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Security Industry Monitor (Dec 2018)

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Security Industry Monitor (Dec 2018) Security Industry Monitor Executive Summary Security Industry Monitor December 2018 For additional information on our Security Team, please contact: John E. Mack III Co-head, Investment Banking Group Head of Mergers and Acquisitions (310) 246-3705 [email protected] Bill Lynch Managing Director, Investment Banking Group (310) 246-3789 [email protected] Rick Juarez Managing Director, Investment Banking Group (415) 615-4002 [email protected] Koby L. Tanzer, CFA Head of Israel Office Imperial Capital Israel, Ltd. +972 (54) 720 0999 [email protected] PLEASE SEE IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES ON LAST PAGE September 2009 1 Security Industry Monitor Table of Contents About Imperial Capital, LLC Imperial Capital is a full-service investment bank offering a uniquely integrated platform of comprehensive services to institutional investors and middle market companies. We offer sophisticated sales and trading services to institutional investors and a wide range of investment banking advisory, capital markets and restructuring services to middle market corporate clients. We also provide proprietary research across an issuer’s capital structure, including bank debt, debt securities, hybrid securities, preferred and common equity and special situations claims. Our comprehensive and integrated service platform, expertise across the full capital structure, and deep industry sector knowledge enable us to provide clients with superior advisory services, capital markets insight, investment ideas and trade execution. We are quick to identify opportunities under any market conditions and we have a proven track record of offering creative, proprietary solutions to our clients. Imperial Capital’s expertise includes the following sectors: Aerospace, Defense & Government Services, Airlines & Transportation, Business Services, Consumer, Energy (Clean Energy and Traditional Energy), Financial Services, Gaming & Leisure, General Industrials, Healthcare, Homebuilding & Real Estate, Media & Entertainment, Security & Homeland Security and Technology. Imperial Capital has three principal businesses: Investment Banking, Institutional Sales & Trading and Institutional Research. For additional information, please visit our Web site at www.imperialcapital.com. 2 December 2018 Security Industry Monitor Table of Contents Table of Contents Section I Executive Summary ...................................................................................... 5 Defining the Security Industry 7 Macroeconomic Overview 9 Equity Performance and Valuation 11 M&A Snapshot 15 Public Debt and Equity Offerings Snapshot 16 Registered Direct and Private Placement Snapshot 16 Bankruptcies Snapshot 17 Security Industry Transactions Outlook 17 Physical Solutions Overview 18 Identity Solutions Overview 18 Information Security Overview 19 Section II Physical Security Sector ............................................................................ 21 Sector Outlook and Commentary 23 M&A Review and Outlook 40 Notable Middle Market Transactions 40 Registered Direct and Private Placement Snapshot 42 Public and Rule 144A Debt and Equity Offering Snapshot 43 Bankruptcies 43 Section III Identity Solutions Sector .......................................................................... 47 Sector Outlook and Commentary 49 M&A Review and Outlook 53 Notable Middle Market Transactions 53 Registered Direct and Private Placement Snapshot 54 Public and Rule 144A Debt and Equity Offering Snapshot 54 Bankruptcies 54 Section IV Information Security Sector ..................................................................... 57 Sector Outlook and Commentary 59 M&A Review and Outlook 66 Notable Middle Market Transactions 66 Registered Direct and Private Placement Snapshot 67 Public and Rule 144A Debt and Equity Offering Snapshot 67 Bankruptcies 67 Section V Unmanned Aerial Systems Sector ............................................................ 71 Sector Outlook and Commentary 73 Notable M&A Transactions 85 Registered Direct and Private Placement Snapshot 85 Bankruptcies 85 Section VI Appendix ................................................................................................... 89 Comparable Companies 91 Valuations—Security Industry Companies 95 Disclosures ..........................................................................................................Last Page December 2018 3 Executive Summary Security Industry Monitor [This page intentionally left blank.] 4 December 2018 Security Industry Monitor Table of Contents Section I Executive Summary December 2018 5 Executive Summary Security Industry Monitor [This page intentionally left blank.] 6 December 2018 Security Industry Monitor ExecutiveTable of Summary Contents Executive Summary Defining the Security Industry The December 2018 edition of the Imperial Capital Security Industry Monitor focuses on two major trends: 1) the rise of leading independent monitoring companies, and 2) improving communication and verification for emergency centers and first responders. The first trend we identify is the rise of leading independent monitoring companies benefiting from the growth of do-it-yourself (DIY), large technology, and cable/telco as home automation companies become aware of the need to offer a monitoring and response option for interested clients. Ten years ago, the independent, or wholesale, monitoring business was a somewhat sleepy segment of the security industry. They provided monitoring services to those security dealers who did not have the size, capital, or simply did not like the task of monitoring and servicing clients. Today, the independent monitoring companies appear to be growing in the mid-teens, twice the rate of the overall electronic security industry. A disproportionate part of that fast growth is centered on a few companies that have invested heavily in technology and infrastructure in order to market to and take on the volume demands of recent entrants into the industry. In our December 2017 Premises Control and Automation: Outlook for 2017-2024 white paper we estimated that for nearly a decade the alarm industry’s fee-based security penetration of total U.S. homes has been stagnant at roughly 20%. However, we estimate that the penetration rate will accelerate to 42% of U.S. homes by 2024. Improving communication and verification for emergency centers and first responders is another important focus. The very growth in new systems that feeds the growth of the independent monitoring companies is also exacerbating a serious issue for the industry, which we discuss in more detail in the second part of our Physical Security section of this Monitor. The problem is the sheer increase in volume of alarms, 90-95% of which are false. Historically, the communication capabilities between the industry’s monitoring centers and emergency centers 911 dispatchers have neither been accurate enough nor quick enough to encourage first responders to act more quickly on alarms. The false alarm problem has slowed police response, except in cases where an event is clearly verified, and has led to ever more onerous fines for end users, and some alarm companies, for false alarms, unless there was some human or device-driven proof that the event was happening. This trend has led to longer response times, increased fines, and even discontinuance of any response in some situations, where unverified alarms proved false. These lengthening response times and the increase in fines already presented a challenge to the value proposition (i.e., RMR being one representation of this), even before this new acceleration of growth in the number of professionally monitored – and now increasing self-monitored – security systems. Over the last 15 years, the alarm industry, in conjunction with the leading responder organizations has developed an Automated Secure Alarm Protocol (ASAP). Over the last seven years, some 35 companies and nearly 40 Public Safety Answering Point (PSAP) jurisdictions (with double the amount in process) have developed the ASAP-to-PSAP process. According to numerous case studies this process has successfully automated communications between monitoring companies and PSAP operators, cutting down the time to communicate by about 80-90% and greatly reducing errors. While ASAP-to-PSAP is a definite improvement over prior ad hoc solutions by individual companies, it is not a panacea. ASAP-to-PSAP does not deal with the initial verification of an event, and many companies cannot afford the costs of upgrading software and 4G communications capabilities, leaving the very largest companies to disproportionality fund these improvements for their competitors. December 2018 7 Executive Summary Security Industry Monitor Nonetheless, there are many technology and product choices that complement or add independent verification capabilities that we believe bring us closer to an acceptable combination of verification and improved communication between monitoring centers and ultimately the first responders that protect our health and safety. We are not at that point, but the industry is no longer making light of this critical issue as some critics contend. We visited several of these high-growth monitoring companies and conducted operational due diligence, including their human resources strategy, infrastructure and redundant capabilities, technology stack, as well as companies they are working with to help identify and verify events. In the Physical Security section, we provide details on some of our general findings.
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