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ISIS Blitzes Baghdad to Stoke Sectarian War

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ISIS Blitzes Baghdad to Stoke Sectarian War 8 June 5, 2016 News & Analysis Iraq ISIS blitzes Baghdad to stoke sectarian war Ed Blanche circle Baghdad before mounting a major assault on the city. Then, as now, this should not have come Beirut as a big surprise. In 2014, ISIS’s war minister was no less than Nasser here is a gut-wrenching al Din Allah Abu Suleiman, one of sense of déjà vu amid the ISI’s top leaders when the plan was wave of suicide bombings drawn up. the Islamic State (ISIS) The current assault on Baghdad, has unleashed across particularly on Sadr City, a run- TBaghdad in recent weeks, killing down district in eastern Baghdad about 600 people, almost all of that has long been a Shia strong- them civilians, and wounding hun- hold, strongly suggests the pres- dreds more. ence of ISIS sleeper cells inside the It is the third such terror on- capital. slaught on the Iraqi capital in a decade and its aim is to trigger sec- The current assault on tarian warfare that will divert the Baghdad, particularly US-backed Iraqi Army from its drive on Sadr City, strongly to recapture the northern city of Mosul, taken by ISIS in June 2014 suggests the presence and its most treasured prize. of ISIS sleeper cells This barbaric strategy was de- inside the capital. vised and put into action by Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, the Jordanian Sadr City was the vortex of mur- street thug-turned-Islamist who derous jihadist assaults in 2006-07 created ISIS’s forerunner, al-Qaeda intended to trigger reprisals against in Iraq, which morphed into the Is- Sunni and ignite sectarian warfare. lamic State of Iraq (ISI) in 2013. That seems to be the intent in the “Zarqawi’s plan was to seize latest wave of attacks as well. control of the outer provinces and ISIS is increasingly using coordi- Baghdad’s Belts or key areas sur- nated suicide bombings in its cur- rounding the capital,” explained rent onslaught against civilians in analyst Bill Roggio of the Long War Baghdad, as it is having to do in Journal, which monitors global ter- Syria and other parts of Iraq as its rorism. caliphate comes under increasing An Iraqi security vehicle is pictured through a shattered windshield of a vehicle damaged at the site “The ISI would then use its bas- pressure from US-backed forces, of a bomb attack in Baghdad’s northern Shaab Shia district, on May 30th. es in the belts to control access to and in Syria, Russian air power. Baghdad and funnel money, weap- Safa Hussein al-Sheikh, a veteran on March 24th, depends on Abadi’s network of eight trucking highways is already high and easily ignited. ons, car bombs and fighters into the of Iraq’s sectarian conflicts who is government not withdrawing forc- that bring potential bomb-carrying The crisis has been worsened by city. The ISI also planned to stran- the Baghdad government’s deputy es from that front to beef up Bagh- vehicles into Baghdad from every the prospect of economic calamity gle the US helicopter air lanes by national security adviser, said by dad’s security. point of the compass… (T)he adja- because of the collapse in oil pric- emplacing anti-aircraft cells along committing these atrocities ISIS He estimated that about half the cent rural districts — the Baghdad es that slash the salaries of Iraq’s known routes in the belts around aims “to spread out the security Iraqi military’s combat forces are Belts — are the key to the problem… bloated state sector — 7 million peo- Baghdad.” forces so it can get superiority in deployed around the capital, where If bombers need to be sure of pas- ple on a payroll that costs $4 billion numbers in one particular sector”. Abadi is hanging on by his finger- sage, they learn how to bribe their a month. During the wave of He estimates that despite its nails against a popular uprising way through checkpoints,” he said. Sectarian conflict is clearly one suicide bombings setbacks, ISIS can muster 20,000- against a corrupt and inept govern- If ISIS can sustain its blitz — and of the primary objectives of the unleashed in Baghdad 30,000 hardcore fighters, sup- ment made up of rival leaders who experts such as Knights say there is ISIS bombing campaign, as it was in recent weeks, the ported by another 40,000-50,000 have plundered the country since no reason they cannot — Abadi will in 2004-07, when al-Qaeda in Iraq, Islamic State (ISIS) has personnel who are less experienced the Americans poured in billions of be under intense pressure to pull in ISIS’s forerunner, controlled much killed 600 people. and ideologically committed. dollars in aid funds after toppling more troops to counter bombings of the Baghdad Belts and were able Sheikh estimates that 85% of these Saddam Hussein in 2003, a failure that are primarily targeting civil- to operate a network of car-bomb operate in Iraq. of the state that ISIS is also exploit- ians in Shia-dominated quarters of factories inside the capital and ter- Zarqawi’s campaign in 2006 The Americans are concerned ing to the hilt. However, there is no the city, predominantly the densely rorise the Shias, who responded wrought great damage and destruc- that Iraqi Prime Minister Haider let-up in the attacks. populated Sadr City and the ancient with atrocities of their own. tion but it fell apart after he was al-Abadi will put regime survival Suicide bombers still get through northern district of Kadhimiya, at ISIS and those who lead it are killed in a US air strike on one of his above the national interest and re- — although that may have a lot to whose centre stands one of Shia skilled in exploiting sectarian dif- hideouts north of Baghdad in June inforce security around the capital, do with the army still using British- Islam’s holiest shrines, and to head ferences to their advantage and the of that year. Indeed, US forces only shifting the focus away from mass- made ADE-651 explosives-detec- off a sectarian bloodbath. latest iteration of Zarqawi’s Bagh- learned about the Baghdad belts ing forces to recapture Mosul, the tion wands that were proven to be Sadr City, a teeming slum of dad Belts plan may well succeed — strategy when they found a crude, ISIS nerve centre in Iraq. useless three years ago. about 2 million, largely poor Shias, particularly if Abadi’s government, hand-drawn map of the plan on his US Army Colonel Steve Warren, Iraq specialist Michael Knights, people long neglected and shunned already teetering on the brink of body. the US military spokesman in Bagh- who recently visited Baghdad, not- by the corruption-riddled patron- collapse, finally disintegrates, more Jihadists sought to resurrect the dad, acknowledged on May 13th ed that the capital’s perimeter runs age system that controls life in Iraq, than likely marking the end of an strategy in 2013-14 in a drive to en- that the push on Mosul, launched for 70km “and sits at the centre of a is explosive because resentment Iraqi unitary state. Mosul dam rupture: Jigsaw puzzle haunting Iraq Nermeen Mufti It also pointed to growing US the Mosul dam reservoir and trans- Another Mosul resident, Abu Trevi Group to reinforce the dam’s frustration with Baghdad’s deni- ferring it to the nearby Thirthar Gerges, said he has “no choice, gypsum foundation, which may als of imminent danger stemming dam to ease pressure on Mosul but to stay in Mosul” because “we have dissolved or cracked from the Baghdad from the dam, 48km north-west dam’s walls. have no place to go”. stored water since the dam was of Mosul, Iraq’s second largest city, Along the banks of the Tigris, A Mosul dam engineer told The inaugurated in 1983 and became S warnings of the pos- which is controlled by ISIS. Iraqis expressed fear over their fate Arab Weekly that authorities “in- fully operational in 1987. sible collapse of Iraq’s A briefing paper released by the should the dam go bust. jected cement to cover holes and Trevi said it will take four largest dam are caus- US Embassy in Baghdad in Febru- “We’re worried over the dam’s cracks in the dam’s bed to an al- months to prepare the work site. ing concern across the ary said that 500,000 to 1.47 mil- collapse more than ISIS ruling us,” titude of 130 metres to bolster a The 3.5km hydroelectric dam faces country, despite Bagh- lion Iraqis living in the highest-risk said Abu Yunis, a Mosul resident weak foundation, prevent more its highest risk in April, May and Udad’s repeated assurances that areas along the Tigris river “prob- who spoke to The Arab Weekly by leaks and stop the dam’s gypsum June when melting snow causes there is no imminent threat of the ably would not survive” the flood telephone. “We may be able to es- and limestone walls from dissolv- rising water levels. Mosul dam failing. caused by the dam collape unless cape from ISIS by staying at home ing”. Grouting to reinforce the dam The extent of US concern was the area was evacuated. but we will be killed in a tsunami- However, Ahmed al-Mufty, who was suspended when ISIS con- highlighted in January in a letter It said a wall of water greater than like flood no matter what we tried worked on the dam more than a trolled the dam for two weeks in from US President Barack Obama to 14 metres tall would swamp Mosul to do.
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