Journal of the Eastern Asia Society for Transportation Studies, Vol.13, 2019

Re-orientation of Para-Transit When Confronted by Mass Transit System: An Approach through User’s and Operator’s Perceptions

N.V ASUDEVANa, Ninad GOREb, Rupali ZOPEc, Shriniwas ARKATKARd, Gaurang JOSHIe a,b,cResearch Scholar, Sardar Vallabhbhai National Institute of Technology, - 395007, aE-mail: [email protected] bE-mail: [email protected] cE-mail: [email protected] dAssociate Professor, Sardar Vallabhbhai National Institute of Technology, Surat- 395007, India dE-mail: [email protected] e Professor, Sardar Vallabhbhai National Institute of Technology, Surat-395007, India eE-mail: [email protected]

Abstract: The present paper deals with the role of para-transit system of auto- in fast growing metropolitan city of Surat in Indian state of , when confronted by the city service and bus system. The main objective of the paper is to re-organize the auto-rickshaws systems as feeder to mass transit considering expected shift to transit based on binary logit models with respect to the distance in the influence area. It is observed that the expected shift takes place up to 2km in the buffer area, beyond which it decreases. Furthermore, the para-transit system shows maximum passenger-kilometer within the buffer zone of this 2 km on each side of the trunk route. Interestingly, the present study also reveals that auto- operators are able to maintain their present earnings even after redefining their roles from trunk mode to feeder mode.

Keywords: Para-transit, Binary Logit, Willingness-to-shift, Re-organization, BRT system

1. INTRODUCTION

Urban sprawl and uncontrolled population growth in developing countries result into higher demands in mobility and accessibility which in turn exert immense pressure on services and infrastructure. Public transportation plays a vital role in catering the mobility needs up to a huge extend and seem to be a failure in various developing economies including many Indian cities. More than three-fourth of the total vehicles plying on the urban roads in the country are private modes such as and two-wheelers. It is because of the unreliable and inadequate supply of public transportation system. This ultimately leads into the augmentation of parallel transport services (Intermediate -IPT) like -taxi in , in , van in (Tangphaisankunet al. 2010), tata magic, auto- rickshaw, chakda, , kaduka, maruti omni, phutphut, matador van, tonga etc. in India, for short trips (Kumar et al. 2016; Wright et al. 2014). These systems are acting as trunk systems or in other words they are the primary form of public transport (Finn, 2012). The same scenario was reported in case of many Indian cities as well. Near about 75% of the global auto-rickshaw population is found in India as per study from Mani and Pant (2011). Even though the IPT

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systems are flexible in nature by route and reliable in the time schedule, the combination of private vehicles and IPTs create an adverse effect on the environment by creating noise , air pollution, traffic congestion, road accidents etc. This necessitates the need of proper enforcement measures to control the use of private modes and IPTs in the urban trunk routes. In this context, this paper tried to study the effective re-orientation of para-transit system when confronted with newly implemented mass transit system like public and (BRT) system. The study area is considered for this research work is Surat-a fast growing Indian metropolitan city in the Indian State of Gujarat. As it isessential to understand the travel behaviour of population when a new transport policy or new strategy is implemented, studying the adverse impact of auto-rickshaw trips when confront with public transport also gains importance. Therefore, the objective of this study is to reorganize the para-transit system without affecting the economic conditions of its operators when confronted by the mass rapid transit system.

2. LITERATURE REVIEW

Auto-rickshaws in Indian cities play a vital role in the urban economy being used widespread for various trip purposes with a lower rate compared to taxi or cabs as it has inherent flexibility nature and demand responsiveness (Ferro, 2015). Limitation in control of auto- rickshaw and routes leads sometimes to overcharging and misbehaving towards users (Harding et al. 2016). Moreover, a major contribution to noise pollution, air pollution and traffic congestion in Indian cities are from para-transit systems due to lack of strict regulations and enforcements. Adak et.al. (2016) studied the real-word driving cycles for shared auto- rickshaws which yield high emission factors. Key solutions to reduce the emerging issues are i) reorganization of para-transit system by considering both user’s, as well as operators' perceptions towards the system ii) they would have to formalise their business, or merge into new or existing operator entities in order to participate in the new systems (Schalekampand Behrens, 2010). Schalekamp and Behrens (2013) studied about the offers that have been made to para-transit operators in the city of as a part of reform program in which they would incorporate into the new BRT system. Tangphaisankun et.al. (2010) investigated present choice consideration, influences of personal behavior, and attitudes towards the services of para-transit and public transport on the commuter choice selection in Bangkok. The main reason which discourages to choose either para-transit or public transport or combination of both is the difficulties, risk involved and inconvenience in using these mentioned systems. However, the para-transit services are still taken into consideration by the commuters in Bangkok. In sustainable point of view, mass transportation can be enhanced by designing para- transit system as a feeder to it. Mohaymany and Gholami (2010) developed a methodology used to analyse the possibility of using para-transit to feed mass transit in a region by Ant Colony Optimization Approach. Pan et.al. (2014) developed a two-level optimization model to design the appropriate service area and routing plans for para-transit system. A gravity- based solution heuristic is developed to obtain meta-optimal solutions to the model in a reasonable amount of time. Through sensitivity analysis, the proposed model can also be used to assist transit operators to minimize the operational cost. Del Mistro and Behrens (2015) studied the integration of informal transit system with new BRT system in Cape Town. The individual para-transit operators would be more profitable if they only provided feeder/distribution services. Providing feeder and distribution

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services to new choice passengers attracted to the BRT service may hold promise in this regard. In a nutshell, re-organization of para-transit incorporates challenging tasks and proper attention is necessary while implementing new strategies for strengthening the mass transit. For framing these policies and strategies which would heal the faults of the para-transit system, it is imperative to understand the operational characteristics of para-transit system in a broad way. Very limited studies are carried out in Indian cities about operational and behavioral characteristics of para-transit systems. Extensive research work that addresses the various issues faced by para-transit users and operators are necessary to frame sustainable transport policies.

3. DESCRIPTION OF THE STUDY AREA AND DATA COLLECTION

Surat is one of the fastest growing cities in India located on the western sea coast. Surat city has been experiencing rapid growth in population with a decadal growth rate of 55.29% as per census 2011. Average annual growth rate of Surat city is 4.5% against National average annual growth of urban population of 2.8%. Population of Surat in 2011 is 4,466,826 with a density of 13680persons/km2. At present, the vehicular population in Surat city is about 2.4 million with an average growth rate of 35% (RTO Surat, 2015). About 90% of the total vehicle consists of private vehicles like two-wheelers and four-wheelers. The city suffers from inadequate Public Transport System with a modal share of less than 1%, against the desired share of 40% to 60%. Insufficient Public Transit System in the city over more than a decade has led to rapid growth of two-wheeler and three-wheeler vehicles, thereby inducing propensity towards usage of private vehicle for performing trips. This has indeed resulted into problems like traffic congestion, delay, lack of safety and security etc. About a lakh auto-rickshaws are plying on the city roads with a modal share of 4%. In direction to achieve the desired objective, the study area is confined to urban areas of Surat city. To apprehend the existing characteristics of para-transit operators, para-transit users and BRT users,para-transit operator survey, para-transit user survey as well as on board BRT survey was conducted across the city. A well-designed questionnaire was prepared for all the three surveys and the responses were captured and noted at the time of interview. Both revealed as well as stated preference questions were asked in all three types of surveys. Para-transit operator survey aims to get the detailed operational characteristics of auto-rickshaws whereas user survey intended to get the auto-rickshaw passenger behavior. On board BRT survey was useful for availing perceptions of public transport usage directly from the passengers travelling in that system. Two important characteristics were obtained from on board BRT survey; i) whether the passengers are ready to use auto-rickshaw as a feeder to BRT? If so, upto what distance? ii) if auto- rickshaw is not considered as a feeder, what are the other likely modes of access to BRT system. Secondary data regarding BRT system was collected from SITILINK, a special purpose vehicle (SPV), which manages BRT System under Surat Municipal Corporation. Around 280 samples were collected from para-transit users; 265 samples from para-transit operators and 150 samples from on board BRT survey. The surveys were conducted in the day time from morning 8 am to evening 7 pm even on holidays also, in order to effectively captures the travel pattern of both working members and school going children who use auto- rickshaws and BRT system.The survey spanned over three months from March, 2016 to May, 2016.

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4. PRELIMINARY ANALYSIS

In order to re-organize the para-transit system through which the revenue generation for the operators will be balanced, it is important to understand the existing socio-economic conditions of users and operational characteristics of para-transit system. Therefore, preliminary analysis was carried out in three stages; operational characteristics of para-transit obtained from its operators, travel characteristics of para-transit users, and functional characteristics of BRT system. Each of them is explained in further section of the article.

4.1 Operational Characteristics of Para-Transit

As mentioned, the black hooded three-wheelers have become the lifeline for the city residents in the absence of an effective public mass transportation for the past many years. Auto- rickshaws are running in two fashions in Surat city; one is sharing basis which provides different destinations for different passengers on a single route; and the second is the private trip which carries a single party (destination will be common for all the passengers) and the route will be decided by them itself but the structure will be normally higher than that of shared trip for the same trip length. From the operator survey, it is understood that the drivers of para-transit are belonging to middle- or lower-income groups as shown in Figure 1. About 50% of the operators are earning in between INR (Indian Rupee) 15000 and INR 20000 in a month and about 33% are earning income below INR 15000 per month. More than half of the drivers are working 8 to 12 hours in a day with average daily trips of 13. Very few drivers working more than 12 hours in a day and around 30% are running only 5 to 8 hours in a day and is shown in Figure 2.

2% 1% 1%

16% 31%

49%

<5000 INR 10000-15000 INR 15000-20000 INR 20000-25000 INR 25000-30000 INR >30000 INR

Figure 1. Monthly income distribution of drivers Other operational characteristics such as average trip length in a day, average operational hours, running time and idle time in a day of para-transits are given in Table 1. The fuel cost depends on different factors like maintenance, operation time and operation type. Most of the auto-rickshaws are running on (CNG). This is because of the cheaper rate compared to petrol/diesel and the widespread availability of the clean fuel (Kumar, 2016). The fuel cost is more for more aged vehicles, over running vehicles and para-transit vehicles carrying goods also.

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>12hrs 4%

5-8hrs 30%

8-12hrs 66%

Figure 2. Operating hours of para-transit operators

The operational hours have three categories i.e. peak hours, off-peak hours and peak plus off-peak hours. The operating hours in peak time and peak plus off-peak time are found to be same. The use of Global Positioning System (GPS) and its implementation in three- wheeler were asked to the drivers and the responses were noticed. The interesting finding is the negligence behavior of operators towards the installation of GPS.The reason is of the additional expense for the purchase of the equipment which helps to find the routes that already familiar to them. However, most of the drivers areunaware of the advantage and safety aspects of GPS system. Another query was about the installation of fare meter as no auto-rickshaws in Surat city are running on meter basis. Almost 65% of the drivers are ready to install fare meter. Moreover, they wanted to avail the space for dedicated auto-parking as the city lacks proper auto-rickshaw parking shelters.

Table1. Operational Characteristics of Para-transit Parameter Value Average Daily km travelled (km) 104 Average trip length (km) 7.8 Average Daily trips 13 Average Daily Operational Hours (hrs) 10 Running time (%) 87 Idle Time (%) 13 Average daily Fuel cost for Rent-Driver (INR) 266 Average daily rent (INR) 165 Average daily Fuel cost for Driver as owner (INR) 264

4.2 Analysis of Para-transit User Survey

As para-transit system acts like a trunk system in all main city routes with the demand responsive nature, people from various economic background are using auto-rickshaws as their mode of transport for their short trips. About one-fourth of the people who use auto- rickshaw are belonging to monthly income in between INR 15000 and 20000. Remaining three-fourth of the trips are equally shared by other monthly income groups as shown in Figure 3. The majority of the para-transit passengers work in private sector among work trips.

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About 45% of the total auto-rickshaw trips are used for work trips, 13% of the tips for educational trips, about 25% trips for social and recreational purpose as shown in Figure 4. It strongly corroborates the scenario that the usage of para-transit as the main system instead of a public transport system. Figure 5 provides detail regarding the access distance to para-transit from their origin of trip. About 57% of the travellers reach to the auto-rickshaw within 200m; about 26% travellers need to walk in between 200m and 500m to catch the auto-rickshaw. Moreover, Figure 6 illustrates the waiting time of para-transit users to start a ride. About 64% travellers need to wait less than 5min for auto-rickshaw; 33% passengers need to wait in between 5 and 10min. The waiting time is because of the delay by driver to wait for more passengers as it is a sharing-based trip.Even though the waiting time is higher, passengers are ready to wait as the travel cost is lesser compared to private trip. Over charging by the driver for a trip is one of the most crucial problem faced by many users.It happens when driver refuses to start the meter, or bargains for a fixed rate. This is common scenario all over India and is illegal (Harding et al. 2016).

19% 19%

18% 18%

26%

<7500 INR 7500-15000 INR 15000-20000 INR 20000-30000INR >30000 INR

Figure 3. Income distribution of users

15%

45% 19%

8% 13%

Work Education Recreation Social Other

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Figure 4. Purpose wise trip Distribution of users

60 57

50

40

30 26

Percentage 20 12 10 5

0 <200m 200-500m 500m-1km >1km Walking Distance

Figure 5. Walking Distance of passengers

70 64 60 50

40 33

30 Percentage 20

10 3 0 <5min 5-10min >10min Waiting time (min)

Figure 6. Waiting time of para-transit users

Even though the trips by auto-rickshaws are convenient and cheaper, passengers are willing to shift to public transport as far as the safety and comfort is concerned. The stated preference data was used to get the response related to willingness-to-shift to public transport for developing mode shift model.

4.3 Operational Characteristics of BRT System

Surat Municipal Corporation with the help of SITILINK Company has implemented Bus Rapid Transit System of a total of 102km across the city as part of the sustainable development project. A total of 8 dedicated routes were constructed with three phases connecting major hotspots. Bus stops are constructed on an average of 500m distance with advanced facilities. Hi-tech articulated buses are used for the safe and comfortable ride, having the seating capacity of 34 including driver and standing capacity of 40. Total fleet size is around 104 with an average speed of a bus as 25kmph. Operating hours of BRT is of 16hrs per day starting from 6 am and ends at 10 pm. The frequency of the buses is varying from 4 to

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10 with ranging from 6 min to15 min based on passenger demand in almost all corridors. Distance based fare system is implemented with a minimum fare of INR 4 for first 2 km and a maximum of INR 22. In order to get the response from the passengers who use BRT, On-board survey has been carried out in a major stretch; Udhna-Sachin corridor; which consists of a total length of 20km. It is observed that the passengers are more comfortable, and they feel safe by travelling in BRT, also they perceive it as reliable and cheaper; all these substantiate the attracting nature towards BRT. To strengthen the mass transit, it is required to know about the mode choice behavior of people who presently use para-transit as trunk system. The complete shift to BRT is not recommended as it decreases the ridership of auto-rickshaw. Therefore, the desired objective is to shift those travellers to BRT in such a way that travellers must be able to use auto- rickshaw as feeder service. Development of Binary Logit model helps us to predict the shifting behavior of travelers from auto-rickshaw to BRT.

5. RE-ORGANIZATION OF PARA-TRANSIT BY DEVELOPING BINARY LOGIT MODEL

Factors like monthly income, age, gender, purpose of trips, mode of travel, travel cost, travel time, comfort level, convenience to access to the mode etc. influences the modal shift behaviour of travellers from their existing mode to new mode (Minal and Ravi-Sekhar, 2016). This is portrayed by developing mode shift model based on the available choices (Discrete choices) and the utility maximization theory because discrete choice model is one of the most important tools for mode shift modelling(Chen, 2013). Utility (U) of a travel mode can be defined as the attraction associated by a person who makes a specific trip (Minal and Ravi- Sekhar, 2014). Based on the revealed and stated preference data obtained from para-transit user survey, operator survey and on-board BRT survey, Logistic regression model is developed that predicts the shifting behavior from auto-rickshaw to BRT in such a manner that auto-rickshaw act as feeder to BRT system. The utility associated with a particular mode consists of deterministic part (V) and a random part (ε) as given in equation 1; which is assumed to be a linear form (Koppelman and Bhat, 2006). The travel parameters like travel time, travel cost; individual parameter like age, gender etc. along with some other parameters such as mobility limitations, personality, lifestyle and neighborhood factors constitute the deterministic part, and the random part of utility equation takes care of unobserved impacts (Schwanen and Mokhtarian, 2005). More precisely, utility of shift can be considered as the difference between utilities of public transport and existing mode and it must be positive (Arasan and Vedagiri, 2011).

푈푑𝑖푓푓 = 푉푑𝑖푓푓 + 휀푑𝑖푓푓 (1)

The term휀푑𝑖푓푓 is considered as the unobservable components of the utility equation and is assumed that it follows IID (Independent and Identically Distributed) Gumbel Type -I distribution (Anas, 1981; Barff, 1982; Hensher and Rose, 2007; Liu, 2007; Ho and Hensher, 2016; Ding and Zhang, 2016). Calibration of utility function through Binary Logistic regression is carried out with 70% data using SPSS 20.0 platform, for two different travel alternatives. The predictor variables adopted for calibrating the model are travel cost (TC), travel time (TT), waiting time (WT) at BRT bus stops, and finally Access distance (AD) to BRT stops. Waiting Time (WT) and Access Distance (AD) are considered as the mode specific variable as it belongs to BRT

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system only. Choice variables to the Binary Logit model are ‘willingness to shift to BRT using auto-rickshaw as feeder’ (coded as 1), and ‘not willing to shift to BRT’ (coded as 0).

Therefore, the deterministic term Vdiff can be defined as given in equation 2;

푉푑𝑖푓푓 = 훼0 + (훼1 ∗ 푋1) + (훼2 ∗ 푋2) + ⋯ + (훼푛 ∗ 푋푛) (2) Also, the probability to shift to BRT can be considered as,

푉 푒 푑푖푓푓 푃푠ℎ𝑖푓푡 = 푉 (3) 1+ 푒 푑푖푓푓 Where, 푃푠ℎ𝑖푓푡 = Probability to shift from para-transit to BRT 푉푑𝑖푓푓 = Deterministic part of difference in utility function of BRT and para-transit 훼1, 훼2. . . 훼푛 = Parameters to be estimated X1, X2.. Xn = The difference in predictor variables which influence the shift behaviour The goodness-of-fit for the calibrated model can be analyzed by finding out the likelihood ratio index ρ2 (Arasan and Vedagiri, 2011; Arasanet al. 1998) given by equation 4,

퐿퐿(푃)−퐿퐿(0) 휌2 = (4) 퐿퐿(0) Where, LL(P) = log-likelihood of estimated model; LL(0)=log-likelihood for constant only model.

Table 2. Results of Model Calibration Variable Parameter Std. Error t-statistic Significance Intercept 3.638 Travel time (TT)* -0.063 0.047 -1.34 0.087 Waiting Time (WT) -0.588 0.171 -3.43 0.001 Travel cost (TC)* -0.081 0.046 -1.76 0.077 Access Distance (AD) 2.065 1.189 5.1 0.000

Likelihood Ratio index (ρ2) = 0.510 Overall prediction (percentage correct) 90.8% * variable is significant at 90% confidence interval.

The model calibration results are shown in Table 2. It is observed that the signs of the parameters are logical. Access Distance parameter is obtained as positive as the shift to BRT taken place when access distance is covered by auto-rickshaw. Estimating the optimal service area is very crucial and critical step in planning and designing for a feeder transit service (Panet al. 2014). Also, it was inferred from survey that travellers are ready to use auto- rickshaw up to 2 km as feeder to BRT, beyond which they are not. This is more reasonable as the access distance increases, the time taken for access and egress increases, entire duration of trip increases; convenience decreases; ultimately all these results into decrease in the utility to choose BRT. Consequently, adoption of either auto-rickshaw as trunk system or private modes comes into picture that eventually affects the performance of BRT system.

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Model validation is carried out with remaining 30% data samples and a Receivers Operational Characteristics Curve (ROC) is plotted, in which the area under the curve shows the strength of the model (Hanley and McNeil, 1982; Pearce and Ferrier, 2000). The area under the curve is obtained as 0.94 and is shown in Figure 7, which clearly states the model is considered to be acceptable. Sensitivity of the model is checked with two attributes in the developed model such as Access Distance (km) and Travel Time (in minute). As access distance increases, probability to shift to BRT increases up to a distance of 2km. The interesting fact is that for any point of access distance the probability of selecting BRT decreases with increase in its travel time as shown in Figure 8.

1

0.8

0.6

RoC Curve 0.4 Sensitivity Ideal

0.2

0 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 1-Specificity

Figure 7. Validation by ROC curve

1.0 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5

0.4 Probability 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 Access Distance (km)

TT 10min TT 30min TT 50min

Figure 8. Model sensitivity with Travel Time

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It is observed that about 38% shift can occur from auto-rickshaw to BRT within 05.km; 36% shift can occur within 1km and 13% shift is likely for less than 2km (but more than 1 km) access distance. Therefore, the influence area can be considered as the area up to 2km on each side of the trunk route. Beyond this influence zone the passenger-km will reduce drastically.

45000 - 40000 35000 30000 25000

20000 km) 15000 10000 5000

0 Cumulative (passenger Ridership Cumulative 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.9 1.1 1.3 1.5 1.7 1.9 Distance in km Predicted ridership Existing auto-rickshaw ridership

Figure 9. Re-organization of auto-rickshaw ridership

Moreover, the comparison of existing travel demand in terms of passenger-km by para-transit, and the demand of para-transit after modal shift to BRT considering para-transit as a feeder, clearly indicates the enhancement of ridership in para-transit even though the trip length is restricted up to 2km which is illustrated in Figure 9. Therefore, the study suggests that the revenue generated from para-transit system can be maintained by providing it as feeder to BRT system for efficient mobility and utility of transport services.

6. SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS

Rapid increase in the personalized vehicles and auto-rickshaws in Surat city leads to various traffic related and environment related issues. As an emerging smart city, issues related to transport systems must be mitigated in a substantiate manner to achieve the desired bench markings. Due to the insufficient supply of public transport system in the city, people habituated to travel with their personalized modes and para-transit system. A sudden shift from the existing modes to a newly implemented public transport system will not be anticipated in a short time. Surat Municipal Corporation with the help of SITILINK Company introduced Bus Rapid Transit System which interconnects all major corridors in the city. Due to the attractiveness of BRT system, ridership to BRT system initiated gradually. This scenario affects the revenue generation of para-transit operators in other way. Therefore, this study gains important as it focuses on the enhancement of ridership of para-transit thereby its revenue. In order to understand the operational characteristics of the para-transit system, two types of surveys were conducted; para-transit operator survey and para-transit user survey. The analysis clearly depicts the fact that the auto-rickshaw drivers are belonging low or middle-income family. Two types of operations are provided by drivers like private (Special) trips and share (shuttle) trips. Most of the auto-rickshaws are run by CNG compared to petrol and diesel. Major reason for choosing auto-rickshaw by the user is the demand responsive

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nature of the system. But with the safety and comfort point of view travellers are willing to use BRT system. To capture the operational characteristics of BRT system, on-board BRT survey was carried out on Udhna-Sachin corridor of about 20 km in route length. Stated preference responses were collected from both para-transit users and BRT users to obtain the modal shift model for estimating patronage shift to BRT using auto-rickshaw as a feeder system. Binary logit model is developed with four travel attributes like Travel cost, travel time, waiting time and access distance. The sign of parameters obtained from calibration of binary logit model is logical. Overall prediction of the model was more than 90% which holds well. The Receivers Operating Characteristic Curves (ROC) is developed to substantiate the model prediction power. Finally, a comparison of existing ridership and predicted ridership of auto-rickshaw in terms of passenger-km within influence area of 2km on each side of trunk route is carried out. About 4 to 5 times the increment in ridership has observed for auto- rickshaws. This increment in ridership ultimately supplements the revenue generation so that the economy of para-transit operators will not drop. An attempt in this study is made to rearrange the para-transit as a feeder into urban transportation system that is purely based on the response from para-transit users, passengers and BRT passengers. Several issues are yet to be addressed in this study because it is focused only on the influences of commuter attitudes and preferences. Further, commuters’ demographic and travel details are needed in a large scale to obtain more accurate results of passenger choice consideration. Policy makers and researchers can improve the validity of the findings from this paper that may leads to enhance the urban transportation performance in the developing countries.

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