DOCSLIB.ORG

Decision Making in U.S. Foreign Policy: Applying Kingdon's

Total Page：16

File Type：pdf, Size：1020Kb

Download full-text PDF Read full-text
Decision Making in U.S. Foreign Policy: Applying Kingdon's DECISION MAKING IN U.S. FOREIGN POLICY: APPLYING KINGDON’S MULTIPLE STREAMS MODEL TO THE 2003 IRAQ CRISIS A dissertation submitted to Kent State University in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy by Ramona Saikaly May 2009 Dissertation written by Ramona Saikaly B.A., American University of Beirut, 1975 M.A., Case Western Reserve University, 2000 Ph.D., Kent State University, 2009 Approved by Steven W. Hook , Chair, Doctoral Dissertation Committee Renee J. Johnson , Members, Doctoral Dissertation Committee Mary Ann Heiss Richard C. Robyn Accepted by Steven W. Hook , Chair, Department of Political Science John R. D. Stalvey , Dean, College of Arts and Sciences ii TABLE OF CONTENTS LIST OF FIGURES ........................................................................................................... vi LIST OF TABLES............................................................................................................ vii INTRODUCTION – RESEARCH DESIGN...................................................................... 1 The Multiple Streams Model .......................................................................................... 5 The Rational Actor Model .............................................................................................. 8 The Governmental Politics Model.................................................................................. 9 Psychological Approaches............................................................................................ 11 Groupthink ................................................................................................................ 11 The Cognitive Approach........................................................................................... 13 Analytical Framework .................................................................................................. 14 Research Design, Methodology, and Case Selection.................................................... 18 Case Selection........................................................................................................... 20 The Unit of Analysis................................................................................................. 21 Measurements and Data............................................................................................ 22 Organization of Study................................................................................................... 29 HISTORICAL REVIEW .................................................................................................. 31 Iraq after the Persian Gulf War..................................................................................... 32 In the Aftermath of the Gulf War ............................................................................. 33 Cease-Fire Agreements............................................................................................. 33 Human Rights and Terrorism.................................................................................... 34 History of Weapons Inspections ............................................................................... 36 U.S. Attempts at Regime Change ............................................................................. 38 U.S. Assessment of Iraq’s Weapons and Programs.................................................. 41 Developments in the United States after 2001.............................................................. 42 Indicators and Forewarnings..................................................................................... 43 A New Era................................................................................................................. 46 iii The President Making the Case ................................................................................ 50 The Administration’s Debate and Campaign............................................................ 54 Congressional Debate and Dilemma......................................................................... 61 The Bush Doctrine .................................................................................................... 66 Toward War .............................................................................................................. 67 CONVENTIONAL APPROACHES................................................................................ 76 The Rational Actor Model ............................................................................................ 76 The Argument of this Section................................................................................... 77 The Strategic Problem............................................................................................... 79 Objectives/Goals....................................................................................................... 82 Options...................................................................................................................... 84 Cost and Benefit Analysis......................................................................................... 87 Strategic Interaction.................................................................................................. 91 Other Considerations ................................................................................................ 94 Choosing an Option .................................................................................................. 95 Conclusion ................................................................................................................ 96 The Governmental Politics Model................................................................................ 98 The Argument of this Section................................................................................... 99 The Assumptions of the Governmental Politics Model............................................ 99 Testing the Model ................................................................................................... 101 Conclusion .............................................................................................................. 114 Groupthink .................................................................................................................. 116 The Argument of this Section................................................................................. 117 Antecedents to Groupthink ..................................................................................... 118 Symptoms of Groupthink........................................................................................ 125 Defective Courses of Action................................................................................... 133 Conclusion .............................................................................................................. 136 The Cognitive Approach............................................................................................. 137 The Argument of this Section................................................................................. 138 Assumptions of the Cognitive Approach................................................................ 138 Beliefs ..................................................................................................................... 139 Perceptions.............................................................................................................. 142 The Predominant Leader......................................................................................... 146 Conclusion .............................................................................................................. 149 iv THE MULTIPLE STREAMS MODEL ......................................................................... 151 The Argument of this Chapter .................................................................................... 151 Testing the Model ....................................................................................................... 153 A Preexisting Solution Circulating in Policy Arenas ............................................. 153 Inadequate Attempts to Deal with Iraq before 9/11................................................ 156 Domination of 9/11 Events ..................................................................................... 158 A New Policy Window in a Changed National Mood............................................ 163 A New Policy Window in a New Administration .................................................. 165 Same Players Advocating the New Policy Before and After 9/11 ......................... 168 Entrepreneurs Softening Up the Public and Government Circles .......................... 172 Policy Entrepreneurs Link Iraq Policy with al Qaeda and 9/11.............................. 179 Proposed Policy Moves from Governmental to Decision Agenda ......................... 183 Conclusion .................................................................................................................. 184 CONCLUSION............................................................................................................... 187 Evaluating the Models ................................................................................................ 189 The Rational Actor Model ...................................................................................... 190 The Governmental Politics Model.........................................................................
Load more

Recommended publications
  • Intimate Perspectives from the Battlefields of Iraq
    'The Best Covered War in History': Intimate Perspectives from the Battlefields of Iraq by Andrew J. McLaughlin A thesis presented to the University Of Waterloo in fulfilment of the thesis requirement for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in History Waterloo, Ontario, Canada, 2017 © Andrew J. McLaughlin 2017 Examining Committee Membership The following served on the Examining Committee for this thesis. The decision of the Examining Committee is by majority vote. External Examiner Marco Rimanelli Professor, St. Leo University Supervisor(s) Andrew Hunt Professor, University of Waterloo Internal Member Jasmin Habib Associate Professor, University of Waterloo Internal Member Roger Sarty Professor, Wilfrid Laurier University Internal-external Member Brian Orend Professor, University of Waterloo ii Author's Declaration I hereby declare that I am the sole author of this thesis. This is a true copy of the thesis, including any required final revisions, as accepted by my examiners. I understand that my thesis may be made electronically available to the public. iii Abstract This study examines combat operations from the 2003 invasion of Iraq War from the “ground up.” It utilizes unique first-person accounts that offer insights into the realities of modern warfare which include effects on soldiers, the local population, and journalists who were tasked with reporting on the action. It affirms the value of media embedding to the historian, as hundreds of journalists witnessed major combat operations firsthand. This line of argument stands in stark contrast to other academic assessments of the embedding program, which have criticized it by claiming media bias and military censorship. Here, an examination of the cultural and social dynamics of an army at war provides agency to soldiers, combat reporters, and innocent civilians caught in the crossfire.
    [Show full text]
  • Lessons-Encountered.Pdf
    conflict, and unity of effort and command. essons Encountered: Learning from They stand alongside the lessons of other wars the Long War began as two questions and remind future senior officers that those from General Martin E. Dempsey, 18th who fail to learn from past mistakes are bound Excerpts from LChairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff: What to repeat them. were the costs and benefits of the campaigns LESSONS ENCOUNTERED in Iraq and Afghanistan, and what were the LESSONS strategic lessons of these campaigns? The R Institute for National Strategic Studies at the National Defense University was tasked to answer these questions. The editors com- The Institute for National Strategic Studies posed a volume that assesses the war and (INSS) conducts research in support of the Henry Kissinger has reminded us that “the study of history offers no manual the Long Learning War from LESSONS ENCOUNTERED ENCOUNTERED analyzes the costs, using the Institute’s con- academic and leader development programs of instruction that can be applied automatically; history teaches by analogy, siderable in-house talent and the dedication at the National Defense University (NDU) in shedding light on the likely consequences of comparable situations.” At the of the NDU Press team. The audience for Washington, DC. It provides strategic sup- strategic level, there are no cookie-cutter lessons that can be pressed onto ev- Learning from the Long War this volume is senior officers, their staffs, and port to the Secretary of Defense, Chairman ery batch of future situational dough. The only safe posture is to know many the students in joint professional military of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, and unified com- historical cases and to be constantly reexamining the strategic context, ques- education courses—the future leaders of the batant commands.
    [Show full text]
  • Andrew J. Bacevich
    ANDREW J. BACEVICH Department of International Relations Boston University 152 Bay State Road Boston, Massachusetts 02215 Telephone (617) 358-0194 email: [email protected] CURRENT POSITION Boston University Professor of History and International Relations, College of Arts & Sciences Professor, Kilachand Honors College EDUCATION Princeton University, M. A., American History, 1977; Ph.D. American Diplomatic History, 1982 United States Military Academy, West Point, B.S., 1969 FELLOWSHIPS Columbia University, George McGovern Fellow, 2014 Kroc Institute for International Peace Studies, University of Notre Dame Visiting Research Fellow, 2012 The American Academy in Berlin Berlin Prize Fellow, 2004 The Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies, Johns Hopkins University Visiting Fellow of Strategic Studies, 1992-1993 The John F. Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University National Security Fellow, 1987-1988 Council on Foreign Relations, New York International Affairs Fellow, 1984-1985 PREVIOUS APPOINTMENTS Boston University Director, Center for International Relations, 1998-2005 The Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies, Johns Hopkins University Professorial Lecturer; Executive Director, Foreign Policy Institute, 1993-1998 School of Arts and Sciences, Johns Hopkins University Professorial Lecturer, Department of Political Science, 1995-19 United States Military Academy, West Point Assistant Professor, Department of History, 1977-1980 1 PUBLICATIONS Books and Monographs Breach of Trust: How Americans Failed Their Soldiers and Their Country. New York: Metropolitan Books (2013); audio edition (2013). The Short American Century: A Postmortem. Cambridge, Massachusetts: Harvard University Press (2012). (editor) Washington Rules: America’s Path to Permanent War. New York: Metropolitan Books (2010); audio edition (2010); Chinese edition (2011); Korean edition (2013). The Limits of Power: The End of American Exceptionalism.
    [Show full text]
  • Why Did the United States Invade Iraq in 2003?
    WHY DID THE UNITED STATES INVADE IRAQ IN 2003? (Forthcoming, Security Studies) Ahsan I. Butt ([email protected]) Associate Professor, Schar School of Policy and Government, George Mason University Non-resident Fellow, Stimson Center Why did the United States invade Iraq in 2003? Most scholars cite the nonproliferation of weapons of mass destruction (WMD), a neoconservative desire to spread democracy, or placating domestic interest groups as the Bush administration’s objectives, but I suggest these arguments are flawed. Instead, I proffer the “performative war” thesis, resting on the concepts of status, reputation, and hierarchy to explain the Iraq war. Hegemons desire generalized deterrence, such that others do not challenge their territory, preferences, or rule. However, the challenging of a hegemon’s authority, as occurred on 9/11, generates a need to assert hegemony and demonstrate strength to a global audience. Only fighting a war can demonstrate such strength; no peaceful bargain, even a lopsided one, can achieve the same effect. Consistent with this framework, the U.S. fought Iraq mainly for its demonstration effect—defeating the recalcitrant Saddam would lead other states to fear the U.S., submitting to its authority and global order. Introduction Why did the United States invade Iraq in 2003? Specifically, what concrete goal was the invasion supposed to accomplish for the Bush administration? International Relations scholars have proffered various answers to this question, including the nonproliferation of weapons of mass destruction (WMD), the diffusion of liberal democracy in the Arab and Muslim heartland, and the placating of domestic interest groups, such as the oil or Israel lobbies, but I suggest in this paper that these arguments are flawed.
    [Show full text]
  • Coming Face to Face with Bloody Reality: Liberal Common Sense and the Ideological Failure of the Bush Doctrine in Iraq
    Original Article Coming face to face with bloody reality: Liberal common sense and the ideological failure of the Bush doctrine in Iraq Toby Dodge Department of Politics, Queen Mary University of London, Mile End Road, London E1 4NS, UK. E-mail: [email protected] Abstract A conventional technocratic wisdom has begun to form that blames the failure of the US led invasion of Iraq on the small number of American troops deployed and the ideological divisions at the centre of the Bush administration itself. This paper argues that both these accounts are at best simply descriptive. A much more sustained explanation has to be based on a close examination of the ideological assumptions that shaped the drafting of policies and planning for the aftermath of the war. The point of departure for such an analysis is that all agency, whether individual or collective, is socially mediated. The paper deploys Antonio Gramsci’s notion of ‘Common Sense’ to examine the Bush administration’s policy towards Iraq. It argues that the Common Sense at work in the White House, Defence Department and Green Zone was primarily responsible for America’s failure. It examines the relationship between the ‘higher philosophies’ of both Neoconservatism and Neo-Liberalism and Common Sense. It concludes that although Neoconservatism was influential in justifying the invasion itself, it was Neo-Liberalism that shaped the policy agenda for the aftermath of war. It takes as its example the pre-war planning for Iraq, then the disbanding of the Iraqi army and the de-Ba’athification of the Iraqi state.
    [Show full text]
  • Booklist 2008 Rev
    Außen- und Sicherheitspolitik; Terrorismus 1 Wirtschafts- und Finanzkrise 26 Klima- und Energiepolitik 35 Wahlkampf, Bios, Politik und Religion, Zukunft GOP 41 Außen- und Sicherheitspolitik; Terrorismus “America and the World: Conversations on the Future of American For- eign Policy” Zbigniew Brzezinski, Brent Scowcroft, David Ignatius Publisher: Perseus Publishing Pub. Date: September 2008 Hardcover 304pp Synopsis The two most respected figures in American foreign policy define the international challenges facing the next president in the must-read foreign policy book of the season. Given the bitterness of partisan debates about foreign policy, now exacerbated by a tight race for the presidency, one might expect Brzezinski and Scowcroft to disagree vehemently about the challenges America faces abroad, the deci- sions that have shaped the nation's current travails and what the next president should do. Instead, they seem to see eye to eye on nearly every major foreign policy issue facing the United States…And, contrary to the operative assumption behind Sunday morning TV talk shows, it turns out that two wise interlocutors who concur can be as interesting and informative as experts with completely divergent views…The next president would do well to heed their counsel but should not underestimate the diffi- culty of sticking to it. “Strongest Tribe: War, Politics, and the Endgame in Iraq” Bing West Publisher: Random House Adult Trade Publishing Group Pub. Date: August 2008 Hardcover 464pp Synopsis From a universally respected combat journalist, a gripping history based on five years of front-line reporting about how the war was turned around–and the choice now facing America.
    [Show full text]
  • The US Army and the Battle for Baghdad: Lessons Learned
    C O R P O R A T I O N The U.S. Army and the Battle for Baghdad Lessons Learned—And Still to Be Learned David E. Johnson, Agnes Gereben Schaefer, Brenna Allen, Raphael S. Cohen, Gian Gentile, James Hoobler, Michael Schwille, Jerry M. Sollinger, Sean M. Zeigler For more information on this publication, visit www.rand.org/t/RR3076 Library of Congress Control Number: 2019940985 ISBN: 978-0-8330-9601-2 Published by the RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, Calif. © Copyright 2019 RAND Corporation R® is a registered trademark. Limited Print and Electronic Distribution Rights This document and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law. This representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for noncommercial use only. Unauthorized posting of this publication online is prohibited. Permission is given to duplicate this document for personal use only, as long as it is unaltered and complete. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of its research documents for commercial use. For information on reprint and linking permissions, please visit www.rand.org/pubs/permissions. The RAND Corporation is a research organization that develops solutions to public policy challenges to help make communities throughout the world safer and more secure, healthier and more prosperous. RAND is nonprofit, nonpartisan, and committed to the public interest. RAND’s publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors. Support RAND Make a tax-deductible charitable contribution at www.rand.org/giving/contribute www.rand.org Preface This report documents research and analysis conducted as part of a project entitled Lessons Learned from 13 Years of Conflict: The Battle for Baghdad, 2003–2008, spon- sored by the Office of Quadrennial Defense Review, U.S.
    [Show full text]
  • 6/16/2011 Coping with 9/11: Alternatives to the War Paradigm Matthew Evangelista States and Societies Have Faced the Threat of T
    6/16/2011 Coping with 9/11: Alternatives to the War Paradigm Matthew Evangelista States and societies have faced the threat of terrorism for centuries, but only sometimes have they resorted to war to deal with it. Even among the armed conflicts that states declare “wars against terrorism,” many are something quite different: wars against secessionist, anticolonial, or insurgent forces opposing a military occupation. The tactics employed by such forces may include terrorism, sometimes provoked by the military actions and war crimes of their state adversaries. But the tactics are part of a broader strategy that includes combat among armed fighters on each side. Such wars should be considered distinct from the random murder of innocent civilians that constitutes the most common definition of terrorism as a form of politically motivated violence.1 If states have a choice to address terrorist threats without resorting to war, they are likely to be more successful, because they avoid the backlash that can breed further terrorism. In the wake of the attacks of 11 September 2001, the administration of George W. Bush adopted what has become known as the war paradigm to respond to al Qaeda’s use of commercial airlines to murder mainly civilians. The day after the attacks, President Bush declared them “more than acts of terror. They were acts of war.”2 Returning from the site of the destruction of the Twin Towers a few days later, Bush referred to the “wreckage of New York City, the signs of the first battle of the war.3 At that point, however, there was no war in the sense of an armed conflict of sufficient intensity and duration to merit the designation according to international legal definitions.4 There were three attempts, of which two (against the World Trade Towers and the Pentagon) succeeded, with a death toll of some 3,000 people, including the first responders who perished in New York and the civilian passengers and crew who died in a field in Pennsylvania.
    [Show full text]
  • The Role of Bureaucratic Processes
    FIGHTING OVER WAR: THE BUREAUCRATIC ROLE IN CREATING WAR-TERMINATING BARGAINS A Dissertation submitted to the Faculty of the Graduate School of Arts and Sciences of Georgetown University in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Government By Thomas J. Nagle, M.A. Washington, DC November 13, 2013 Copyright 2013 by Thomas J. Nagle All Rights Reserved ii FIGHTING OVER WAR: THE BUREAUCRATIC ROLE IN CREATING WAR-TERMINATING BARGAINS Thomas J. Nagle, M.A. Thesis Advisor: Andrew Bennett, Ph.D. ABSTRACT The bargaining model of war assigns a central role to information, which enables belligerents to reduce mutual uncertainty. Although no two wars are identical, ceteris paribus, an enhanced ability to receive and interpret battlefield information should lead to a more rapid termination of the crisis. However, the U.S.’s experience with limited and protracted wars, despite its informational advantages, suggests this is not the case. How does a state determine its offers in the bargaining process to terminate a war once it becomes clear its exogenous ideal point is no longer attainable within an acceptable cost range? The area of war termination within the bargaining model of war has received growing attention, but remains challenged to account for prolonged wars, negotiated settlements, and delays in Bayesian updating. An under-explored factor in this line of inquiry is the role of the national security apparatus that supports the foreign policy executive in decision-making. My central hypothesis is that the bureaucratic advisory process affects state behavior in predictable manners. To explain these conditions, this dissertation develops a typological theory of the bureaucratic processes that create a state’s bargaining position.
    [Show full text]
  • Page | 1 Bibliography of the Iraq War Bruce Gilley, Associate Professor
    Bibliography of the Iraq War Bruce Gilley, Associate Professor, Division of Political Science, Portland State University //Overviews DeFronzo, J. (2010) The Iraq war : origins and consequences, Bolder, Colo.: Westview Press. Kinsella, D. T. (2007) Regime change : origins, execution, and aftermath of the Iraq war, Belmont, CA: Thomson/Wadsworth. Fawn, R. and Hinnebusch, R. A. (2006) The Iraq war : causes and consequences, Boulder, Colo.: Lynne Rienner Publishers. Mohamed El-Shibiny, Iraq : A Lost War (New York, NY: Palgrave Macmillan, 2011) //Research and Teaching Burgos, Russell (2008), “Teaching the Iraq War”, PS: Political Science & Politics, 41:1, 173- 178. (PDF Available) //Descriptive Aspects Kaldor, Mary (1999). New and Old Wars : Organized Violence in a Global Era. Stanford, Calif., Stanford University Press. Angstrom, Jan (2005). Puzzles and Propositions of the Iraq War. The Iraq War: European Perspectives on Politics, Strategy, and Operations. J. Hallenberg and H. Karlsson. New York, Routledge: 1-18. Kennedy, Liam (2009), “Soldier photography: visualising the war in Iraq”, Review of International Studies, Volume 35, Issue 04, October, pp 817-833. //Causes: Overviews Frank P. Harvey, Explaining the Iraq War : Counterfactual Theory, Logic and Evidence (2011) (New York: Cambridge University Press.) Jane K. Cramer and A. Trevor Thrall (2011) Why Did the United States Invade Iraq? (Milton Park, Abingdon ; N.Y.: Routledge.) //Causes: Saddam’s Iraq Sassoon, Saddam Hussein’s Ba’th Party (Cambridge, 2012) Mlfrid Braut-Hegghammer (2006), “Rebel Without a Cause? Explaining Iraq's Response to Resolution 1441”, Nonproliferation Review, Volume 13, Issue 1, pages 17 – 34 Brands, Hal. “Inside the Iraqi State Records: Saddam Hussein, ‘Irangate’, and the United States.” Journal of Strategic Studies, 34 (2011): 1, 95-118.
    [Show full text]
  • The Academy of Political Science 475 Riverside Drive · Suite 1274 · New York, New York 10115-1274
    The Academy of Political Science 475 Riverside Drive · Suite 1274 · New York, New York 10115-1274 (212) 870-2500 · FAX: (212) 870-2202 · [email protected] · http://www.psqonline.org POLITICAL SCIENCE QUARTERLY Volume 125 · Number 2 · Summer 2010 No part of this article may be copied, downloaded, stored, further transmitted, transferred, distributed, altered, or otherwise used, in any form or by any means, except: one stored electronic and one paper copy of any article solely for your personal, non- commercial use, or with prior written permission of The Academy of Political Science. Political Science Quarterly is published by The Academy of Political Science. Contact the Academy for further permission regarding the use of this work. Political Science Quarterly Copyright © 2010 by The Academy of Political Science. All rights reserved. Why Intelligence and Policymakers Clash ROBERT JERVIS There is nothing a Government hates more than to be well-informed; for it makes the process of arriving at decisions much more complicated and difficult. —John Maynard Keynes Let me tell you about these intelligence guys. When I was growing up in Texas, we had a cow named Bessie. Iʼd go out early and milk her. Iʼd get her in the stanchion, seat myself and squeeze out a pail of fresh milk. One day Iʼd worked hard and gotten a full pail of milk, but I wasnʼt paying attention, and old Bessie swung her s[..]t-smeared tail through the bucket of milk. Now, you know thatʼs what these intelligence guys do. You work hard and get a good program or policy going, and they swing a s[..]t-smeared tail through it.
    [Show full text]
  • Neoconservatism, the Project for the New American Century, and the Making of the Invasion of Iraq in 2003
    University of New Orleans ScholarWorks@UNO University of New Orleans Theses and Dissertations Dissertations and Theses Spring 5-13-2016 ‘Our Responsibility and Privilege to Fight Freedom’s Fight’: Neoconservatism, the Project for the New American Century, and the Making of the Invasion of Iraq in 2003 Daniel D. McCoy University of New Orleans, New Orleans, [email protected] Follow this and additional works at: https://scholarworks.uno.edu/td Part of the Intellectual History Commons Recommended Citation McCoy, Daniel D., "‘Our Responsibility and Privilege to Fight Freedom’s Fight’: Neoconservatism, the Project for the New American Century, and the Making of the Invasion of Iraq in 2003" (2016). University of New Orleans Theses and Dissertations. 2177. https://scholarworks.uno.edu/td/2177 This Thesis is protected by copyright and/or related rights. It has been brought to you by ScholarWorks@UNO with permission from the rights-holder(s). You are free to use this Thesis in any way that is permitted by the copyright and related rights legislation that applies to your use. For other uses you need to obtain permission from the rights- holder(s) directly, unless additional rights are indicated by a Creative Commons license in the record and/or on the work itself. This Thesis has been accepted for inclusion in University of New Orleans Theses and Dissertations by an authorized administrator of ScholarWorks@UNO. For more information, please contact [email protected]. ‘Our Responsibility and Privilege to Fight Freedom’s Fight’: Neoconservatism, the Project for the New American Century, and the Making of the Invasion of Iraq in 2003 A Thesis Submitted to the Graduate Faculty of the University of New Orleans in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Arts in History by Daniel McCoy B.A.
    [Show full text]