ESSAY BETWEEN TWO CAESARS: THE CHRISTIANS

OF NORTHERN Roger Petersen & Matthew Cancian

eligious and ethnic minorities live a precarious existence during Rcivil wars. In a war between the incumbent state and an insurgent challenger, minority group leaders may pick one side over the other. However, if they choose the loser they will be open to charges of collaboration and become vulnerable targets of vengeance. On the other hand, if the minority chooses to stay out of the fight altogether, the failure to mobilize may itself leave them defenseless. Moreover, some civil wars and insurgencies are more complicated than others. Multiple actors fighting or competing for control of the state make things even more complicated, especially if minority groups themselves fragment into multiple factions.

In our brief account here, we 1.5 million Christians lived century, their numbers be- will describe the formation in Iraq, including many came miniscule. and fragmentation of self-de- Assyrians in northern Iraq fense forces (militias) within around . By the time During several visits to the the Christian population of ISIS swept through north- region, we’ve tried to learn the . We will ern Iraq in 2014, that figure more about the Christians trace the development of their may have fallen to roughly of Iraq, particularly in the post-2003 self-defense force, 400,000. If significant num- area of the Nineveh Plains. the crisis of the Islamic State bers do not return, the Iraq In the fall of 2014, the senior of Iraq and ’s (ISIS) at- War and its aftermath could author—Petersen—conducted tack, and the current frac- lead to a near elimination a focus group session with 15- tured state of Christian forces of a religious minority with 20 Christian refugees from in the area. The situation of roots going back nearly 2,000 who found safety the Nineveh Plains militias years; some Christian groups in Jordan after fleeing ISIS. illustrates how evolving po- carry deeper ethnic identities In the summer of 2017 in litical relations can open a that are even older. It would , capital of the Kurdistan broad set of strategic choices. not be the first time a sizable Regional Government (KRG), In turn, we will show how ethno-religious minority Cancian interviewed several different actors will have in- has disappeared from Iraq’s officers in the Nineveh Plains centives to choose differently mosaic of peoples. In 1900, Guards (NPG), the largest across this set of options. Jews comprised one-fourth of Christian self-defense force. ’s population, total- At the time of the American in- ing about 50,000 residents. Generally speaking, minority vasion in 2003, an estimated Over the course of the next group political leaders have a

38 A soldier from the Nineveh Plains Protection Unit takes cover and returns simulated fire during react to contact training on May 18, 2016. Staff Sgt. Sergio Rangel. Source: US Army. range of choices in deciding the adjacent Nineveh Plains members of the whether and how to mobilize chose differently. In the and Intelligence Services to their populations in armed summer of 2004, a Christian be the backbone of the group, groups. First, they can simply self-defense force was orga- and they in turn recruited try to stay neutral and not nized in Qaraqosh (also called younger Christians to be ju- mobilize at all. Second, they al-Hamdaniya, Bakhdida, or nior soldiers. can encourage their mem- Baghdeda), a Christian city bers to join one side’s armed that is the largest city in the From an initial force of just forces as individuals in hopes Nineveh Plains. It lies 20 245, the group expanded to of winning favor with that miles from Mosul, and crit- over 1,000 members who pa- group. Third, they can mobi- ically in the “disputed terri- trolled and manned check- lize militias and associate that tories” between Kurdish and points inside the city. While force with one of the combat- Iraqi Government control. at first they were unarmed, ants. On top of these choices, the KRG eventually provid- minority leaders must also According to officers in the ed them Kalashnikov rifles. consider whether to mobilize self-defense force, the prime The decision to align with as a unified entity or as a sub- mover was a Catholic priest the , rather than the group. Mobilizing as a sub- from the town, Father Louis Government of Iraq (GOI), group may allow the group Qassab. In response to ISIS was likely influenced by to pursue political goals or violence in Mosul, he con- the strong ties that Sarkis spoils, but it will also reduce tacted Sarkis Aghajan, an Aghajan has with the Barzani the group’s leverage while Assyrian politician who was family. There are reports increasing its vulnerability. the Minister of Finance and that he grew up in Iran with the Economy in the KRG from Nechirvan Barzani, the After 2003, the Christians in 1999-2006. Sarkis Aghajan Prime Minister and neph- Mosul proper basically chose contacted a trusted lieutenant ew of President Massoud neutrality. Nevertheless, tar- who had served in the Iraqi Barzani, and that Aghajan geted killings and kidnap- Army, Fuad Arab (a nom de was even in the Kurdish pesh- pings drove them out of the guerre), to organize a force of merga (military forces). On city. Reacting in part to the Christians in Qaraqosh. Fuad the other hand, American fate that befell their brethren Arab in turn enrolled a net- documents published in in Mosul, the Christians of work of Christians of former WikiLeaks indicate that in

39 private he complained about previous hegemony in the own groups but still main- Kurdish incursions on what area prevented splintering tained ties with the Kurds: he believed were historically because the in the these groups include Dwekh Christian lands. Still, from an area was the clear partner for Nawsha, the Nineveh Plains early stage the force, dubbed assistance. After 2014, the Protection Units (NPU), and the Nineveh Plains Guards, Kurds’ reliability was ques- the Nineveh Plains Forces received material aid from tioned when ISIS overran (NPF). As it became clear the KRG and kept the area every major Christian town that Baghdad would liberate safe from the bloodshed that except al-Qosh in the north. most of the Nineveh Plains, plagued Mosul until the inva- Additionally, it wasn’t clear the NPU and NDF strength- sion of ISIS in August 2014. whether Erbil or Baghdad ened their relationships with would eventually liberate the GOI, which is now their In sum, while violence raged the Nineveh Plains from ISIS main partner. Finally, one in nearby Mosul, Christian control (assuming ISIS would force, the Babylon Brigade, leaders in Qaraqosh made be defeated). completely broke with the a decision to organize their Kurds and threw themselves own militia, people it with In effect, two polities were in with central government Christian veterans of the Iraqi now competing to be the le- as members of the , and tie it to the most gitimate government in the Mobilization Units. powerful political actor in Nineveh Plains: the KRG and the region, the KRG and its the GOI. Neither was strong Remaining closest to the peshmerga. Other leaders enough nor had the will to KRG are members of the in smaller and less vulner- displace the other. Both could NPG, now officially mem- able localities chose not to produce mobile and local se- bers of the Zeravani forces mobilize an armed force; curity forces. For Christian under the KRG’s Ministry of this choice was safe given organizations, the choice set the Interior. As such, they re- the perceived power of the broadened to include the fol- ceived salaries and training peshmerga and the NPG. lowing realistic options: from the KRG. In the summer There was only one signif- of 2016, the junior author vis- icant Christian militia, so 1) Do not mobilize at all; ited them as they trained in there was no fragmentation. stay neutral Bnaslawa with members of 2) Mobilize and inte- the Western Coalition. Five After taking Mosul in June grate with the existing hundred of them were re- 2014, ISIS paused brief- Christian militia (NPG) ceiving a two-week refresher ly before turning its sights course, and morale seemed eastward in August. Losses 3) Mobilize an indepen- high. Abu Hakem (a nom de from ISIS’ advance did not dent group and ally close- guerre), their commander, include just Christian lives ly with the KRG claimed that they had 2,600 and property. First, Christian 4) Mobilize an indepen- members but planned to confidence in Kurdish protec- dent group and ally close- expand to 3,500. While tion declined when the pesh- ly with the GOI they had hoped to return merga was unable to defend to and Qaraqosh the Nineveh Plains. Second, 5) Mobilize an indepen- during the upcoming Mosul dent group and occupy and perhaps as a result of operation, these areas wound a position between the the first, Christians in the KRG and GOI up being liberated from ISIS region fractured into sever- by the central government. In al militias. While there had As it happened, organizations the summer of 2017 during always been different politi- covered the range of options. a return visit, the junior au- cal parties, before 2014 these Some Christians stayed in the thor witnessed that the NPG differences did not result in NPG, which was closest to continued to guard refugee the creation of competing the Kurds. Some split from camps for Christians in the armed groups. The Kurds’ the NPG and formed their KRG and hoped that a change

40 Soldiers from the Nineveh Plains Protection Unit patrol a mountainside during a react to contact training exercise at their training facility in the Nineveh Province on May 18, 2016. Training focused on the Combined Joint Task Force – Operation Inherent Resolve overall mission to build partner capacity and increase the military capacity of local forces fighting Islamic State. Staff Sgt. Sergio Rangel. Source: US Army. in political fortunes would Initially founded in Baghdad and provide rear area secu- allow them to return to their during the 1970s, it had to rity. After the Tel Skuf op- homes. While they were once move its operations to the eration, the Assyrians were the only Christian militia, KRG for security reasons put in charge of security in others have arisen. during Saddam Hussein’s the town of Baqofa. It wasn’t rule. Despite periodic dis- without risk: in March 2016, (meaning putes with the KRG, it has a US Navy SEAL was killed “self-sacrifice” in Syriac, a mostly been safe and wel- while helping peshmerga and derivative of Old , the comed. Its base of support’s Dwekh Nawsha forces defend language of the Assyrians) location in Tel Skuf, which themselves from an ISIS formed in the Tel Skuf area is close to Kurdish strong- attack. When was as the armed force of the holds, also helps to explain liberated during the Mosul Dwekh Nawsha’s allegiance. Operation, Dwekh Nawsha (APP). While separate from The Kurds were more likely to was able to move there and the NPG, it still coordinates eventually liberate the area, provide security, although its operations with the Kurds, which happened. fighting had mostly destroyed who supply the group with the town. On a visit to the arms and equipment. The As the peshmerga rolled back border between Iraq and APP has had a tumultuous ISIS, Dwekh Nawsha has the KRG at Batnaya, the ju- relationship with the KRG. been able to move southward nior author noted no Dwekh

41 and Qaraqosh in the Mosul Operation, despite initial at- tempts by the KRG to block its movement, the NPU was able to move down and become the official security force for those areas along with anoth- er force, the Nineveh Plains Forces.

The NPF has a similar story to the NPU. It is affiliated with the Bet-Nahrain Democratic Party, which held a seat in the KRG’s parliament before the 2013 election, and now holds seats in Iraq’s regional gov- Figure 2: Map of Nineveh Plains in September 2017. Areas of Kurdish Control in Yellow; Government of Iraq Control in Red. Source: Wikimedia Commons ernments for Baghdad and with Author Edits. Nineveh. Similar to the NPU, it was based in the KRG’s Nawsha soldiers present. The to create a separate Assyrian area of control and initially town was still largely in ruins region as some members of supported by the peshmerga. with very few residents. The the diaspora want, according During the Mosul Operation, it moved into Bartella, where Assyrians continue to occu- to its leader, Yonadam Kanna. it has coexisted with the NPU. py some rear areas of that sector but have no frontline After 2014, the ADM formed Finally, the greatest break responsibility. the NPU in al-Qosh, which with the KRG came from never fell to ISIS and was the Babylon Brigade, which Indicating greater disillu- instead under peshmerga joined the central govern- sionment with the Kurds control. A lack of faith in ment’s Popular Mobilization than in the case of Dwekh the Kurds’ ability to defend Units (PMU). Led by Rayan Nawsha, two other groups them was an explicit mo- al-Kildani, it is unclear what not only split with the KRG- tivating factor. “If some- political party, if any, it is sanctioned NPG but aligned one from [a town in affiliated with. Even a BBC themselves increasingly with northwest Iraqi Kurdistan] correspondent who visited Baghdad as the campaign protects the Nineveh Plains, its Baghdad headquarters against ISIS progressed. The he doesn’t care, because his in 2016 was “not sure how Nineveh Plains Protection family is somewhere else. seriously to take Kildani,” Units (NPU) was formed Local people have family and implied it joined for the by the Assyrian Democratic here, and they will not run,” generous salaries. Movement (ADM). The ADM said Youra Moosa, an NPU has long balanced between political coordinator, in an This proliferation of armed Erbil and Baghdad, holding interview with Matt Cetti- forces has inevitably in- two seats in the Kurdistan Roberts. Initially, the NPU creased hitherto latent ri- Parliament and two seats in established itself in the KRG valries within the Christian the Council of Representatives but grew closer to Baghdad as community. Patriarch of Iraq. The ADM also main- it became clear that the GOI Louis Sako, the head of the tains a strong political move- would liberate the Nineveh ment in the United States, Plains and not the peshmer- in Baghdad, has spoken out particularly in Illinois. The ga. After the Iraqi Army lib- against the formation of any ADM, however, does not wish erated the towns of Bartella Christian militias. Despite

42 an accord in October 2016 of two competing potential of the Christian minority will to unify all Christian forces, hegemons, minority group lead to less overall leverage divisions have deepened. On leaders envisioned strate- and greater vulnerability in July 15, 2017, clashes broke gies that might provide both the medium and long-terms. out between the NPU and the resources and autonomy. Babylon Brigade in Qaraqosh. Political agendas that had The Iraqi Christians’ frac- After a brief skirmish, the lain dormant can now find tured state presents a dilem- Babylon Brigade members life. Much as states in the ma to United States policy- were expelled and, accord- Cold War period developed makers. The largest armed ing to a TV station associat- strategies of non-alignment group, the NPG, remains in ed with the NPU’s political between the two superpow- exile in the Kurdistan Region. party, the Babylon Brigade ers, minority group factions Christian opinion on the was forbidden from return- in the Nineveh Plains could Kurds, however, seems to be ing to the town. Each of the mobilize organizations and divided. Many members of Christian forces now occupies militias and position them be- the Iraqi Christian diaspora a separate area of the Nineveh tween the GOI and the KRG. despise the Kurds due to their Plains with no ability to move It remains to be seen whether complicity with massacres of between them. the resulting fragmentation Christians in the early half of

In summary, five signifi- cant local Christian militias emerged in the Nineveh Plains in the post-ISIS pe- riod. In their political align- ment, these groups covered the range of options with one continuing its close relation- ship with the KRG, one decid- ing to align with the GOI and Popular Mobilization Units, and three others positioning themselves between the KRG and GOI.

First, after becoming direct victims of violence in 2014, no significant Christian groups chose neutrality. Unsurprisingly, the actual experience of violence spurs mobilization, even if the ab- stract threat of violence may not. Second, most Christians fought in Christian militias rather than integrating into larger forces. Their militias were locally based and fo- cused on local defense. As in much of the rest of Iraq, mili- tia formation was mobilized A soldier from the Nineveh Plains Protection Unit runs for cover as he carries along group and territorial a fellow soldier acting as a combat casualty during a react to contact training lines. Third, in the presence exercise on May 18, 2016. Staff Sgt. Sergio Rangel. Source: US Army.

43 LOCATION OF POLITICAL PARTY MILITIA ALIGNMENT ORIGIN AFFILIATION

Kurdistan Regional Government Chaldean Syriac Nineveh Plains (KRG): now Assyrian Popular Qaraqosh Guards (NPG) officially members Council of the Zeravani forces

Assyrian Patriotic Dwekh Nawsha Tel Skuf KRG Party (APP)

Nineveh Plains Between KRG and Assyrian Protection Units l-Qosh Government of Iraq Democratic (NPU) (GOI), leaning GOI Movement (ADM)

Nineveh Plains Between KRG and Bet-Nahrain Forces (NPF) GOI, leaning GOI Democratic Party

Babylon Brigade GOI: integrated Unclear into Popular Mobilization Units (PMU) the twentieth century. This only complicated the situa- (2001), Understanding Ethnic historic animosity, however, tion. US policymakers who Violence: Fear, Hatred, Resent- contrasts with the fact that want to help the Christians ment in Twentieth Century since 2003 Christians have will have to untangle a knot Eastern Europe (2002), and been more secure in Kurdish of complicated relationships Western Intervention in the Balkans: The Strategic Use areas than in the south. The and dynamics to restore Christian security. Time is of Emotion in Conflict (2011), diaspora’s preferred solu- all with Cambridge University not on their side. There is a tion of founding a separate Press. He is currently working Nineveh Plains region, more- very real risk that, without a on a manuscript entitled “A over, does not seem to have satisfactory long-term solu- Social Science Guide to the Iraq the support of many Iraqi tion, the Christians of Iraq Conflict.” will go the way of the Jews of Christians who still live in Matthew Cancian is a PhD the country. Many Christians Iraq: a once vibrant commu- nity consigned to the pages of student at MIT in Security worry about encroachment by Studies and International history. the , a Shiite religious Relations with research inter- minority that has joined the ests in military effectiveness and Popular Mobilization Units. Roger Petersen holds BA, civil wars. After receiving a BA The fundamental problem of MA, and PhD degrees from the from UVA, Matthew served as geography, that the Nineveh University of Chicago. He has an artillery officer in the United taught at MITsince 2001 and States Marine Corps. After leav- Plains lie on the border be- is the Arthur and Ruth Sloan ing as a Captain, he received an tween Kurds and Arabs, will Professor of Political Science. MALD from the Fletcher School, be the primary obstacle to He has written three books: where he received the Edmund a solution. The Kurds’ inde- Resistance and Rebellion: A. Gullion award for academic pendence referendum has Lessons from Eastern Europe achievement.

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