1 Predicting the distribution of the Vulnerable Yellow-breasted Pipit (Anthus chloris) using Species Distribution Modelling Darren W. Pietersen1*, Ian T. Little2, Raymond Jansen3 and Andrew E. McKechnie1 1DST-NRF Centre of Excellence at the Percy FitzPatrick Institute, Department of Zoology and Entomology, University of Pretoria, Private Bag X20, Hatfield, 0028, South Africa 2The Endangered Wildlife Trust, Private Bag X11, Modderfontein, 1645, Johannesburg, South Africa 3Department of Environmental, Water and Earth Sciences, Tshwane University of Technology, Private Bag X680, Pretoria, 0001, South Africa *Address for correspondence: Department of Zoology and Entomology University of Pretoria Private Bag X20 Hatfield 0028
[email protected] +27 82 937 6052 2 Abstract The Yellow-breasted Pipit (Anthus chloris) is endemic to the eastern escarpment of South Africa, marginally entering eastern Lesotho. This species is classified as globally Vulnerable due to a perceived decreasing population size and loss of habitat. We employed Species Distribution Modelling to investigate the predicted range of this species to determine whether additional purportedly suitable habitat exists where this species may be found, and to assess the degree to which habitat loss has affected this species. We used a database of 250 independently obtained and verified sightings to predict the summer breeding distribution of this species and compare our verified sightings and predicted range to the sightings currently in the Second Southern African Bird Atlas Project (SABAP2) database and the latest regional conservation assessment. Our models closely approximate the current distribution of the Yellow-breasted Pipit, and suggest that most of the purportedly suitable habitat is occupied, at least at the macro-scale.