Bulletin #26 • July 2019 • www.zrbf.co.zw

The purpose of the ZRBF High Frequency Monitoring Bulletin is to avail real IN THIS REPORT time data and information on identified and agreed trigger indicators for Overall Results and Implications 2 the activation of the crisis modifier, performance monitoring, programming Implications and Actions related to Resilience and other decisions for the overall ZRBF adaptive programme management. Programming 4 Information presented in this bulletin is readily available in the HFM Online Status Update on Macro-Trigger Indicators 5 Database, accessible using this url

Vegetation Condition Index 5 https://197.155.231.242/undp/ZRBF/HFMS/index.php Real-time water levels in major rivers 6 The bulletin contains official information for the month of June 2019 collected Summary of Broad Classification: Micro Trigger from various sources by ZRBF partners and analysed by ZRBF PMU. The High Indicators 6 Frequency Monitoring Bulletin is a product of collaboration between the ZRBF Detailed Micro Trigger Indicators Update 7 Partners and other government agencies. For questions and comments regarding Annex 1: Flood monitoring thresholds for water this bulletin, kindly get in touch withVhusomuzi Sithole (vhusomuzi.sithole@ level in selected rivers 11 undp.org), Alfios Mayoyo ([email protected]) or Rufael Fassil (rufael. [email protected]).

UNDP , ZRBF Programme Management Unit Arundel Office Park, Block 9, Norfolk Rd, Mt. Pleasant, , Zimbabwe, Phone: +263 4 338836-44 Page 2 | High Frequency Monitoring Report Bulletin #26 | July 2019

Overall Results and Implications

Summary Classification

Key Highlights

According to the High Frequency Monitoring (HFM) classification, 17 districts (, Bubi, Binga, Chiredzi, , , Lupane, Matobo, Mberengwa, Mbire, Mudzi, Mutoko, Mwenezi, Nkayi, Nyanga, Umguza and Zv- ishavane) were rated “Alert” and one (Umzingwane) did not report. The following indicators were rated “Emer- gency” during the reporting month of June 2019 were: 1. Cattle price in Beitbridge, Binga, Bubi, Kariba, Lupane, Mbire and Nkayi 2. Reported casesof common diarrhoea in Beitbridge, Binga, Chiredzi, Kariba, Lupane, Matobo, Mberengwa, Mbire, Mudzi, Mutoko, Mwenezi, Nkayi, Nyanga, Umguza and Zvishavane 3. Crop condition in Mbire and Nyanga 4. Crops pest and diseases outbreaks in Mbire and Nyanga 5. Goat price in Beitbridge, Binga, Bubi, Kariba, Lupane, Matobo, Mbire, Nkayi, Nyanga and Umguza 6. Indigenous chicken price in Beitbridge, Binga, Bubi, Insiza, Kariba, Lupane, Matobo, Nkayi, Nyanga and Umguza 7. Maize price in Beitbridge, Binga, Bubi, Insiza, Kariba, Lupane, Matobo, Mbire, Nkayi, Nyanga and Umguza 8. Pastures availability in Beitbridge, Lupane and Mberengwa 9. Pearl millet Price in Beitbridge, Binga, Bubi, Insiza, Kariba, Lupane, Matobo, Mbire, Nkayi and Umguza 10. Rapoko price in Beitbridge, Chiredzi, Kariba, Mbire, Nyanga and Zvishavane 11. Sheep price in Beitbridge, Nkayi, Nyangaand Umguza 12. Sorghum price in Beitbridge, Binga, Bubi, Insiza, Kariba, Lupane, Matobo, Nyanga and Umguza 13. State of water sources in Mberengwa 14. Vegetation Cover Index (VCI) in Mbire

Page 3 | High Frequency Monitoring Report Bulletin #26 | July 2019 Zvishavane

Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert

Normal Normal Normal Umzingwane

Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert

Normal Normal Normal Normal Normal Normal Normal No data Umguza

Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert

No data Nyanga

Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert

Normal No data No data Nkayi

Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert

Normal No Data Mwenezi

Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert

Normal Normal Normal Normal Normal Mutoko

Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert

Normal Normal Normal Mudzi

Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert

Normal Mbire

Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert

No data No data No data No data Mberengwa

Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert

Normal Normal Normal Normal Normal Matobo

Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert

Normal Normal Lupane

Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert

Normal Normal Normal Normal Kariba

Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert

Normal Normal Normal No data No data No data No data No data Insiza

Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert

Normal Normal Normal Normal Normal Normal Chiredzi

Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert

Normal Normal Binga

Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert

Normal Normal Normal Normal No data No data No data No data No data Bubi

Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert

Normal Normal Normal Beitbridge

Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert Alert

Alarm Normal Month Jan-19 Apr-19 Oct-18 July 18 Feb-19 Nov 18 Nov Dec-18 Aug-18 Mar-19 Mar-18 May-19 May-18 Sept-18 June-19 June-18 April-18 Table 1 below summarises these trends in the overall classification of all 18 districts over the last 12 months. over the last of all 18 districts classification in the overall summarises these trends 1 below Table of the 18 districts Overall Classification Page 4 | High Frequency Monitoring Report Bulletin #26 | July 2019

Implications and Actions related to Resilience Programming

• Vegetation Cover Index was categorized under emergency in Mbire and alert in Alert (Binga, Chiredzi, Insiza, Kariba, Lupane, Matobo, Mberengwa, Mutoko, Mwenezi and Zvishavane,) and Alarm (Beitbridge, Bubi, Nkayi, Umguza and Umzingwane). Community members should be advised against starting un- necessary fires and to make efforts to stop veldt fires where possible. Resources permitting, community member should be equipped with fire beaters to help the stop veldt fire. Fire guards should be made around paddocks and homesteads to prevent extensive damage to pastures and properties.

• Crops and livestock prices were rated under the emergency category in 50% of the targeted districts. However, the high prices reflect inflation and the weakening of the RTGS against the major currencies. Although the prices appear to be high, the prices of livestock and cereal have been lagging behind the inflation rates and the exchange rates of the RTGS $ against major currencies. Farmers are therefore encouraged to form producer groups to enable them to sell collectively and negotiate better prices with buyers.

• Common Diarrhea was reported in Beitbridge, Binga, Chiredzi, Kariba, Lupane, Mberengwa, Mudzi, Mutoko, Mwenezi, Nkayi, Nyanga, Umguza and Zvishavane. The consortia partners across the 18 dis- tricts are encouraged to partners with the Ministry of Health to carry our rigorous public health and hygiene promotion campaigns to reduce the prevalence of diarrheal diseases. Affected community members should be encouraged to use oral rehydration solution while seeking medical attention from the nearest health centre.

• In light of the crop pest and diseases outbreaks reported in Mbire and Nyanga, farmers should be encouraged to employ integrated pest management which gives precedence to the use of cultural, bio- logical and mechanical ways of controlling pest such as the push and pull strategies and only use chemi- cal control as a measure of last resort. Where the use of pesticide is justifiable, the farmers should use protective clothing to avoid human poisoning.

• Five districts were in the Alarm category for state of water sources, as stream and rivers were drying up while nine districts were in the Alert category, with rated under the Emergency category. Distance to water sources was in the Alert category for 12 out of the 17 districts. Households travelling between one and three kilometres for domestic water. The ZRBF consortia and other devel- opment agencies should work closely with the affected communities to rehabilitate non-functional boreholes, drilling new boreholes and installing solar pumps on high yielding boreholes where possible to reduce trekking distances and availing more portable water to the communities.

• Considering the critical unavailability of pastures in almost every district, rated under emergency in Beitbridge, Lupane and Mberengwa (having recorded 10 cattle poverty death cases during the month), farmers should be encouraged to destock their non-productive stock and buy stock feeds to sustain their productive stock. They should not wait until their cattle are heavily emaciated or die to sell them but should make effort to plan and fatten the cattle before selling them, to enable them to realize -bet ter income from their cattle. Farmers with dry stover should be advised to treat their stover before they feed their cattle to improve the nutrition content of their stover. Urea treatment will boost the crude protein of dry stover from 3% CP to 12%CP and will go a long way in maintaining the body throughout the dry season. Page 5 | High Frequency Monitoring Report Bulletin #26 | July 2019 Status Update on Macro-Trigger Indicators Vegetation Condition Index

Figure 1: Vegetation Condition Index for May 2019

The Vegetation Condition Index shows improving vegetation condition in some districts culminating in the following classification:

1. Normal (Mudzi and Nyanga),

2. Alert (Mutoko)

3. Alarm (Beitbridge, Bubi, Binga, Chiredzi, Insiza, Kariba, Lupane, Matobo, Mberengwa, Mwenezi, Nkayi, Umguza, Umzingwane and Zvishavane), and

4. Emergency (Mbire)

District VCI Vaue Crisis Modifier District VCI Vaue Crisis Modifier Beitbridge 0.28 Alarm Mbire 0.15 Emergency Binga 0.41 Alarm Mudzi 0.71 Normal Bubi 0.27 Alarm Mutoko 0.63 Alert Chiredzi 0.38 Alarm Mwenezi 0.31 Alarm Insiza 0.27 Alarm Nkayi 0.33 Alarm Kariba 0.42 Alarm Nyanga 0.68 Normal Lupane 0.41 Alarm Umguza 0.28 Alarm Matobo 0.31 Alarm Umzingwane 0.31 Alarm Mberengwa 0.33 Alarm Zvishavane 0.32 Alarm Page 6 | High Frequency Monitoring Report Bulletin #26 | July 2019

Real-time water levels in major rivers

Water levels figures were not yet available at the time of publication.

Summary of Broad Classification: Micro Trigger Indicators The micro-indicator data from the 17 reported districts reflect conditions in the four broad classes of -in dicators, biophysical, production and access indicators, were mostly in the Alert/Normal category main- taining the same categories from the past month. • Biophysical indicators were in Alert category in 11 out of 17 districts which reported. Four districts were in the Alert stage, an increase from only one district in May. This is a result of pasture availabil- ity which is in Emergency for three districts and Alarm for one district. The rest of the districts are in Alert stage for Pasture availability. State of water sources in Emergency category for Mberengwa district and in Alarm stage for five districts. • Production indicators were in the Alert category for 13 districts up from 12 in the previous month. Districts in the normal category decreased from six to four. Livestock poverty deaths have signifi- cantly reduced to only 10 in Mberengwa and two in Lupane as compared to more than 400 in the previous month. However reported cases of livestock diseases increased with the highest district; Matobo recording 541 cases of which 455 were fowl pox cases. Water borne diseases in Emergency for 15 districts and Alarm for the remaining two also contributed to this classification of production indicators. • Access indicators were in the Alert category for 15 districts and two districts were in the Alarm stage mainly due to the increase in the livestock trekking distances and distance to water sources for households as water sources dry up in the dry season. • Seven districts were in the Emergency stage for trade indicators mainly due to the price distortions on the markets. Four districts were in the alarm category and districts which reported a normal cat- egory are charging in United states dollars for all livestock.

Trigger Indicator summary for June 2019

District Biophysical Indicators Production Indicators Access Indicators Trade Indicators Beitbridge Alert Alert Alert Emergency Binga Alarm Alert Alert Emergency Bubi Alert Normal Alert Emergency Chiredzi Alarm Alert Alert Alert Insiza Alert Alert Alert Alarm Kariba Alert Alert Alert Emergency Lupane Alert Alert Alert Alarm Matobo Alert Alert Alert Alarm Mberengwa Alarm Alert Alert Normal Mbire Alert Alert Alarm Alarm Mudzi Normal Alert Alert Alert Mutoko Normal Alert Alert Alert Mwenezi Alarm Normal Alert Normal Nkayi Alert Alert Alert Emergency Nyanga Alert Alert Alarm Emergency Umguza Alert Normal Alert Emergency Umzingwane Alert Normal Alert Alert Zvishavane Alert Alert Alert Normal Page 7 | High Frequency Monitoring Report Bulletin #26 | July 2019

Detailed Micro Trigger Indicators Update

Biophysical Trigger indicators

Biophysical trigger indicator summary for June 2019

Biophysical Indicators District Pastures Availability Rainfall State of Water Sources Beitbridge 1 0 3 Binga 2 No data 3 Bubi 2 0 2 Chiredzi 2 No data 3 Insiza 2 0 3 Kariba 2 0 3 Lupane 1 0 3 Matobo 2 0 2 Mberengwa 1 0 1 Mbire 3 0 3 Mudzi 3 0 4 Mutoko 3 0 4 Mwenezi 2 No data 3 Nkayi 3 0 2 Nyanga 3 0 3 Umguza 4 0 2 Zvishavane 3 0 2

• Pasture availability was in Emergency category in Beitbridge, Lupane and Mberengwa dis- tricts. Five (5) districts were in the Alert category as it is the dry season and pastures are depleted.

• Five districts were in the Alarm category for State of water sources while nine districts were in the Alert category. Mberengwa district was in the Emergency category Page 8 | High Frequency Monitoring Report Bulletin #26 | July 2019

Production Trigger indicators

Production trigger indicator summary for June 2019

Production Indicators District Crops Pest Crop Condition Livestock Body Number Reported Cases Reported Cases and Diseases Condition Livestock of Livestock of Waterborne Outbreaks Poverty Deaths Diseases Diseases Beitbridge 3 3 2 0 89 306 Binga No data No data 2 0 0 224 Bubi 3 No data 2 0 10 88 Chiredzi 2 3 2 0 40 865 Insiza No data No data 2 0 14 83 Kariba 3 3 3 0 53 343 Lupane No data No data 2 2 48 187 Matobo No data No data 2 0 541 109 Mberengwa 3 4 2 10 74 420 Mbire No data No data 2 0 0 299 Mudzi No data No data 2 0 24 384 Mutoko 3 3 2 0 44 554 Mwenezi 3 3 2 0 0 263 Nkayi 3 No data 2 0 4 285 Nyanga No data No data No data 0 39 424 Umguza 3 No data 2 0 1 295 Zvishavane 3 3 2 0 0 331

• was in the Alert category for crop pests and diseases. citing an outbreak of FAW which is difficult to control as farmers cannot afford to purchase the chemicals required. • Fifteen districts were in the Alert category for livestock body condition, mainly due to inadequate pasture and high livestock trekking distances for water. • Livestock poverty deaths significantly reduced this month; a welcome development as only Mberengwa district was in the Alert category with 10 deaths recorded. Lupane recorded two deaths and the rest of the 15 districts had no deaths. • Four districts; were in the Alarm stage for livestock diseases. Nine districts were in the alert stage, Newcastle, lumpy skin and heartwater being reported in almost all the districts. Fowl pox had the highest cases in Matobo where 455 cases were recorded. • Fifteen districts were in the Emergency category for water borne diseases, with high case of up to 865 common diarrhoea cases in Chiredzi an increase from 560 in the previous month. Page 9 | High Frequency Monitoring Report Bulletin #26 | July 2019

Access Trigger Indicators

Access trigger indicator summary for June 2019

Access Indicators District Distances to Water Number of Meals School Attendance Water for Livestock Sources for Households Trekking Distance Beitbridge 1 2 3 1 Binga 1 2 No data 5 Bubi 2.5 2 4 10 Chiredzi 1.49 2 3 2.11 Insiza 3 2 4 3 Kariba 3 2 No data 8 Lupane 3 2 4 3 Matobo 3 2 3 4 Mberengwa 2.79 2 4 3.42 Mbire No data 2 No data 5 Mudzi 3 2 4 3.4 Mutoko 2 2 4 3 Mwenezi 1.94 2 3 2.94 Nkayi No data 2 4 5 Nyanga No data 2 No data 5 Umguza 2.5 2 4 7 Zvishavane 1.12 2 4 1.98

• Distance to water sources was in the Alert category for 12 out of the 17 districts. Households travel- ling between one and three kilometres for domestic water.

• Seven districts were in the Alarm category for livestock trekking distance with cattle in Bubi trekking an average of 10 kilometres for water. Eight districts were in the Alert category, water sources are reduced as the dry season continues.

• Seventeen districts where households were eating an average of 2 meals a day, were in the Alert category. Due to increase in prices of food commodities, households have reduced meals to two per day to cope.

• School attendance was in the normal category in most districts except Chiredzi, Beitbridge, Mwenezi which were in the Alert category. Page 10 | High Frequency Monitoring Report Bulletin #26 | July 2019

Trade Trigger Indicators

Trade trigger indicator summary for June 2019

Trade Indicators District Cattle Price Goat Price Indigenous Maize Pearl Rapoko Sheep Sorghum Chicken Price Millet Price Price Price Price Price Beitbridge No data No data No data No data No data No data No data No data Binga 1200 120 20 30 30 No data 120 30 Bubi 1400 150 20 20 20 No data 180 20 Chiredzi 277.01 24.03 3.88 4.81 3.95 4.69 44.49 3.74 Insiza 500 60 15 13 18 20 179 19 Kariba 1500 100 20 25 40 40 100 30 Lupane 686 70 11 14 14 10 90 14 Matobo 575 77 14 14 20 18 114 20 Mberengwa 400 40 5 5 6 10 55 6 Mbire 1300 100 10 13 No data No data 150 8 Mudzi 260 23 4 4 4 6 36 4 Mutoko 300 20 3 5 8 8 30 8 Mwenezi 307.61 28.26 4.37 4.22 4.13 7.39 50.75 4.02 Nkayi 2500 250 25 20 25 No data 300 No data Nyanga 250 90 20 15 No data 40 250 0 Umguza 600 300 30 30 25 No data 425 25 Zvishavane 400 40 5 2.5 5 3 60 3

• Cattle prices were in the Emergency category in six districts. Although regarded as emergency in the High Frequency Monitoring System Definitions; these prices are normal given the prevailing eco- nomic environment. Most districts have resorted to pegging cattle prices in USD hence the normal categorisation.

• Nine districts were in the Emergency category for Goat prices with goats selling for 300rtgs dollars in Umguza.

• Pearl millet prices were in the emergency categorisation in eight (8) districts. Most farmers are with- holding the grain for personal consumption in response to the poor harvests.

The price increases in all the highlighted commodities was mainly due to the weakening of the bond notes against the US dollar and a response to the general increase in prices of goods. Most districts in the normal category have pegged their prices in USD and those with prices below 10 are also in USD. Page 11 | High Frequency Monitoring Report Bulletin #26 | July 2019

Annex 1: Flood monitoring thresholds for water level in selected rivers

River water flow categorisation

Station River Site Province Maximum Unit Normal Alert Trigger 1 Alarm Emergency number flow/level Trigger 3 Trigger 2 A38 Gwayi Dahlia Mat North 147 m3/s <66.15 66.15 88.2 117.6 B35 Limpopo Beit Bridge Mat South 6 m3/s <2.7 2.7 3.6 4.8 C109 Musengezi Chidodo Mash 7.2 m3/s <3.24 3.24 4.32 5.76 Central C59 Sanyati Copper Midlands 2320 m3/s <1044 1044 1392 1856 Queen C61 Manyame Chinhoyi Mash West 16.5 m3/s <7.425 7.425 9.9 13.2 Bridge C68 Musengezi Centenary Mash 80.7 m3/s <36.315 36.315 48.42 64.56 Central D75 Mazowe Mazowe Mash 577 m3/s <259.65 259.65 346.2 461.6 Bridge Central E130 Odzi Odzi Gorge Manicaland 383 m3/s <172.35 172.35 229.8 306.4 E21 Save Condo Dam Manicaland 2853 m3/s <1283.85 1283.85 1711.8 2282.4 E74 Runde Confluence 2021 m3/s <909.45 909.45 1212.6 1616.8 with Tokwe ZGP25 Zambezi Victoria Mat North 9352 m3/s <4208.4 4208.4 5611.2 7481.6 Falls Crisis modifier range < 45% 45.1%