R. Srinivasan Prasad Daggupati Deepa Varma

R. Srinivasan Prasad Daggupati Deepa Varma Outline • Development of SWAT model in Tigris-Euphrates basin • Hydrological analysis of flow in Tigris and its tributaries (including Karkheh river flowing from Iran) feeding to Hawizeh marsh • Analysis and implications of dams/water control structures Introduction The Tigris Euphrates River Basin • Area: 879790 km2 - largest basin in the Middle East • Tigris: 304000 km2 • Euphrates: 503900 km2 • Karun: 71800 km2

Euphrates Basin Tigris Basin* Country % Area % Flow % Area % Flow Turkey 21 98.5 18 53 Syria 17 1.5 0.2 - Iran - - 30 5.9 Hawizeh Mash Iraq 49 - 53 40.7 Saudi Arabia 13 - - - * Data excludes Karun basin Feeds Hawizeh Turkey Landuse Marsh Landuse SWAT categories Area (KM2) Area (KM2) % Watershed BROADLEAF FOREST 119809

Forest NEEDLELEAF FOREST 1 119844 15% EVERGREEN FOREST 12 MIXED FOREST 21 SHRUBLAND 309298 Syria Iraq Shrubland 500608 62% BAREN/SPARSLY VEGETATED 191310 Iran Agricultural Land-Row Crops 181515 Agriculture 183270 23% RICE 5 Agricultural Land-Generic 1750

Urban Residential-Medium Density 6858 6931 1% Residential-Low Density 73 Water WATER 2486 2486 0% Wetlands Wetlands-Non-Forested 1073 1073 0% Overview of Tigris river, tributaries and water structures feeding Hawizeh marsh Upper Zone until Iraq border Proposed dam

Current dam

Legend tigris_dams 2 Type Û Barrage !( Dam 3 #* Dam Under Construction $+ Planned Dam Û Regulator +$ planned dam Middle Zone until Bagdad

2 Legend tigris_dams Type 3 Û Barrage !( Dam #* Dam Under Construction $+ Planned Dam Û Regulator +$ planned dam Lower Zone until Hawizeh Marsh

2 Legend tigris_dams Type 3 Û Barrage !( Dam #* Dam Under Construction $+ Planned Dam Û Regulator +$ planned dam Downstream Tigris after Bagdad until Tigris Hawizeh Marsh Kutt Kutt barrage – Kutt barrage diverts water to Shat Al-Gharaf canal especially for irrigation Al Musharah & Al Kahlaa

• Final set of observed flow Amarah Karkheh data available after kutt Ammara

barrage Betarra Al Al – Before Ammara barrage

• Tigris river diverts water Tigris to 2 branches – Al- Eraidh (700cms) and Al Berata (700cms) to feed central marshes – At Ammara barrage, • Tigris river divides into 3 Ammara branches – 2 branches (Al- Musharah(150cms) and Al-Kahlaa(477cms) feeds into Al- Hawizeh marsh – 1 branch (360cms) heads towards Basra where it meets Euphrates

Image source: Nature iraq report Methods SWAT model development Data inputs • Watershed characterization – DEM • Resolution: 90 ×90 m • 940 subbasins in TU basin – 408 in Tigris, 454 in Euphrates, 78 in Karun – Landuse landcover • Resolution: 100 ×100 m Subwatersheds • Global landuse(based on year 2000) used – Manual editing to make sure spatial extent of agricultural fields are represented correctly (Appendix 2) – Soils • FAO soils used • Resolution: 1:5,000,000 – Slope • 0-5% (67% of watershed), 5-12% (9% of watershed)and >12% (23% of watershed)

– Weather Weather • Streams Global weather data @ 40 by 40 KM resolution DEM – Daily data for 32-year period from 1979 to 2010 Subbasins – 1272 weather stations in the river basin – HRU delineation Landuse • 5/12/10% thresholds for landuse, soil, slope Soils – All agricultural lands were exempt

• Finally 9088 HRU’s in TU basin Appendix 1 gives information on SWAT model Dams Legend Water control structures Euphrates Tigris Karun Total tigris_dams Dams 14 11 3 28 Planned dams 2 10 3 15 Type Dams under construction 0 1 3 4 Û Barrage Barrage/regulators 4 5 0 9 !( Dam Total Dams 16 22 9 47 #* Dam Under Construction Total Barrage/regulators 3 5 0 8 $+ Planned Dam Û Regulator Tigris 1950 - 1971 1980- 1990- 2000- 2011 - +$ planned dam basin 1970 -1979 1989 1999 2010 2020 3 1 2 4 1 11 Tigris Basin Water control Euphrates Tigris Karun structures in Total Euphrates Basin country current planned current planned current planned

Turkey 7 2 4 7 0 0 20 Karun Basin Syria 6 0 0 0 0 0 6 Iraq 4 0 11 4 0 0 19 Iran 0 0 1 0 3 6 10 Total 17 2 16 11 3 6 55

• Dam operational information • Start date, Surface area, volume, operational logistics • Wikipedia and other cited literature • Manual adjustments needed to be made • Some data in Wikipedia were wrong • Eg. Surface area of Tartar lake 2800 Sq.KM, however observation on aerial

image shows 1800 Sq.KM More information on dams is presented in appendix 3 Calibration • Statistical and graphical evaluation Gauge station R2 NSE PBIAS Greater Zab upstream (1982-1990)* 0.67 0.65 9 R2 > 0.6 ---> good NSE > 0.5 ---> good Greateer Zab downstream (1982 –1990) 0.67 0.65 10 Pbias < 1 5%---> good Lesser Zab upstream (1982-1990) 0.71 0.64 -25 Diyala upstream((1982-1990) 0.68 0.62 14 * Time period of calibration based on best observed data available without data interruptions Karkheh below reservoir (1990 -1999) 0.68 0.62 14 Tigris below Mosul dam (1985-1994) 0.51 0.5 -13 Monthly average (cms) Monthly Standard Deviation (cms) Tigris before Samara barrage (1985-1994) 0.71 0.7 10 Measured Simulated Measured Simulated Tigris above Bagdad (1985-1994) 0.37 0.09 8 688.8 616.7 303.4 367.7 461.2 524.2 351.2 395.8 Tigris below Kutt barrage (1989-2001) 0.72 0.2 -14 (1100mcm) (1300mcm) (900mcm) (1000mcm)

1800 2000-2010 simulated – 800mcm 1600 Observed Simulated Linear (Simulated) 1400 1200 1000 Greater Zab upstream (t7) 800 600 400 Streamflow (m3/s) 200

10/1/19… 12/1/19… 11/1/19… 10/1/19… 12/1/19… 11/1/19… 10/1/19… 12/1/19… 11/1/20… 10/1/20… 12/1/20… 11/1/20…

8/1/1982 3/1/1983 5/1/1984 7/1/1985 2/1/1986 9/1/1986 4/1/1987 6/1/1988 1/1/1989 8/1/1989 3/1/1990 5/1/1991 7/1/1992 2/1/1993 9/1/1993 4/1/1994 6/1/1995 1/1/1996 8/1/1996 3/1/1997 5/1/1998 7/1/1999 2/1/2000 9/1/2000 4/1/2001 6/1/2002 1/1/2003 8/1/2003 3/1/2004 5/1/2005 7/1/2006 2/1/2007 9/1/2007 4/1/2008 6/1/2009 1/1/2010 8/1/2010 4000 1/1/1982 3500 3000 Observed Simulated Linear (Simulated) 2500 2000 Tigris below Kutt barrage (t7) 1500 1000 Streamflow(m3/s) 500

10/1/19… 12/1/19… 11/1/19… 10/1/19… 12/1/19… 11/1/19… 10/1/20… 12/1/20… 11/1/20… 10/1/20… 12/1/20…

1/1/1985 8/1/1985 3/1/1986 5/1/1987 7/1/1988 2/1/1989 9/1/1989 4/1/1990 6/1/1991 1/1/1992 8/1/1992 3/1/1993 5/1/1994 7/1/1995 2/1/1996 9/1/1996 4/1/1997 6/1/1998 1/1/1999 8/1/1999 3/1/2000 5/1/2001 7/1/2002 2/1/2003 9/1/2003 4/1/2004 6/1/2005 1/1/2006 8/1/2006 3/1/2007 5/1/2008 7/1/2009 2/1/2010 9/1/2010 Results • Flow into Hawizeh marsh from Karkheh River

2500 ha, 5900 mcm Average monthly (mcm)flowmonthly Average

% Exceedance

1000 900 Flow without Karkheh dam Karkheh flow 800 700 600 500

Flow Flow (cms) 400 300 200 100

1/1/1982 9/1/1982 5/1/1983 1/1/1984 9/1/1984 5/1/1985 1/1/1986 9/1/1986 5/1/1987 1/1/1988 9/1/1988 5/1/1989 1/1/1990 9/1/1990 5/1/1991 1/1/1992 9/1/1992 5/1/1993 1/1/1994 9/1/1994 5/1/1995 1/1/1996 9/1/1996 5/1/1997 1/1/1998 9/1/1998 5/1/1999 1/1/2000 9/1/2000 5/1/2001 1/1/2002 9/1/2002 5/1/2003 1/1/2004 9/1/2004 5/1/2005 1/1/2006 9/1/2006 5/1/2007 1/1/2008 9/1/2008 5/1/2009 1/1/2010 9/1/2010 Annual Water budgets in 80’s Kutt Barrage Tigris Tigris Tigris

Average 80’s 22000 Low 80’s 7500 High 80’s 28000

Mosul Mosul Mosul

27000 9000 37000

12000Greater zab 5500 Greater zab 16000 Greater zab

7000 Lesser Zab 1500 Lesser Zab 11000 Lesser Zab Tartar Tartar Tartar 47000 16000 64000 5000 1000 11000 Samarra barrage Samarra barrage Samarra barrage

42000 15000 53000

Bagdad Bagdad Bagdad 3500 Diyala 2000 Diyala 5000 Diyala

Kutt barrage Kutt barrage Kutt barrage 40000 16000 53000

Amarah

Karkheh Karkheh

Betarra Betarra

Betarra

Al Al Al Al Al

All numbers above are average annual flow volume in mcm Nature Iraq report: 5000, 4000, 2500 mcm to reflood 75, 50 and 25% with evaporative demand of 3000, 2000, 1500 mcm and with constant outflow of 2000 mcm Annual Water budgets in 90’s until Kutt Barrage Tigris Tigris Tigris

Average 90’s 15000 Low 90’s 2500 High 90’s 23000

Mosul Mosul Mosul

19000 6000 29000

8000 Greater zab 3400 Greater zab 6000 Greater zab

4000 Lesser Zab 800 Lesser Zab 5000 Lesser Zab Tartar Tartar Tartar 31000 9000 40000 9000 1000 14000 Samarra barrage Samarra barrage Samarra barrage

22000 8000 26000

Bagdad Bagdad Bagdad 2800 Diyala 1000 Diyala 1800 Diyala

Kutt barrage Kutt barrage Kutt barrage 18000 7000 22000

Amarah

Karkheh Karkheh

Betarra Betarra

Betarra

Al Al Al Al Al

Average 2000’s 8000 Low 2000’s 6000 High 2000’s 13000

Mosul Mosul Mosul

9000 5500 16000

4000 Greater zab 3000 Greater zab 6500 Greater zab

1000 Lesser Zab 350 Lesser Zab 2000 Lesser Zab Tartar Tartar Tartar 14000 9000 24000 4000 2000 8000 Samarra barrage Samarra barrage Samarra barrage

10000 7000 16000

Bagdad Bagdad Bagdad 1200 Diyala 600 Diyala 2000 Diyala

Kutt barrage Kutt barrage Kutt barrage 8000 5000 13000

Amarah

Karkheh Karkheh

Betarra Betarra

Betarra

Al Al Al Al Al

Nature Iraq report: 5000, 4000, 2500 mcm to reflood 75, 50 and 25% with All numbers above are average annual flow volume in mcm evaporative demand of 3000, 2000, 1500 mcm and with constant outflow of 2000 mcm AnnualTigris Water budgetsTigris below KuttTigris Barrage Percentage based on channel capacities Kutt barrage Kutt barrage Kutt barrage 40000 16000 53000 High 80’s Average 80’s Low 80’s 60% 24000 9600 31800

Amarah 25% Amarah Amarah

10000 5000 Karkheh 4000 4300 Karkheh 13250 6000 Karkheh

Betarra Betarra

Betarra

Al Al Al Al Al 15% 6000 2400 7950

Kutt barrage Kutt barrage Kutt barrage 18000 22000 7000 High 90’s Average 90’s Low 90’s

10800 4200 13200 Amarah Amarah Amarah 5500 8000 Karkheh

4500 5000 Karkheh 1750 2500 Karkheh

Betarra

Al Al Al Al 2700 Al 1050 3300

Kutt barrage Kutt barrage Kutt barrage 8000 5000 13000 High 2000’s Average 2000’s Low 2000’s 4800 3000 7800

Amarah Amarah Amarah

2000 900 Karkheh 1250 270 Karkheh 3250 2200 Karkheh

Betarra

Al Al Al Al Al Al 1200 750 1950 Nature Iraq report: 5000, 4000, 2500 mcm to reflood 75, 50 and 25% with All numbers above are average annual flow volume in mcm evaporative demand of 3000, 2000, 1500 mcm and with constant outflow of 2000 mcm Flow intensity, duration, probability below Kutt Barrage

After Kutt barrage Flow diversion into Hawizeh marsh

5000 mcm (416 mcm monthly) 5000 mcm (416 mcm monthly) 4000 mcm (330 mcm monthly)

2000 mcm (208mcm monthly) 2000 mcm (208mcm monthly)

Average monthly (mcm)flowmonthly Average Average monthly (mcm)flowmonthly Average

% Exceedence % Excedence

Tigris

Kutt barrage Flow diversion above Flow of tigris towards Amarah barrage Basra

Amarah

Karkheh

Betarra

Al Al

Average monthly (mcm)flowmonthly Average Average monthly (mcm)flowmonthly Average

% Excedence % Excedence Dams Volume Outflow Future Dams River Country Volume Current Dam (mcm) Inflow (mcm) (mcm) % reduction Evaporation (mcm) evap/vol Taqtaq Lesser Zab Iraq 2858 Batman 1100 1105 874 21% 50 5% Bekhme Greater zab Iraq 8300 Dicile 580 674 659 2% 24 4% Bakeerman Greater zab Iraq 500 Kralkize 1920 342 305 11% 54 3% Mandava Greater zab Iraq 2000 Mosul 11110 18799 17972 4% 416 4% Hakkari Greater zab Turkey 2000 Dokan 6800 5799 4587 21% 309 5% Garzan Trib upper tigris Turkey 145 Dibbis 4000 4953 3932 21% 154 4% Kayser Trib upper tigris Turkey 1970 Hemrin 2500 3318 2670 20% 78 3% Dilini Trib upper tigris Turkey 200 Derbinkhan 3000 3250 2866 12% 142 5% Silvan Karkheh 5900 1978 1086 45% 40 1% Trin upper tigris Turkey 1175 Cizie Upper tigris Turkey 200 Tartar 11000 9000 - - 2260 21% Illisu Upper tigris Turkey 10410 Total 47910 49219 35519 3529 27777 800 6000

700 Dam effects 5000

600

4000 500 Flow out with reservoir Flow out without reservoir 400 Volume with irrigation 3000

Flow (cms) Flow Volume without irrigation

300 Volume(mcm) 2000

200

1000 100

0 0

9/1/2002 5/1/2010 1/1/2000 5/1/2000 9/1/2000 1/1/2001 5/1/2001 9/1/2001 1/1/2002 5/1/2002 1/1/2003 5/1/2003 9/1/2003 1/1/2004 5/1/2004 9/1/2004 1/1/2005 5/1/2005 9/1/2005 1/1/2006 5/1/2006 9/1/2006 1/1/2007 5/1/2007 9/1/2007 1/1/2008 5/1/2008 9/1/2008 1/1/2009 5/1/2009 9/1/2009 1/1/2010 9/1/2010 Current and Post Dams Average 2000’s - Current Average 2000’s – Post dams*

Tigris Tigris 6000 *Assumptions based on current dam sizes, 8000 inflow and outflow calculations

Mosul Mosul 7000 9000 2000 Greater zab 4000 Greater zab 1000 Lesser Zab 1000 Lesser Zab Tartar Tartar 10000 14000 3000 Samarra barrage 4000 Samarra barrage

7000 10000 Bagdad 1000 Bagdad Diyala 1200 Diyala

Kutt barrage Kutt barrage 4000 50% reduction 8000

2400 4800 1000 900 Karkheh 2000 900 Karkheh

Betarra 600 Al Al

Betarra 1200 Al Al Summary • Decreasing trend of flow in tributaries and main stem – 65% and 80% decrease below kutt barrage in 90’s and 2000’s compared to 80’s – 0% and 82% decrease in Karkheh in 90’s and 2000’s compared to 80’s • Decrease mainly due to decrease in rainfall and construction of water structures such as dams and water diversions • 10%, 30 % and 80% of water available to flood the Hawizeh marsh to 75% , 50% and 25% of original size in 2000’s • Current and proposed dams plays a major role in water availability to Hawizeh marsh – Evaporation in current dams is equivalent to water needed to re-flood marshes close to 50% of original size – Karkheh dam reduces flow by 45% – Future dams such as Illusu on Tigris; bekhme, hakkari and mandava on Greater Zab will have huge impacts • Roughly 50% reduction compared to 2000 and 90% compared to 80’s • Proper management of dams, water diversions and irrigation will help in improving water availability to Hawizeh marsh