Quantitative Equity Research Report
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Quantitative Equity Research Report | Release: 25 May 2021, 23:01 UTC | Reporting Currency: EUR | Trading Currency: EUR | Exchange: DEUTSCHE BOERSE AG Page 1 of 4 Metrovacesa SA MS6N QQQ 25 May 2021, 22:43 UTC Economic Moat Uncertainty Price/Fair Value Trailing Dividend Yield % Market Cap Investment Style Sector Industry None Very High 0.7 5.69 1.0798 Bil Small Growth Consumer Residential Construction Cyclical 40 Fair ValueQoant 30 9.52 20 Last Close 10 7.03 Overvalued Fairly Valued 0.5 Undervalued 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 YTD Performance — — — — — — — 0.91 0.76 0.95 0.74 Price/Fair Value — — — — — — — — -17.87 -30.54 24.16 Total Return % — — — — — — — — -33.13 -18.62 -17.43 +/- Index Total Return % as of 21 May 2021. Last Close as of 25 May 2021. Fair Value as of 25 May 2021, 22:43 UTC. Index: Morningstar Spain GR EUR. There is no one analyst in which a Quantitative Fair Value Estimate and Quantitative Star Rating are attributed to; however, Mr. Lee Davidson, Head of Quantitative Research for Morn- ingstar, Inc., is responsible for overseeing the methodology that supports the quantitative fair value. As an employee of Morningstar, Inc., Mr. Davidson is guided by Morningstar, Inc.’s Code of Ethics and Personal Securities Trading Policy in carrying out his responsibilities. For information regarding Conflicts of Interests, visit http://global.morningstar.com/equitydisclosures Valuation as of 25 May 2021 Financials as of 25 May 2021 (Fiscal Year End 31 Dec 2021) 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 YTD Fiscal MS6N is Under 248 208 — — 36 21 28 190 162 148 148 Revenue (Mil) 77.01 113.21 — — -27.50 -28.07 -74.66 -1.32 -8.27 -131.62 -131.62 Operating Income (Mil) Valued at a 26% 31.01 54.49 — — -76.31 -133 -264 -0.69 -5.12 -89.01 -89.01 Operating Margin (%) Qoant discount. Fair Value -144.67 -269.33 — — 64.14 -20.53 -38.91 -9.10 -4.49 -163.52 -163.52 Net Income (Mil) 9.52 Qoant -0.15 -0.27 — — 0.73 -0.01 -0.44 -0.03 -0.03 -1.08 -1.08 Diluted Earnings/Share Uncertainty : Economic Moat Very High None 201 111 — — -62 21 -27 35 -28 -78 -78 Operating Cash Flow (Mil) Financial Health -157.33 -19.55 — — — — -0.63 -0.58 -1.08 -0.37 -0.37 Capital Spending (Mil) Moderate 43 91 — — -62 21 -27 34 -29 -79 -79 Free Cash Flow (Mil) Last Close 988 88 — — 88 3,075 88 334 151 151 151 Avg Shares Outstand(Mil) 1-Star Price 7.03 — — — — — — — — — — 0.40 Dividend Per Share 19.11 5-Star Price 4.74 Valuation as of 25 May 2021 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Current Calendar — — — — — — — 0.91 0.76 0.95 0.74 Price/Fair Value — — — — — — — 16.00 6.31 5.49 5.54 Price/Sales Contact — — — — — — — — 246.18 — 249.62 Price/Earnings Quintanavides street, 13, Parque vía Norte, Madrid, — — — — — — — 11.14 — — 144.73 Price/Cash Flow — 28050 — — — — — — — 0.69 0.55 0.40 0.49 Price/Book +34 913183700 — https://www.metrovacesa.com Operating Performance as of 25 May 2021 (Fiscal Year End 31 Dec 2021) 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Q3 Fiscal (%) -1.86 -3.54 — — 5.93 -1.9 -2.14 -0.35 -0.17 -5.83 -2.78 Return on Assets -11.27 -16.11 — — 6.29 -2.03 -2.29 -0.38 -0.19 -7.23 -3.66 Return on Equity 0.62 -0.85 — — -3.7 -2.05 -2.03 -0.17 -0.04 -6.22 -3.09 Rtn on Invested Capital Business Description Metrovacesa SA is a real estate company that fo- cuses on the development and sale of residential property. Geographically, it operates primarily in Spain. ©2021 Morningstar. All Rights Reserved. Unless otherwise provided in a separate agreement, you may use this report only in the country in which its original distributor is based. The information, data, analyses and opinions ® presented herein do not constitute investment advice; are provided solely for informational purposes and therefore is not an offer to buy or sell a security; are not warranted to be correct, complete or accurate; and are ß subject to change without notice. Except as otherwise required by law, Morningstar shall not be responsible for any trading decisions, damages or other losses resulting from, or related to, the information, data, analyses or opinions or their use. The information herein may not be reproduced, in any manner without the prior written consent of Morningstar. Please see important disclosures at the end of this report. Quantitative Equity Research Report | Release: 25 May 2021, 23:01 UTC | Reporting Currency: EUR | Trading Currency: EUR | Exchange: DEUTSCHE BOERSE AG Page 2 of 4 Uncertainty) Quantitative Equity Reports Overview Micro-Caps: Log (Quant FVE/Price) between (0.75*Quantitative Uncertainty, 1.5*Quantitative Uncertainty) QQQQQ – the stock is undervalued with a reasonable margin of safety. Log (Quant FVE/Price) > 1*Quantitative Uncertainty Micro-Caps: Log (Quant FVE/Price) > 1.5*Quantitative Uncertainty The quantitative report on equities consists of data, statistics and quantitative equity ratings on equity securities. Morningstar, Inc.’s quantitative equity After the initial calculation for the star rating, there is a final filtering step ratings are forward looking and are generated by a statistical model that is based on the momentum of the company. We rank the companies based on based on Morningstar Inc.’s analyst-driven equity ratings and quantitative their 12-1 month momentum, then restrict those below the 30th percentile to a statistics. Given the nature of the quantitative report and the quantitative maximum of 3 stars. ratings, there is no one analyst in which a given report is attributed to; however, Mr. Lee Davidson, Head of Quantitative Research for Morningstar, iv. Quantitative Uncertainty: Intended to represent Morningstar’s level of Inc., is responsible for overseeing the methodology that supports the uncertainty about the accuracy of the Quantitative Fair Value Estimate. quantitative equity ratings used in this report. As an employee of Morningstar, Generally, the lower the Quantitative Uncertainty, the narrower the potential Inc., Mr. Davidson is guided by Morningstar, Inc.’s Code of Ethics and Personal range of outcomes for that particular company. The rating is expressed as Low, Securities Trading Policy in carrying out his responsibilities. Medium, High, Very High, and Extreme. Low – the interquartile range for possible fair values is less than 10% Quantitative Equity Ratings Medium – the interquartile range for possible fair values is less than 15% Morningstar’s quantitative equity ratings consist of: (i) Quantitative Fair Value but greater than 10% Estimate, (ii) Quantitative Star Rating, (iii) Quantitative Uncertainty, (iv) High – the interquartile range for possible fair values is less than 35% but Quantitative Economic Moat, and (v) Quantitative Financial Health (collectively greater than 15% the “Quantitative Ratings). Very High – the interquartile range for possible fair values is less than 80% but greater than 35% The Quantitative Ratings are calculated daily and derived from the analyst- Extreme – the interquartile range for possible fair values is greater than driven ratings of a company’s peers as determined by statistical algorithms. 80% Morningstar, Inc. (“Morningstar”, “we”, “our”) calculates Quantitative Ratings for companies whether or not it already provides analyst ratings and qualitative v. Quantitative Financial Health: Intended to reflect the probability that a firm coverage. In some cases, the Quantitative Ratings may differ from the analyst will face financial distress in the near future. The calculation uses a predictive ratings because a company’s analyst-driven ratings can significantly differ from model designed to anticipate when a company may default on its financial other companies in its peer group. obligations. The rating is expressed as Weak, Moderate, and Strong. Weak – assigned when Quantitative Financial Health < 0.2 i. Quantitative Fair Value Estimate: Intended to represent Morningstar’s Moderate – assigned when Quantitative Financial Health is between 0.2 estimate of the per share dollar amount that a company’s equity is worth and 0.7 today. Morningstar calculates the Quantitative Fair Value Estimate using a Strong – assigned when Quantitative Financial Health > 0.7 statistical model derived from the Fair Value Estimate Morningstar’s equity analysts assign to companies. Please go to http://global.morningstar.com/ Other Definitions equitydisclosures for information about Fair Value Estimate Morningstar’s i. Last Close – Price of the stock as of the close of the market of the last equity analysts assign to companies. trading day before date of the report. ii. Quantitative Valuation– Using the below terms, intended to denote the ii. Quantitative Economic Moat: Intended to describe the strength of a firm’s relationship between the security’s Last Price and Morningstar’s quantitative competitive position. It is calculated using an algorithm designed to predict the fair value estimate for that security. Economic Moat rating a Morningstar analyst would assign to the stock. The Undervalued – Last Price is below Morningstar’s quantitative fair value rating is expressed as Narrow, Wide, or None. estimate. Narrow – assigned when the probability of a stock receiving a “Wide Moat” Farily Valued – Last Price is in line with Morningstar’s quantitative fair value rating by an analyst is greater than 70% but less than 99%. estimate. Wide – assigned when the probability of a stock receiving a “Wide Moat” Overvalued – Last Price is above Morningstar’s quantitative fair value rating by an analyst is greater than 99%. estimate. None – assigned when the probability of an analyst receiving a “Wide Moat” rating by an analyst is less than 70%. This Report has not been made available to the issuer of the security prior to publication.