FSC PARTNERS MEETING

MARCH 9th 2020 Agenda

1. Opening remarks – Government MoAI & MoHADM) 2. Desert Locust situation update (MOAI crop protection Directorate) and FAO 3. Desert locust ground monitoring plan 4. Food security outlook and implication -FSNAU 5. FSC priorities and Target ( April-September 2020)- FSC 6. AOB a. Next meeting Ministry of Agriculture and Irrigation

An Update on Desert Locust Situation

A Briefing to Food Security Cluster Partners March 9, 2020 CONTENTS

• Background of DL • Causes of DL outbreaks in Somalia • Efforts of FMoAI against DL • The current situation of DL in Somalia • Forecasting • Action Plan • Gaps and Recommendations BACKGROUND

• Desert Locust (DL) is one of migratory pests that affects crops and rangelands and leads the food insecurity in the world. • It is difficult for a single country to manage it without regional and international cooperation • July, 2019, swarms of DL, invaded farmland and rangeland in Puntland, Galmudug and . This was as a result of breeding in the costal plains in Northern Somalia. • October 2019, new swarms of DL which escaped from the control have crossed the border of Somalia with Ethiopia, bred in the areas along the border area in Puntland amd Galmudug. • December 2019, swarms from Ethiopia & central regions of Somalia invaded the Southern regions • From July 2019 up-to 2020, approximatey 100,000 ha of farmland and rangeland were invaded by DL in Northern, Central and Southern regions of the country CAUSES OF DL OUTBREAKS IN SOMALIA

• Geographically, Somalia is one of the DL breeding countries • National Locust Unit is among many other national institutions that affected by civil war and totally collapsed. • Climate change impact: cyclones are becoming more frequent EFFORTS OF FMoAI AGAINST DL

1. Re-establishment of NLU: • Oct. 2019, after 28 years, MoAI participated in 64th session of DLCO-EA that took place in BISHOFTU- ETHIOPIA, the MoAI requested re-admission of DLCO-EA. • Nov. 2019, the MoAI invited the Director of DLCO-EA in Mogadishu to sign the revised convention of DLCO-EA. • Dec. 2019, MoAI attended the 41th session of Desert Control Committee (DLCC) that was held in ADDIS ABABA, ETHIOPIA. EFFORTS OF FMoAI AGAINST DL (cont.,)

2- MoAI reacted timely to Locust Outbreak While excercising its own responsbilities to fight back DL, the MoAI in collaboration with member states and help from FAO offered both training and equipment to the local communities affected by Desert Locust for the following states: • Galmudug (Adado, Dhusamareb, Abudwak, Bandiradley, Guriel & Balanbale) • Southwest (Wajid, Huddur, Elbarde & Baidoa ) • Puntland (buhodle, Bosaso & Galka’yo) • Jubaland (Doolow, Luq & Balad-hawo) • Somaliland (Togochale, Borama. Gidii, Garissa, Zylac, Lugaye, , Odweyne, , Qoryale, War Imran, Caynabo, Yagoori, Laas Canood, Durugusi, Oodane, Sarar) EFFORTS OF FMoAI AGAINST DL (cont.,)

3. Some initiatives to counter back Locust spreading: • The MoAI requested technical cooperation programme (TCP) for DL from FAO • In January 2020, the MoAI with a helping hand from FAO has trained a team on how to conduct surveys and data collection related to Desert Locust particulary breeding regions (Galmudug) • The team represented Plant Protection Department from the Federal Ministry in Mogadishu as well as representatives from Galmudug, Hirshabelle, Southwest and Jubaland. • February, 2020, the MoAI: -Declared State of Emergency of DL -The Minister attended the regional meeting held in ADDIS ABABA for DL CURRENT SITUATON OF DL IN SOMALIA

Surveys conducted from Dec 2019 – 16th Feb, 2020 DL CURRENT SITUATON, FEB 2020

• Northwest: Breedging occurred between Lughaye and Bulhar/near Burao and hopper bands fomred near Berbera and immature and mature adult groups laying egges near Burao

• Northeast: immature swarms in Garowe

• Central: Scattered hoppers, adults and immature adult groups between Galkayo and Beletweyne DESERT LOCUST FORECAST, MAR-JUN 2020

• An increasing number of immature swarms are likely to form in the parts of the country, some of which could move further southwards while others are likely to remain in areas that are favorable and mature.

• Another generation of breeding is expected to occur on the northwest plateau, giving rise to further hopper bands

• It is expected that the millions of eggs are currently in the soil and will hatch in the coming Gu season and will continue for breeding of another season thereby causing massive damage to vegetation and crops.

• Since it was not managed at the place of origin or breeding ground, it is expected that the damage or loss of the new generation will be higher than the previous season Action Plan (Feb-Jul 2020) for DL Control Impact assessments, and 1 Continuous surveillance 2 Ground and air control 3 Environment, Health and Safety Update Update Update

• Surveillance ongoing in • Control operations ongoing in Somaliland and • Estimates of likely impact on Gu Somaliland, Puntland and Puntland season production and food Galmudug security outcomes estimated by • 15,000 ha treated by ground teams FSNAU/FEWS NET • Preparations ongoing to collect • Preparations ongoing to scale up control Desert locust ground operations in all areas information in collaboration • Preparations ongoing to collect • Additional vehicle mounted sprayers (6) with FSC partners Desert locust ground information delivered on 4 March to Garowe, and Dhusamareb. in collaboration with FSC partners • Additional 3,800kg bio pesticide on the way. • Additional sprayers from ready to be air lifted. • Action plan needs to be revised and updated to cover the period through December 2020 Protect lives and livelihoods (Feb-Jul 2020)

1 Risk reduction farming package 2 Supplementary feed 3 Cash assistance

Farming - agropastoral areas at risk of desert Pastoral – agropastoral areas at risk of 15 000 rural food-insecure households locusts (northwest, south-central) desert locusts (north and central) impacted by desert locust 24 000 households at risk, already in IPC2-4 Protecting 300 000 livestock Urgent referrals from ongoing 2 packages to support production and reduce belonging to 15 000 households livelihood programme losses: 3 600 tonnes of range cubes, containing 3 monthly cash transfers (extension) 1) Gu planting package: seeds, tools, services protein, vitamins and minerals and training ahead of Gu 100% Food Minimum Expenditure 2) Gu replanting seed package: released within 20 kg per household (6 bags), Basket (MEB) 2-7 days of locust damage related training and sensitization Transferred through mobile money Bulk-SMS communication with farmers Core livestock fed for 60 days operators or money vendors Production of maize/sorghum, cowpea and vegetables GAPS

• Very few skilled manpower for survey and lack of control operation team for DL • Insufficient equipment for conducting surveys • Lack of Desert Locust Information Officers • Lack of the necessary equipment for DL control • Rehabilitation/construction of DL bases of the Country • Capacity Building for the current very few staff of DL • Lack of National Emergency fund for DL RECOMMENDATIONS

• Early preparation for the control of the newly expected breeding of DL in Gu seaons through collaboration with FMoAI and Member States • Accelarating of re-establishent and functionalising of the NLU of the country • Cooperation with international partners • Allocating National Emergency fund for DL • Raising of the community awareness toward DL THANKS FOR YOUR ATTENTION Desert Locust Ground Information Gathering

A Briefing for FSL Cluster Partners, Mogadishu, 9th March 2020 Background

. The Government of Somalia declared a national emergency on 2 February 2020 due to the Desert Locust (DL) upsurge. . Various efforts are under way to support the government - led response to the DL upsurge in Somalia. . Government surveillance system in place with DL units established in Somaliland, Puntland and Galmudug doing periodic surveys. . The upsurge requires a ground information gathering that will inform various stakeholders on day-to-day level of infestation. . A coordinated and harmonized DL ground information gathering will involve all willing stakeholders with presence in the field. . The information will complement the government DL surveillance system. Objective

• The main objective of this exercise is to have an up to-date information of the DL upsurge in areas at high risk of invasion

• The system can contribute - To prioritize and direct surveillance missions and control efforts, - Identify areas for further DL impact assessments, - Assist in planning livelihood protection and responses interventions How does it work?

• A simple form in the Open Data Kit (ODK) will be used • The form is available in English and Somali. • The form can be opened in any tablet or phone, and will save any submitted data even if off line. • Users will be required to sync their data (eg. Connect to the internet) once a week. • The partner staff will collect the data up on sighting of the DL and sync the data once a week (every Wednesday). • A detailed guide with different stage of locust will be shared with registered partners Desert Locust information Form

1. Date - Select the date of the locust survey or control 2. Location - Type the name of your location 3. Location GPS- Tap on the map or enter GPS decimal coordinates 4. Latitude (x.y °) 5. Longitude (x.y °) 6. Altitude (m) 7. Accuracy (m) 8. Locust type - If Desert Locust are present, select the type(s) i. Hatching ii. Hopper iii. Hopper group iv. Hopper band v. Adult vi. Adult group vii. Immature swarm (pink/red) viii. Mature swarm (yellow) ix. Copulating or laying 9. Hopper Instar - If hoppers are present select the number 10. Area (ha)*- Type the estimated area of survey or control 11. Treated - Indicate if control operations undertaken 12. Comments - Write any other information you have Roll out plan

• Identification of willing cluster and other partners operating in at-risk areas. • Mapping key partners that will participate in DL information gathering to identify areas not covered by partners. • Guidelines prepared using minimum global DL monitoring standard • Uploading instruction and guidance on the application to partner agencies • Setting up complementary information from other sources. (E.g Radio Ergo, UNHCR etc) • Regular data upload, analysis and information sharing on DL situation • Provide technical guidance and support for continuous information gathering. Hopper Instar Locust Type Identification

Type Pictorial Example Type Pictorial Example Hatching Hopper

Hopper Hopper Group Band

Adult Adult Group

Thank you Likely Impact of Desert Locust and Flooding on Food Security Outcomes in Somalia

A Briefing for Somalia Food Security Cluster Partners 9 March 2020, Mogadishu Desert Locust Infestation, Impact and Outlook

• Thus far, damages to Current Situation (February 2020) Forecast (March-June 2020) pasture has been limited and localized. However, the risk to both pasture and crops in 2020 (Gu and Deyr) remains high and critical given the ever expanding areas affected, continued hatching and formation of hoppers and swarms.

• As of February 2020: • Northwest: Breeding occurred between Lughaye and Bulhar (near Burao) and hopper bands formed near Berbera and immature and mature adult groups are laying eggs near Burao • Northeast: immature swarms observed in Garowe • Central: Scattered hoppers, adults and immature adult groups observed between Galkayo and Beletweyne

• The latest forecast from FAO indicates that an increasing number of immature swarms are likely to form in some parts of the country, some of which could move further southwards while others are likely to remain in areas that are favorable and mature.

• Another generation of breeding is expected to occur on the northwest plateau, giving rise to further hopper bands Likely Desert Locust Damages in Somalia during the 2020 Gu Season

Locust damages will likely be mostly confined to a buffer zone along the Somalia/Ethiopia and Somalia/Kenyan borders

These are areas that have one or more of the following characteristics: • They have already experienced or are likely to experience Desert Locust infestation, upsurge • Desert Locust breeding sites have been confirmed or suspected (likely) • Are adjacent to an area where there have been significant Desert Locust infestation and no adequate control.

Desert Locust Impact analyzed separately for Pastoral, Agropastoral/Riverine and Rural IDP populations Desert Locust and Flood Damages in Somalia during the 2020 Gu Season Rural Livelihoods Most Likely Scenairo (Localized to moderate damage) Pastoral livelihoods • Localized to moderate depletion of pasture in the affected pastoral areas (10-30%) • Abnormal livestock migration in the most affected areas • 5-30% pastoral HHs unable to cope on their own

Agro pastoral and • Localized to moderate Gu season crop loss in affected areas Riverine livelihoods • 20-50% Gu season cereal harvest loss due to Desert Locust • 5-30% Gu season cereal harvest loss due to flooding (in riverine areas) • 10-30% agropastoral HHs unable to cope on their own

Rural IDPs • 10-30% Rural IDP HHs unable to cope on their own

Populations in Urban Little or no impact as food prices are expected to remain stable due to above Areas average 2019 Deyr harvest and likely near average 2020 Gu harvest Estimated Likely Impact on 2020 Gu Season Production

Description Metric Tons 1995-2019 Gu/Karan season average production 152,000 2020 Gu/Karan season likely production loss due to Desert Locust (10-15%) 19,000 2020 Gu/Karan season likely production loss due to flooding (5-10%) 11,000 2020 Gu/Karan season likely production loss due to Desert Locust & flooding (15-25%) 30,000 Estimated 2020 Gu/Karan Season production after loss (15-25%) 122,000

2020 Gu/Karan season likely production loss due to (1) Desert Locust in infested areas and (2) flooding in riverine areas:  30 000 tons of production loss, which could cover the food requirements of 444 000 people for 6 months

In Somalia, annual consumption of cereal grains per person per year is estimated at 135 kg (i.e. 67.5kg for 6 months). Most Likely Food Security Outcomes: February-September 2020 Current (Feb 2020) Projection (Feb-May 2020) Projection (Jun-Sep 2020)

People in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) People facing Crisis (IPC Phase 3) People facing Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and Emergency (IPC Phase 4): and Emergency (IPC Phase 4): and Emergency (IPC Phase 4): 1.15 Million 1.51 Million 1.61 Million Most Likely Food Security Outcomes: February-September 2020

People in People in People in People in People in People in Crisis Minimal Stressed Crisis Emergency Stressed, Crisis & & Emergency (IPC Phase 1) (IPC Phase 2) (IPC Phase 3) (IPC Phase 4) Emergency Timeframe Current (Feb 2020) 8,321,000 2,855,000 961,000 190,000 1,151,000 4,006,000 Projection (Feb-May 2020) 7,932,000 2,889,000 1,256,000 250,000 1,506,000 4,395,000 Projection (Jun-Sep 2020) 7,807,000 2,910,000 1,353,000 257,000 1,610,000 4,520,000 Likely number of people in need of urgent humanitarian assistance (i.e. people facing Crisis/IPC Phase 3 and Emergency/IPC Phase 4):  February 2020 = 1.15 million people  February to May 2020 = 1.5 million people  June to September 2020 = 1.6 million people

A worst-case scenario would be realized in the event that the Gu rainfall forecast fails and more widespread locust infestation leading to significant crop losses on the national level and earlier-than-normal depletion of pasture in many pastoral areas. In this case, a larger national cereal deficit and associated rise in staple food prices, coupled with the loss of household income and high atypical livestock migration, would likely lead to an additional, 15-25 percent increase in the population in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) or Emergency (IPC Phase 4). The Stressed (IPC Phase 2) population would likely increase by an additional 5 percent. Thank you

www.fsnau.org and www.fews.net Population group affected

Population Population % group

Pastoral 1,724,192 66% Agro-pastoral 543,046 21% Riverine 40,703 2% IDPs (rural) 304,455 12% 2,612,396

21% of Somalia's population (pastoralist, agro-pastoralist and riverine and IDPs ) 2 in 10 affected by DL COMPARISONS OF ACUTE FOOD INSECURITY POST DYER AND RECENT FOOD SECURITY OUTLOOK

Post dyer (April-June Most Likely 2 (Jun-Sep 2020 projection) 2020) Population group IPC 3 and 4 IPC 2 PIN IPC 3 and 4 IPC 2 PIN IPC 3 & 4 IPC 2

IDPs Urban 585,316 809,074 1,394,390 585,319 809,073 1,394,392

IDPs rural 32,087 110,742 142,829 58,340 113,808 172,148 26,253 3,066

Rural 324,504 1,026,176 1,350,680 609,202 1,070,636 1,679,838 284,698 44,460

Urban 355,693 895,824 1,251,517 355,697 895,822 1,251,519

Total 1,297,600 2,841,816 4,139,416 1,608,558 2,889,339 4,497,897 311,000 48,000 FSC PRIORITIES

1. Address acute food security needs of affected population To sustain positive gains of the post dyer result and emerging need as result • desert locust impact • Flood 2. Livelihoods protection Support DL and flood affected population to sustain their livelihoods (agricultural and livestock production).

GU season (main production season) and expected to be favorable despite the challenge of the DL. This priority was not well reflected in the 2020 HRP PEOPLE IN NEED AND TARGETS (APRIL– SEPTEMBER 2020) * Based PEOPLE on IPC Compatible product of food security outlook outlook of likely most product food security June Compatible on IPC IN

Food Security Cluster http://fscluster.org/somalia NEED livelihoods livelihoods the seasonality of vulnerabilityand phases, insecurity severityfood the of on assistance depending unconditional and conditional provision throughof immediate access food to households’ Improve rural and ruraland in technical support and inputs appropriate livelihood sources income and relatedfood restore and Protect livelihoods, Livelihood Seasonal Inputs ( Agriculture & Livestock)(Agriculture Inputs SeasonalLivelihood Improved Access to Food and Safetyandto FoodImproved AccessNets (IASN) the community and household levels household and community the productivedisasterassets and preparednessat rehabilitation restorationthe throughand/or of shocks future and current resilience against Build Livelihood Assets (LA)AssetsLivelihood CLUSTER STRATEGIC OBJECTIVE peri - urban settings urban , through provision of seasonally seasonally , provision throughof 4.5 Coordinators: MIL* [email protected] . - Sep 2020 data data 2020 Sep (100% in IPC Phase 2, 3 Phase in 2, IPC (100% • • • • • • Livestock • • • • • • • Agriculture ; 50% stressed of urban population stressedurban 50% of 50%stressed rural of population population stressedIDP 50% of [email protected] 25% in in stressed 25% IDP of rural in stressed 50% for pastoral & agropastoral and in crisisemergency100% for pastoral &agro pastoral population 100 100 100 25 50 100 5 % % % % % % % stressed in in in in in in stressed stressed crisis emergency catastrophe, catastrophe, of and for urban TARGETLOGIC of and 4) and emergency IDP riverine and emergency emergency population rural crisis & agro for of WFP/Firstname Lastname riverine rural and pastoral and crisis population crisis & agro of of IDPs urban pastoral Outlook, Somalia Source: FEWSNET/FSNAU 1,655,504 1,455,102 FSC 518,580 FSCTARGETS 992,071 Food Security