Figuring it Out: ACCESS RESEARCH KNOWLEDGE Looking Behind the Social Statistics in Nothern Ireland Horgan Ann Marie Gray & Goretti ARK ARK ACCESS RESEARCH KNOWLEDGE Magee campus School of Sociology, University of Ulster Social Policy and Social Work Northland Road Queen’s University Belfast Derry/Londonderry Belfast BT48 7JL BT7 1NN Tel: 028 7137 5513 Tel: 028 9097 3034 Figuring it Out: Fax: 028 7137 5510 Fax: 028 9097 3943 E-mail: [email protected] E-mail: [email protected] Looking Behind the Social Statistics in Northern Ireland Ann Marie Gray Goretti Horgan November 2009 www.ark.ac.uk ARK ARK ARK is a joint resource between the University of Ulster and Queen’s University, Belfast. Its goal is to carry out high quality research and to make information on social issues available to the widest possible audience. Through this ARK seeks to inform and stimulate policy debate and increase capacity for knowledge based decision making in Northern Ireland. This publication, which brings together and discusses statistical information on a range of important social policy issues, is very much in keeping with these objectives and with the need to ensure that academic research has maximum impact. About the authors: Ann Marie Gray is Policy Director of ARK and is a Senior Lecturer in Social Policy at the University of Ulster. Goretti Horgan is in the ARK Policy Unit and is a lecturer in Social Policy at the University of Ulster. She currently holds a Leverhulme Fellowship. Acknowledgements This book was produced with the assistance of the Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency whose staff provided data and background information at each stage in the process. Their contribution has been invaluable. The final version represents the views of the authors and is not necessarily those of NISRA or any other government department. ARK is currently core funded by the Economic and Social Research Institute (award number RES-060-23-0015). We are most grateful for this support that has enabled us to initiate this project. We are very grateful to academic colleagues and those in voluntary sector organisations who reviewed the chapters. Thanks are also due to David Barr and Phillip Burch in the Faculty of Social Sciences who assisted with the production of the book. INCORE Report 2009.indd 1 22/10/2009 13:59 Foreword Foreword I welcome this publication bringing together social statistics relating to a range of social policy issues in Northern Ireland and contextualising them within a lay friendly commentary. It shows that it is possible for this kind of work to be accessible without jeopardising academic quality. The presentation and dissemination of research knowledge in a way that engages a wide audience is an important part of the ESRC’s mission across the UK. But it is even more crucial to encourage social policy debate in a region where devolution is still embedding. This book with its relevance for researchers, policy makers, users and providers of services and the public makes an important contribution to informing the future development of Social Policy in Northern Ireland and is very much in keeping with the current focus on maximising the impact of academic research in the wider world. This project is the outcome of an effective working relationship between ARK and the Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency. It shows the benefit to be gained from this kind of co-operation which is an important mechanism for the exchange of knowledge and effective collaboration necessary as we move towards more evidence based policy. Professor Ian Diamond, Chief Executive Economic and Social Research Council. INCORE Report 2009.indd 2 21/10/2009 12:26 Contents Contents 2 DEMOGRAPHY AND DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS IN NORTHERN IRELAND Northern Ireland population 1 ARE WE THERE YET? TRANSPORT AND TRAVEL Introduction 5 Policy and Investment 7 Trends in Transport Use 10 Rail Travel 12 Bus Travel 12 Access to Public Transport 12 Public Attitudes 13 Key Policy Challenges 13 References 14 FORTY SHADES OF GREEN? THE ENVIRONMENT Introduction 15 Planning 15 Preservation and Architectural Heritage in Northern Ireland 17 Northern Ireland and Climate Change 18 Waste Management in Northern Ireland 20 Key Policy Challenges 25 References 25 FIT AND WELL? HEALTH AND HEALTH CARE Introduction 26 Mental Health Issues 27 Structure of Health Care Services in Northern Ireland 28 Expenditure on Health and Social Care in Northern Ireland 30 Hospital Care 31 Access To and Use of Health Care Services 33 Key Policy Challenges 35 References 36 WHO CARES? SOCIAL CARE PROVISION Introduction 37 Children’s Services in Northern Ireland 37 Day Care Provision for Children in Northern Ireland 40 Care Packages 41 Older People 42 Mental Health 43 Learning Disability 44 Informal Care 46 INCORE Report 2009.indd 3 21/10/2009 12:43 Contents Physical and Sensory Disability 47 Key Policy Challenges 48 References 49 ARE WE WORKING? SHIFTING PATTERNS OF EMPLOYMENT Introduction 50 Where are the jobs? 50 Job-rich, job-poor households 53 Gender and Employment 53 Self Employment in Northern Ireland 56 Employment and Section 75 Groups 58 Skills and Qualification 59 Pay in Northern Ireland 60 Key Policy Challenges 61 References 62 WHAT DO WE KNOW? EDUCATIONAL OPPORTUNITIES AND OUTCOMES Introduction 63 Types of School 63 Expenditure on Education and School Numbers 65 The Integrated Sector 66 Academic Selection 67 Educational Outcomes 72 Children In/Leaving Care and Educational Outcomes 75 Educational Outcomes for Children from Irish Traveller and other Minority Ethnic Backgrounds 76 Children with Special Educational Needs 76 Views of Children and Young People 77 Key Policy Challenges 79 References 80 WAY OF LIFE: ARTS AND SPORT Introduction 81 Sport and Physical Activity 81 Funding for Sport and Physical Activity 82 Participation in sport and Physical Activity in Northern Ireland 83 Arts and Culture 86 Participation at Arts and Cultural events 88 Libraries 88 Key Policy Challenges 89 References 90 INCORE Report 2009.indd 4 21/10/2009 12:32 Demography DEMOGRAPHY AND DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS IN NORTHERN IRELAND In recent years Northern Ireland has had the fastest growing and youngest population of all UK countries. Population increase has been a general trend since the inception of the state, due primarily to natural change with births exceeding deaths. Historically, this increase has been tempered by significant population loss due to out-migration but more recently a different pattern has emerged with Northern Ireland experiencing significant in-migration which has resulted in a larger increase in population. Northern Ireland’s population growth in recent decades has continued despite a fall in both the number of births and the birth rate. This fall in birth rate is tempered with a recent recovery in the number of births recorded. In 2008 the fertility rate in Northern Ireland rose above the replacement level of 2.1 births per woman. This recent fertility increase has in part been driven by in-migration. Northern Ireland has the lowest crude death rate of all UK countries - related to having the youngest age structure. Since the mid-1970s, Northern Ireland has experienced a general decrease in the annual number of deaths recorded. This decrease has occurred despite the population increasing in size and the increasing proportion of the population who are elderly. As in other European countries, there has been a significant change in the age-structure of the population. This chapter summarises the trends in population, births and deaths from 1922 and offers some comparisons with the rest of the UK. Northern Ireland Population The population has risen from around 1.28 million in 1922 to 1.75 million in 2007. There was an initial period of population loss from 1922 to the early 1930s due to significant out- migration from Northern Ireland. Following this, a rise occurred throughout the twentieth century, with the main exception to this period of growth being in the early 1970s when the size of the population again decreased. This decrease was at the start of the period of civil unrest in Northern Ireland known as ‘the Troubles’ and was due to particularly high levels of net out-migration. The 2006-based population projections indicate that the population in Northern Ireland is projected to continue to increase beyond 2030. Over the last five years population growth has been driven by both natural change and net migration. Net in- migration has been significant in Northern Ireland since the accession of the eight Central and Eastern European, or A8, countries to the European Union in May 2004. In 2007 population gain in Northern Ireland due to migration was half a per cent of the population or 10,000 people. The Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency (NISRA) carried out research based on administrative data sources to estimate the stock of people of A8 origin living in Northern Ireland. In 2007 it estimated the size of this population at 30,000 people. This represents almost 2% of the Northern Ireland population of just over 1.75 million. While all parts of the UK have experienced recent increases in population, in 2007 Northern Ireland had the fastest growing population of all UK countries with a 2006/07 increase of 1 INCORE Report 2009.indd 1 21/10/2009 12:34 Demography 1.0% (17,500 people), compared to 0.6% in England, 0.5% in Scotland and 0.5% in Wales. In addition to having the fastest growing population, Northern Ireland also has the youngest population in the UK. In 2007, 22% of the Northern Ireland population were children and 16% were of pensionable age, while for England it was 19% and 19% respectively. In Scotland 18% were children and 19% were of pensionable age, and in Wales 19% and 21% respectively.