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Hurricane Humberto eVENT Hurricane Tracking Advisory Hurricane Humberto Information from NHC Advisory 21, 5:00 PM EDT Tue Sept 17, 2019 On the forecast track, the center of Humberto is expected to pass just to the northwest and north of Bermuda Wednesday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next 36 hours, and Humberto could become a major hurricane late tonight or on Wednesday. Intensity Measures Position & Heading Landfall (NHC) Max Sustained Wind 105 mph Position Relative to 450 mi W of Bermuda Wednesday night, Speed: (Category 2) Land: Est. Time & Region: bypassing north of Min Central Pressure: 960 mb Coordinates: 31.0 N, 72.3 W Bermuda Trop. Storm Force Est. Max Sustained 100+ mph 175 miles Bearing/Speed: ENE or 75 degrees at 12 mph Winds Extent: Wind Speed: (Category 2) Forecast Summary ■ The NHC forecast map (below left) and the wind-field map (below right), which is based on the NHC’s forecast track, both show Humberto approaching Bermuda through Wednesday night. To illustrate the uncertainty in Humberto’s forecast track, forecast tracks for all current models are shown on the wind- field map in pale gray. ■ Hurricane conditions are expected to reach Bermuda by Wednesday night and continue into early Thursday morning. Winds are expected to first reach tropical-storm strength by Wednesday afternoon, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. ■ Humberto may bring periods of heavy rain to Bermuda beginning today, with rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches and isolated maximum amounts near 6 inches expected. ■ Storm surge and wave setup could raise water levels by 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate southern coast of Bermuda. Forecast Track for Hurricane Humberto Forecast Wind-field for Hurricane Humberto Ï!D Trop Dep Ï!S Trop Storm 1 Ï! Ca t 1 2 Ï! Ca t 2 3 Ï! Ca t 3 4 Ï! Ca t 4 5 Ï! Ca t 5 NH C track NHC CAT_ID TD TS Ca t 1 Ca t 2 Ca t 3 Ca t 4 Ca t 5 Watch/WarnTS Watch !D Trop De p All Fcst Tracks Ï al972016_multimod_atcf Ï!S Trop Storm 1 Ï! Ca t 1 © Copyright 2019 Willis Limited / Willis Re Inc. All rights reserved: No part of this publication may be reproduced, disseminated, distributed, stored in a retrieval system, transmitted or otherwise transferred in any form or by any means, whether electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise, without the prior written permission of Willis Limited / Willis Re Inc. Some information contained in this document may be compiled from third party sources and Willis Towers Watson Hazard and damage potential maps 2 (as defined below) does not guarantee and is not responsible for the accuracy of such. This document is for general information only and is not intended to be relied upon. Any action based on or in connection with anything contained herein produced by Willis are based on numerical! Ca t 2 should be taken only after obtaining specific advice from independent professional advisors of your choice. The views expressed in this document are not necessarily those of Willis Limited / Willis Re Inc., its parent companies, sister companies, Ï subsidiaries or affiliates, Willis Towers Watson PLC and all member companies thereof (hereinafter collectively, “Willis Towers Watson”). Willis Towers Watson is not responsible for the accuracy or completeness of the contents herein and modeling results from Kinetic Analysis expressly disclaims any responsibility or liability, based on any legal theory, for damages in any form or amount, based upon, arising from or in connection with for the reader's application of any of the contents herein to any analysis or other Corporation. 3 matter, or for any results or conclusions based upon, arising from or in connection with the contents herein, nor do the contents herein guarantee, and should not be construed to guarantee, any particular result or outcome. Willis Towers Watson Ï! Ca t 3 accepts no responsibility for the content or quality of any third party websites that are referenced. The TAOS real-time hazard and impact forecast information is provided "as is" and without warranties as to performance or any other warranties whether expressed or implied. The user is strongly cautioned to recognize that natural hazards !4 modeling and analysis are subject to many uncertainties. These uncertainties include, but are not limited to, the uncertainties inherent in weather and climate, incomplete or inaccurate weather data, changes to the natural and built environment, Ï Ca t 4 limited historical records, and limitations in the state of the art of modeling, as well as limits to the scientific understanding of storm weather phenomena. Anyone making use of the hazard and impact information provided by KAC, or the information contained within, assumes all liability deriving from such use, and agrees to "hold harmless" any and all agencies or individuals associated with its creation. The user agrees to provide any subsequent users of this data with this disclaimer. The publication of the material contained herein is not intended as a representation or warranty that this information is suitable for any general or particular use. 5 Ï! Ca t 5 NH C track NHC CAT_ID TD TS Ca t 1 Ca t 2 Ca t 3 Ca t 4 Ca t 5 All Fcst Tracks Coastal Watches and Warnings A Hurricane Warning – meaning that hurricane conditions are expected within the watch area within 36 hours - is in effect for Bermuda. Summary of Atlantic Hurricane Activity to Date Benchmarking the 2019 Atlantic Season to Date 2019 Activity versus Average Activity for the years 1950 – 2011 Tropical Total Cat 3-5 Storms Hurricanes Hurricanes 2019 year to date (1/1/19 – 09/17/19) 9 3 1 2018 year to date (1/1/18 – 09/17/18) 10 5 1 1995-2011 season average 14.7 7.9 3.8 1950-2011 season average 10.7 6.2 2.7 2019 CSU season forecasts 14 7 2 (Colorado State University at Aug 5,‘19) 2019 NOAA season forecasts 10-17 5-9 2-4 (NOAA/CPC at Aug 8, 2019) Tropical Storm Activity to Date 2019 Tropical Storm Activity versus Average Activity Humberto is the eighth named storm of the 2019 Atlantic Hurricane The graph above shows 2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season activity and Season and Imelda is the ninth. Last year saw ten named storms by average occurrence rates since 1950 by date, category and order. It September 17, including Hurricanes Beryl, Chris, Florence, Helene, shows, for example, that Humberto became the season’s eighth named storm on September 14. It also shows the average season has 10.7 and Isaac. tropical storms, 6.2 hurricanes and 2.7 major hurricanes (categories 3-5). New Tropical Cyclone Potential and Most Likely Arrival Time of Tropical Storm Force WindsFive Day Tropical Weather Outlook Most Likely Arrival Time of Tropical-Storm-Force Winds The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane The graphic below shows the most likely arrival time of tropical storm force Humberto, located about 500 miles west of Bermuda, on Tropical winds - the time before or after which the onset of tropical-storm-force winds Depression Ten, located more than 1000 miles east of the Leeward is equally likely. It also shows probabilities of sustained (1-minute average) Islands, and on newly formed Tropical Storm Imelda, located surface wind speeds equal to or exceeding 34 kt (39 mph) for the next five near Freeport, Texas. days. This graphic is based on the official National Hurricane Center (NHC) track, intensity, and wind radii forecasts, and on NHC forecast error statistics 1. A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa for those forecast variables during recent years. on Thursday. Some gradual development will be possible over the weekend while the system moves generally westward at 10 to 15 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. Contact us Roy Cloutier Ryan Vesledahl Mahesh Shinde roy.cloutier@ willistowerswatson.com [email protected] [email protected] +1 (952) 841-6652 +1 (952) 841-6672 2 .
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