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The College Enrollment Behavior of Class Of The College Enrollment Behavior of Class of 1999 Graduates from the Boston Public Schools: Findings of the Winter 2000 Follow-Up Survey and Comparisons with those for Previous Years Prepared by: lshwar Khatiwada Andrew M. Sum With Sheila Palma Center for Labor Market Studies Northeastern University Prepared for: Boston Private Industry Council April 2001 Table of Contents College Enrollment Rates ofClass of I 999 Boston Public High School Graduates and Historical Trends in College Enrollment ________________ 2 The Logistic Regression Models ofthe College Enrollment Behavior ofClass of 1999 Boston Public High school Graduates _ ________________ 8 Estimating the Likelihood ofCollege Attendance Among the Entire Sample ofGraduates from the ofClass of I 999 IO Predicting the Probability ofCollege Enrollment for Selected High School Graduates From the Class of I 999 I 7 Summary ofFindings and Future Research Recommendations I 9 Appendix A: 2 5 Appendix B: 29 Appendix C: 3 2 (.' ' . ) Introduction The Boston Private Industry Council (PIC) has been actively engaged in the - formulation and implementation of programs in the education and workforce development arenas in the city of Boston since its establishment in the early 1980s. Every year, since the mid 1980s, the PIC has conducted a follow-up survey of all of the graduates of Boston public high schools from the preceding calendar year. The main objective of the follow-up survey is to obtain information on Boston public high school graduates' transition from school to college and work, including information on their college enrollment and employment status. the types of colleges and post secondary training schools attended, their financial aid status, and key characteristics of their jobs, such as hours of work, hourly wages, occupations and industries of their employers. and I their job-related training activities. During the late winter and early spring of 2000, the Boston PIC made an effort to interview each of the nearly 3,000 graduates of Boston public high schools from the Class of 1999. Follow-up interviews were completed with nearly 80% of the graduates. This research paper is devoted to an analysis of the findings of the winter 2000 follow-up survey with respect to the college and post-secondary training school enrollment behavior of Class of 1999 graduates at the time of the survey. Findings on these college enrollment rates will be presented for all high school graduates, for men and women, for graduates in each of from major race-ethnic groups, and for graduates from the exam and non-exam high schools. The college/post-secondary training program enrollment rates for graduates from the Class of 1999 also will be compared to those of graduates from preceding years going back to the late l 980's. The paper also will present key findings of a multivariate statistical analyses of the college enrollment behavior of graduates from the Class of 1999, employing a technique known as logistic regression. The model will be used to identify how the college enrollment behavior of Class of 1999 graduates of Boston public high schools associated with their gender, race-ethnicity, types of high school attended (exam and non-exam schools), their participation in school- to-career programs. and their senior year and summer job experiences. We have designed a set of logistic probability regression models to estimate the probability of college enrollment among Class of 1999 Boston public high school graduates from all high schools combined and from the exam and non-exam schools separately. The findings of this research paper are organized into three main parts. The first part describes the college enrollment status of all graduates and key demographic sub- groups of Class of 1999 Boston public high school graduates, the second part provides findings of the logistic regression models of the probability of college enrollment, and the third part presents a summary of key findings and recommendations for future research. College Enrollment Rates of Class of 1999 Boston Public High School Graduates and Historical Trends in College Enrollment I Findings in Chart 1 display historical trends in college enrollment rates of Boston public high school graduates from 1985 to 1999. Over the past fifteen years (1985-1999), the college enrollment rate of Boston public high school graduates has increased by 17 percentage points from 50 percent in 1985 to 67 percent in 1999, a relative increase of 34% over this fourteen year period. This enrollment growth rate of 34 percent between 1985 and 1999 should be considered a very favorable trend in enrollment. The 67% enrollment rate for graduates from the Class of 1999 matches the U.S. national college enrollment rate; however, the graduates from the Boston public high schools college enrollment rates for Black and Hispanic have clearly outperformed the U.S. national rate of college enrollment for the same race-ethnic groups. The overall college enrollment rate for Boston's public schools was at an all time high of 68% in 1997, but the 67.4% rate in 1999 includes findings for several alternative high schools that were not surveyed in prior years. Adjusting for the expanded universe of high schools in the 2000 follow-up survey, the college enrollment rates for the classes of 1997 and 1999 were basically identical. 2 Chart 1: College Enrollment Rates for Boston Public High School Graduates, Classes of 1985 to 1999 66.0% 65% 64.0% 65.8% 64.0'1, 83.0% 62.0'/, 60% j• 0 u c ~% ec w ~ 50% 50.0'/, 45'/i 40'/, 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 How have male and female high school graduates fared in transitioning from high school to college in the first year after graduation from high school? Findings of the Winter 2000 follow-up survey revealed that nearly 72% of female graduates from the Class of 1999 were attending a college or post-secondary training institution versus only 62% of the men, a l O percentage point gap in favor of women. Large gender gaps in college enrollment rates have existed since the mid-1990s. (See Chart 3). Chart 2 depicts college enrollment rates of male and female graduates of Boston public high school for selected years over the 1987-99 period. Throughout the 1990s, female graduates' college enrollment rates have outpaced those of men's. In 1987, there was a modest one percentage point difference between the college enrollment rates of men and women in favor of men, but the enrollment gap has reversed direction and widened considerably in the 1990s, reaching an all time high of 12 percentage points in 1998 before narrowing slightly in 1999 to 9.3 percentage points. 3 .... _ Chart 2: Trends in College Enrollment Rates of Boston Public High School Graduates, by Gender, Selected Time Periods, 1987-1999 r- 80% --Men I • Women 1 70% 71 .5% "C ..! 62.2% 60.8% ec 60% w 0~ 55.2% 50% 1987 1991 1996 1997 1998 1999 Chart 3: Percentage Points Gap Between the College Enrollment Rates of female and Male Graduates, Selected Years: 198 7-1999 14% 12.5% 12% g. 10% C> !? c: ·5 8% 0.. Cl C) !! c: Cl ~ l 4% 2% 0% 1987 1991 1996 1998 1999 4 Chart 4 displays trends in the college enrollment rates of Boston public high school graduates across four race-ethnic groups for selected years over the I 987-99 time period. In each time period, Asian graduates from Bosto.n public high schools had the highest college enrollment rates, and their college enrollment rate was 82 percent or higher in each year. Following Asian youth were White non-Hispanic youth, whose college enrollment rate varied over a range of 58% to 71% over the past decade. The enrollment rate of Black graduates has increased substantially since the late 1980s rising from 49.0 percent in 1987 to 64.4 percent in 1999, a gain of 15 percentage points. representing a relative increase of 31 percent over this time period. fn 1999, the Black college enrollment rate was just under 65%, or 6 percentage points below that of Whites. Another positive trend in college enrollment rates among Boston public high school graduates is that of Hispanic graduates whose college enrollment rate increased from 53 percent in 1987 to 60.5 percent in 1999, a relative increase of 13 percent over this 12 year period. Their college enrollment rate in 1999 was well above that of their Hispanic counterparts across the country. Despite these impressive gains, their college enrollment rate has remained the lowest among the four race-ethnic groups in the city of Boston. Chart 4: Trends in College Enrollment Rates of Boston Public High School Graduates, Selected Time Periods, by Race-Ethnic Groups 1987-1999 100% 92.0% 90% 88.3% 88.1% 82.6% 82.9% 84.1% 80% "O ~ 70% ec: w 60% 0~ 50% ~ Black ---White 40% Asian --- Hispanic 30% 1987 1991 1996 1997 1998 1999 5 Do the female-male differences in college enrollment rates prevail in each race- ethnic group and type of high school (exam or non-exam) or are they confined to only a few groups? To answer this question, we analyzed the PIC follow-up survey data on the college attendance behavior of male and female graduates from the Classes of 1998 and 1999 in each race-ethnic group and among both exam and non-exam school graduates. Findings in Table 1 display the differences in college enrollment rates of Class of 1998 and 1999 Boston public high school graduates by gender in each of four race-ethnic groups. In both years, the college enrollment rates of female graduates in each of the race/ethnic groups were greater than those of male graduates.
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