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Analysing the Global Effects of Changing Diets on Nitrogen and Phosphorus Runoff to Surface Waters

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Analysing the Global Effects of Changing Diets on Nitrogen and Phosphorus Runoff to Surface Waters Analysing the global effects of changing diets on nitrogen and phosphorus runoff to surface waters Marloes Fröling MSc Thesis in Environmental Sciences 2016, June F. Lamiot (2005) Supervised by: Prof. Dr. Ir. W (Wim) de Vries and Dr. Ir. J (Hans) Kros Course code: ESA-80426 Environmental Systems Analysis Analysing the global effects of changing diets on nitrogen and phosphorus runoff to surface waters Marloes Fröling MSc Thesis in Environmental Sciences 2016, June "No part of this thesis may be reproduced without contacting the Environmental Systems Analysis Group" Supervisor(s): Examiners: 1) Prof. Dr. Ir. W (Wim) de Vries (ESA) 1st: Prof. Dr. Ir. W (Wim) de Vries [email protected] 2) Dr. Ir. J (Hans) Kros (Alterra) 2nd: Prof. Dr. HBJ (Rik) Leemans [email protected] Preface This thesis has been carried out from November 2015 till May 2016. The research proposal was already written in June 2015, due to the inclusion of other university courses in between. The whole thesis process has taken place at Wageningen University and research centre (WUR) at the Environmental System Analysis (ESA) department in the Lumen building. The thesis subject partially originated through my interest in different human diets and their influence on the global environment, due to my personal dietary choice of being a vegetarian since 2002. My supervisors, Wim de Vries (WUR) and Hans Kros (Alterra), motivated me to include different dietary scenarios to analyse the effects on phosphorus flows, focusing on runoff into surface waters, while working with a fast diet calculator. This calculator, originally focussing on nitrogen flows, was developed earlier by Alterra with a former MSc student (Jia Wei) in cooperation with German researchers (Lutz Breuer and David Windhorst). This study has provided me with more insight in the global food distribution, consumption and production process, along with their effects on the environment. Most literature was provided by my supervisors, while the rest was obtained by google scholar. Due to the work of Jia Wei in 2014, I had a simpler start with the fast diet calculator, although during the process I had to overcome many obstacles as well. These included the further calculator development, the removal of previous errors and the struggle with data sets regarding the dietary scenarios. This whole process included many ups and downs. I would like to thank some people for helping me during the process. At first, my supervisors Wim and Hans, who provided me with information and a wider perspective on the whole N and P flow process. Furthermore I would like to acknowledge Jan Cees Voogd, a DLO HBO Researcher of Alterra. He provided the fast diet calculator with updated FAO database values and helped me with analysing the dietary scenarios. Kees Aarts and Eric Schmitt of ‘Protix Biotechnology’ provided me with insight information in the process when using insect protein as a substitute for meat intake. In the context of making this process sufficient and sustainable, I am a big supporter of the insect protein use in human diets. I would like to thank them both for their cooperation. Hopefully this will lead to an interesting collaboration between WUR and Protix in the future. Then, to my fellow ESA students, who did not only brought laughter and fun into the group but also helped out when I struggled in the process. In the last 6 months, they became not only my colleagues, but also my friends. This is something I value very much. As an addition to this, I would like to specially thank my family and my boyfriend, who stood by me during the ups and downs in the process. I cannot express how lucky I feel having them around. Thereby I would like to dedicate this thesis report to them and to my uncle, Peter Fröling, who unfortunately is no longer with us anymore. He was one of the main reasons I started the study Environmental Sciences at Wageningen University in the first place. Marloes Fröling 1 Table of Contents Preface ...................................................................................................................................1 List of figures .........................................................................................................................4 List of tables ...........................................................................................................................5 List of abbreviations ...............................................................................................................8 Summary .............................................................................................................................. 10 1. Introduction ................................................................................................................. 12 1.1 Background ............................................................................................................ 12 1.1.1 History of population changes and related N and P use since 1900 .................. 12 1.1.2 An expected growing food demand in the future .............................................. 13 1.1.3 Increased environmental impact and decreased phosphorous reserves.............. 13 1.2 Problem statement .................................................................................................. 15 1.2.1 Strategies to increase the N and P use efficiency in food chains ....................... 15 1.2.2 Impacts of dietary changes .............................................................................. 16 1.3 Aim of the study ..................................................................................................... 18 1.3.1 Research objective........................................................................................... 18 1.3.2 Research questions .......................................................................................... 18 1.3.3 Thesis approach ............................................................................................... 19 2. Literature review ......................................................................................................... 20 2.1 The N and P cycle .................................................................................................. 20 2.1.1 N cycle ............................................................................................................ 20 2.1.2 P cycle ............................................................................................................ 20 2.1.3 Study boundaries ............................................................................................. 21 2.2 Current global nitrogen and phosphorus inputs and outputs and related use efficiencies ........................................................................................................................ 22 2.2.1 Global nitrogen budgets for agricultural land ................................................... 23 2.2.2 Phosphorus input, phosphorus output and phosphorus use efficiency ............... 26 2.3 Current global nitrogen and phosphorus losses to surface waters related to surplus . 28 2.3.1 Nitrogen losses related to surplus .................................................................... 28 2.3.2 Phosphorus losses related to surplus ................................................................ 30 2.4 NUE, PUE and feed conversion ratios of various animal species including an insects 31 2.4.1 Global use of insects as a diet ......................................................................... 31 2.4.2 Advantages...................................................................................................... 31 2.4.3 Calculation approach ....................................................................................... 32 2.4.4 Literature search .............................................................................................. 34 3. Methodology fast diet calculator ................................................................................. 40 3.1 Overall approach .................................................................................................... 40 3.2 Study regions, food group and dietary scenarios ..................................................... 41 3.2.1 Study regions .................................................................................................. 41 3.2.2 Food groups .................................................................................................... 42 3.2.3 Dietary scenarios ............................................................................................. 43 3.3 Approaches, assumptions and relevant databases .................................................... 44 3.4 Details on calculation procedures ........................................................................... 48 2 3.4.1 Abbreviations applied in the calculations and main mass balance equations .... 48 3.4.2 Step 1: Calculate the future supply of food crops and animal product in study regions 50 3.4.3 Step 2: Calculate the feed crop supply in response to changes in animal product consumption in study regions ....................................................................................... 52 3.4.4 Step 3: Calculate the food and feed crop supply in study regions ..................... 52 3.4.5 Step 4: Calculate the crop and animal production in study regions ................... 52 3.4.6 Step 5: Calculate and validate future nitrogen and phosphorus amount in study regions 54 3.4.7 Step
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