Advanced Automotive Technology: Visions of a Super-Efficient Family Car September 1995 OTA-ETI-638 GPO stock #052-003-01440-8 Foreword his report presents the results of the Office of Technology Assessment’s analysis of the prospects for developing automobiles that offer significant improvements in fuel economy and reduced emissions over the longer term T (out to the year 2015). The congressional request for this study—from the House Committees on Commerce and on Science, and the Senate Committees on Energy and Natural Resources and on Governmental Affairs-asked OTA to exam- ine the potential for dramatic increases in light-duty vehicle fuel economy through the use of “breakthrough” technologies, and to assess the federal role in advancing the development and commercialization of these technologies. The report examines the likely costs and performance of a range of technologies and vehicle types, and the U.S. and foreign research and development programs for these technologies and vehicles (to allow completion of this study before OTA closed its doors, issues such as infrastructure development and market develop- ment---critical to the successful commercialization of advanced vehicles-were not covered). In particular, the report presents a baseline forecast of vehicle progress in a business-as-usual environment, and then projects the costs and performance of “advanced conventional” vehicles that retain conventional drivetrains (internal combustion engine plus transmission); electric vehicles: hybrid vehicles that com- bine electric drivetrains with an engine or other power source; and fuel cell vehi- cles. OTA has focused on mass-market vehicles, particularly on the mid-size family car with performance comparable to those available to consumers today. Based on our analysis, OTA is quite optimistic that very high levels of fuel economy-up to three times current averages—are technically achievable by 2015; attaining these levels at a commercially viable price will be a more difficult challenge, however. This report is the last in a series on light-duty vehicles that OTA has produced over the past five years. Previous topics include alternative fuels (Replacing Gaso- line: Alternative Fuels for Light-Duty Vehicles); near-term prospects for improving fuel economy (Improving Automobile Fuel Economy: New Standards, New Approaches); and vehicle retirement programs (Retiring Old Cars; Programs To Save Gasoline and Improve Air Quality). OTA also has recently published a more general report on reducing oil use in transportation (Saving Energy in U.S. Trans- portation). OTA is grateful to members of its Advisory Panel, participants in workshops on vehicle safety and technology, other outside reviewers, and the many individuals and companies that offered information and advice and hosted OTA staff on their information-gathering trips. Special thanks are due to K.G. Duleep, who provided the bulk of the technical and cost analysis of technologies and advanced vehicles. ROGER C. HERDMAN Director iii Advisory Panel Don Kash Kennerly H. Digges Mary Ann Keller Chairperson Assistant Director Managing Director Professor of Public Policy National Crash Analysis Office Furman, Selz, Inc. George Mason University Center George Washington University Gunnar Larsson Steve Barnett Vice President of Research Principal Christopher Flavin Volkswagen AG Global Business Network Vice President for Research Worldwatch Institute Marianne Mintz Ron Blum Transportation Systems Senior Auto Analyst Christopher Green Engineer International Union United Director Environmental & Economic Auto Workers General Motors Analysis Section NAO R&D Center Argonne National Laboratories Tom Cackette Chief Deputy Executive Dave Greene Robert Mull Officer Senior Research Staff Director California Air Resources Center for Transportation Partnership for a New Board Analysis Generation of Vehicles Oak Ridge National Ford Motor Co. Malcolm R. Currie Laboratory Chairman Nobukichi Nakamura M-B Resources, Inc. Maurice Isaac Project General Manager Manager Toyota Motors John DeCicco Automotive Technical Senior Research Associate Programs Peter T. Peterson American Council for an GE Automotive Director, Marketing Strategies Energy-Efficient Economy and Product Applications U.S. Steel iv Daniel Roos Owen J. Viergutz Director Executive Engineer Center for Technology, Policy New Generation Vehicles Claude C. Gravatt and Industrial Development Chrysler Corp. Science Advisor Massachusetts Institute of National Institutes of Technology Margaret Walls Standards and Technology Fellow, Energy and Natural U.S. Department of Commerce Rhett Ross Resources Division Sales Manager/Engineer Resources for the Future Barry McNutt Energy Partners Policy Analyst Office of Energy Efficiency Dan Santini and Alternative Fuels Policy Section Manager U.S. Department of Energy Environmental & Economic Analysis Argonne National Laboratories Note: OTA appreciates and is grateful for the valuable assistance and thoughtful critiques provided by the advisory panel members. The panel does not, however, necessarily approve, disapprove, or endorse this report. OTA assumes full responsibility for the report and the accu- racy of its contents. Project Staff Peter D. Blair PRINCIPAL STAFF /ADMINISTRATIVE STAFF Assistant Director Marsha Fenn Industry, Commerce, and Steven Plotkin Office Administrator International Security Project Director Division Tina Aikens Gregory Eyring Administrative Secretary Emilia L. Govan Assistant Project Director Program Director Gay Jackson Energy, Transportation, and Eric Gille PC Specialist Infrastructure Program Research Assistant Lillian Chapman CONTRACTORS Division Administrator Carol Clark Editor Energy and Environmental Analysis, Inc. K.G. Duleep D.E. Gushee D.E. Gushee, Inc. Michael Wang Consultant vi Reviewers John Alic Michael Gage Philip Patterson Office of Technology CALSTART U.S. Department of Energy Assessment John Gully H. Pero Wolfgang Berg Advanced Research Projects European Commission Mercedes Benz Agency M. Salmon General Motors Corp. William Boehly Elizabeth Gunn Office of Technology National Highway Traffic Assessment Ray Smith Safety Administration Lawrence Livermore National S. Yousef Hashimi Laboratory Mark Delucchi Office of Technology Institute for Transportation Assessment Rao Valisetty Studies ALCOA University of California, Davis A. Hayasaka Toyota Robert Williams Kevin Dopart Center for Energy and Office of Technology Daniel A. Kirsch Environmental Studies Assessment Stanford University Princeton University Michael Epstein Paul Komor Robert White U.S. Council for Automotive Office of Technology U.S. General Accounting Research Assessment Office Barry Felrice Adrian Lund Ronald York National Highway Traffic Insurance Institute for General Motors Corp. Safety Administration Highway Safety Karl-Heinz Ziwica BMW Kenneth Freeman Joan Ogden Office of Technology Center for Energy and Environmental Studies Assessment Princeton University Kathleen Fulton Office of Technology Assessment vii workshop Participants Nabih Bedewi Charming Ewing Brian O’Neill National Crash Analysis Office Snell Memorial Foundation Insurance Institute for Center Highway Safety George Washington University Thomas Hartman Automotive Technology George Parker Kennerly Digges ALCOA National Highway Traffic National Crash Analysis Office Safety Administration Center John Melvin U.S. Department of George Washington University General Motors NAO, R&D Transportation Center Leonard Evans Automotive Safety and Health Priya Prasad General Motors NAO, R&D Research Department of Advanced Center Vehicle Systems Engineering Automotive Safety and Health Patrick M. Miller Ford Motor Co. Research MGA Research Corp. Vlll Tom Asmus Siegfried Friedmann Ray Smith Chrysler Corp. BMW AG Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Jeff Bentley Thomas Klaiber Arthur D. Little, Inc. Daimler Benz AG Al Sobey Independent Consultant Christopher E. Borroni-Bird James F. Miller Chrysler Corp. Argonne National Laboratory Ro Sullivan U.S. Department of Energy Rolf Buchheim Timothy Moore Volkswagen AG Rock Mountain Institute Raymond A. Sutula U.S. Department of Energy Andrew F. Burke Larry Oswald University of California at General Motors David Swan Davis University of CA at Davis Institute of Transportation Harold Polz Institute of Transportation Studies Mercedes Benz Studies Alan Cocconi Charles Risch Swathy Swathirajan AC Propulsion, Inc. Partnership for a New General Motors Generation of Vehicles Kenneth Dircks Ford Motor Co. Donald Vissers Ballard Power Systems Argonne National Laboratory Marc Ross Robert Fleming University of Michigan Ronald E. York Ballard Power Systems General Motors Chapter 1 Executive Summary . 4 OTA’S APPROACH 5 OTA’S METHODS . DEALING WITH UNCERTAINTY . 6 OVERVIEW OF RESULTS . 7 Technical Potential . 7 Commercialization Potential . 8 Timing . 9 DETAILED RESULTS . 9 Business as Usual . 10 Advanced Conventional . 10 Electric Vehicles . 11 Hybrid-Electric Vehicles . 13 Fuel Cell Vehicles . 15 PERFORMANCE AND COST OF OTHER TYPES OF LIGHT-DUTY VEHICLES . 17 LIFECYCLE COSTS--WILL THEY OFFSET HIGHER PURCHASE PRICES?.............. 17 EMISSIONS PERFORMANCE . 19 SAFETY OF LIGHTWEIGHT VEHICLES . 21 A NOTE ABOUT COSTS AND PRICES . 22 CONCLUSIONS ABOUT TECHNOLOGY COST AND PERFORMANCE...... 23 THE FEDERAL ROLE IN ADVANCED AUTO R&D . 24 Partnership for a New Generation of Vehicles . 25 U.S. COMPETITIVE POSITION . 25 Leapfrog Technologies . 26 Advanced Conventional Technology= . 26 U.S. R&D PROGRAM . 27 Key Budgetary Changes in FY 1996 . 27 R&D Areas Likely to Require Increased Support in the Future . 28 Future Role of Federal R&D Programs . 30 Conclusions ABOUT R&D . 32 Boxl-1: Reducing Tractive Forces . ..............34 Box1-2: Spark Ignition and Diesel Engines . 36 38 Box1-3: Battery Technologies . Box1-4: Nonbattery Energy Storage: Ultracapacitors and Flywheels . 39 Box1-5: Series and Parallel Hybrids . 40 41 Table l-1 What Happens to a Mid-Size Car in 2005? . ..