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Vulnerability and Risk of Impacts of Flatfishes to Climate Change

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Vulnerability and Risk of Impacts of Flatfishes to Climate Change Vulnerability and risk of impacts of flatfishes to climate change William W. L. Cheung Nippon Foundation-UBC Nereus Program, Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, UBC 2015-2017 –the warmest years on record The future ocean What does CO2 emission do to the oceans? Temperature Gattuso, Magnan, Billé, Cheung, Howes, Joos, et al. 2015 Science. Flatfishes and their fisheries under climate change Physical Biological Social/Economics From: Sumaila, Cheung, Lam, Pauly, Herrick (2011) Nature Climate Change Temperature and oxygen constraining fish production From: Pörtner & Farrell (2008) Science • Theory predicts that aquatic ectotherms distribute themselves to maximize their growth performance. Predicted temperature preference of exploited flatfishes (Pleuronectiformes) based on their biogeography Polar Tropical Predicted temperature preference of exploited flatfishes (Pleuronectiformes) based on their biogeography Polar Tropical Climate-shifted Latitude distribution Invasion Warming Country A Hypoxia Country B Decrease in primary production Local Protected Area extinction Original distribution Depth Global catches of flatfishes (Pleuronectiformes) Future catches? Which species will be more at risk? Subsistence Data source: Sea Around Us This talk 1. Vulnerabilities and risk of impacts to climate change; 2. Projections of changing flatfish distribution and potential fisheries production; 3. Adapting to climate effects on flatfishes. This talk 1. Vulnerabilities and risk of impacts to climate change; 2. Projections of changing flatfish distribution and potential fisheries production; 3. Adapting to climate effects on flatfishes. Framework of assessing vulnerability and risk of impacts Vulnerability Hazards: T, O2, pH Sensitivity: Linf , TP, TG Exposure: Species’ biogeography Adaptive capacity: Fec, LB, DR, HA Risk of climate impacts Adapted from Jones and Cheung 2017. Glob. Chang. Biol. Exposure to hazard (ExV) • Exposure = grid cells that the species is predicted to occur; • Hazard = changes in ocean conditions relative to their past variability: temperature, oxygen, pH; • Pelagic – surface variables; Demersal – bottom variables; • Use multiple ESM outputs to include uncertainties; • Index is based on the mean change relative to variability. &'()(# ) – &'()(# ) !"# = +,-./+,0, .34./+,,, 56 (#.34./+,,,) Fuzzy logic expert system • For each 0.5o x 0.5o spatial grid cell of the world oceans: High (0.75) Heuristic rules Moderate (0.25) Knowledge accumulation Exposure to hazard Index • Example: Greenland Halibut– RCP 8.5 Exposure Sensitivity • Breath of temperature tolerance (TT) – overlaying species distribution of temperature data (Cheung et al. 2013); • Maximum body length (ML) – FishBase and Sealifebase; • Taxonomic group (TG) – sensitivity to ocean acidification. Example: Greenland halibut TG = 12 oC: moderate (0.5) and high (0.5) ML = 80 cm: large (1.0) TG = fishes Sensitivity = low (0.5), moderate (0.5), very high (1) Adaptive capacity • Latitudinal range (LR) – occurrence records; • Depth range (DR) – FishBase and SeaLifeBase; • Fecundity (FE)– FishBase and SeaLifeBase; • Habitat restriction – Association to specific habitats (Cheung et al. 2008) Example: Greenland halibut LR = 46 o: medium (0.13) and large (0.87) DR = 2000 m: very large (1.0) FE = ~45000 eggs: large (0.61), very large (0.39) Adaptive capacity = high (0.87), very high (1.00) Vulnerability index = 39 Low (0.58), moderate (0.25), high (0.72) Risk of impact = 55 • Example: Greenland halibut Risk of impact Exploited flatfishes (Species number = 47) Moderate to high vulnerability and risk of impacts VVUl RCP 2.6 RCP 8.5 RCP 2.6 RCP 8.5 Species with highest estimated risk: Spottail spiny turbot (Psettodes belcheri) West coast sole (Austroglossus microlepis) Spiny turbot (Pettodes bennettii) Vulnerability Exposure to hazards Risk of impacts Vulnerability and risk of impact of 1,074 exploited fishes and invertebrates globally Vulnerability Risk of impact Risk of impact Jones and Cheung 2017. Glob. Chang. Biol. Risk of impacts under RCP 8.5 by Exclusive Economic Zones • Exploited flatfishes (N = 47) Exposure This talk 1. Vulnerabilities and risk of impacts to climate change; 2. Projections of changing flatfish distribution and potential fisheries production; 3. Adapting to climate effects on flatfishes. Dynamic Bioclimate Envelope Model Source: Cheung et al. (2008, 2011); Fernandes et al. (2013) Projected range shifts (centroid shifts) Case study: Northwest Atlantic Witch flounder Projected range shifts (centroid shifts) Case study: Northwest Atlantic Witch flounder Greenland halibut Projected range shifts (centroid shifts) Case study: Northwest Atlantic Witch flounder Greenland halibut Yellowtail flounder Projected range shifts (centroid shifts) Case study: Northwest Atlantic Projected range shifts in North Pacific and Atlantic Oceans RCP 8.5 Case study: Northeast Atlantic Median shift = 16 km decade-1 • Local temperature velocity • Density-dependent effects Based on: Jones and Cheung (2015) ICES J M Sci Scaling between global atmospheric warming and loss of maximum catch potential of flatfishes (N = 47 spp) Paris Agreement Business as usual Based on: Cheung, Reygondeau, Frölicher (2016) Science Regional differences in projected in changes in maximum potential catches RCP 8.5 Change in catch potential (%) Based on: Lam, Cheung et al. (2016) Scientific Report Implications for coastal communities Weatherdon, Ota, Close, Cheung (2016) PLoS One ADAPTING TO CLIMATE CHANGE Potential solutions Protect and restore coastal vegetation LOCAL Eliminate overfishing Mitigate pollution Climate impacts on effectiveness of MPA ”Climate-proofing” MPA Now Future Centroid Species shift (CS) MPA MPA MPA size (s) Species ”Climate-proofing” MPA Now Future Centroid Species shift (CS) MPA MPA MPA size (s) Species For MPA to be climate-proof: s > CS Climate-proofing global MPAs Climate-proofing global MPAs th Percentile of range shifts by 2050: 25 50th 75th Climate-proofing global MPAs th Percentile of range shifts by 2050: 25 50th 75th North Sea Plaice Box Mariculture of flatfishes Mariculuture Data source: Sea Around Us Mariculture suitable environment Hippoglossus hippoglossus Paralichthys olivaceus Solea solea Solea sengalensis Unsuitable Suitable Data source: Oyinlola, Cheung, et al. (in review) Potential mariculture area and countries currently producing flatfishes Data source: Oyinlola, Cheung, et al. (in review) Potential mariculture area and countries currently producing flatfishes • Other constraints on sustainability: ecological, social, economic, technological? Data source: Oyinlola, Cheung, et al. (in review) Summary • Exploited flatfishes have moderate to high risk of impacts under climate change; • Distribution shifts across their ranges under climate change; • Reduction in maximum catch potential by up to 20% under business-as-usual global warming; • A portfolio of solutions (mitigation and adaptation) are needed to manage risk of climate change on flatfishes and their fisheries. Acknowledgement Challenges to transboundary fisheries management E.g. Pacific halibut (RCP 8.5) + 2100 + - + + 2010 - - - - + Abrantes, Cheung (in prep).
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