Hurricane Humberto

eVENT Hurricane Tracking Advisory

Hurricane Humberto Information from NHC Advisory 21, 5:00 PM EDT Tue Sept 17, 2019 On the forecast track, the center of Humberto is expected to pass just to the northwest and north of Bermuda Wednesday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next 36 hours, and Humberto could become a major hurricane late tonight or on Wednesday.

Intensity Measures Position & Heading Landfall (NHC) Max Sustained Wind 105 mph Position Relative to 450 mi W of Bermuda Wednesday night, Speed: (Category 2) Land: Est. Time & Region: bypassing north of Min Central Pressure: 960 mb Coordinates: 31.0 N, 72.3 W Bermuda

Trop. Storm Force Est. Max Sustained 100+ mph 175 miles Bearing/Speed: ENE or 75 degrees at 12 mph Winds Extent: Wind Speed: (Category 2)

Forecast Summary ■ The NHC forecast map (below left) and the wind-field map (below right), which is based on the NHC’s forecast track, both show Humberto approaching Bermuda through Wednesday night. To illustrate the uncertainty in Humberto’s forecast track, forecast tracks for all current models are shown on the wind- field map in pale gray. ■ Hurricane conditions are expected to reach Bermuda by Wednesday night and continue into early Thursday morning. Winds are expected to first reach tropical-storm strength by Wednesday afternoon, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. ■ Humberto may bring periods of heavy rain to Bermuda beginning today, with rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches and isolated maximum amounts near 6 inches expected. ■ Storm surge and wave setup could raise water levels by 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate southern coast of Bermuda.

Forecast Track for Hurricane Humberto Forecast Wind-field for Hurricane Humberto

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Coastal Watches and Warnings A Hurricane Warning – meaning that hurricane conditions are expected within the watch area within 36 hours - is in effect for Bermuda.

Summary of Atlantic Hurricane Activity to Date Benchmarking the 2019 Atlantic Season to Date 2019 Activity versus Average Activity for the years 1950 – 2011 Tropical Total Cat 3-5

Storms Hurricanes Hurricanes 2019 year to date (1/1/19 – 09/17/19) 9 3 1

2018 year to date (1/1/18 – 09/17/18) 10 5 1

1995-2011 season average 14.7 7.9 3.8

1950-2011 season average 10.7 6.2 2.7 2019 CSU season forecasts 14 7 2 (Colorado State University at Aug 5,‘19) 2019 NOAA season forecasts 10-17 5-9 2-4 (NOAA/CPC at Aug 8, 2019)

Tropical Storm Activity to Date 2019 Tropical Storm Activity versus Average Activity Humberto is the eighth named storm of the 2019 Atlantic Hurricane The graph above shows 2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season activity and Season and Imelda is the ninth. Last year saw ten named storms by average occurrence rates since 1950 by date, category and order. It September 17, including Hurricanes Beryl, Chris, Florence, Helene, shows, for example, that Humberto became the season’s eighth named and Isaac. storm on September 14. It also shows the average season has 10.7 tropical storms, 6.2 hurricanes and 2.7 major hurricanes (categories 3-5).

New Tropical Cyclone Potential and Most Likely Arrival Time of Tropical Storm Force WindsFive Day Tropical Weather Outlook Most Likely Arrival Time of Tropical-Storm-Force Winds The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane The graphic below shows the most likely arrival time of tropical storm force Humberto, located about 500 miles west of Bermuda, on Tropical winds - the time before or after which the onset of tropical-storm-force winds Depression Ten, located more than 1000 miles east of the Leeward is equally likely. It also shows probabilities of sustained (1-minute average) Islands, and on newly formed Tropical Storm Imelda, located surface wind speeds equal to or exceeding 34 kt (39 mph) for the next five near Freeport, Texas. days. This graphic is based on the official National Hurricane Center (NHC) track, intensity, and wind radii forecasts, and on NHC forecast error statistics 1. A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa for those forecast variables during recent years. on Thursday. Some gradual development will be possible over the weekend while the system moves generally westward at 10 to 15 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

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