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Agriculture, Climate Change, and Adaptation in Morocco: a Computable General Equilibrium Analysis Ismail Ouraich Purdue University

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Agriculture, Climate Change, and Adaptation in Morocco: a Computable General Equilibrium Analysis Ismail Ouraich Purdue University Purdue University Purdue e-Pubs Open Access Dissertations Theses and Dissertations Spring 2014 Agriculture, climate change, and adaptation in Morocco: A computable general equilibrium analysis Ismail Ouraich Purdue University Follow this and additional works at: https://docs.lib.purdue.edu/open_access_dissertations Part of the Agricultural Economics Commons Recommended Citation Ouraich, Ismail, "Agriculture, climate change, and adaptation in Morocco: A computable general equilibrium analysis" (2014). Open Access Dissertations. 529. https://docs.lib.purdue.edu/open_access_dissertations/529 This document has been made available through Purdue e-Pubs, a service of the Purdue University Libraries. Please contact [email protected] for additional information. i AGRICULTURE, CLIMATE CHANGE, AND ADAPTATION IN MOROCCO: A COMPUTABLE GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM ANALYSIS A Dissertation Submitted to the Faculty of Purdue University by Ismail Ouraich In Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy i May 2015 Purdue University West Lafayette, Indiana ii "In the name of Allah, the Merciful, the Compassionate. Recite in the name of your Lord who created. Created man from a clinging substance. Recite, and your Lord is the most Generous -.Who taught by the pen - Taught man that which he knew not." Qur'an - Chapter 96, Verses 1-5 "The Prophet Muhammad (peace be upon him) said: "If anyone travels on a road in search of knowledge, God will cause him to travel on one of the roads of Paradise. The angels will lower their wings in their great pleasure with one who seeks knowledge. The inhabitants of the heavens and the Earth and (even) the fish in the deep waters will ask forgiveness for the learned man. The superiority of the learned over the devout is like that of the moon, on the night when it is full, over the rest of the stars. The learned are the heirs of the Prophets, and the Prophets leave (no monetary inheritance), they leave only knowledge, and he who takes it takes an abundant portion." Sunan of Abu-Dawood, Hadith 1631 ii iii ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS Many people come to mind and who deserve my utmost gratitude and acknowledgement on these pages. Throughout my journey toward earning my doctorate degree, I have benefited greatly from the support - whether spiritual or emotional or intellectual - of many different individuals. But first and foremost, all gratitude and praise to Allah (swt) without whom presence and guidance I would have never accomplished anything. Second, I extend my gratitude and acknowledgment to my committee members, Prof. Gerald E. Shively, Prof. Otto C. Doering and Prof. Keith A. Cherkauer for their support and insights, but also for their intellectual probity and challenge to always think critically. In this regard, I want especially to thank Prof. Wallace E. Tyner as the chair of my dissertation committee and who is a co-author on the two essays that make up this dissertation. I want to express my gratitude for his mentorship, for the freedom to pursue research topics and ideas, and the great scholarly discussions and otherwise. His supervision, advice and encouragement have had a positive impact on me and a source of iii motivation to always excel and do my best. These lessons I hope to carry with me for the remainder of my career. iv Third, I would love to acknowledge my colleagues and friends in the Department of Agricultural Economics at Purdue University. Throughout this journey, I have been touched by their kindness and support. I also have benefitted greatly from fruitful discussions regarding course work, research ideas and life in general. I hope to treasure these relationships and make them endure the vagaries of time and distance differences. Finally, I dedicate this dissertation to my dad, Muhammad Ouraich, and mom, Berrad Rkia, and my brothers Omar Ouraich and Zakaria Ouraich, whom unconditional love, faith, support, and encouragement to achieve this highest of degrees would not have been possible. iv v TABLE OF CONTENTS Page LIST OF TABLES ............................................................................................................. ix LIST OF FIGURES .......................................................................................................... xii ABSTRACT ..................................................................................................................... xvi CHAPTER 1. INTRODUCTION .................................................................................... 1 1.1 Overview and Research Questions ............................................................................ 1 1.2 Structure of the Thesis ............................................................................................... 7 CHAPTER 2. TAXONOMY OF THE MOROCCAN ECONOMY ............................... 9 2.1 Overview of Demographic and Socioeconomic Indicators ....................................... 9 2.2 The Moroccan Agricultural Sector: A Historical Perspective ................................ 18 2.2.1 Moroccan Agriculture in the Colonial Period ............................................... 18 2.2.2 Moroccan Agriculture in the Post-independence Era .................................... 21 2.3 Climate in Morocco ................................................................................................. 31 2.3.1 General Background ...................................................................................... 31 2.3.2 Recent Trends in Moroccan Climate ............................................................. 34 2.3.3 Projected Climate in Morocco ....................................................................... 37 2.4 Climate in Morocco ................................................................................................. 40 2.5 Summary ................................................................................................................. 41 v CHAPTER 3. CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ASSESSMENT AND ADAPTATION: A REVIEW OF METHODOLOGIES AND CONCEPTS ............................................... 43 3.1 Introduction ............................................................................................................. 43 3.2 Estimating Climate-induced Impacts: A Review of Methods and Modeling Approaches ....................................................................................................................... 44 3.2.1 The Biophysical Approach ............................................................................ 44 vi Page 3.2.1.1 Process-based Models ............................................................................... 45 3.2.1.2 Empirical Statistical Models ..................................................................... 50 3.2.2 The Socio-economic Approach ..................................................................... 52 3.2.2.1 Bio-Economic Farm Models (BEFM) ...................................................... 54 3.2.2.2 Partial Equilibrium (PE) Models .............................................................. 55 3.2.2.3 Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) Models .................................... 57 3.2.3 The Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) Approach ................................. 61 3.3 Adaptation in Impact Assessment of Climate Change ............................................ 64 3.4 Summary ................................................................................................................. 68 CHAPTER 4. CLIMATE CHANGE, AGRICULTURE AND THE ADAPTATION POTANTIAL OF THE 'PLAN MAROC VERT' IN MOROCCO: A CGE ANALYSIS 70 4.1 Introduction ............................................................................................................. 70 4.2 The Morocco Country-based CGE Model .............................................................. 71 4.3 Description of Regionalization Assumptions and Data .......................................... 74 4.4 Yield Projections and Scenarios Analysis for Morocco .......................................... 79 4.4.1 Climate-induced Yield Projections ................................................................ 79 4.4.2 Scenario Analysis and the PMV Strategy ...................................................... 99 4.4.2.1 Scenario Analysis for the Morocco CGE model ...................................... 99 4.4.2.2 A Discussion of the Plan Maroc Vert (PMV) Strategy .......................... 103 vi 4.5 Simulation Results and Discussion ....................................................................... 113 4.5.1 Welfare and Macroeconomic Impacts of the PMV Strategy ....................... 113 4.5.2 Macroeconomic Impacts of Climate Change without the PMV (CC-Only) and with the PMV (CC-PMV) ........................................................................................ 118 4.5.3 Climate Change Impacts on Household Income, Consumption and Welfare Without (CC-Only) and With (CC-PMV) the PMV Strategy ................................. 124 4.5.4 Sectoral Impacts ........................................................................................... 132 4.6 Summary and Conclusions .................................................................................... 142 CHAPTER 5. TRADE LIBERALIZATION AND ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE IN MOROCCO ............................................................................................. 147 vii Page 5.1 Introduction ........................................................................................................... 147 5.2 Modeling Framework:
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