NAND Flash and The Future of Enterprise Storage Enabling Products or Enabling Profits?
He who foretells the future lies, even if he tells the truth. John Monroe —Arab Proverb Research Vice President Infinitely self-similar, Gartner Storage Group never the same… Joseph Unsworth Mobile Research Director Desktop Gartner Semiconductor Group
IDEMA DISKCON Enterprise September 2008
Notes accompany this presentation. Please select Notes Page view. These materials can be reproduced only with written approval from Gartner. Such approvals must be requested via e-mail: [email protected]. WhereGart nerDo is aWe registered Come trademar From?k of Gartner What, Inc. or its are affiliates. We? Where Are We Going? Why SSDs in the Enterprise?
• HDDs have made enormous advances in capacity, cost per GB and reliability but much more limited advances in performance. • With HDDs, enterprise IOPS per GB have actually declined. • There will be a growing need for “storage network accelerators” (SNAs) in a variety of enterprise applications. Key Issues
1. What are the key market trends and applications fueling data growth?
This image can serve as a kind of metaphor for “seamless integration,” reflecting a coalescence of storage systems that can—with endless, scalable replication, simplicity and beauty—“solve” the problem of infinity at every edge.
2. What are the storage technologies and architectures that best address the complexity, cost and environmental challenges faced by IT professionals? 3. What are the current NAND flash industry dynamics? The Evolving Storage Landscape
• The Internet has one key purpose: The quick transport of digital data in multiple forms to multiple locations. All other uses have evolved from that initial aim. • Increased storage at any point in the World Wide Web increases the possibilities for storage in every part of the Web. We are only beginning to see the enormous implications of that simple sentence. Hype Cycle for Storage Hardware Technologies
Source: Gartner June 2008 “Hype Cycle for Storage Hardware Technologies, 2008” (G00158208) HDDs and SSDs in the Enterprise: A Spectrum of Opportunity
100 Total Multiuser Markets He who foretells the future lies, even if he tells the truth. 5.4K/7.2K-RPM HDDs —Arab Proverb 80 10K/15K-RPM HDDs Units (M) 60 Enterprise-Grade SSDs
SATA HDDs 40 FC/SAS HDDs 20 SSDs
0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
• High Capacity SATA HDDs: 2007 – 11.48M Units Æ 2012 -- 16.82M Units
• High-Performance FC/SAS HDDs: 2007 – 29.86M Units Æ 2012 – 37.16M Units
• Enterprise-Grade SSDs: 2007 -- 473K Units Æ 2012 – 7.2M Units From the Consumer to the Data Center: The Management of Complexity is Complex
• New dimensions in corporate and personal computing will demand (among other things)… - More storage capacity and quick, seamless access to enormous databases - More cost-effective and power-efficient storage infrastructures - More degrees of data security and more widespread uses of data encryption - Better archiving and disaster recovery systems - Better data management and enterprise content management - Better compliance strategies - Better IT operations to respond to enhanced SLAs
Both HDDs and SSDs will play key roles in the future management of storage complexity. Flash Landscape & Enterprise-Grade SSD Demands
• WHY SSD in ‘Tier 0’ Storage? - To Replace HDD For Performance, NOT Storage 100X+ Read Performance 10X+ Write Performance - Power Efficiency, Thermal Resistivity, Reliability
• Not All Flash is Created Equal: SLC vs. MLC - SLC Twice As Fast, 10X Endurance Cycles…BUT - SLC is $7/GB vs. $2.50/GB - 93% NAND Output Is MLC
• SLC NAND Flash Attributes: - Very Low Latency Reads: (~50us) - Relatively Slow Writes: (>200us) - Limited Endurance Cycles: Ranging from 100K-2M Sun Microsystems ZFS Hybrid Pool Example (From IDF Shanghai)
Same $ Budget Spent
RESULT Enterprise-Grade SSD: New Perspectives
Units (M)8 Enterprise-Grade SSD Segmentation 2012 3.5" SSD 256GB E-Grade SSD is 6 ~$500 OEM Price 2.5" SSD 1.8" SSD 256GB PC SSD is <$100 4 (Read Applications)
New Form Factors 2 - NAND DIMM - Sub-1.8” Disc 0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
• Enterprise-Grade SSD: 2007: 473K Units, $157.4M Æ 2012: 7.2M Units, $1.4B
- 2007 Enterprise-Grade SSD Breakdown: • Netcom: 36%, Enterprise Storage: 19%, Industrial/Military: 40%, Medical: 5% - 2012 Enterprise-Grade SSD Breakdown: • Netcom: 22%, Enterprise Storage: 60%, Industrial/Military: 17%, Medical: 1% Controller Enables Enhanced SSD Functionality
• Multiple Channel Support for Optimizing NAND Interleaving (8,16, and more Channels) • Advanced Wear-Leveling Algorithms • Bad Block Management: 8bit,12bit+ ECC/EDC • Native SATA, FC Support Controller Leaders Controller Challengers -STEC SSD Suppliers - Silicon Motion -SanDisk -STEC -Phison - Toshiba - Smart Modular -Marvell - Micron/Lexar -SanDisk - LSI Logic -Mtron - Toshiba -TDK - Samsung - Samsung - InComm -Intel -Intel -SkyMedi - HyperStone - Imation/Mtron - Many, Many -SST - Micron/Lexar Custom Solutions -BitMicro - Silicon Systems The NAND Flash Price Free Fall
ASP/GB $7,870
SLC NAND
$310
MLC NAND
$7.94
8/16LC NAND $0.25 8LC = 3bits per Cell 16LC = 4bits per Cell 1997 2012 Worldwide NAND Forecast, 3Q08: Summary of Adjustments Demand Slow Demand Across US and Europe due to Macroeconomic Factors Inventories Jammed in Q208 for both NAND Suppliers & Customers Flash Card & USB Drive Capacities Sluggish Migration to 4GB+ PMP & USB Drive shipments show slower growth
Supply Supply Production Revised Down only ~1% in 2008 and Similar Bit Growth in 2009 NAND Capacity spending cuts, More Needed (Excludes Recent SNDK Cuts)
2007 CapExÆ $11.5B, +30% 2008 CapEXÆ $9.46B, -17% 2009 CapExÆ $10.41B, +9.5%
Forecast Forecast outlook has worsened near-term with hopes to 2010 for recovery 2008: $13.9B, -10.1% growth 2009: Recovery in 2H09: $16B, 15.1% growth 2010: Recovery continues in 2010: $19.1B, 19.5% growth 2011–2012: Supply Induced downturn, Limited Profitability 3Q08 Update: What a Difference a Quarter Makes!
Supply/Demand Billions of Short-Term Supply/Demand Sufficiency Sufficiency Megabytes 2007: 101.5% = Oversupply 2008: 103.2% = Oversupply 4,000 2009: 100.2% = Balance 110% 3,500
3,000 105% 2,500 2,000 100% 1,500 1,000 95% 500
0 90% 1Q07 2Q07 3Q07 4Q07 1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09
NAND Flash Supply NAND Flash Demand Sufficiency 1Q&2Q Previous
Source: Gartner August, 2008 “NAND Flash Supply and Demand, Worldwide, 1Q07-4Q09: 3Q08” Capacity Increases Despite Losses
Wafers (Thousands 200mm Eq.) 300mm Capacity Is a Costly 7,000 300mm Necessity in Commodity NAND
6,000 200mm Limited Revenue Growth… 2006Æ +12.5% 2007Æ +14.8% 5,000 2008EÆ -10.1%
4,000 …Yet Spending Continues! 2007 CapExÆ $11.5B, +30% 3,000 2008 CapEXÆ $9.46B, -17% 2009 CapExÆ $10.41B, +9.5% 2,000 Further Declines Likely Given Losses
1,000 And More to Come, Despite recent Delays…
0 -300mm Capacity Grows from 40% in 1Q07 to 70% in Q408
Q107 Q207 Q307 Q407 Q108 Q208 Q308 Q408 - Every Major Vendor has a 300mm Source: Gartner August, 2008 Fab Ramp in 2009 NAND Multi-State & Controller Technology: A Glimpse into the Future
% of MB Shipments NAND Technologies Cost Reductions Must Not 100% NROM 4BC Compromise Quality
NROM 2BC - Every Shrink Pressures 80% MLC AND Performance and Endurance
MLC DOC - 3bits Technology Will Repeat 60% MLC Trend OneNAND - ECC/EDC, Wear-Leveling, Bad 40% 16LC NAND Block Management Essential
8LC NAND - Flash Management Software & 20% MLC NAND Advanced Controllers Can Be Differentiators in a Commodity SLC NAND Market 0%
2006 2007 2008Source: 2009 Gartner August, 2008 “NAND Flash Supply and Demand, Worldwide, 1Q07-4Q09: 3Q08 Update” NAND Flash Market Forecast: 2008 Collapse, Recovery 2H09/2010
CAGR 07-12 Gigabytes (M) 64.1 229.3 703.1 1,945 4,684 10,415 22,074 42,022 75,101 107.7% Bit Growth 222% 258% 207% 177% 141% 122% 112% 90% 79% 20
NAND Revenue 16 19.5% 4.4% -4.9% 15.1% 12 14.8% -10.1% 12.5% 70.6% 8 Revenue
4 69.6% (Billions of Dollars)
0 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 CAGR 07-12 ASP 1GB eqv. 109.4 52.1 19.1 7.94 2.97 1.54 0.87 0.43 0.25 -49.8% ASP Change -47.4% -52.3% -63.3% -58.5% -62.7% -48.2% -43.6% -50.0% -41.6%
Source: Gartner, August 2008 Semiconductor Forecast Worldwide--Forecast Database [SEQS-WW-DB-DATA] A Few Inconclusive Conclusions
• NAND flash will be the "tip of the iceberg" — HDDs will power the massive bulk of storage content hidden in the "ocean" of available data. • Technology providers and end users must realize that a spectrum of opportunity in emerging applications is far more compelling than any kind of disruptive battlefield. • Alliances between HDD and NAND flash technology providers should serve to enlarge the library of forms in which storage is a necessary element, thereby enhancing the variety and value of storage products and services. Thank You for Your Time And Attention
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