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Monthly Forecast June 2019 Monthly Forecast 1 Overview Overview 2 In Hindsight: Security Council Elections 2019 3 Status Update since our Kuwait will hold the presidency in June. Three • South Sudan, on the activities of UNMISS; May Forecast high-level briefings are planned: onprotection of • Sudan, the semi-annual briefing by the ICC civilians and missing persons in armed conflict, prosecutor and the quarterly briefing by the 4 Yemen on conflict prevention and mediation, and on chair of the 1591 Sudan Sanctions Committee; 6 Conflict Prevention and regional cooperation. All three briefings will be and Mediation chaired by Kuwaiti Deputy Prime Minister and • UNOCA/LRA, an update on the activities of 7 Open Debate on Minister of Foreign Affairs Sheikh Sabah Khaled UNOCA (Central Africa) and the regional Security Council Al-Hamad Al-Sabah. OCHA Under-Secretary- strategy to combat the Lord’s Resistant Army. Working Methods General Mark Lowcock and a representative from In addition to the monthly meeting on the 8 UNOCA/LRA the ICRC are expected to brief at the “missing situation in the Middle East, including the 9 Libya persons in conflict” meeting. Secretary-General Palestinian question, other Middle East issues 10 Kosovo António Guterres; Mary Robinson, the chair of that will be considered include: 12 Protection of Civilians: the Elders; and Ban Ki-moon, a deputy chair • Syria, the monthly briefings on the Missing Persons in of the Elders, are the anticipated briefers for humanitarian situation, the political process, Armed Conflict the conflict prevention and mediation briefing. and the use of chemical weapons; 13 Mali Guterres and the League of Arab States (LAS) • Iran, the implementation of resolution 2231, Secretary-General Ahmed Aboul-Gheit may brief which endorsed the Joint Comprehensive Plan 14 Briefing on Cooperation between the UN and during the third of the meetings, on cooperation of Action on Iran’s nuclear programme; and the League of Arab between the UN and the League of Arab States. • Yemen, an update on the implementation of States Kuwait, the chair of the Working Group on resolution 2452, which established the UN 15 Syria Documentation and Other Procedural Questions, Mission to support the Hodeidah Agreement. is also planning to hold an open debate on The annual briefing by force commanders will 16 Sudan (Darfur) working methods. be by commanders of peacekeeping missions in 18 UNDOF (Golan Heights) Adoptions are scheduled to renew the Cyprus (UNFICYP) and Darfur (UNAMID). 19 Peacekeeping Democratic Republic of the Congo sanctions In June, the Council will have the second 20 Afghanistan and the authorisation for member states to of three briefings on the situation inKosovo inspect vessels on the high seas off the coast of scheduled this year. 21 Central African Republic Libya. A further three adoptions are scheduled Regarding Asian issues there will be the regular to renew the mandates of the missions in Darfur debate on Afghanistan. 23 South Sudan (UNAMID), the Golan Heights (UNDOF) and There may be a Council visiting mission 24 Democratic Republic of Mali (MINUSMA). Ahead of the adoptions there during the month. the Congo will be consultations on UNDOF, and briefing Finally, the General Assembly is scheduled 25 Iran and consultations on UNAMID and MINUSMA to elect five non-permanent Security Council 26 Somalia as well as TCC meetings on all three missions. members on 7 June. Six member states— 27 Haiti Meetings on other African issues this month Estonia, Niger, Romania, Saint Vincent and the include: Grenadines, Tunisia and Viet Nam—are running • Central African Republic, on the activities of for the five available seats. Estonia and Romania MINUSCA; are contesting the single Eastern European Group • Somalia, a briefing by the chair of the 751 seat, while the other four candidates will run 30 May Year Somalia Sanctions Committee; unopposed. This report is available online at securitycouncilreport.org. For daily insights by SCR on evolving Security Council actions please subscribe to our “What’s In Blue” series at whatsinblue.org or follow @SCRtweets on Twitter. Security Council Report Monthly Forecast June 2019 securitycouncilreport.org 1 In Hindsight: Security Council Elections 2019 The 73rd session of the UN General member states are present and voting. security situation in West Africa and the Sahel. Assembly is expected to hold elections on Election to the Council, as with other Niger faces a “triple threat” as a result of the 7 June for five non-permanent members of principal organs of the UN, requires formal conflict in Mali to its east, the war in Libya the Security Council for the term 2020-2021. balloting even if candidates have been to its north, and the presence of Boko Haram (For more detailed information, please see endorsed by their regional group and are in the south-east, so it can be expected to our 14 May research report Security Council running unopposed. In theory it is possible, take a particular interest in these issues. As Elections 2019.) although unlikely, that a member state part of the Joint Force of the Group of Five running unopposed might not garner the for the Sahel (G5 Sahel), Niger is likely to Background requisite votes in the General Assembly in be especially interested in the Council’s The five seats available for election in 2019 the first round. Such a country could then engagement on this and also in the UN according to the customary distribution be challenged in subsequent rounds by a new Multidimensional Integrated Stabilisation among regions will be as follows: candidate, and ultimately not obtain a seat. Mission in Mali (MINUSMA), to which • two seats for the African Group (currently There have been several instances in Niger is a significant troop contributor. held by Côte d´Ivoire and Equatorial which extended rounds of voting were During its Security Council campaign, Guinea); required to fill a contested seat. Such Romania placed peacebuilding high on • one seat for the Group of Asia and the situations have usually been solved by the its list of priorities. Romania chaired the Pacific Small Island Developing States withdrawal of one of the contenders or the Peacebuilding Commission (PBC) in 2018 (the Asia-Pacific Group, currently held by election of a compromise candidate, rather and has served as vice-chair in 2019. If Kuwait); than by agreeing on a split term. The sole elected, Romania can be expected to foster • one seat for the Group of Latin American exception to this practice since 1966 was cooperation between the Security Council and and Caribbean States (GRULAC, the 2016 agreement between Italy and the the PBC. During its most recent term on the currently held by Peru); and Netherlands to split the 2017-2018 term. Security Council from 2004 to 2005, Romania • one seat for the Eastern European Group was particularly engaged around preventive (currently held by Poland). Potential Council Dynamics in 2020 diplomacy and post-conflict reconstruction The Western European and Others Group This will be the fourth Council election since as well as cooperation between the UN and (WEOG) is not contesting any seats this year its timing was brought forward from October regional organisations. If elected, Romania is as both its seats, currently held by Belgium to June. As a result, the incoming members expected to focus again on these issues. and Germany, come up for election every enjoy a longer preparatory period, including Saint Vincent and the Grenadines other year. three months of participation as observers in campaigned on emphasising the need to Six member states—Estonia, Niger, Council consultations of the whole, Council address the effects of climate change and Romania, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, subsidiary bodies, and some informal Council the linkages between climate and security. Tunisia and Viet Nam—are currently running meetings. Although it is difficult to assess how Estonia similarly identified this issue as high for the five available seats. Estonia and the Council’s dynamics might evolve next on its list of priorities. Romania, Tunisia and Romania are contesting the single Eastern year, the priorities raised in the campaigns by Viet Nam also highlighted the issue. Saint European Group seat, while the other four the candidates, as well as their long-standing Vincent and the Grenadines is also likely to candidates will run unopposed. interests, provide some indication (discussed take a keen interest in the situation in Haiti, Four of the six candidates have served on in alphabetical order below). given its geographical proximity. Also, given the Council previously: Niger has served once, During its campaign, Estonia placed its involvement in regional dialogue efforts in nearly 40 years ago (1980-1981); Romania cyber-security high on its list of priorities, Venezuela, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines has served four times, starting with one year including in the context of responding to may want to be active in the Council’s as a result of the split term in 1962 and 1963 threats of cyber-attacks and developing engagement on the issue. between Romania and the Philippines (1962, international norms and standards to deal Tunisia can be expected to emphasise 1976-1977, 1990-1991 and 2004-2005); with this issue. Tunisia and Romania also African issues, which make up the bulk of the Tunisia has served three times (1959-1960, highlighted cyber-security in their campaigns. Council’s agenda. Given that it contributes 1980-1981 and 2000-2001); and Viet Nam Estonia is the only candidate that is a member most of its UN troops to MINUSMA, has served once (2008–2009). Estonia and of the Accountability, Coherence and Tunisia is likely to take particular interest in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines have never Transparency Group (ACT). In this regard, this file.
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