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Chemical, Biological, Radiological, and Nuclear Threats FINAL REPORT © Pixabay 2017 Final Report Chemical, Biological, Radiological, and Nuclear Threats September 2017 ATA Headquarters 20 Rue des Petits Carmes Club Prince Albert 1000 Brussels www.atahq.org ______________________________________________________________________________________________ Final Report 2017 Atlantic Treaty Association ATA Council Meeting 2015 Who We Are Founded in 1954, the Atlantic Treaty Association (ATA) is an organization of policy-makers designed to produce top-notch knowledge on strategic themes while conducting research, analyses, training, education, and information activities tailored to the promotion of transatlantic values and enhanced non-military cooperation between civil society and institutions. For over 60 years ATA has fostered the development of transatlantic security policy alongside diplomats, military, industry, academia and journalists in order to strengthen the bond between influential stakeholders within the Alliance. National Associations ATA Headquarters is based in Brussels and coordinates an extended and highly qualified network of 37 national Atlantic Councils and their respective youth divisions to facilitate policy development in key areas of security and defense. Youth Atlantic Treaty Association (YATA) Special relevance is attributed to the Youth Atlantic Treaty Association (YATA), our young professional contingent, designed to prepare the next generation of Atlanticist leaders to face the challenges and threats of the present and future security scenarios. 1 _________________________________________________________________________________ Atlantic Treaty Association ______________________________________________________________________________________________ Final Report 2017 Concept Note Objective In recent years, the threat of chemical, biological, radiological, and nuclear (CBRN) attacks have increased. In particular, the danger of CBRN warfare waged by organised crime or terrorist cells presents itself as a possibility. The European response remains slow, especially in connection to medical capacity should an attack take place. It is essential to analyze these shortcomings and make way for new policies and approaches in the event the CBRN risk becomes a reality. The purpose of this Report is to provide a viable assessment of the CBRN threat and operational capability within Europe to address it. Goals a) To bring together experts and policy makers to analyze how to better prepare for the CBRN risk with a focus on prevention and medical capacity; b) To examine the current CBRN threat as well as future threats; c) Provide policy recommendations to NATO and the EU Authors - Col. Vratislav Osvald-Director of the Joint CBRN Defence Centre of Excellence (JCBRN Def COE) - Malcolm Sperrin-Lt Col RAMC and Professor of Radiology at Reading University. IAEA Inspector and a Specialist Advisor on behalf on Interpol - Alessandro Boncio-European Expert Network on Terrorism Issues (EENeT) of the Advanced Institute of Technique Studies from the Arma dei Carabinieri Language English Documents ATA Webpage - Final Report 2 _________________________________________________________________________________ Atlantic Treaty Association ______________________________________________________________________________________________ Final Report 2017 Report Executive Summary This report analyzes the current vulnerabilities in Europe related to the risk of an accident or an attack involving CBRN materials, pointing out EU current capacities and provides policy recommendations to heighten capabilities, knowledge and preparedness. A special emphasis will be dedicated to the radiological and nuclear (RN) threats due to radioelements depletion resulting in lasting effects of contaminated areas as this is an area currently lacking specific policies or capability requirements for mitigating life-threatening injuries. Background As of today, we are facing evolving threats from both, state and non-state actors, causing complex challenges, including hybrid warfare, terrorism, organised crime, cyber-attacks and a wide range of events involving weapons of mass destruction (WMD) and chemical, biological, radiological, and nuclear (CBRN) threats. The full extent of the potential CBRN threats cannot be predicted because they can evolve in non-linear ways and can be affected by a number of outside factors, including economy, flow of goods and people, meteorological conditions, etc. Such uncertainty can make it difficult to determine the nature or origin of such a threat, and complicate response efforts when detailed information is not yet available. However, there are indications that terrorists intend to acquire CBRN substances for malicious purposes. In addition, there are evidences that even some sovereign states attempt to acquire nuclear weapons and the means of delivery, which could pose a significant threat to the international community in the near future. Airmen inspect simulated Effective responses to CBRN events often require their initiation before the origin or full M-9 paper during their extent of the event is understood. This requires familiarity with various aspects of diverse chemical, biological, scenarios that can only be achieved through advanced consideration. Advanced radiological and nuclear planning together with the access to timely, accurate and relevant information is a training (U.S. Air Force photo by Airman 1st critical component of any CBRN response, heavily supported by the diverse, Class Kelsey Waters, multipurpose capabilities necessary to provide the operational flexibility for a wide range 2013). of future CBRN response efforts. Status in the European Union The European Union and the Euro-Atlantic community in general are currently facing two main security threats related to terrorism, represented by foreign terrorist fighters trained in Syria and able to execute complex attacks (so called “returnees issue”), and the risk represented by the influence and jihadization capability of ISIS and other salafi- jihadist groups which can result in a potential escalation of attacks all over Europe. Despite recent and continuous loss of territories and assets by ISIS and the current “underground” rebranding and adaptation of likeminded terrorist organizations such as al-Qa’ida or al-Nusra, there is a coherent jihadist strategy aiming at shifting the West’s focus from the Middle East to Western countries; contemporary jihadist propaganda asks sympathizers not to travel to jihadi battlefields, but to carry out attacks in their own countries. 3 _________________________________________________________________________________ Atlantic Treaty Association ______________________________________________________________________________________________ Final Report 2017 In this context, the possibility that a jihadist group might launch a terrorist attack using CBRN (chemical, biological, radiological or nuclear) agents remains one of the gravest threats to homeland security in the world; it is definitely not a new phenomenon, as terrorist organizations in the past have tried to purchase CBRN materials to exploit the mass casualties and the psychological and sociological effects linked to such a tragic hypothesis. Interpol takes note of the risk of groups like ISIS accessing CBRN weapons in their latest European Union Terrorism Situation and Trend Report. The phenomenon of individuals travelling for terrorist purposes to conflict zones increases the risk that expertise in the use of chemical weapons can be transferred to the European Union by returning foreign terrorist fighters. Both Syria and Iraq have had chemical weapon programmes in the past, as well as production facilities and stockpiles which may not have been completely destroyed, French Police responding to despite international community and OPCW efforts.”1 attack on AirProducts, which According to this report, CBRN materials remain highly attractive to terrorists and intended to blow up gas tanks several incidents in 2015 involved actual or attempted malevolent use of CBRN (The Washington Post, 2015). materials with criminal or unknown intentions. Incidents involving attempted sale of radioactive materials by organized crime groups occurred in Moldova, Ukraine, Turkey, and Poland.2 Interpol also highlights that Jihadist terrorists and their sympathizers regularly express threats involving CBRN materials in their propaganda. Mr. Wolfgang Rudischhauser, Director of the WMD Non-proliferation Section at NATO, expresses similar concerns in an article from late last year. We might thus soon enter a stage of CBRN terrorism, never before imaginable. Worrying reports confirm that ISIL has gained (at least temporarily) access to former chemical weapons storage sites in Iraq. They might soon do so in Libya. They allegedly used toxic chemicals in the fighting around Kobane. Even more worrying, there are press reports about nuclear material from Iraqi scientific institutes having been seized by ISIL. This demonstrates that while no full-scale plots have been unveiled so far, our governments need to be on alert. Generating improved military and civil prevention and response capabilities should be a high priority and should not fall victim to limited budgets in times of economic crisis.3 He also warns about the damage that could have been caused if for example the recent Charlie Hebdo’ attacks had been targeted against a metro station using explosive devices containing radioactive sources or chemical material instead of using Kalashnikovs.
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