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Tropical Storm Imelda eVENT Hurricane Tracking Advisory Tropical Storm Imelda Information from NHC Advisory 2, 4:00 PM CDT Tue Sept 17, 2019 On the forecast track, the center of Imelda will continue to move farther inland across eastern Texas tonight and Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Imelda is expected to weaken to a tropical depression as it moves farther inland. Intensity Measures Position & Heading Landfall (NHC) Max Sustained Wind 40 mph Position Relative to 30 mi W of Galveston TX Speed: (tropical storm) Land: 30 mi SSE of Houston TX Today, west of Est. Time & Region: Galveston TX Min Central Pressure: 1006 mb Coordinates: 29.3 N, 95.3 W Trop. Storm Force Est. Max Sustained 40 mph 45 miles Bearing/Speed: N or 360 degrees at 7 mph Winds Extent: Wind Speed: (tropical storm) Forecast Summary ■ The NHC forecast map (below left) and the wind-field map (below right), which is based on the NHC’s forecast track, both show Imelda moving farther inland across eastern Texas tonight and Wednesday. To illustrate the uncertainty in Imelda’s forecast track, forecast tracks for all current models are shown on the wind-field map in pale gray. ■ Imelda is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 6 to 12 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 18 inches across the upper coastal region of Texas, including the Houston and Galveston areas. Rainfall amounts of 4 to 6 inches with isolated totals of 10 inches are possible across portions of southeast Texas and southwest Louisiana through Thursday. This rainfall may produce significant to life-threatening flash floods. ■ Tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area this afternoon and evening. Forecast Track for Tropical Storm Imelda Forecast Wind-field for Tropical Storm Imelda © Copyright 2019 Willis Limited / Willis Re Inc. All rights reserved: No part of this publication may be reproduced, disseminated, distributed, stored in a retrieval system, transmitted or otherwise transferred in any form or by any means, whether electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise, without the prior written permission of Willis Limited / Willis Re Inc. Some information contained in this document may be compiled from third party sources and Willis Towers Watson Hazard and damage potential maps (as defined below) does not guarantee and is not responsible for the accuracy of such. This document is for general information only and is not intended to be relied upon. 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The user is strongly cautioned to recognize that natural hazards modeling and analysis are subject to many uncertainties. These uncertainties include, but are not limited to, the uncertainties inherent in weather and climate, incomplete or inaccurate weather data, changes to the natural and built environment, limited historical records, and limitations in the state of the art of modeling, as well as limits to the scientific understanding of storm weather phenomena. Anyone making use of the hazard and impact information provided by KAC, or the information contained within, assumes all liability deriving from such use, and agrees to "hold harmless" any and all agencies or individuals associated with its creation. The user agrees to provide any subsequent users of this data with this disclaimer. The publication of the material contained herein is not intended as a representation or warranty that this information is suitable for any general or particular use. Coastal Watches and Warnings A Tropical Storm Warning – meaning that tropical storm conditions are expected within the watch area, in this case within the next few hours - is in effect for the coast of Texas from Sargent to Port Bolivar. Summary of Atlantic Hurricane Activity to Date Benchmarking the 2019 Atlantic Season to Date 2019 Activity versus Average Activity for the years 1950 – 2011 Tropical Total Cat 3-5 12 Tropical Storm avg '50‐'11 Tropical Storm 2018 Storms Hurricanes Hurricanes Hurricane avg '50‐'11 Hurricane 2018 Major Hurricane avg '50‐'11 Major Hurricane 2018 2019 year to date (1/1/19 – 09/17/19) 9 3 1 TS Imelda 2018 year to date (1/1/18 – 09/17/18) 10 5 1 8 TS Humberto 1995-2011 season average 14.7 7.9 3.8 TS Gabrielle TS Fernand 1950-2011 season average 10.7 6.2 2.7 TS Erin TS Dorian 2019 CSU season forecasts 14 7 2 4 TC Chantal HU Humberto (Colorado State University at Aug 5,‘19) TC Barry HU Dorian 2019 NOAA season forecasts 10-17 5-9 2-4 HU Barry ST Andrea M HU Dorian (NOAA/CPC at Aug 8, 2019) 0 May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Tropical Storm Activity to Date 2019 Tropical Storm Activity versus Average Activity Imelda is the ninth named storm of the 2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season. The graph above shows 2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season activity and Last year saw ten named storms by September 17, including average occurrence rates since 1950 by date, category and order. It Hurricanes Beryl, Chris, Florence, Helene, and Isaac. shows, for example, that Imelda became the season’s ninth named storm on September 17. It also shows the average season has 10.7 tropical storms, 6.2 hurricanes and 2.7 major hurricanes (categories 3-5). New Tropical Cyclone Potential and Most Likely Arrival Time of Tropical Storm Force WiFive Day d Tropical Weather Outlook Most Likely Arrival Time of Tropical-Storm-Force Winds The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane The graphic below shows the most likely arrival time of tropical storm force Humberto, located about 500 miles west of Bermuda, on Tropical winds - the time before or after which the onset of tropical-storm-force winds Depression Ten, located more than 1000 miles east of the Leeward is equally likely. It also shows probabilities of sustained (1-minute average) Islands, and on newly formed Tropical Storm Imelda, located near surface wind speeds equal to or exceeding 34 kt (39 mph) for the next five Freeport, Texas. days. This graphic is based on the official National Hurricane Center (NHC) track, intensity, and wind radii forecasts, and on NHC forecast error statistics 1. A tropical wave is forecast to move off of the west coast of Africa on for those forecast variables during recent years. Thursday. Some gradual development will be possible over the weekend while the system moves generally westward at 10 to 15 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. 1 Contact us Roy Cloutier Ryan Vesledahl Mahesh Shinde roy.cloutier@ willistowerswatson.com ryan.vesledahl@willistowerswatson.com Mahesh.Shinde@willistowerswatson.com 2 .
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