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Scenario Analysis for Nutrient Emission Reduction in the European Inland Waters

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Scenario Analysis for Nutrient Emission Reduction in the European Inland Waters Home Search Collections Journals About Contact us My IOPscience Scenario analysis for nutrient emission reduction in the European inland waters This content has been downloaded from IOPscience. Please scroll down to see the full text. 2014 Environ. Res. Lett. 9 125007 (http://iopscience.iop.org/1748-9326/9/12/125007) View the table of contents for this issue, or go to the journal homepage for more Download details: IP Address: 169.230.243.252 This content was downloaded on 01/03/2015 at 21:54 Please note that terms and conditions apply. Environmental Research Letters Environ. Res. Lett. 9 (2014) 125007 (13pp) doi:10.1088/1748-9326/9/12/125007 Scenario analysis for nutrient emission reduction in the European inland waters F Bouraoui1, V Thieu1,2, B Grizzetti1, W Britz3 and G Bidoglio1 1 European Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC), Ispra (VA), Italy 2 Present address University Pierre et Marie Curie, UMR 7619 Metis, Paris, France 3 Institute for Food and Resource Economics, University Bonn, Germany E-mail: [email protected] Received 30 July 2014, revised 4 November 2014 Accepted for publication 13 November 2014 Published 18 December 2014 Abstract Despite a large body of legislation, high nutrient loads are still emitted in European inland waters. In the present study we evaluate a set of alternative scenarios aiming at reducing nitrogen and phosphorus emissions from anthropogenic activities to all European Seas. In particular, we tested the full implementation of the European Urban Waste Water Directive, which controls emissions from point source. In addition, we associated the full implementation of this Directive with a ban of phosphorus-based laundry detergents. Then we tested two human diet scenarios and their impacts on nutrient emissions. We also developed a scenario based on an optimal use of organic manure. The impacts of all our scenarios were evaluated using a statistical model of nitrogen and phosphorus fate (GREEN) linked to an agro-economic model (CAPRI). We show that the ban of phosphorus-based laundry detergents coupled with the full implementation of the Urban Waste Water Directive is the most effective approach for reducing phosphorus emissions from human based activities. Concerning nitrogen, the highest reductions are obtained with the optimized use of organic manure. S Online supplementary data available from stacks.iop.org/ERL/9/125007/mmedia Keywords: nitrogen emissions, phosphorus emissions, scenarios, Europe’s waters, models, GREEN 1. Introduction threat to surface water, groundwater, lakes and transitional water quality. According to EEA (2012) diffuse pollution In the European Union, despite a large and strict body of from agriculture is a significant pressure for, at least, 40% and legislation, many surface and ground water bodies are still 30% of rivers and lakes, respectively. It has also been threatened by high concentrations of nitrogen and phosphorus reported that at least 30% of groundwater bodies are at risk of (Bouraoui and Grizzetti 2011, Sutton et al 2011, Grizzetti not achieving the required quality objectives by 2015 (Hér- et al 2012). The Water Framework Directive (WFD, Directive ivaux et al 2013). 2000/60/EC 2000) requires Member States (MSs) to ensure Nitrogen losses from agriculture are mainly controlled by that all surface and groundwater bodies are in good ecological the Nitrates Directive (Directive 91/676/EEC 1991). After and chemical status by 2015. However, a large number of more than 20 years of implementation, the Directive was water bodies will not reach the required objectives (EC 2012). successful in reducing nitrogen surplus in many countries Agriculture remains a major source of pressure on water with large specialized farming activities such as The Neth- bodies, and diffuse nutrient pollution is still an important erlands, Belgium, France, etc (Bouraoui and Grizzetti 2011). Despite this large decrease in nutrient inputs, many rivers are still exhibiting high nitrate concentrations, due to the inertia Content from this work may be used under the terms of the of the environment (combination of storage, lag time) to Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 licence. Any further distribution of this work must maintain attribution to the author(s) and the respond to these changes, and many water bodies (lakes and title of the work, journal citation and DOI. coastal areas) are still affected by eutrophication associated 1748-9326/14/125007+13$33.00 1 © 2014 IOP Publishing Ltd Environ. Res. Lett. 9 (2014) 125007 F Bouraoui et al with excessive nutrients. Evaluating the implementation of the Our study aims at investigating the impact of several Nitrates Directive for the period 2004–2007, the European management options and EU environmental policies to reduce Commission (EC 2010) indicated that 14% of the surface water nutrients exported to the European Seas. The study focuses on monitoring stations exhibited increasing concentrations while the short term evaluation of the management alternatives 55% showed decreasing trends. In its latest report concerning considering the time horizon 2020, which is relevant for the the 2008–2011 reporting period the European Commission general Europe 2020 strategy. First we will analyse the effects (EC 2013) indicates that 27% and 19% of the freshwater of the full implementation of the Urban Waste Water Directive monitoring stations of surface waters and groundwater, to provide an insight on the potential reduction achievable. We respectively, are showing increasing nitrate concentration will then evaluate the impact of banning phosphorus-based trends from the previous reporting period (2007–2011). detergents while fully implementing the Urban Waste Water Point sources are a significant source of pressure for less Directive. We then investigate two sets of additional scenarios than 22% of rivers and groundwater bodies, however affect- dealing with the impact of a reduction of meat consumption in ing about 40% of transitional water bodies (EEA 2012). The Europe based of the recommendations by the World Health Urban Waste Water Directive (Directive 91/271/EEC 1991) Organization (WHO 2003) and the World Cancer Research was shown to have been very successful in reducing phos- Foundation (WCRF 2007). A final scenario evaluates the phorus losses to water bodies, and to a lower extent also impact of an optimized use of manure as a fertilizer. nitrogen losses (Bouraoui and Grizzetti 2011). Additional All our analyses are based on a spatially explicit con- efforts are still required by some MSs to fulfil their legal ceptual model of nutrient fate (GREEN, Grizzetti et al 2012) obligations with respect to the Urban Waste Water Directive. taking into account both diffuse and point sources of nutri- Reducing and controlling the presence of nutrients in ents. We also make use of the Common Agricultural Policy European freshwater calls for management actions both on Regionalised Impact (CAPRI) agro-economic model in order point and diffuse sources. Research has focused mostly on the to define boundary conditions for nutrient use based on likely development and evaluation of measures at the local scale to scenarios of land use, development of the Common Agri- reduce nutrient losses to water bodies. However, with the cultural Policy and trade options (Britz and Witzke 2008). We globalization of food trade, a larger scale of analysis is focus on short term predictions in order to limit the uncer- required (Lassaletta et al 2014). Only few studies have tainties of long term predictions in particular those involving focused on modelling the impact of alternative management changes in land use and production system. The first part of approaches on reducing nutrient loadings to water bodies at the paper presents all the evaluated scenarios and their asso- the large scale (Setizinger et al 2002, Billen et al 2013, Reder ciated assumptions. We also detail the agro-economic and the et al 2013). Reder et al (2013) evaluated scenarios based on conceptual nutrient models. Then the results of the efficiency the assumption of the ‘economy first’ describing a globali- of all scenarios are presented followed by a discussion on the zation and liberalization of the economy for the horizon 2050. way forward. Their storyline was derived through stakeholders’ participa- tion. The impact on the emissions from point sources was estimated based on expert judgment while the change in land 2. Methods and data use was simulated using a land use model. The authors concluded that total nitrogen loadings will remain similar for 2.1. Overview Northern Europe and will decrease for the rest of Europe. They also predicted an increase of total phosphorus loading Scenarios are descriptions of possible futures reflecting dif- due to larger contributions from the domestic and industrial ferent perspectives on the past, the present, and the future sectors. Billen et al (2013), based on a simplified repre- (van Notten et al 2003). In the present study, scenarios are sentation of the nitrogen cascade, evaluated the impact of a used as a coherent, consistent and plausible description of a scenario mimicking the shift to an organic production and a future state of the system under investigation built to avoid second scenario based on a demitarian diet. They showed that unsustainable developments. Our scenarios can be described through a reorganization of the agro-food system and recon- as forecasting as we use the present situation as the starting necting local food production and food consumption it is point, and they are quantitative, not descriptive, focusing on possible to provide sufficient food for the whole world while the regional scale. reducing losses of reactive nitrogen in the environment. Seit- The development of a consistent set of scenarios raises zinger et al (2002) evaluated the impacts of fertilizer reduction the issue of the scale of the analysis. Worldwide dynamics due to a change of human diets in two rich industrialized controlling economic and demographic trends call for global regions (Europe and North America) on dissolved nitrogen scale assessments, although they are not able to represent exports for the horizon 2050 using the GlobalNews model.
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