 RESILIENCE STRATEGIES UNDERWAY: CAPITAL SLOPE STABILIZATION RAISED SIGNAL HUTS TURNBACK OUTSIDE FLOOD ZONE EMERGENCY GENERATORS 44 RESILIENCE STRATEGIES UNDERWAY: OPERATING & MAINTENANCE DILIGENT TREE‐TRIMMING SANDBAGGING VENTWELLS STAGING FLEET IN HIGHER GROUNDS EMERGENCY RESPONSE TRACKING 45 RESILIENCE STRATEGIES: ADMINISTRATIVE CORE FIRST, RESTORE OUTWARD CUSTOMER COMMUNICATIONS INTERAGENCY COOPERATION PLANNED SERVICE SUSPENSIONS 46 FTA FUNDING OPPORTUNITY $3 BILLION AVAILABLE FOR “SANDY ZONE” • Prioritizes Projects that: – Harden Assets Against Future Natural Disasters – Reduce Risk of Disruptions from Natural Disasters – Cost‐Effective Projects From Collaborative Planning Efforts • SEPTA’s Application includes: – Power Resiliency – Flood Mitigation – Right of Way Hardening – Emergency Communications 47 CLIMATE VARIABILITY & RESILIENCE STRATEGIES: SEPTA’S EXPERIENCE ERIK JOHANSON MANAGER OF STRATEGIC BUSINESS PLANNING MARCH 11, 2014 Assessing the Vulnerability of New Jersey’s Transportation Infrastructure to the Impacts of Climate Change Presented by: March 2014 Christopher Linn, AICP, Delaware Valley Regional Planning Commission Project Goals t)dVr RevAC NJTRANSIT REGIONAL p The Way To Go. PLANNING COMMISSION FHWA Conceptual Model ClimatE! Information Gather climate Existing infom1;Jl:ion (obsetved inventories and projections) Existing data sets What is the lik.el:ih.ood Existing priorities, l.O"W kBlii"'DOifl a11d 111a"'illlde L(!t'ltl la evaluation tools lm il{l ,. l ~ l:ll offuhl~ J eli mille changes? Monitor and AMs.it as resources allow • High llkelllllllOd'HJgh m~ l f u lla til~ Jkellhooii.'LO'I'II' magnL'InlrJe Risk .. LWAI l lkellhOOIIJKigl\ magnL'bJitll n&l'ab ll lty I L o--wvt~ l I 'Wi:~hJ'I 5AXiJlE!' oC II Risft .Assessmem. pil e~ OIL~ side of soope of Risk Assessment pilot or ....;,.a,.. lden4YFI•. anal\170. a nd prioritize ~;hi Monitor and revisit ...,.. Low rlak H -:-II"' medium '"~ ' " ~-- as resources allow rlsk adaptation options 0 Central Study Area 0 Coastal Study Area New Jersey Roadways Interstates/Toll Roadways - US/State Roadways Atlantic City Water Features N ~: NJTPA HORTH JEIISEY TIIAHSPOR.TATIOH A PLAHHIHG AUTHOIIITY 0 12.5 25 50 ----=====::::::.______ Miles ACCESS & MAGNITUDE/ REDUNDANCY/ CONNECTIVITY DEGREE CAPACITY Is asset part of an evacuation ABSO­ route or an emergency or military LUTE preparedness plan NO YES NO Does asset provide access to HIGH Does another asset(s) provide critical economic, social, cultural, functional redundancy for this or natural facilities? MED asset? NO YES Does asset connect communities • Functional classification/class NO Does the asset(s) have sufficient or businesses with regional or • Volumes/ridership capacity to provide redundancy national transportation networks • Peak volumes/ridership (V/C and/or LOS) (includes priority corridors)? • Commodity flows and value NO YES Is redundant asset vulnerable to YES Does asset play a significant role same climate impacts in climate change/environmental vulnerability [FROM VULNERABILITY mitigation efforts or plans? ASSESSMENT] NO YES LOW NO YES assess _ primary Does asset provide functional asset redundancy for another asset? NO HIGH MEDIUM ! Connecticut ) New York Highway Network Crit icality --Extreme Criticality --High Crit icality -- Medium and Low Criticality Interstates Outside Study Area Other Highways 0 Central St udy Area 0 Coastal Study Area Water Features -- -.._-- N -... Delaware -~ A NJTPA- 0 5 10 20 30 40 50 - 11:::=---=====---===::J Miles Determining Climate Impacts . Sea Level Rise and Storm Surge . Inland Flooding . Temperature and Precipitation (avg. and extremes) Sea Level Rise and Storm Surge High Resolution LiDAR from USGS SLOSH Model Highways Potentially Vulnerable to Sea Level Rise and Storm Surge Inland Flooding Rail Infrastructure Potentially Vulnerable to 1% Storm Event Baseline (1990) number of “hot” days High emissions scenario “hot” days by 2100 Questions Bordentown Township Redevelopment – Proposed Connector Road Regional Technical Committee March 11, 2014 Michael Becker Senior Transportation Planner Meeting Outline Presentation Outline – Study Area – Problems/Traffic Issues – Project Objective – Project Tasks • Data Collection • Traffic Safety Analysis • Build‐out/Trip Generation
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