THE ANSO REPORT -Not for Copy Or Sale
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The Afghanistan NGO Safety Office Issue: 33 1-15 September 2009 ANSO and our donors accept no liability for the results of any activity conducted or omitted on the basis of this report. THE ANSO REPORT -Not for copy or sale- Inside this Issue COUNTRY SUMMARY 3-6 Central Region AOG INITIATED ATTACKS (2006-2009) 1200 Northern Region 6-9 1091 Western Region 9-11 1000 800 Eastern Region 11-13 600 Southern Region 13-16 ANSO Info Page 17 400 200 0 YOU NEED TO KNOW JUL JUL JUL JUL SEP SEP SEP SEP FEB FEB FEB JAN JAN JAN JAN JUN JUN JUN JUN DEC DEC DEC DEC APR APR APR APR FEB FEB OCT OCT OCT OCT AUG AUG AUG AUG NOV NOV NOV NOV MAY MAY MAY MAY MAR MAR MAR MAR • Possibility of demonstra- tions as election related 2006 2007 AUGUST2008 2009 tensions mount • Security worsens in the After recording a staggering 1091 attacks by Armed Opposition Groups (AOGs) in August, northern province of Kun- attack numbers have now fallen by almost half in early September. Although incident levels duz due to civilian casualties normally decline in September, the drop is not usually this sharp, which reinforces our as- • Another IMF incident re- sessment that AOGs expended much of their fighting resources on election day. Despite ported at an NGO clinic the current and likely temporary lull, significant AOG attacks and operations were reported in every region during the last 2 weeks. • Deputy Chief of Intelli- gence killed in the East In the Central Region, attacks against a military CENTRAL REGION—AOG INCIDENTS base and the airport in ANSO is supported by Kabul were the most significant this period; however, the worsening situation in Wardak, Logar, Bamyan, Kapisa, and Daykundi are more worrisome for NGOs. As explained in more detail on page 3, serious concerns and public frus- tration over the election process continue to fuel tensions in Kabul. The potential for demonstra- tions and civil unrest is perhaps at its highest since the start of the election. Important deci- sions and announcements are expected from election bodies and political parties in this next period and will likely have important security implications for NGOs. THE ANSO REPORT Page 2 Fighting in Kunduz drove incident levels in the Northern Region to record heights in August (see chart right*), but the NORTHERN REGION—AOG INCIDENTS situation was made much worse by two recent incidents: a U.S. airstrike ordered by the German forces reportedly killed and injured a large number of civilians, and a botched mili- tary operation by British forces that rescued a kidnapped British journalist killed his Afghan colleague and left several others dead. These two incidents, which are examined in detail on page 7, will no doubt turn local residents even fur- ther against international military forces, and probably for- eigners and INGOs in the area as well. The increasing use of improvised explosive devices (IEDs) in Herat City and the high casualty rates and collateral dam- age caused by these attacks are especially disconcerting be- cause of the large number of NGO staff living in the city. A number of significant explosive and IED related seizures were reported in the last two weeks in districts around Herat WESTERN REGION—AOG INCIDENTS City, indicating AOGs’ intent to carry out more such attacks. In the coming period, there is a risk that AOG will attempt to target Government officials who normally attend public ceremonies during Eid since they are usually more difficult to protect in these areas. This has been the case in the west- ern region in the past. More kidnapping threats are also in circulation in the west, as discussed on page 10. The assassination of the Deputy Head of Afghan intelli- gence and the Chairman of the Laghman Provincial Council made international headlines this month as it demonstrated the AOG ability to target one of the nation’s key security figures and a long-time opponent of the Taliban and HIG. The total number of AOG attacks in the East Region (see below) remain very high mostly due to intensive fighting in Kunar. As discussed on page 13, a change in AOGs’ effec- tiveness and coordination during attacks was noted during this reporting period because they resulted in significant casualties to international military forces. EASTERN REGION—AOG INCIDENTS SOUTHERN REGION—AOG INCIDENTS * Please note the scale difference among the charts. September data includes incidents up to Sept 8 only. THE ANSO REPORT Page 3 NGO Incidents KABUL KABUL Year to Date 8 50 This Report Period 0 Kabul continues to experience a 40 post-election lull in security inci- sult will be released before the 30 dents. In the last reporting period, patience of the politically mobi- 20 only a dozen security incidents lised becoming exhausted. 10 were recorded across the prov- The period also witnessed two 0 ince. Criminal activity has virtually high profile AOG attacks in Ka- halted as the population is divided bul City. The first occurred on 7 between those pre-occupied or September when two AOG in a KABUL AOG KABUL ACG totally ambivalent about the ongo- Toyota Corolla allegedly attacked ing post-election theatre. To date, Camp Phoenix along Jalalabad heavily secured area without detection and almost three thousand complaints Road. The engagement, using detonate causing significant casualties. Two have been received by the Elec- SAF and RPGs, is reported to rocket attacks also struck Kabul on 6 and 14 toral Complaints Commission, have lasted approximately one September; the first hit a house in District Five which has severely brought into hour and resulted in the death of and killed three civilians. question the legitimacy of the the two AOG. (Unconfirmed re- Other districts of Kabul Province have also election. Candidates have commit- ports of explosions at the rear of remained comparatively quiet. An ANP vehicle ted publicly to the legal process the heavily fortified compound struck an IED on 7 September in Chahar and, thus far, have been able to were also received.) The second Asyab, injuring two, and on 12 September in restrain supporters from using the incident occurred the following Khakki Jabbar, a dispute between an ANP and streets as an avenue of protest. morning when a SVBIED deto- his IMF mentor led to several shots being fired The question remains as to nated at the entrance to the Kabul and three people being injured, including the whether the certified election re- military airport. The explosion two said men. resulted in four fatalities and ap- Despite calls for restraint by candidates, the proximately fourteen wounded, possibility remains that demonstrations may KEY THREATS & CON- including IMF. The attack is simi- CERNS occur in the following weeks as frustration lar in nature to the 15 August with the post-election results increases. The Election demonstrations SVBIED attack on ISAF HQ, concern is that any protests may be met with a Complex attacks against high which killed almost a dozen peo- profile targets disproportionate response from ANSF. NGOs ple and left one hundred Abductions should ensure that all staff avoid large gather- wounded. In both instances, a ings in the current uncertainty. vehicle was able to approach a NGO Incidents DAYKUNDI DAYKUNDI Year to Date 1 50 This Report Period 0 40 Two arrests were made during the 30 last reporting period in relation to number of weapons as well as money were found. Acts of ran- 20 the robbery of a significant 10 amount of money from an IEC dom banditry occur irregularly 0 car travelling through the Shilan along the pass; however, violence Pass between Nili and Ishtarlay. is rarely used. Separately, there have been no reported encroach- Arrests were made in Lawran Val- DAYKUNDI AOG DAYKUNDI ACG ley on 3 and 11 September, and a ments on Nili from the known AOG strongholds in the districts in the local political power structure following of Kajran and Gizab. An informal the installation of any new regime in Kabul. In KEY THREATS & CON- consensus between elders on both the past, NGO activities have faced threats, CERNS sides of the divide seems to assure including a realised kidnapping, due to local High AOG infiltration in Kiti, the continuance of the status quo Gizrab, and Kajran commanders attempting to gain leverage in for the immediate future. The political negotiations. Similar threats are liable Low security presence through- out the province security situation in the province to be issued if local political dynamics suffer a is likely to be affected by a change significant change in the weeks ahead. THE ANSO REPORT Page 4 NGO Incidents LOGAR LOGAR Year to Date 2 50 This Report Period 0 40 Baraki Barak, Muhammad Agha, ments as well as from IEDs 30 and Charkh continue to be the 20 most hostile environments in planted by AOG along district roads. For the month of Septem- 10 Logar with IED attacks and am- 0 bushes, mainly directed at IMF ber alone, there were eleven dis- and ANSF, being the most fre- coveries of IEDs along district quently used AOG tactics. roads in the province, with an LOGAR AOG LOGAR ACG additional two premature detona- The main risk to NGO operations raki Barak, Kharwar, and Charkh, probably tions. An IED also struck an remains collateral exposure to due to reported effective AOG control. Fur- ANA vehicle on 5 September IMF/ANSF and AOG engage- thermore, unless an NGO has specific guaran- with two ANA soldiers being tees of support and evidence of acceptance, all wounded. A further IED strike KEY THREATS & CONCERNS of Logar should currently be considered hos- against an IMF convoy that left tile to NGO operations.