R. Srinivasan Prasad Daggupati Deepa Varma
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R. Srinivasan Prasad Daggupati Deepa Varma Outline • Development of SWAT model in Tigris-Euphrates basin • Hydrological analysis of flow in Tigris and its tributaries (including Karkheh river flowing from Iran) feeding to Hawizeh marsh • Analysis and implications of dams/water control structures Introduction The Tigris Euphrates River Basin • Area: 879790 km2 - largest basin in the Middle East • Tigris: 304000 km2 • Euphrates: 503900 km2 • Karun: 71800 km2 Euphrates Basin Tigris Basin* Country % Area % Flow % Area % Flow Turkey 21 98.5 18 53 Syria 17 1.5 0.2 - Iran - - 30 5.9 Hawizeh Mash Iraq 49 - 53 40.7 Saudi Arabia 13 - - - * Data excludes Karun basin Feeds Hawizeh Turkey Landuse Marsh Landuse SWAT categories Area (KM2) Area (KM2) % Watershed BROADLEAF FOREST 119809 Forest NEEDLELEAF FOREST 1 119844 15% EVERGREEN FOREST 12 MIXED FOREST 21 SHRUBLAND 309298 Syria Iraq Shrubland 500608 62% BAREN/SPARSLY VEGETATED 191310 Iran Agricultural Land-Row Crops 181515 Agriculture 183270 23% RICE 5 Agricultural Land-Generic 1750 Urban Residential-Medium Density 6858 6931 1% Residential-Low Density 73 Water WATER 2486 2486 0% Wetlands Wetlands-Non-Forested 1073 1073 0% Overview of Tigris river, tributaries and water structures feeding Hawizeh marsh Upper Zone until Iraq border Proposed dam Current dam 1 Legend tigris_dams 2 <all other values> Type Û Barrage !( Dam 3 #* Dam Under Construction $+ Planned Dam Û Regulator +$ planned dam Middle Zone until Bagdad 1 2 Legend tigris_dams <all other values> Type 3 Û Barrage !( Dam #* Dam Under Construction $+ Planned Dam Û Regulator +$ planned dam Lower Zone until Hawizeh Marsh 1 Legend tigris_dams <all other values>2 Type Û Barrage !( Dam #* Dam Under Construction $+ Planned Dam 3 Û Regulator +$ planned dam Downstream Tigris after Bagdad until Tigris Hawizeh Marsh Kutt Kutt barrage – Kutt barrage diverts water to Shat Al-Gharaf canal especially for irrigation Al Musharah & Al Kahlaa • Final set of observed flow Amarah Karkheh data available after kutt Ammara barrage Betarra Al Al – Before Ammara barrage • Tigris river diverts water Tigris to 2 branches – Al- Eraidh (700cms) and Al Berata (700cms) to feed central marshes – At Ammara barrage, • Tigris river divides into 3 Ammara branches – 2 branches (Al- Musharah(150cms) and Al-Kahlaa(477cms) feeds into Al- Hawizeh marsh – 1 branch (360cms) heads towards Basra where it meets Euphrates Image source: Nature iraq report Methods SWAT model development Data inputs • Watershed characterization – DEM • Resolution: 90 ×90 m • 940 subbasins in TU basin – 408 in Tigris, 454 in Euphrates, 78 in Karun – Landuse landcover • Resolution: 100 ×100 m Subwatersheds • Global landuse(based on year 2000) used – Manual editing to make sure spatial extent of agricultural fields are represented correctly (Appendix 2) – Soils • FAO soils used • Resolution: 1:5,000,000 – Slope • 0-5% (67% of watershed), 5-12% (9% of watershed)and >12% (23% of watershed) – Weather Weather • Streams Global weather data @ 40 by 40 KM resolution DEM – Daily data for 32-year period from 1979 to 2010 Subbasins – 1272 weather stations in the river basin – HRU delineation Landuse • 5/12/10% thresholds for landuse, soil, slope Soils – All agricultural lands were exempt • Finally 9088 HRU’s in TU basin Appendix 1 gives information on SWAT model Dams Water control structures Euphrates Tigris Karun Total Dams 14 11 3 28 Planned dams 2 10 3 15 Dams under construction 0 1 3 4 Barrage/regulators 4 5 0 9 Total Dams 16 22 9 47 Total Barrage/regulators 3 5 0 8 Tigris 1950 - 1971 1980- 1990- 2000- 2011 - basin 1970 -1979 1989 1999 2010 2020 3 1 2 4 1 11 Tigris Basin Water control Euphrates Tigris Karun structures in Total Euphrates Basin country current planned current planned current planned Turkey 7 2 4 7 0 0 20 Karun Basin Syria 6 0 0 0 0 0 6 Iraq 4 0 11 4 0 0 19 Iran 0 0 1 0 3 6 10 LegendTotal 17 2 16 11 3 6 55 tigris_dams <all other values> Type• Dam operational information Û Barrage• Start date, Surface area, volume, operational logistics !( Dam #* Dam Under Construction• Wikipedia and other cited literature $+ Planned• DamManual adjustments needed to be made Û Regulator +$ planned dam • Some data in Wikipedia were wrong • Eg. Surface area of Tartar lake 2800 Sq.KM, however observation on aerial image shows 1800 Sq.KM More information on dams is presented in appendix 3 Calibration • Statistical and graphical evaluation Gauge station R2 NSE PBIAS Greater Zab upstream (1982-1990)* 0.67 0.65 9 R2 > 0.6 ---> good NSE > 0.5 ---> good Greateer Zab downstream (1982 –1990) 0.67 0.65 10 Pbias < 1 5%---> good Lesser Zab upstream (1982-1990) 0.71 0.64 -25 Diyala upstream((1982-1990) 0.68 0.62 14 * Time period of calibration based on best observed data available without data interruptions Karkheh below reservoir (1990 -1999) 0.68 0.62 14 Tigris below Mosul dam (1985-1994) 0.51 0.5 -13 Monthly average (cms) Monthly Standard Deviation (cms) Tigris before Samara barrage (1985-1994) 0.71 0.7 10 Measured Simulated Measured Simulated Tigris above Bagdad (1985-1994) 0.37 0.09 8 688.8 616.7 303.4 367.7 461.2 524.2 351.2 395.8 Tigris below Kutt barrage (1989-2001) 0.72 0.2 -14 (1100mcm) (1300mcm) (900mcm) (1000mcm) 1800 2000-2010 simulated – 800mcm 1600 Observed Simulated Linear (Simulated) 1400 1200 1000 Greater Zab upstream (t7) 800 600 400 Streamflow (m3/s) 200 0 10/1/19… 12/1/19… 11/1/19… 10/1/19… 12/1/19… 11/1/19… 10/1/19… 12/1/19… 11/1/20… 10/1/20… 12/1/20… 11/1/20… 8/1/1982 3/1/1983 5/1/1984 7/1/1985 2/1/1986 9/1/1986 4/1/1987 6/1/1988 1/1/1989 8/1/1989 3/1/1990 5/1/1991 7/1/1992 2/1/1993 9/1/1993 4/1/1994 6/1/1995 1/1/1996 8/1/1996 3/1/1997 5/1/1998 7/1/1999 2/1/2000 9/1/2000 4/1/2001 6/1/2002 1/1/2003 8/1/2003 3/1/2004 5/1/2005 7/1/2006 2/1/2007 9/1/2007 4/1/2008 6/1/2009 1/1/2010 8/1/2010 4000 1/1/1982 3500 3000 Observed Simulated Linear (Simulated) 2500 2000 Tigris below Kutt barrage (t7) 1500 1000 Streamflow (m3/s) 500 0 10/1/19… 12/1/19… 11/1/19… 10/1/19… 12/1/19… 11/1/19… 10/1/20… 12/1/20… 11/1/20… 10/1/20… 12/1/20… 1/1/1985 8/1/1985 3/1/1986 5/1/1987 7/1/1988 2/1/1989 9/1/1989 4/1/1990 6/1/1991 1/1/1992 8/1/1992 3/1/1993 5/1/1994 7/1/1995 2/1/1996 9/1/1996 4/1/1997 6/1/1998 1/1/1999 8/1/1999 3/1/2000 5/1/2001 7/1/2002 2/1/2003 9/1/2003 4/1/2004 6/1/2005 1/1/2006 8/1/2006 3/1/2007 5/1/2008 7/1/2009 2/1/2010 9/1/2010 Results • Flow into Hawizeh marsh from Karkheh River Karkheh from marsh Hawizeh into Flow Flow (cms) 1000 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 0 1/1/1982 9/1/1982 5/1/1983 1/1/1984 9/1/1984 5/1/1985 Flow without Karkheh dam 1/1/1986 mcm 5900 2500 ha, 9/1/1986 5/1/1987 1/1/1988 9/1/1988 5/1/1989 1/1/1990 9/1/1990 5/1/1991 1/1/1992 9/1/1992 Karkheh flow 5/1/1993 1/1/1994 9/1/1994 5/1/1995 Average monthly flow (mcm) 1/1/1996 9/1/1996 5/1/1997 1/1/1998 9/1/1998 5/1/1999 1/1/2000 9/1/2000 5/1/2001 Exceedance% 1/1/2002 9/1/2002 5/1/2003 1/1/2004 9/1/2004 5/1/2005 1/1/2006 9/1/2006 5/1/2007 1/1/2008 9/1/2008 5/1/2009 1/1/2010 9/1/2010 Annual Water budgets in 80’s Kutt Barrage Tigris Tigris Tigris Average 80’s 22000 Low 80’s 7500 High 80’s 28000 Mosul Mosul Mosul 27000 9000 37000 12000Greater zab 5500 Greater zab 16000 Greater zab 7000 Lesser Zab 1500 Lesser Zab 11000 Lesser Zab Tartar Tartar Tartar 47000 16000 64000 5000 1000 11000 Samarra barrage Samarra barrage Samarra barrage 42000 15000 53000 Bagdad Bagdad Bagdad 3500 Diyala 2000 Diyala 5000 Diyala Kutt barrage Kutt barrage Kutt barrage 40000 16000 53000 Amarah Karkheh Karkheh Betarra Betarra Betarra Al Al Al Al Al All numbers above are average annual flow volume in mcm Nature Iraq report: 5000, 4000, 2500 mcm to reflood 75, 50 and 25% with evaporative demand of 3000, 2000, 1500 mcm and with constant outflow of 2000 mcm Annual Water budgets in 90’s until Kutt Barrage Tigris Tigris Tigris Average 90’s 15000 Low 90’s 2500 High 90’s 23000 Mosul Mosul Mosul 19000 6000 29000 8000 Greater zab 3400 Greater zab 6000 Greater zab 4000 Lesser Zab 800 Lesser Zab 5000 Lesser Zab Tartar Tartar Tartar 31000 9000 40000 9000 1000 14000 Samarra barrage Samarra barrage Samarra barrage 22000 8000 26000 Bagdad Bagdad Bagdad 2800 Diyala 1000 Diyala 1800 Diyala Kutt barrage Kutt barrage Kutt barrage 18000 7000 22000 Amarah Karkheh Karkheh Betarra Betarra Betarra Al Al Al Al Al All numbers above are average annual flow volume in mcm Nature Iraq report: 5000, 4000, 2500 mcm to reflood 75, 50 and 25% with evaporative demand of 3000, 2000, 1500 mcm and with constant outflow of 2000 mcm Annual Water budgets in 2000’s Kutt Barrage Tigris Tigris Tigris Average 2000’s 8000 Low 2000’s 6000 High 2000’s 13000 Mosul Mosul Mosul 9000 5500 16000 4000 Greater zab 3000 Greater zab 6500 Greater zab 1000 Lesser Zab 350 Lesser Zab 2000 Lesser Zab Tartar Tartar Tartar 14000 9000 24000 4000 2000 8000 Samarra barrage Samarra barrage Samarra barrage 10000 7000 16000 Bagdad Bagdad Bagdad 1200 Diyala 600 Diyala 2000 Diyala Kutt barrage Kutt barrage Kutt barrage 8000 5000 13000 Amarah Karkheh Karkheh Betarra Betarra Betarra Al Al Al Al Al Nature Iraq report: 5000, 4000, 2500 mcm to reflood 75, 50 and 25% with All numbers above are average annual flow volume in mcm evaporative demand of 3000, 2000, 1500 mcm and with constant outflow of 2000 mcm AnnualTigris Water budgetsTigris below KuttTigris Barrage Percentage based on channel capacities Kutt barrage Kutt barrage Kutt barrage 40000 16000 53000 High 80’s Average 80’s Low 80’s 60% 24000 9600 31800 Amarah 25% Amarah Amarah 10000 5000 Karkheh 4000 4300 Karkheh 13250 6000 Karkheh Betarra Betarra Betarra Al Al Al Al Al 15% 6000 2400 7950 Kutt