Hurricane Outlook 2020: Weather Disruption In Uncertain Times
Dan Kottlowski and Becky DePodwin How ON24 Webinars Work
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Slides Toolbar Question: What's your biggest concern during hurricane season? Becky DePodwin Dan Kottlowski
Meteorologist, Senior Meteorologist Emergency Preparedness Specialist Lead Hurricane Forecaster
2018: Received AMS Award for 2018: Chosen by the NHC as a panelist Exceptional Specific Prediction during the Florida Governor’s Conference Hurricane Preparedness for Business
Becky DePodwin | Meteorologist Product Training & Support Coordinator Assessing Your Organization's Preparedness
+ Determine hazards your location is most vulnerable to during a hurricane
+ Review past events to determine improvements that could be made
+ Perform a vulnerability assessment of all equipment, processes and operations Address Vulnerabilities Early
+ Talk with your insurance providers to ensure that you have the necessary types of coverage
+ Coordinate your preparedness activities with vendors, supply chain members, and local partners
+ Create a company-wide playbook for tropical systems that addresses operational vulnerabilities AccuWeather RealImpact™ Scale for Hurricanes
+ Saffir-Simpson ranks storms from 1-5 accounting only for wind and doesn't account for rain or surge impacts
+ Expand weather threat analysis beyond initial storm landfall; river flooding can persist for days following
+ Include contingencies for extreme situations, like record-breaking rainfall amounts or tornado outbreaks Tropical Storm Imelda
+ Saffir Simpson: Tropical Storm
+ AccuWeather RealImpact™: 4 + Wind: <1 + Rain: 4 + Surge: <1 Hurricane Season + COVID-19
+ This will not be a “typical” hurricane season
+ Considerations to add into your EAP:
+ Business continuity when employees are working from home
+ Geographical dispersion of staff in the event of an evacuation
+ Ensure employees are personally prepared
+ Onsite operational needs
+ Community response and aid Summary: Hope is not a plan Tropical Expertise, Products & Services Situational Awareness Available Anywhere Storm Track and Intensities Enhanced Reporting for Tropical
+ New reporting platform for 2020 hurricane season
+ Easily view hazard impact for each asset location
+ View asset-specific start and end times for storm- related winds
+ Combine custom weather criteria with your metadata on a per location basis
+ Business-focused impact discussions written by meteorologists
+ Downloadable CSV allows you to perform more comprehensive analysis Be prepared for Hurricane Season 2020
+ Team of expert meteorologists monitoring your specific assets; 1:1 client consulting
+ Easy to use tools that help you understand potential weather impacts
+ Actionable weather information before you know you need it 2020 Atlantic Basin Pre-Season Hurricane Forecast
Dan Kottlowski | Lead Hurricane Forecaster
Atlantic Basin Hurricane Forecast Team | Paul Pastelok, Jason Nicholls, Bob Smerbeck, Rob Miller, Paul Walker, Dan Pydynowski, Tyler Roys, Randy Adkins, David Samuhel U.S. Billion Dollar Weather Disasters
Hurricane Dorian Aug/Sept $1.6CI
Southern & Eastern South & Southeast Tornadoes April $1.3CI Arkansas River Severe Weather Texas Tornadoes & Flooding May $1.5CI Central Severe Weather Tropical Storm Imelda Spring $3.0CI Sept $5.0CI Oct $1.7CI Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast for 2020 March 23
Named Storms Hurricanes Major Hurricanes ACE Direct Impacts
2019 18 6 3 129 3
2020 Forecast 14-20 7-11 4-6 130-170 4-6
Normal 12 6 3 106 3.5 2020 Atlantic Basin Pre-Season Forecast
Key factors that will influence this season:
+ El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)
+ Vertical wind shear
+ Combination of near-normal to lower-than- normal shear
+ Warm sea-surface temperatures (SST) Neutral Phase of ENSO
+ 48% chance of Neutral ENSO Most Active conditions during August, September and October, the most active part of the hurricane season U.S. Climate Model Forecast of Vertical Wind Shear
22 Sea-Surface Temperature Anomaly
• SST on average are above normal in the main developmental region • • SST are higher than normal in the Gulf of Mexico and sub-tropical Atlantic
23 Sea-Surface Temperature Anomaly
+ Main development region of the Atlantic basin has been averaging above normal since early January
+ A slight drop in temperature is due to stronger than normal east winds causing upwelling of cooler water from below the ocean surface SST Anomaly Forecast
+ SST Anomaly Forecast for the most active part of the Atlantic hurricane season suggests above normal SST values across much of the Atlantic basin
25 Hurricane Development Factors Comparison
2019 Influence 2020 Influence
Wind shear 1.5 km - 12 km Low + Low +
Sea-surface temperature Above + Above +
Surface pressure Low + Low +
E. wind flow in the lower 1.5 km Normal + Normal +
Degree of low to mid-level moisture Above + Above +
+ = Positive Influence - = Negative Influence 0 = No Influence ENSO-based Analog Years
Year Tropical Storms Hurricanes Major Hurricanes ACE Landfalls U.S. Impacts
1952 11 5 2 69 3 S FL, 2SC
SE TX, SE LA, S FL 1959 14 7 2 77 6 W FL Pan, 2SC
1978 12 5 2 63 2 S TX, SW LA
1980 11 9 2 149 2 S TX, E TX
S Cent & SE TX, 2003 16 7 3 177 6 LA, NC
3 FL, 2 LA, 2 MS 2005 28 15 7 250 8 SE TX/SW LA,
Average 15 8 3 131 5 28 What Analog Years Tell Us
+ Where have tropical cyclones made landfall during analog years? + Solely based on the current and future trend of ENSO + Greatest potential for direct impacts will be: ＋ Western and northern Gulf of Mexico
＋ Florida
＋ Carolina coasts
ENSO: Comparing 2019 to 2020
ENSO in 2019 + Weak El Nino + Early higher than normal shear transitioned to lower than normal as season progressed
Expected ENSO in 2020 + Current Neutral ENSO pattern to continue through the summer + Early season: shear values are expected to average near normal + Rest of season: shear values below normal—favorable pattern for storm development Sea Surface Temperature: Comparing 2019 to 2020
SST in 2019 + SST values above normal
Expected SST in 2020 + Current SST values — above normal over Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico + SST values expected to remain above normal during most active part of the season + The projected SST values expected above normal during most active part of the season + Regions of deep, warm water — favorable for rapid intensification and development of four to six major hurricanes In Summary – 2020 Hurricane Season
+ Above-normal numbers of tropical storms and hurricanes
+ Potential to become hyper-active with more than 20 tropical storms
+ Analog years suggest a good chance for multiple impacts on the U.S. mainland
+ All residents and interests along the U.S. coast should be fully prepared for a direct impact; this includes Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands
+ Have and review your hurricane plan As the 2020 Season Progresses
+ Specifics are still difficult to determine at this time
+ Island and coastal areas should always prepare
+ Climate models can be misleading in determining long term trends in ENSO pattern
+ Hurricane season forecast update on or around July 1
+ Additional updates if necessary on or around August 1 and September 1 Thank You [email protected] | [email protected] [email protected]