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Russian Foreign Policy After Crimea Ebook2017.Pdf IT DOES NOT MRAusTsiTa’sE FRor eHigOn WPol icy After Crimea: SHLoOwW to UYnOdeUrst aGnOd a nd ALdNdG rAeS sYsO UI tD ON'T STOP M PONARS Eurasia Policy Perspectives September 2017 Russian Foreign Policy after Crimea HOW TO UNDERSTAND AND ADDRESS IT PONARS Eurasia POLICY PERSPECTIVES SEPTEMBER 2017 PONARS Eurasia is an international network of scholars advancing new approaches to research on security, politics, economics, and society in Russia and Eurasia. PONARS Eurasia is based at the Institute for European, Russian and Eurasian Studies (IERES) at the George Washington University’s Elliott School of International Affairs. This publication was made possible in part by a grant from Carnegie Corporation of New York. The statements made and views expressed are solely the responsibility of the authors. Program Directors: Henry E. Hale and Marlene Laruelle Managing Editor: Alexander Schmemann Senior Research Associate: Sufian Zhemukhov PONARSResearch Eu Assistant:rasia Minhaj Abdullah Institute for European, Russian and Eurasian Studies (IERES) Elliott School of International Affairs The George Washington University 1957 E Street NW, Suite 412 Washington, DC 20052 Tel: (202) 994-6340 www.ponarseurasia.org © PONARS Eurasia 2017. All rights reserved Contents About the Authors ix Foreword xi Marlene Laruelle, George Washington University I. Russia’s Views and Perceptions Russia’s Strategic Calculus 3 THREAT PERCEPTIONS AND MILITARY DOCTRINE Dmitry Gorenburg, CNA; Harvard University Russia’s Use of Military Force as a Foreign Policy Tool 9 IS THERE A LOGIC? Samuel Charap, International Institute for Strategic Studies The Need to Massage Egos 15 STATUS POLITICS AS A CRUCIAL ELEMENT OF US-RUSSIA RELATIONS Mikhail Troitskiy, Moscow State Institute of International Relations (MGIMO) Russia’s “Sovereign Globalization” 23 INSULATION, INFLUENCE, AND DECLINE Nigel Gould-Davies, Mahidol University International College, Thailand Is There A Non-West for Russia to Lead? 29 Keith Darden, American University The Russian World, Post-Truth, and Europe 33 Andrey Makarychev, University of Tartu (Estonia) II. Russia’s Military Doctrine and Practices Russia’s New Conventional Capability 39 IMPLICATIONS FOR EURASIA AND BEYOND Nikolai Sokov, Middlebury Institute of International Studies Russia’s Conventional Deterrence 45 AN ENHANCED TOOL FOR BOTH WARFIGHTING AND POLITICAL STRATEGY Sergey Minasyan, Caucasus Institute, Armenia v The European Missile Defense System and Russia 51 CAN THERE BE DIALOGUE RATHER THAN AN ARMS RACE? Polina Sinovets, Odessa Mechnikov National University U.S.-Russia Nuclear Lab-to-Lab Cooperation 57 LOOKING BACK ON A QUARTER CENTURY OF CONSTRUCTIVE RELATIONS Alla Kassianova, Stanford University III. Russia and the Word The Soviet Roots of Meddling in U.S. Politics 65 Mark Kramer, Harvard University How and Why the United States and Russia Can Cooperate on Terrorism 71 Ekaterina Stepanova, Institute of World Economy and International Relations (IMEMO), Russian Academy of Sciences The Kremlin’s Arctic Plans 79 MORE GUTTED THAN GRAND Sergei Medvedev, Higher School of Economics, Moscow Tensions with Russia Heat up the Melting Arctic 85 Elizabeth Wishnick, Montclair State University; Columbia University Turkey and Russia, Erdoğan and Putin 91 Ayşe Zarakol, University of Cambridge IV. Russia’s Soft Power Projection Eurasia, Eurasianism, Eurasian Union 99 TERMINOLOGICAL GAPS AND OVERLAPS Marlene Laruelle, George Washington University Reassembling Lands or Reconnecting People? 105 GEOPOLITICS AND BIOPOWER IN RUSSIA’S NEIGHBORHOOD POLICY Andrey Makarychev, University of Tartu (Estonia) Russia “Understanders” in Europe 111 DISCOURSES, COMMUNICATION, CONSEQUENCES Andrey Makarychev and Stefano Braghiroli, University of Tartu (Estonia) vi V. An Uneasy Partnership with China Mistrust Sets Low Ceiling for Russia-China Partnership 119 DECONSTRUCTING THE PUTIN-XI JINPING RELATIONSHIP Pavel K. Baev, Peace Research Institute, Oslo (PRIO) Is Russia Coming to Terms with China’s “Silk Road”? 125 Irina Kobrinskaya, IMEMO, Russian Academy of Sciences Are China and Russia Teaming Up in Southern Europe? 129 Elizabeth Wishnick, Montclair State University Does North Korea Have A Place in Russia’s “Turn to the East”? 135 Serghei Golunov, Kyushu University (Japan) VI. Russia’s Involvement in Syria and its Implications Can Russia’s Peace Plan for Syria Work? 143 George Gavrilis, Columbia University Russia’s Policy on Syria after the Start of Military Engagement 149 Ekaterina Stepanova, Institute of World Economy and International Relations (IMEMO), Russian Academy of Sciences What Russia's Military Operation in Syria Can Tell Us About Advances in its Capabilities 157 Dmitry Gorenburg, CNA; Harvard University vii About the Authors Pavel K. Baev is Research Professor at the Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO), Norway. Stefano Braghiroli is an ERMOS Post-Doctoral Researcher with CEURUS at the Institute of Government and Politics, University of Tartu, Estonia. Samuel Charap is the Senior Fellow for Russia and Eurasia at the International Institute for Strategic Studies Keith Darden is Associate Professor in the School of International Service at American University. Nigel Gould-Davies is Lecturer and Program Coordinator in International Relations at Mahidol University International College (Thailand). From 2000-10 he served in the British Foreign Office. George Gavrilis is Visiting Research Fellow at the Institute for Religion, Culture, and Public Life at Columbia University. Serghei Golunov is Professor at the Kyushu University Center for Asia-Pacific Future Studies. Dmitry Gorenburg is Senior Research Scientist at CNA Corporation and Associate at the Davis Center for Russian and Eurasian Studies at Harvard University. Alla Kassianova is Senior Research Associate for the Lab-to-Lab book project at the Center for International Security and Cooperation at Stanford University. Irina Kobrinskaya is Senior Research Fellow at the Institute of World Economy and International Relations (IMEMO) at the Russian Academy of Sciences. Mark Kramer is Director of the Cold War Studies Program and Senior Fellow at the Davis Center for Russian and Eurasian Studies, Harvard University. Marlene Laruelle is Research Professor of International Affairs, Director of the Central Asia Program and Co-Director of PONARS Eurasia at George Washington University. Andrey Makarychev is Visiting Professor at the Institute of Government and Politics at the University of Tartu in Estonia. ix Sergei Medvedev is Professor of Political Science at the Higher School of Economics (Moscow). Sergey Minasyan is Deputy Director and Head of the Political Studies Department at the Caucasus Institute, Armenia. Polina Sinovets is Associate Professor at Odessa Mechnikov National University. Polina Sinovets is Associate Professor at Odessa Mechnikov National University. Nikolai Sokov is Senior Fellow at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies, Middlebury Institute of International Studies. Ekaterina Stepanova is Lead Researcher and Head of Peace and Conflict Studies at the Institute of the World Economy & International Relations (IMEMO) and a Professor at the Russian Academy of Sciences. Mikhail Troitskiy is Associate Professor at the Moscow State Institute of International Relations (MGIMO), Senior Associate at the Russian Academy of Sciences, and IMARES Program Professor at the European University at St. Petersburg. Elizabeth Wishnick is Professor of Political Science and Law at Montclair State University and Senior Research Scholar at the Weatherhead East Asian Institute, Columbia University. Ayşe Zarakol is University Lecturer at the University of Cambridge. x Foreword Marlene Laruelle George Washington University This booklet discusses the evolution of Russia’s foreign policy since the dramatic turn of 2014, which deeply impacted the relationship between Russia and Western countries, and Russia’s place in the world more globally. Several authors suggest that Moscow’s behavior is driven by the logic of “self-esteem” policy—that is, it demands recognition by the international scene’s main actors, in particular the United States. From the perspective Moscow publicly advances, the country’s foreign policy and military goals are mostly defensive and seek to ensure the survival of the state; the Kremlin insists on the need for the West to refrain from interfering in what Moscow sees as its sphere of influence and responsibility. However, there have been several cases when Russia has used force against other actors. Over the last few years, it has also demonstrated that it has acquired new conventional-strike capabilities, with potential implications that go far beyond military utility. Russian foreign policy remains focused on Europe and the United States. Moscow looks to improve its soft power tools, targeting Western audiences and potential sympathizers—whether motivated by ideology or pragmatism—as well as to protect what it sees as its challenged sovereignty in the case of Ukraine. If mutual meddling in foreign affairs is nothing new, there are also several areas of potential cooperation between Russia and the West, such as the struggle against terrorism. But it is apparent that Russia hopes for more than restored status in the eyes of the West. It has launched several diplomatic and symbolic initiatives in the Arctic; has to manage a complex relationship with China, based on both concrete cooperation and a low ceiling for more genuine synergies; and has become deeply (re-)involved in the Middle-East,
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