Somalia Drought Impact & Needs Assessment VOLUME I Synthesis Report Cover: © UNDP Somalia Inside Cover: © UNDP Somalia/Dreamcatcher Table of Contents Foreword 2 Acknowledgments 4 List of Figures 5 List of Tables 6 List of Boxes 7 List of Acronyms 8 Executive Summary 10 Introduction 10 Pre-Disaster Context 11 DINA Objectives, Approach and Scope 12 Methodology 15 2016-2017 Drought 18 Background on Droughts in Somalia 18 Overview of the Current Drought 19 Rainfall Analysis 20 Summary of Disaster Effects and Impacts: Damages, Losses and Needs 23 Overview of Pre-Drought Conditions, Drought Impact and Recovery Needs by Sector 28 Humanitarian Impact, Immediate Response, and Linkages to the Humanitarian Response Plan 36 The Human Impact 40 The Human Impact Framework 41 Deprivations in Living Conditions and Access to Basic Services 42 Livelihoods: Agriculture Losses, Unemployment and Loss of Income and Productive Resources 45 Food Security: Food Access and Malnutrition 47 Gender 47 Profile of Populations Affected, Vulnerable Groups and Social Protection 48 Poverty and Human Development 51 Final Observations 52 Macroeconomic Impact 54 Pre-drought Context and Baseline for the Sector 56 Drought Impact 59 Reforms Needed to Spur Growth 69 Cross-cutting Considerations 69 Recovery Needs and Strategy 70 Summary of Sector Assessments 74 Productive Sectors 74 Agriculture – Irrigation and Rain-fed Crop Production 74 Agriculture – Livestock 77 Agriculture – Fisheries 82 Physical Sectors 84 Water Supply and Sanitation 84 Transport 87 Environment, Clean Energy, and Natural Resource Management 89 Social Sectors 92 Health 92 Nutrition 96 Education 101 Cross-cutting Themes 105 Food Security 105 Livelihoods and Employment 108 Social Protection and Safety Nets 110 Gender 113 Urban Development and Municipal Services 116 Governance 119 Conflict 123 Displacement 125 Disaster Risk Reduction, Risk Financing and Drought Resilience 131 Drought Recovery Strategy 136 Underlying Conflict Drivers and Stressors for Drought 136 DINA: Rationale, Objectives and Guiding Principles 138 Key Recovery Interventions 141 Implementing the DINA 145 Annex 1: Drought Recovery Action Plan 146 Annex 2: Acknowledgments 154 Foreword Federal Government of Somalia Somalia has made important progress in recent years with the establishment of permanent political institutions and significant improvement in security, paving the way towards a future with greater peace. This is yet, however, to translate into an improvement for the majority of Somali citizens’ food security and nutrition, access to safe water, sanitation, health care and better protection. Following four consecutive poor rainy seasons in 2016 and 2017, the humanitarian situation has deteriorated to a point where over half of the population is in need of assistance, jeopardizing critical gains made in recent years. In early 2017, the country was again faced with the risk of famine, only six years after a famine caused the deaths of hundreds of thousands, provoked unspeakable human suffering and put the lives of millions more at risk. While the famine was successfully averted in 2017 thanks to Somali leadership and extensive international support, the risk of famine remains, and the cyclical droughts and increasingly erratic weather patterns continue to prevent achievement of vital long-term development goals needed to lift Somalia out of poverty and insecurity. Given the need for concerted action at this critical juncture, the Federal Government of Somalia sought the support of the World Bank, the European Union, and the United Nations in conducting a comprehensive Drought Impact Needs Assessment (DINA) and Recovery and Resilience Framework (RRF) to assess the impact of the ongoing drought on lives, livelihoods and sectors of the economy, while identifying preventative and sustainable development solutions to promote resilience to disaster risks and climate change trends and more effectively prevent the recurrence of cyclical famine risk in Somalia. The report has benefitted throughout the process from the constructive and informative engagement of the Federal Member States and the Benadir Regional Administration. Their input has been crucial, given that much of the work of the subsequent resilient recovery program will be delivered by subnational authorities. As the report will detail, the drought has caused damages and losses across a number of sectors totaling over USD 3.25 billion, requiring recovery interventions estimated at USD 1.77 billion. Agriculture (irrigation and rain-fed crops) and urban development and municipal services have been identified as the sectors with the highest recovery needs, representing 28 percent and 17 percent of total needs, respectively. The results of the DINA will feed into an RRF that will define a multi-sectoral approach to identifying key development policies and investment priorities to prevent the recurrence of cyclical famine risk, tied to an associated financing framework, situated within Somalia’s National Development Plan (NDP). The DINA is an important building block for the future vision of Somalia. We appreciate the support of our partners in undertaking this exercise within a tight timeframe, allowing for the timely initiation of much-needed recovery and resilience-building action, and we look forward to working with them on this strategic initiative. Gamal Mohamed Hassan Minister of Planning, Investment and Economic Development Federal Government of Somalia 2 | Somalia Drought Impact & Needs Assessment The European Union, the United Nations, and the World Bank When alarms were raised of famine in early 2017, the collective response by national and international partners demonstrated a clear commitment to never again let a famine unfold in Somalia. The massive scale-up of life-saving assistance throughout the country by local communities, civil society, youth groups, diaspora, private sector, local and national authorities and international partners reflects a level of solidarity and efficiency in the national and international aid system which was not a given just a few years ago. Today, we know that collectively, we can prevent famine in Somalia. We also know that cyclical droughts in the Horn of Africa will continue to drive high levels of need in Somalia if urgent investments are not made in strengthening resilience to future disasters and effectively preventing the risk of famine in a sustainable manner. This has already been done in most other countries in the region and around the world, and we know it is feasible in Somalia. The coming years present a critical window of opportunity to build on the achievements and gains made nationally and internationally among development and humanitarian partners to effectively reduce risk and vulnerability among those most in need in Somalia. When the Federal Government of Somalia requested the European Union, the United Nations, and the World Bank to support a comprehensive assessment of the drought, we immediately joined a team of over 80 Government staff from Federal and Member State levels who worked across 18 sectors on the Drought Impact and Needs Assessment (DINA). In fewer than seven weeks, the DINA team sifted through data, traveled to some of the most impacted areas, and validated findings using innovative remote sensing technology. What emerges is a DINA that goes beyond determining the damages, losses and resulting needs; it aims for a multi-sectoral, phased recovery strategy focused on strengthening resilience to future disasters and effectively preventing the cyclical risk of famine. It is our hope that the recommendations in this DINA can inform efforts by the Government of Somalia and its many partners to enhance the collective understanding of the dynamics and drivers of recurrent climatic emergencies in the country, while strengthening national capacity and the resilience of the Somali people to break the cycle of disasters and the food insecurity that too often is the outcome. Bella Bird World Bank Country Director for Somalia, Tanzania, Burundi and Malawi Peter de Clercq Deputy Special Representative of the United Nations Secretary General to Somalia Veronique Lorenzo EU Ambassador to Somalia 3 Acknowledgments The DINA was prepared under the overall leadership of the Ministry of Planning, Investment and Economic Development in partnership with the Ministry of Humanitarian Affairs & Disaster Management of the Federal Government of Somalia (FGS) and the Federal Member States and the Benadir Regional Administration. It was undertaken with strategic support from the World Bank Group, the United Nations and the European Union, within the framework of the 2008 Joint EU-UN-WB Declaration on Post-Crisis Assessments and Recovery Planning. Financial support has been provided by the European Union under the ACP-EU Natural Disaster Risk Reduction program implemented by the WB-led Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery. Ipsos provided remote sensing and survey support, and Courage Services, Inc. provided remote sensing services. More than 180 national and international experts from the FGS, Federal Member States, the Benadir Regional Administration, the World Bank Group, the United Nations and the European Union worked intensively across 18 sector/ cross-cutting groups to collect, validate and analyze data, conduct field visits to consult with sub-national authorities, international and national non-governmental organizations and civil society stakeholders, to determine recovery needs and identify interventions