, 1{28 Is the Solar System stable ? Jacques Laskar ASD, IMCCE-CNRS UMR8028, Observatoire de Paris, UPMC, 77 avenue Denfert-Rochereau, 75014 Paris, France
[email protected] R´esum´e. Since the formulation of the problem by Newton, and during three centuries, astrono- mers and mathematicians have sought to demonstrate the stability of the Solar System. Thanks to the numerical experiments of the last two decades, we know now that the motion of the pla- nets in the Solar System is chaotic, which prohibits any accurate prediction of their trajectories beyond a few tens of millions of years. The recent simulations even show that planetary colli- sions or ejections are possible on a period of less than 5 billion years, before the end of the life of the Sun. 1. Historical introduction 1 Despite the fundamental results of Henri Poincar´eabout the non-integrability of the three-body problem in the late 19th century, the discovery of the non-regularity of the Solar System's motion is very recent. It indeed required the possibility of calculating the trajectories of the planets with a realistic model of the Solar System over very long periods of time, corresponding to the age of the Solar System. This was only made possible in the past few years. Until then, and this for three centuries, the efforts of astronomers and mathematicians were devoted to demonstrate the stability of the Solar System. arXiv:1209.5996v1 [astro-ph.EP] 26 Sep 2012 1.1. Solar System stability The problem of the Solar System stability dates back to Newton's statement concerning the law of gravitation.