CLIMATE CRISIS Th e Qu e st for Green Grow th CREDIT CRISIS

BROOKINGS BLUM ROUNDTABLE 2009

authors Kemal Dervis¸, Abigail Jones, Karen Kornbluh, and Sarah Puritz

co-chairs Richard C. Blum, Kemal Dervis¸, and Strobe Talbott Photo by Alex Irvin Photo by Alex

he Global Economy and Development program at the Brookings Institution examines the opportunities and challenges presented by globalization, and it Trecommends solutions to help shape the policy debate. Recognizing that the forces of globalization transcend disciplinary boundaries, the program draws on scholars from the fields of economics, development, and political science, building on Brookings’ worldwide reputation for high-quality, independent research. These experts focus their research, analysis, and policy innovation in three key areas: the road out of poverty, the drivers shaping the global economy, and the rise of new economic powers.

The Aspen Institute seeks to foster enlightened leadership, the appreciation of timeless ideas and values, and open-minded dialogue on contemporary issues. Through seminars, policy programs, conferences, and leadership development initiatives, the Institute and its international partners seek to encourage the pursuit of common ground and a deeper understanding in a nonpartisan and nonideological setting.

Realizing Rights: The Ethical Globalization Initiative, a project led by Mary Robinson, the former president of Ireland and United Nations high commissioner for human rights, brings key stakeholders together in new alliances to integrate concepts of human rights, gender sensitivity, and enhanced accountability into efforts to address global challenges and governance shortcomings.

The Blum Center for Developing Economies focuses on finding solutions to the most pressing needs of the world’s poor from its base at the University of California, Berkeley, with activities spanning a number of the university’s campuses, including Berkeley, Davis, San Francisco, and the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory. The Blum Center’s innovation teams are working to deliver safe water and sanitation in eight countries, life-saving mobile services throughout Africa and Asia, and new, efficient energy tech- nologies. In addition, the Center’s academic minor in global poverty and practice gives undergraduates the requisite knowledge and real-world experience to become dynamic participants in the fight against poverty. Photo by Alex Irvin Photo by Alex

Foreword

From July 30 to August 1, 2009, roughly forty preeminent policymakers, practitioners, and business A Blueprint for Transatlantic leaders from around the world convened for the Sixth Annual Brookings Blum Roundtable in Aspen, Climate Cooperation: (from left to right) William Antholis (Brookings), Colorado, to advance concrete strategies for tackling climate change in the midst of a global economic Cem Özedmir (Alliance ’90/The downturn. Starting from the premise that climate solutions must create jobs and opportunities for eco- Greens), John Podesta (Center for American Progress) nomic empowerment, and that strategies to revitalize the global economy must be both climate conscious and climate resilient, the roundtable sought to forge win–win solutions to tackle two of the world’s most pressing challenges. The roundtable was hosted by Richard C. Blum and the Brookings Institution’s Global Economy and Development program, with the support of honorary co-chairs Walter Isaacson of the Aspen Institute and Mary Robinson of Realizing Rights: The Ethical Globalization Initiative. Previous Brookings Blum round- tables have focused on U.S. foreign assistance reform (2004); the private sector’s role in development (2005); the complex ties between poverty and the natural resource curse, youth bulges, and corrupt institutions (2006); the expanding role of philanthropy and social enterprises in international development (2007); and building climate change resilience in the developing world (2008). Reports from those expert gatherings are available at www.brookings.edu/global/brookings-blum-roundtable.aspx. Rather than summarize the conference proceedings, this essay—like those from previous years—seeks to weave together the informed exchanges that emerged during the three-day discussion and to build on last year’s in-depth examination of the links between global climate change and poverty alleviation. A companion set of policy briefs, “Climate Change Policy: Recommendations to Reach Consensus,” which provides timely and concise recommendations for global policymakers, is available at www.brookings.edu.

Acknowledgments The roundtable was made possible by a generous grant from Richard C. Blum, chairman of Blum Capital Partners and founder of the Blum Center for Developing Economies, with additional support from the Markle Foundation. The roundtable’s organizers extend special thanks and appreciation to Sandy Burke, Eileen Gallagher, Merve Gurel, Katie Short, Anne Smith, and Amy Wong of Brookings for ensuring its resounding success. Thanks are also due to Shankar Sastry of the University of California, Berkeley, for constructive input on the invitee list, Peggy Clark of Realizing Rights: The Ethical Globalization Initiative for assistance in crafting the agenda, and Brookings colleagues William Antholis and Adele Morris for welcome assistance in developing the conference agenda and for very helpful comments on a draft of this report.

1 Introductory Note

he publication of this report was implications for future cooperation in the postponed to incorporate the out- fight against climate change. Tcomes of the Fifteenth Conference Although it is not comprehensive, the of the states that are parties to the Copenhagen Accord takes historic steps United Nations Framework Convention that previous negotiations were not able on Climate Change (UNFCCC), which to reach. First, with the accord, for the first met in Copenhagen from December 7 to time nearly every country in the world—all 18, 2009. As the Sixth Annual Brookings but 6 of the 193 countries represented at Blum Roundtable concluded in August the conference—has officially recognized 2009, there were high hopes around the the importance of climate change and world, given the Kyoto Protocol’s approach- the key building blocks required to curb it. ing expiration, that historic steps would Second, the accord signifies a universal be taken in Copenhagen toward a new, recognition of most scientists’ view that it legally binding, comprehensive international would be prudent to limit global warming to treaty tackling many of the key obstacles 2 °C above preindustrial levels to substan- from previous negotiations—from carbon tially reduce the risk of irreversible changes emissions targets to technology transfer in the world’s climate. policies. But these hopes started to fade These symbolic agreements may seem during the fall of 2009. trivial, but they are an essential basis for As it turned out, the UNFCCC effective international cooperation on Copenhagen conference confirmed mitigating climate change—as shown, for these limited expectations. Rather than a instance, by the unprecedented participa- comprehensive, decisive way forward, it tion of more than a hundred heads of produced the Copenhagen Accord, a brief state in Copenhagen, which brought a new political declaration that sets out broad level of legitimacy to the effort. Headway principles but does not really deal with was also made on two crucial challenges the key sticking points blocking progress plaguing previous negotiations: financing toward a low-carbon world economy. The for developing countries, and transparency accord fell short of the high expecta- in reporting emission reduction efforts. The tions preceding the conference—it does Copenhagen Accord contains a collective not stipulate emission caps, does not commitment by developed countries to provide details for financing or for technol- provide $30 billion in short-term funding ogy transfer, and is not legally binding. for immediate action until 2012 and $100 However, given that the conference was on billion annually in long-term financing by the brink of collapse 48 hours before its 2020. The accord also makes progress in concluding session, one might nonetheless establishing a method for measurement, step back and review the accord’s positive reporting, and verification, which many view

2 Photo by Alex Irvin Photo by Alex

(from left to right) Ernest Aryeetey (Africa Growth Initiative, Brookings), Helen Clark (United Nations Development Program), Raymond Offenheiser (Oxfam America)

as essential for any binding agreement to consequences of climate change require efited from a much-accelerated process be effective (as well as a major prerequisite much broader representation than those of implementation. Although the G-20 and for the U.S. Congress to pass pending leg- on how to eliminate its causes. Likewise, other informal channels of governance islation relevant to these issues). And even climate adaptation affects all countries, cannot produce legally binding proposals, though it is a political declaration lacking albeit at varied levels, but only a relatively these recent events have shown that verbal detail, the accord will most likely form the small number of countries emit the majority intent shared on the global stage provides basis for ongoing negotiations; yet it must of greenhouse gases (GHGs) into the significant political momentum for achieving be immediately fleshed out before the next atmosphere. Thus a much smaller, flexible real progress. conference of the parties to the UNFCCC forum is needed to effectively confront the This, of course, is not to say that the in Mexico City at the end of 2010. key challenges of reducing GHG emis- formal channels of governance are not Perhaps Copenhagen’s most telling sions—and, as Copenhagen proved, the essential. Although leaders can facilitate outcome was to reveal the inadequacy current process is unlikely to result in a action by participating in informal chan- of the current international process for valuable cooperative agreement to tackle nels such as the G-20 and the Major confronting climate change. Because the the massive risks posed by climate change. Economies Forum, their actual decisions UNFCCC conferences are run under UN In this context, effective forums for are made through these formal channels at system rules—whereby all countries have facilitating the global fight against climate both the national and international levels. an equal voice, without any weighting by change include the Group of Twenty Yet to avoid deadlocked negotiations, as population, resources, or willingness to (G-20), the Major Economies Forum on seen in Copenhagen, the informal chan- deploy these resources—any country can Energy and Climate, and the like, which nels can provide a streamlined process for call a halt to the proceedings by making a have taken center stage in the wake of the proposals that can then be reported back procedural objection during plenary ses- 2009 worldwide financial and economic to larger, globally representative bodies to sions. Furthermore, all final decisions must crisis. The nations that form the G-20 emit gain broader support and produce a legal be made unanimously. Although universal approximately 85 percent of global GHGs, agreement. Thus, although the Copenhagen representation is laudable and gives the making their meetings appropriate venues Accord is a first, small step in the right process global legitimacy, in Copenhagen for climate change negotiations. And the direction in addressing the risks and the rules’ constrictions allowed minor global economy has already witnessed effects of climate change, a timely, rigorous, climate change actors to stop all progress. the efficiency gains from these smaller, concerted effort using both the formal and To avoid this continual probability of more manageable leader-level meetings in informal channels of global governance will stalemate, future collaborative efforts on Washington, London, and Pittsburgh, where be essential to make real strides. climate change should be calibrated to fit leaders were able to make bold proposals, the particular task. For instance, discus- which were then reviewed and fine-tuned sions on how to cope with the potential by formal national institutions and ben-

3 Converging Crises

Spurring Growth, Stabilizing the Planet

4 “We face a major challenge of public education about the urgency of stabilizing the Earth’s climate before temperatures rise by 3.6 °F. Scientists believe that if global warming hits that tipping point, the consequences could be catastrophic and irreversible. If not our own fate, than the fate of our children is at stake. Citizens must recognize those stakes and understand the facts. That’s the only way to get a critical mass of people supporting—or, if necessary, pressuring—their elected represen- tatives to take the necessary action in time.” — Strobe Talbott President, Brookings

s the global economy struggles to their home countries is estimated to have tries, agricultural yields could drop as much sustain its recovery from the deep- fallen by 6.1 percent to $317 billion in as 50 percent by 2020. By the 2080s, Aest recession in sixty years, another 2009, and the fall in commodity prices has Africa’s arid and semiarid terrain may challenge looms large: preventing the Earth sent many commodity-exporting countries expand by 5 to 8 percent, and its wheat from warming more than 3.6 °F, widely con- into recessions.2 In Sub-Saharan Africa, the production may cease entirely. Already, sidered by climate experts as the accept- World Bank’s Global Monitoring Report roughly a quarter of Africa’s population is able level to reduce the risk of irreversible 2009 finds that “growth . . . will fall to under high-water stress, and by 2020, that global damage resulting from climate 1.7 percent in 2009, from 5.5 percent in number is projected to approach between change. To meet these challenges, we must 2008, . . . [constituting] the weakest growth 75 to 250 million. Around the world, sea- look beyond our national borders, recognize rate since the 1990s.”3 Previous growth level rise will disproportionately affect the that we face an uncertain future, and col- decelerations in regions of the developing world’s poor, for approximately 14 percent laborate to ensure our collective well-being. world have been associated with increases of the developing world’s population resides Our success or failure will depend both on in poverty and in infant and child mortality, in coastal areas. By 2080, another 600 our timeliness and resolve—and will shape along with erosions in primary and sec- million people around the world could be the fate of our planet for years to come. ondary school enrollment—exacerbating pushed into acute malnutrition, an addi- Although tentative signs of recovery intergenerational poverty. Because of this tional 1.8 billion people could be facing from the global financial and economic damage done by the crisis, it is all the more water scarcity, and nutrition and public crisis are gaining strength, policymakers important that the recovery be inclusive and health will likely deteriorate. Infectious dis- around the world are still grappling with broad based. eases such as malaria will spread.5 In short, the effects of the crisis on the real Moreover, climate change science has the poorest developing countries, and the economy. In the United States, unemploy- raised the stakes. A growing number of large proportion of the world’s poor living ment is still historically high and credit is scientists assert that earlier forecasts may within their borders, are most vulnerable to still constrained. The International Labor have been too conservative and that the the threat of climate change. Organization predicts that employment rate of climate change may be surpassing It was against this backdrop that levels in those countries with a high gross even worst-case scenarios. New evidence the world’s leaders and climate experts domestic product (GDP) per capita will suggests that sea levels could rise more gathered in Copenhagen to try to forge not return to precrisis levels before 2013.1 than twice as much as forecast in 2007 a comprehensive, international climate And social protection programs are by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate change treaty. As noted above, the end suffering as nations must find ways to Change (IPCC) in its Fourth Assessment result was less than satisfactory. Because cover budget shortfalls. Report.4 It is also true that some predic- only modest gains were achieved in In the developing world, fragile social tions, such as the one related to the melting Copenhagen in technology transfer safety nets are putting ever larger popula- of the Himalayan glaciers, were too alarm- mechanisms, verification systems, and tions at risk, as the economic bases for ing. Overall, however, the message is one of financing for developing countries and no these nets are increasingly jeopardized as great uncertainty and large, long-term risks. real progress was made on curbing global a result of the global crisis. Thus, foreign The climate change crisis is hitting the GHG emissions, it is now essential that direct investment has suffered. The flow of poorest countries hardest. According to the the international community act quickly remittances from workers abroad back to IPCC’s 2007 data, in some African coun- to reinvigorate climate policy discussions.

5 “We are in the midst of a terrible financial and economic crisis, but this crisis is also an opportunity. Had there been no crisis, we might not be investing the way we are in greening the economy. The need for stimulus, the need for countries around the world to devote 5 percent of GDP to new spending, has created an opportunity that may not have otherwise existed. To the degree that there is a silver lining to this crisis, it is in the fact the recession itself has reduced our [GHG] emissions growth, and we are making more progress in greening our economy.” — Michael Froman Deputy Assistant to the President and Deputy National Security Adviser for International Photo by Ralph Alswang Economic Affairs, National Security Council and National Economic Council Photo by Alex Irvin

Individual nations’ domestic responses are the first movers on GHG abatement as also vital and cannot afford to be curbed by a result of their capacity and resources, slowly recovering economies. In the near international obligations, and, critically, term, as governments begin to consider growing awareness and concern during pulling back their economic stimulus efforts, the past decade about the adverse effects green (that is, environmentally sustain- of a changing climate. able) fiscal policies—such as incentives for Yet economic conditions around the low-carbon research and development, and world are now recalibrating constituents’ the reduction of subsidies for high-polluting concerns. For instance, a majority of technologies—are effective ways to spur Americans recently told the Gallup Poll clean, sustainable economic growth. In that economic growth should be given the long term, domestic and international priority over environmental protection, even climate policies must be sufficiently resilient if the environment suffers to some extent— to weather volatile economic conditions and for the first time in Gallup’s twenty-five- changing political currents. year history of asking the question.6 And a January 2010 Pew Research Center survey on the public’s priorities reports A Zero-Sum Game? that global warming is now in last place, Economic development has long gone having dropped 10 percentage points, to hand in hand with environmental degrada- 28 percent, from 2007. 7 tion, leading to the perceived trade-off Meeting the climate change challenge between environmental integrity and in the midst of a slowly recovering economy economic growth. Furthermore, meeting reveals the wisdom in Albert Einstein’s environmental challenges has traditionally observation that “no problem can be solved been perceived as a luxury that only rich from the same level of consciousness nations can afford. And indeed, climate that created it.” As long as the problem is change has largely conformed to these perceived as a trade-off between improv- precepts; though the intensity of GHG ing living standards and the health of the emissions tends to diminish at high levels planet, then the ability of countries to of income, overall emissions rise mono- alleviate climate change will be severely tonically with income at every level. It constrained. Consequently, we must focus appears, therefore, that carbon-intensive on policy initiatives that will enable climate energy is a key ingredient in economic solutions to create jobs and opportunities development—accompanied by damaging for economic empowerment and devise environmental effects. And as with sulfur strategies to revitalize the global economy dioxide emissions (which cause acid rain), that can be both climate conscious and developed countries have largely been climate resilient.

6 “Because climate change transcends borders “Countries should not, but could conceivably, close and requires collective action, all the traditional their borders to trade and to financial flows. They grievances of the North/South divide cannot cannot, however, close their borders to [GHG] be brought to bear on this issue. Time is not emissions. That is what makes climate protection on our side and we stand to lose too much. It the ultimate global public good. Progress on this cannot be perceived as a zero-sum game.” front could signal ways forward for some of the — Madeleine Albright thorniest issues in global governance.” Chair, Albright Stonebridge Group; — Kemal Dervis¸ former U.S. Secretary of State Vice President and Director, Global Economy and Development, Brookings Photo by Alex Irvin

A Terrible Thing to Waste could in turn threaten both labor demand climate change depends on leaders’ ability and standards of living.9 Price signals on to ratchet up international coordination In Nonzero: The Logic of Human Destiny, carbon, however, have the power to unleash efforts and to hash out the difficult details Robert Wright argues that humans have, a wave of innovation and investment in that have hampered previous attempts. over time, learned to grapple with increas- green energy that will be needed to make Failing to act creatively and in a timely ing complexity, and in so doing, how to turn clean technology cost-competitive and fashion is not an option. It will produce an zero-sum problems into positive-sum solu- sustainable well into the future.10 These outcome that is far more costly than the tions. At this moment in human history, such transformative technologies could drasti- status quo—according to the United Nations a hat trick is urgently needed—and increas- cally change production chains, patterns of Environment Program, with the “business ingly possible. The ability to finance and urbanization, agricultural practices, and the as usual scenario” estimate of 5 to 6 °C deploy clean technology, for example, could transportation sector—bringing with them (9–10.8 °F) increase in temperature, “the create employment opportunities while opportunities, investments, and entrepre- world economy could sustain losses equiva- simultaneously lowering GHG emissions. neurship that will offer multiple dividends lent to 5 to 10 percent of global gross Likewise, promoting ecosystem services for our future. domestic product.”11 Although there may be and forest conservation produces win–win Domestic short-term stimulus efforts some additional time because the financial opportunities for economic empowerment will not be enough. As the global economy crisis has caused a slowdown in growth and and carbon sequestration. recovers from the financial crisis, it is attendant contractions in energy demand The need to rethink the prevailing essential that green policies remain a key and GHG emissions, too much is at stake paradigm for economic growth in the wake element of the global political response to simply prolong negotiations and delay of the recent financial crisis has presented and that leaders work patiently to establish difficult decisions. an opportunity to forge policies that at a comprehensive international agreement once meet urgent economic and social to address the risks of climate change. needs while finding a new, low-carbon Such an agreement is required to lay the path to prosperity and growth. Through groundwork for a truly sustainable, long- domestic stimulus programs, many leaders term economic recovery. The difficulties at are demonstrating that green growth is a the Copenhagen conference reflect the valuable tool for continued prosperity, which challenges ahead; yet the potential cost of is evident in the billions spent on green inaction is too great. The commitment of infrastructure investments. With China and the new U.S. president, as reflected in his the United States in the lead, key sectoral hard-won victory for climate legislation in beneficiaries include rail transportation, the House of Representatives, is an impor- water infrastructure, power grid expansion, tant development, as is the Copenhagen and improved building efficiency.8 Such Accord, which takes some important first investments are not without extra cost; steps toward cooperation on efforts to in fact, it is sometimes argued that green mitigate the consequences of climate policies will be followed by higher energy change. Whether or not these steps can be Delegation of Indonesia, at COP15 in Copenhagen, Denmark. prices to be passed on to consumers, which converted into effective global action on

7 Growth after the Storm

Weathering the Financial Crisis

8 “For climate change negotiators, the financial crisis has shown that it is possible to mobilize large sums of money to avoid global meltdown. But mobilizing unprecedented resources to revitalize the economy required a catastrophic event—the col- lapse of Lehman Brothers—to focus people’s attention and move policymakers into action. Rallying funds will not be the issue. Doing so absent catastrophic climate effects might be.” — Rakesh Mohan Distinguished Consulting Professor, Stanford Center for International Develop- ment, Stanford University; former Deputy Governor of the Reserve Bank of India Growth after Photo by Alex Irvin

uch of the world economy quarters—almost impossible to attain. In 30,000 to 50,000 infants may perish experienced a steep recession Sub-Saharan Africa alone, the proportion of in Sub-Saharan Africa.14 And because the Storm Min 2008 and during the first half women who perish in childbirth has stayed the poor lack robust social safety nets of 2009. Although the financial crisis virtually constant during the fifteen years to support them in hard times, they are has caused much darkness around the since the MDGs were set.13 especially vulnerable. Changing economic globe, its shadow is beginning to pass. As a result of the global financial circumstances may force them to make Despite a sluggish recovery, the global crisis, development challenges have been life-altering decisions, like pulling their economy appears to be expanding once exacerbated. The World Bank estimates children out of school or selling precious again—although employment will continue that 90 million more people will be living livestock—choices that entrench poverty to trail behind. Advanced economies are in extreme poverty by the end of 2010, and propagate the same vicious cycle that projected to expand by about 1.25 percent roughly 60 million more people will have the world is intent on remedying. in 2010, following a contraction of 3.5 lost their jobs in 2009, and an additional percent in 2009, while the International Monetary Fund projects that real GDP growth in emerging economies, led primar- ily by China and India, will reach almost 5 percent in 2010.12 In some nations, the crisis has provoked a re-evaluation of gov- ernment spending; in others, it has swept new political parties into office. Yet for all countries, the crisis has fundamentally shaken the global financial architecture, reshaped global governing institutions, and, in many respects, ushered in a new world order. Already, the world is struggling to meet the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs)—the targets for human develop- ment agreed to by 189 world leaders in 2000. Today, more than 1 billion people are expected to be counted among the world’s chronically hungry, jeopardizing the first MDG—to halve this proportion by 2015. More than 500,000 women still die each year from complications during pregnancy or childbirth, making the third MDG—reduc- ing the maternal mortality ratio by three-

9 Managing Risk

The Climate Change Challenge

10 “The tenets of any post-Kyoto climate change agreement must support low-carbon economic growth in order to affirm each county’s right to develop and to secure our planet for future generations. At its core, it must be a deal for development or there will not be a deal.” — Helen Clark Administrator, United Nations Development Program; former Prime Minister of New Zealand Photo by Alex Irvin

ccording to the Pew Center on For example, according to the Yale Economic Cooperation and Development Global Climate Change, carbon University economist Robert Mendelsohn, (OECD) between 2000 and 2004, in devel- Aemissions have increased 145- climate-driven changes in global agricultural oping countries as many as 1 in 79 people fold globally since 1850 (the start of the output will acutely affect poor households were affected. Monsoon floods and storms Industrial Revolution)—from 200 million to in the developing world. Reductions will be in South Asia during the 2007 season 29 billion tons per year—and are projected especially severe in rain-fed crop farming, as displaced more than 14 million people in to increase another 54 percent by 2030 in distinct from irrigated farming and livestock India and 7 million in Bangladesh. Globally, a business-as-usual scenario. Most emis- management; for example, Chinese farmers the 1 billion people who live in urban sions come from a relatively small number on rain-fed farms will likely lose annual net slums, on fragile hillsides, or on flood-prone of countries. In 2005, twenty-five econo- revenue of $95 per hectare per 1 °C, while riverbanks are among the most vulnerable mies (counting the European Union mem- their African counterparts will lose $28.16 to such extreme weather events.18 bers as one), accounting for 75 percent of Meanwhile, William Cline of the Peterson Climate change is also likely to adversely the world’s population and 90 percent of Institute for International Economics predicts affect the health status of millions impover- its GDP, emitted 84 percent of the world’s that developing countries will suffer an aver- ished people with a low adaptive capacity. GHGs; yet their per capita incomes at age 10 to 25 percent decline in agricultural An increased prevalence of malnutrition market exchange rates varied by a factor productivity under business-as-usual GHG is likely, while changing pathogens and of 58, and their per capita carbon dioxide emissions (discounting carbon fertilization). vector-borne diseases will extend the reach

(CO2) emissions differed by a factor of 46. The poor will also suffer from heightened of malaria and dengue fever. And though The top six emitters—the United States, water stress and scarcity. Changed runoff climate change will bring some health China, the European Union, Russia, India, patterns and continued glacial melting benefits—for example, fewer deaths from and Japan—accounted for more than 60 will have significant implications for water exposure to bitter cold—such benefits will be percent of global emissions. Moreover, the availability, interacting with already severe greatly outweighed by the many spreading United States and China alone accounted ecological pressures on water systems.17 cardiorespiratory, diarrheal, and infectious for 40 percent of emissions.15 According to the IPCC, Central Asia, diseases, and increased morbidity and mor- Yet it is in the poorest countries—in Northern China, and the northern part of tality from heat waves, floods, and droughts. regions that are least able to cope—where South Asia face serious vulnerabilities The poor, though largely innocent bystand- people are likely to suffer the most and associated with the retreat of glaciers whose ers as industrial countries emit massive the soonest from climate change’s adverse river systems provide water and sustain food amounts of GHGs into the atmosphere, will effects. Climate stability is a textbook supplies for more than 2 billion people. likely suffer the most immediate and devas- example of a global public good. A given Climate change projections also point to tating consequences of climate change. quantity of heat-trapping gas emitted in intensified tropical storms, more frequent Chicago, Istanbul, Beijing, or anywhere and widespread floods, and worsening in the world will have the same effect on droughts, for all of which the risks of Uncertainty Is No Reason atmospheric concentrations. But the impact disaster are skewed toward developing for Inaction of these concentrations on climate in any countries—whereas 1 in 1,500 people were The world is on a path toward more given location will be quite different from affected annually by climate disasters in than doubling global atmospheric GHG one region to another. countries belonging to the Organization for concentrations—to 1,000 parts per million,

11 “Traditional modes of multilateral engagement are ill suited to meet the climate change challenge, since there is a clear disconnect between the pace of climate science and international negotiations. Coordinated action must take place on a condensed timeline. This is a uniquely difficult challenge for global governance, and one that will require flexible frameworks to accommodate changing circumstances.” — Mark Suzman Director of Policy and Advocacy, Global Development Program, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

from arctic permafrost thawing—that could dramatically amplify temperature increases, to say nothing of the fact that the economic effects of unrestrained climate change are estimated to reach between 2 to 5 percent of the world’s annual GDP by midcentury.19 The global community acted quickly and decisively when experts sounded the alarm of a possible global influenza pandemic in the fall of 2009—not because the gravity of the situation was known but because the potential consequences were too hor- in CO2-equivalent terms—by the end of change are such that despite the uncer- rific. Likewise, even a small possibility of the century, resulting in an average global tainty surrounding the potential severity of catastrophic consequences resulting from temperature increase of roughly 10 °F. its effects, precautionary action must be climate change should be cause for immedi- To have just a 50/50 chance of keeping taken. Addressing climate change should ate action. temperature increases below 3.6 °F—the not be perceived as a marginal investment estimated level most scientists believe will decision aiming to smooth consumption or substantially reduce the risk of the worst human well-being optimally over time, but Negotiating an consequences of climate change—it will rather as a crucial safeguard against the International Response be necessary to stabilize concentrations at chance of disastrous, irreversible damage To collectively meet the challenge of climate about 450 parts per million. to our planet. In other words, though we do change and to stave off its worst effects, There is still a huge amount of uncer- not know with certainty what will happen the international community gathered in Rio tainty about the processes that mediate and when, we do know that catastrophic de Janeiro at the Earth Summit in 1992 between GHG emissions, their concen- outcomes are possible. For example, the to ratify the United Nations Framework tration in the atmosphere, the effects of melting of the Greenland and West Antarctic Convention on Climate Change, which different concentrations on climate, and ice sheets would cause large sea-level rises, what changes in climate will mean for which would change the world’s physical committed the ratifying countries to stabilize biodiversity, agriculture, sea levels, and and human geography. Changes in the atmospheric GHG concentrations at a level the Earth’s many other climate-dependent thermohaline circulations (the “conveyer belt” that will prevent dangerous human interfer- characteristics. There is also uncertainty as of ocean heat that determines much of the ence with the climate system. The developed to how fast all these processes will unfold; Earth’s climate) affecting the Gulf Stream countries agreed to assist the developing in some cases, the phenomena seem to be would lead to dramatic changes in global countries and to reduce GHG emissions to happening faster than earlier IPCC reports weather patterns. Climate tipping points 1990 levels by 2000. In 1995, the Berlin had predicted. Uncertainty should not, could be reached, unleashing self-reinforc- Mandate calling for the negotiation of bind- however, be a rationale for inaction. ing multiplier feedback effects—saturated ing targets led to the 1997 Kyoto Protocol The catastrophic risks posed by climate carbon sinks, and releases of methane to the UNFCCC, whereby the developed

12 “Building Africa’s capacity to negotiate in Copenhagen will be critical to ensure that the post-2012 climate change agreement supports the conti- nent’s economic development and adaptation needs. To do so, we need to articulate our needs more coherently and systematically, to use science to support our position, and to advocate our case through targeted diplomacy. We must formulate a position for Africa that is truly representative of the multiple crises that Africa faces—and only Africans can do that.” — Mo Ibrahim Chairman, Mo Ibrahim Foundation

Photo by Alex Irvin

countries agreed to emissions reductions Protocol. But now, in the wake of the lim- issues such as reducing GHG emissions. averaging 5.2 percent below 1990 levels ited Copenhagen outcomes, it is alarmingly This is where informal channels of gover- by 2008–12. Kyoto provided flexibility to clear that this action plan failed to produce nance and greater collaboration among meet targets through international emis- an adequate agreement for a coordinated international organizations can play a key sions trading (that is, trading emissions international response to the threat of part in facilitating international negotia- allowances among countries with emissions climate change. tions. Within the more flexible construct targets), which credits emissions reductions At the crux of the impasse stalling of the G-20, for instance, the leaders of from projects in the developed world (using climate change negotiations are several key the world’s largest GHG emitters can form what is known as Joint Implementation) and challenges: establishing how to account for more personal relationships and focus on in the developing world (using the Clean comparable efforts to abate GHGs among the detailed, thorny issues that prove too Development Mechanism). One hundred and developed countries; determining how difficult to manage at the huge UNFCCC eighty-two countries have ratified Kyoto—but rapidly emerging countries—which are set meetings. Although legally binding arrange- the United States rejected it in 2001, and to account for the majority of future flows— ments cannot be produced under informal because it is the world’s largest GHG emit- will contribute to international abatement governance mechanisms, the proposals that ter, any effective climate negotiations will efforts; overcoming contentious issues they can endorse streamline the process require its buy-in. centering on intellectual property rights within the formal, treaty-based institutions. Subsequent efforts have continued, and competitiveness concerns to develop In this respect, there also needs to be making some progress toward meeting and broadly deploy clean technologies; and greater cooperative interaction among the the UNFCCC’s mandate. At the thirteenth determining how adaptation finance bur- international organizations. The risks posed conference of the parties to the UNFCCC dens are shared, how revenues are raised, by climate change threaten all aspects of in Bali in 2007, the participants launched how funds are governed, and the nature of our global health, including crop yields, water formal negotiations on strengthened action any conditionality that might be attached to availability, the spread of infectious diseases, against climate change, known as the “Bali these funds. sea-level rises and storm surges, popula- Roadmap,” which included the “Bali Action On the heels of Copenhagen, it is tion displacement, and political stability. Plan,” outlining a new course of action to clear that additional paths for progress on The international institutions most relevant reach international cooperation on climate addressing climate change are needed. As to these issues—such as the World Health change. This plan, which was supported noted above, the UN system is severely Organization, the World Trade Organization, by the United States, called for “measur- limited by the procedural rules outlined in the International Energy Agency, the able, reportable, and verifiable” mitigation its institutional charter, which have greatly Food and Agriculture Organization, the actions or commitments by developed hindered progress in international negotia- International Monetary Fund, and the World countries, mitigation action by developing tions on climate change. Negotiations with Bank—need to exploit their synergies and countries, and technology financing and representatives from every country on the tighten their focus to encourage a global capacity-building support for developing globe may be appropriate for matters per- response to climate change. countries—culminating in an ambitious, taining to climate adaptation, for example, negotiated treaty at the 2009 meeting in but are not conducive for the intimate Copenhagen, which would enter into force deliberations required for a relatively small before January 2013 to succeed the Kyoto number of countries to agree on mitigation

13 Green Shoots

A Sustainable Recovery

14 “Supporting comprehensive clean energy and climate policies is an assured way to put our country back to work and on a path toward long-term economic prosperity. Investing $150 billion a year in the country’s clean energy economy could create 1.7 million jobs in growth industries like retrofitting and constructing new energy-efficient buildings and manufacturing next-generation, plug-in hybrid and electric vehicles. The benefits of transitioning to a clean energy economy are available today. Action must be taken now for the American people, for our planet, and for our economy.” — Maggie L. Fox President and Chief Executive Officer, Alliance for Climate Protection

ithin the context of the world’s trillion fiscal stimulus is about $465 billion; backyard” attitude. Thus, such projects are Green Shoots concurrent financial and climate though it is inherently difficult to accurately less consistent with the purpose of a short- Wcrises, how might we begin to determine if an investment is truly green, term economic stimulus. conceive of an integrated effort to tackle this figure does give some indication of the In all likelihood, the wholesale replace- both challenges in tandem? Domestically, relative opportunity and value governments ment of carbon-intensive activities with this ambitious but crucial endeavor must see in low-carbon growth as a key lever for green activities would hinder economic begins with green jobs—with investing in economic recovery. In this vein, China has recovery from the global crisis, given that green sectors of the economy that create invested 34 percent of its total economic nearly 40 percent of all jobs worldwide are net employment, both in the short term to stimulus budget on green investments; in carbon-intensive sectors.21 Yet strategic stimulate needed growth and in the long France, 18 percent; Germany, 13 percent; investments in ecosystem infrastructure, term to ensure the sustainability of the Mexico, 10 percent, the United States, 12 renewable energy technologies, and energy national, and consequently global, economy. percent; South Africa, 11 percent; and, efficiency in both old and new buildings Internationally, it begins with a firm rededi- leading the pack, South Korea, 79 percent. meet the crucial prerequisite of creating cation of nation-states to work toward the Primary green investments have been made jobs and reduce any tendency to lock in policy conclusions needed to constructively in modernizing the power grid, expanding new, inefficient capital stock that would move the fight against climate change for- rail systems, updating water and waste make it more difficult and costly to achieve ward. Only then can the price signals be put infrastructure, improving energy efficiency long-term environmental goals. A 2009 in place that will spur the level of innova- in new and existing buildings, and generat- report from the Global Climate Network tion and investment required for the world ing renewable power.20 confirms that with the right policies in economy’s widespread, low-carbon growth. For stimulus investments to yield short- place, China could create more than 40 But it also starts by leveraging the inroads term benefits, they must be labor intensive million new jobs in renewable electricity made by those local communities and so as to create employment opportunities generation, services, and high-technology nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) in the near term. Some green economic industries; Nigeria could add an additional that are promoting low-carbon growth; even activities fit this bill. For example, many 273,500 jobs in small-scale hydroelectric in the absence of a global treaty, to inform labor-intensive, shovel-ready opportunities and gas technologies with little effect on international climate change policies and to in the energy-efficiency realm—such as jobs in competing carbon-intensive sectors; develop best practices that can be shared weatherizing homes and installing solar India could create 243,000 jobs by 2020 across regions and sectors. Though there panels—promise energy savings well into in wind energy development; and Australia will always be trade-offs, in the long run the the future. Not only do these projects could likely create tens of thousands of transition toward a low-carbon economy provide short-term employment opportuni- new construction jobs in rural areas.22 In can accelerate sustainable growth. ties, but they will also reduce the long-term the United States, the Center for American cost of meeting climate change objec- Progress suggests that investing $150 tives. As the Harvard University economist billion in clean energy alone would create Climate Change Elixirs for the Robert Stavins has cautioned, other areas, an additional 1.7 million jobs.23 Ailing Economy including green infrastructure, require more Because enacting stimulus policies Analysts at the multinational bank HSBC gradual change as a result of building in the world’s least-developed countries estimate that the green portion of the $3.1 codes, permits, and a general “not in my is not feasible given their limited means,

15 “When the Greens left power in 2005, roughly 1.8 million people worked in environment-related jobs and environmental technology commanded about 8 percent of the country’s GDP. By 2020, projections indicate that green technology will account for 14 percent of GDP, which suggests that clean technology is one area that is still creating employment opportunities, even in the midst of the financial crisis. Germany is proving that green technology is a profitable growth industry.” — Cem Özdemir Chairman of the German Green Party, Alliance ’90 / The Greens Photo by Alex Irvin

many have begun developing low-carbon These technologies include everything nation.”26 For countries able to carve out a growth strategies based on their nationally from solar power to hydrogen fuel cells to niche in the development and production appropriate mitigation actions (NAMAs) carbon capture and storage to desalina- of clean technologies, the economic gains and national adaptation programs of action tion. And for these technologies to be truly could be massive, making cooperation on (NAPAs). In a way that is consistent with transformative, they must be adopted by the this issue incredibly difficult. a country’s development strategy, NAMAs world’s largest carbon-emitting countries— Because the demand for energy will enumerate voluntary mitigation actions that that is, the rapidly emerging economies and grow significantly in developing and move a developing country to green-growth the developed nations—which requires that rapidly emerging economies, taking steps pathways and contribute to global GHG they be cost-competitive, brought to scale, now to use energy more cost-effectively abatement. Having been developed through and effectively deployed. will yield multiple dividends in the long the UNFCCC to identify priority adaptation Already, energy-related emissions of run. According to McKinsey & Company,

needs, NAPAs are country-driven efforts CO2 from non-OECD countries exceed increasing efficiency in energy use could that rank priority adaptation activities and emissions from those belonging to the “slow the growth of their energy demand by projects and in many ways inform strategies OECD by roughly 14 percent. But by 2030, more than half over the next twelve years.”

to promote climate-resilient, low-carbon energy-related CO2 emissions from these This would lead to energy demand in 2020 development. As of April 2009, thirty-nine of same countries are projected to exceed that is 25 percent lower than otherwise the forty-eight least-developed countries had those of the OECD countries by 77 percent. predicted—a reduction larger than China’s developed NAPAs, yet few projects had been Most of the emissions growth in the rising total energy consumption today.27 accepted for implementation due to insuf- powers will come from the consumption of And the benefits go well beyond abate- ficient funds and a lack of operational detail. fossil fuels (mainly coal, gas, and petro- ment; technology can be a powerful tool Still, NAMAs, which present a blueprint for leum), which are feeding power generation for development. Clean energy choices low-carbon growth, and NAPAs, which enu- and transportation needs.24 As the New for home use in poor communities would merate vulnerabilities, together could guide York Times columnist Thomas Friedman has have enormous health and human implica- the world’s poorest countries onto climate- written, “Anyone who looks at the growth of tions. More than half the world’s population resilient, green growth pathways. For though middle classes around the world and their still relies on biomass fuel and coal for stimulus funds are largely out of the question rising demands for natural resources, plus energy, which generate GHGs even more in the developing world, it stands to increase the dangers of climate change driven by dangerous than carbon and which take employment opportunities as industries shift our addiction to fossil fuels, can see that a painful toll on social welfare. Thus, four to expanding green sectors. clean renewable energy . . . is going to be thousand people die each day from indoor the next great global industry.”25 President air pollution—a greater loss than from Barack Obama recognized this opportunity malaria. According to the World Health Developing and and necessity to pursue the competitive Organization, renewable energies offer the Deploying Technology advantage in the global economy in his potential to electrify remote areas and to A key element of the green growth agenda State of the Union Address, “[because] bring potable water to the more than mil- is the development and deployment of the nation that leads the clean energy lions who die each year from contaminated clean technologies that will fuel economic economy will be the nation that leads the water or water-related diseases. development in a carbon-constrained world. global economy. And America must be that Yet because many of these countries

16 have a limited financial or technical capac- level will be to clarify concerns regarding to halve global emissions by 2050 can be ity to adopt clean technologies within the intellectual property rights. Because there achieved with existing technologies, yet requisite time frame, support for technology is a dearth of conclusive evidence as to national policies hinder their absorption. transfer is vital. Bilateral agreements, like the whether these rights are a barrier to diffus- Regulatory environments must be reformed, recent one for the U.S.-China Clean Energy ing clean technology across the range of supportive infrastructures are needed, and Research Center, signal progress in promot- key technologies, disagreements abound; financial incentives must be in place. The ing cooperative research and development though many developing countries are in Copenhagen Accord cursorily mentions a on these essential technologies. In the after- favor of compulsory licensing, some officials “technology mechanism” to facilitate and math of the Copenhagen conference, it is of nations in the developed world fear that accelerate the transfer of clean technology, vital to reach an international agreement that intellectual property right infractions, let but this is far from the detailed groundwork will allow sending the requisite price signals alone compulsory licensing, could undermine that was anticipated and is required. to stimulate widespread investment by the incentives to develop and deploy clean private sector. For even though a number of technologies.29 Countries will somehow need forward-looking venture capitalists in Silicon to balance their desire to reap the gains Reducing Deforestation Valley are now investing billions in next- from becoming global leaders in renew- Because forests soak up so much carbon, generation synthetic fuels, cellulosic ethanol, able technologies with the greater need to the carbon emitted when they are cut and cars and cement factories that mitigate maximize technology diffusion globally. down or set ablaze accounts for nearly 20 GHGs, investment in clean technologies will In addition to addressing challenges for percent of those global emissions due to still need to be significantly ramped up to technology transfer, progress must also human activities—a larger proportion than meet the additional $430 billion projected be made to foster a conducive, enabling either the entire global transport or indus- demand in 2020 for low-carbon technolo- environment for the adoption of clean tech- trial sector. And for every acre of tropical gies and energy efficiency in order to meet nologies—even for those technologies that forest that remains intact, 200 to 300 tons 28 the benchmark of 3.6 °F. are currently available. The International of CO2 can be sequestered. Thus maintain- A key challenge for advancing technol- Energy Agency estimates that 70 percent ing forests is a simple answer to the issue ogy transfer policies at the international of the GHG emissions reductions needed of how to combat climate change—but

17 Forests can improve water quality by filtering harmful pollutants, pathogens, and sediment that can cause illness in people and livestock. When the Kyoto Protocol was being a deceptively simple one. Though halt- Brazil’s Amazon Fund allows other nations negotiated in 1997, a number of roadblocks ing deforestation should be easier than to help fund reductions in its national thwarted efforts to fully incorporate forests rolling out electric cars or transitioning deforestation rate at a cost of $5 per into it: the perceived impermanence of 31 the electric grid, it has proven remarkably ton of CO2 equivalent. This is substan- forest-sequestered carbon (resulting in difficult to get the rules right so that the tially less than the current and projected temporary, nontradable GHG emissions world community can move the incentives allowance prices in developed-country credits); the fear of “leakage” or emissions for the farmers and loggers who live in and carbon markets, and analyses suggest beyond the boundaries of the forestry among the world’s forests in the direction that overall demand could reach billions project (for example, if logging demand of conservation. of tons of forest carbon assets between stays constant, deforestation might simply Today, the world’s tropical forests—which now and 2030. Between public and private be displaced and not averted); the perceived hold most of its forest carbon—are disap- mechanisms, U.S. government projections inability to demonstrate “additionality,” or that pearing at the alarming rate of 5 percent indicate that the climate bill passed by the deforestation would have occurred without a decade. Each year, more than 13 million House of Representatives in June 2009 forest carbon incentives; and concern about hectares of forest are lost, along with would generate about $14 billion in annual the expansion of the sphere of projects countless, largely unknown species and funding by 2020 for reducing tropical eligible for emissions crediting beyond ecosystem functions. And the problem is deforestation.32 The fact that today the for- afforestation and reforestation. The result very concentrated; Indonesia and Brazil est carbon market is less than $100 million, has been costly; just 0.09 percent of annual together are responsible for 50 percent of and thus makes up only 0.16 percent of the emissions reductions in Kyoto’s Clean global deforestation, and thus these two $64 billion worldwide market for carbon- Development Mechanism for the developing countries are among the top five sources denominated assets, points to a tremen- world come from forestry projects.36 of climate pollution. A few dozen other dous efficiency loss.33 It also highlights a Although the Kyoto Protocol failed to developing countries in the tropics account missed source of development funding of provide incentives to reduce deforesta- for much of the rest.30 more than $30 billion a year.34 tion, high hopes were placed on the Global carbon markets and other Moreover, deforestation puts the poor Copenhagen UNFCCC conference to financing mechanisms could provide at greater risk from climate change.35 The succeed in pushing forestry forward. And cost-effective means to both reduce GHG World Bank reports that 90 percent of the even with the muddled negotiations in emissions and generate income for impov- poorest of the poor—those living on less Copenhagen, there was clear progress on erished forest-dwelling communities and than one dollar a day—depend on forests the initiative known as Reducing Emissions forest-rich developing countries. Economic for part of their food, fuel, or livelihoods. from Deforestation and Degradation models predict a wide range of costs for Forests tend to soak up rainwater and (REDD). The leaders recognized the forest conservation, clustered between release it slowly, thereby acting as a natural “crucial role of reducing emission from

$5 to $20 per ton of CO2 equivalent, and defense against flooding and drought. deforestation and forest degradation” and

18 “Although there is still quite a bit to be done, best practices in forest conservation for carbon sequestration are emerging that link deforestation programs to national economic develop- ment plans, integrate key industry players, and include vulnerable, forest-dwelling communi- ties to ensure they participate fully in the process and benefit from it. These mechanisms are working now, and there’s every reason to believe that avoided deforestation projects can work very successfully going forward.” — Mark Tercek Photo by Alex Irvin President and Chief Executive Officer, The Nature Conservancy

endorsed the “immediate establishment of a mechanism including REDD-plus.”37 Yet despite this promising language, a meaningful legal text had been shelved because the conference produced no legally binding outcomes.38 Thus, leaders must work swiftly to establish the mecha- nism for reducing deforestation endorsed in the Copenhagen Accord. Notwithstanding the shortcomings of the Copenhagen conference, progress in three main areas has been made outside the UNFCCC negotiations to help put in place the needed price signals for carbon abatement. First, the international com- munity has learned a great deal since the inception of the Kyoto Protocol and thus can point to a number of projects in the voluntary market that are demonstrating that technical challenges are not reason enough to abandon REDD. For instance, in 1997 the Noel Kempff Mercado Climate Action Project (NKMCAP) was forged as a partnership between the Government of Bolivia, the Nature Conservancy, American Electric Power, BP Amoco, PacifiCorp, and the Friends of Nature Foundation (a Bolivian NGO). NKMCAP spans 1.5 million acres of Bolivian tropical forest and is expected to sequester roughly 5.8 mil- 39 lion tons of CO2 over three decades. To overcome concerns about the permanence of carbon sequestered through NKMCAP, the Noel Kempff Mercado National Park was expanded to include the project area and a permanent endowment was estab- lished to fund protection activities, thereby

19 “Responsibilities for forest policy are spread across a number of ministries including agriculture, energy, environment, and transportation. This fosters schizophrenic policy. Harmonization across ministries is needed to avoid incoherence and ensure that gains made in one sector are not eroded by policies in another.” — Carlos Manuel Rodríguez Vice President for Conservation Policy, Conservation Interna- tional; former Minister of Environment and Energy of Costa Rica

Photo by Alex Irvin

U.S. emitters could seek up to 5 percent of their reductions in overseas forest projects. California has already enacted climate leg- islation that creates economic incentives for forest conservation, including, potentially, in the tropics. And after a decade of resisting the integration of the forestry sector into climate policy, the European Union is now indicating that it would consider earmarking a portion of allowance auction revenues generated through the European Emissions Trading system to REDD-plus activities. Key challenges remain to ensure that much of the learning at the local level informs national, regional, and international agreements. To forge those systemic links, there must be clear channels of communi- increasing the probability of maintaining particularly instructive in that they evaluate cation and comprehensive representation at a healthy, standing forest site. To limit the effects of land-based climate change the negotiating table, forest-dwelling com- leakage, NKMCAP partnered with border- mitigation projects from climate, social, and munities must be empowered to shape poli- ing communities to develop a sustainable environmental standpoints, ensuring that cies, and new financial mechanisms must management plan, under which they projects achieve multiple development and be designed to connect local communities applied for legal land title to limit the risk of climate ends. Currently, several dozen proj- to international polluters and aggregate uncontrolled forest conversion. Any leakage ects in both the developed and developing small-scale forest conservation efforts for a that did occur was then deducted from worlds are using the standards to improve global market. the claimed carbon savings. And finally, to project design, and a number of govern- Ultimately, effective forest policy will address concerns regarding additionality, ments, including China, are using them as require a holistic, cross-sector approach NKMCAP demonstrated that without funds an effective means to guide sustainable to ensure that inroads made in one sector generated from the project, logging in the forestry initiatives.41 are not undermined by policies in another. park would have continued.40 Third, key national and regional climate Government agencies will need to cooper- Second, the voluntary forest carbon programs are moving toward provisions ate. Policies will need to be aligned. The market has coalesced around a number that would generate sizable new resources key will be to recognize that forest manage- of key standards, including the Climate, for the conservation of carbon-rich tropical ment is no longer solely an environmental Community & Biodiversity (CCB) Standards, forests in developing nations. If signed issue. Rather, at its core, it is about sustain- as well as in national and regional carbon into law, the American Clean Energy and able land management in support of food markets, to regulate REDD-plus and forest Security Act would annually mobilize mil- security and economic prosperity. carbon initiatives. The CCB Standards are lions of dollars for forest conservation, for

20 21 Guiding Lights

Agents Poised to Deliver Results

22 “Effective leadership is the key to achieving breakthroughs at Copenhagen. Yet leaders are only as effective as their toolkit. To be successful, leaders need to understand their constitu- ents, present a common and consistent narrative, and under- score the economic opportunities that challenge affords.” — Timothy E. Wirth President, United Nations Foundation; former U.S. Senator

Photo by Alex Irvin

he challenges of pursuing green increase the share of renewable energy in challenge, their own vulnerability to it, and Guiding Lights growth initiatives are great, but its primary energy supply to 15 percent by their resolve to meet it. Tthe risks of not doing so are even 2020. India plans to launch a National Solar In addition to setting national GHG greater, and opportunities to address them Mission as part of its National Action Plan emissions goals and laying the groundwork are within our grasp. And whether these on Climate Change that would increase for facilitating meeting climate change compounding gains are undertaken by its solar capacity by 2020 to 20 giga- mitigation needs in the world’s poorest government institutions, the private sector, watts—more than twice the current installed countries, leadership is needed from civil society, or local communities, visionary capacity in the United States. India plans governments to engage the private sector leaders will be needed to move from nego- to bring one-third of its land under forest in the fight against global climate change. tiation to implementation, from research to cover by 2012 and to upgrade its energy Even in the absence of an international project development, and from advocacy to efficiency standards and building codes. climate treaty or national cap-and-trade mobilization. And this leadership will require The European Union, a longtime leader on regime, public funds can be leveraged unlikely coalitions and an unprecedented climate change mitigation, has committed to engage the private sector through commitment to deliver on the promise that to reduce its GHG emissions 20 percent public–private partnerships that promote low-carbon growth holds for our future. below 1990 levels by 2020 (or 30 percent, green businesses and create employment if others pledge equivalent targets), to opportunities. increase its renewable energy use to 20 Thus far, leadership has come from all Leadership from Governments percent of its overall energy mix by 2020, levels of government. In fact, municipal Visionary leadership is needed from and to adopt a binding target to improve its and state governments have largely been world leaders in both formal and informal energy consumption efficiency by 20 per- the first movers on this front. For instance, governance channels to overcome some cent from projected 2020 levels. Norway the Berlin Energy-Saving Partnerships, a of the most contentious sticking points in will increase its target to 40 percent below collaboration between the City of Berlin the international climate negotiations. The 1990 levels in 2020 if there is an interna- and the Fortune 500 company Johnson Copenhagen Accord is a political declara- tional agreement. For its part, Japan has Controls, has since 1999 been promoting tion, and world leaders must now turn its pledged to cut its emissions by 25 percent energy savings by public buildings and has intentions into verifiable actions. They must relative to 1990 levels and to increase the reduced the city’s energy costs by roughly continue working to reach an agreement share of renewable energies to 10 percent $7.5 million annually. The City of Chicago on the unresolved issues and facilitate the of its total, primary energy supply by 2020. and the energy service provider Excelon codification of those solutions into interna- Australia has set a renewable energy have teamed up since 2000 to reduce tional law. target of 20 percent by 2020 and will peak load electricity use and advance the Outside the global framework, many invest roughly $5 billion in developing and city’s solar energy industry. Thus far, the nations (including major emerging econo- commercializing clean energy technologies. Chicago Solar Partnership has reduced

mies) have embarked independently on Although these commitments were unable the city’s CO2 emissions by roughly 1,500 developing low-carbon growth strategies. to bridge the divisions over the international tons annually and has helped Excelon avoid For example, China’s current five-year plan climate change agreement in Copenhagen, costly alternatives for delivering energy aims to reduce the energy intensity of its they do demonstrate that many nations rec- during times of peak demand. Since 2002, economy by 20 percent by 2010 and to ognize the severity of the climate change the U.S. nonprofit World Resources Institute

23 “In many African countries, there is a gap between the states’ interest in pursuing low-carbon economic growth and their capacity to develop suitable policies. In response, governments have begun investing in local research institutions and are working with civil society to think through climate-proofed growth strategies. We have a long way to go, but important first steps have been made and awareness is on the rise.” — Ernest Aryeetey Director, Africa Growth Initiative, Brookings; Director, Institute of Statistical, Social and Economic Research, University of Ghana

Photo by Alex Irvin

and Mexico City have partnered to reduce will take time, patience, and creativity. It will Copenhagen Accord resulted in the estab- traffic congestion, traffic accidents, and require augmenting capacity to predict and lishment of the Copenhagen Green Climate air pollution by retrofitting the city’s diesel plan for future climate effects if growth is to Fund to help developing countries adapt to bus fleet; by implementing the Bus Rapid be sustainable, and it will take coordinating and mitigate the effects of climate change; Transit system, which can accommodate actions across projects and sectors. but like all the proposed initiatives coming more passengers for less than one-tenth out of Copenhagen, swift action is required the cost of an equivalent light-rail system to translate this idea into action. and in half the time of a conventional bus; Multilateral Leadership The World Bank has also developed the and by promoting walking and cycling as Even well-conceived low-carbon national Climate Investment Funds—including the forms of sustainable transportation.42 growth strategies will require funding in the Clean Technology Fund and the Strategic Public policies also have an essen- world’s poorest countries to get projects Climate Fund—as an interim measure, with tial role to play in creating the enabling off the ground. And in the absence of a the dual aim of scaling up assistance to environment needed to catalyze clean global climate treaty, multilateral institutions developing countries and expanding the technology, green businesses, and forestry have been instrumental in channeling funds development community’s knowledge of practices that work for the poor. This to advance progress. These funds have climate change in the developing world. As includes everything from minimizing risk been used to address vulnerabilities, build of September 2009, twelve donor nations to liberalizing trade to assigning property capacity, and construct everything from low- had pledged roughly $6.3 billion to these rights—including those of the poor, as the carbon energy facilities to barriers against funds to enhance resilience, pioneer renew- economist Hernando de Soto has persua- the rising sea. able energy, and encourage the transfer sively argued. For example, an analysis by Thus far, the global community’s multi- of clean technologies. For example, the the World Bank concludes that removing lateral financing efforts have primarily taken Clean Technology Fund is financing energy tariff and nontariff barriers in eighteen the form of three funds created under the efficiency work and the development of major developing countries would increase auspices of the UNFCCC and managed by renewables in Turkey and wind energy in the flow of efficiency, wind, and solar tech- the Global Environment Facility (GEF): the Egypt, while the Strategic Climate Fund nologies by, respectively, 64, 23, and 14 Least Developed Country Fund, the Special is funding the Pilot Program for Climate percent. Potential inroads could be made Climate Change Fund, and the Adaptation Resilience, which will provide incentives to through a reinvigorated Doha Development Fund. The GEF has also started to fund incorporate climate risk into development Round of the negotiations for the World small-scale adaptation projects through its planning, a Forest Investment Program, and Trade Organization, which since 2001 has core account and is managing a three-year a Scaling Up Renewable Energy Program. been working to reduce or eliminate tariff pilot program for adaptation planning. The As needed monies are raised, discus- and nontariff barriers to “environmental GEF has mobilized roughly $330 million sion continues about the structure and goods and services.” for adaptation through these funds, yet governance of these funds. The developing Whether leaders are operating at the much of this funding has yet to be dis- nations, which view adaptation assistance as international, national, or local level, they bursed, and the least-developed countries compensation from polluters to which they must function with a protracted time horizon. are often disadvantaged in accessing the are entitled, insist that allocation decisions Even in the midst of a tentative global finan- money because they do not meet eligibility be made by national governments or, at a cial recovery, greening the global economy criteria or lack the capability to apply.43 The minimum, by global bodies in which they as

24 “There is a clear disconnect between our aspirations and our current capacity to address climate change across many development organizations. In most cases, we’re fighting our knowledge base, and we especially need more and deeper knowledge on strategies to tackle the impacts of a changing climate. So many, including the World Bank, are now engaged in a tremendous amount of learning. Ensuring that this knowledge is shared across organizations is an essential part of coalescing around best practice in time to meet the needs of the poorest.” — Katherine Sierra Photo by Alex Irvin Vice President for Sustainable Development, World Bank

developing countries have majority represen- practices and create networks on climate Corporate engagement in building tation. Balancing the donor countries’ desires change adaptation in communities around a green economy can take many forms for control, accountability, and supervision the world. Challenges remain to ensure along many avenues. Investing in green with the developing countries’ demands that platforms can operate at a narrow growth offers tremendous opportunities to for greater voice and control remains a bandwidth to reach those with only limited enhance the long-term sustainability of any significant challenge. For its part, the World online resources and that information is business. Activities will need to be climate- Bank–operated Pilot Program on Climate accessible on cellular telephones, which proofed to withstand the adverse effects Resilience is breaking new ground, although are increasingly available throughout the of a changing climate; moreover, they will it is far too early to gauge its success. With developing world. themselves need to be low carbon all along recipient countries in the driver’s seat, the In the end, pursuing climate-resilient the value chain to meet what will likely be World Bank is attempting to help nations growth will require a dramatic shift in the national GHG emissions caps across all build resilience and adaptation dimen- prevailing development paradigm; poverty developed countries. And in contrast to the sions into their national, fiscal, and sectoral alleviation must remain paramount, but how grueling pace of brokering climate deals planning. Recipient countries develop the it is achieved will figure more prominently at the international and national levels, the strategy, whereas the World Bank gives their than in decades past. Such an outlook, private sector has the power to act nimbly, adaptation plans budget support rather than which must be based on the precepts of innovate, shape public opinion, and bring project support. If successful, this pilot will climate justice, requires that development profitable technologies to scale now. demonstrate that budget support mecha- organizations both determine and incorpo- Occasionally, a company’s core business nisms could be effective vehicles in meeting rate a set of principles concerning environ- activity will fuel the green economy—for adaptation needs in the developing world mental sustainability and climate change example, a wind turbine factory, a solar in a manner that circumvents some of the into a new vision for development. The power provider, an energy-smart electronics more contentious issues surrounding the major development institutions must work to producer, or a plug-in car manufacturer. In governance of adaptation funds.44 mainstream this thinking into their programs other cases, the climate and employment Multilateral organizations have also and missions. Doing so will go a long way in dividends will come from the corporation’s proved to be effective aggregators of helping to create the kind of narratives that role in mobilizing governments to take knowledge. A number have developed leaders need to promote green growth. action. In either case, only cooperation Web-based databases that allow both between the private sector and other actors practitioners and policymakers to access will enable the world community to turn the spatially referenced knowledge on climate Leadership from the Private tide on climate change. change adaptation—from sector-specific Sector and Civil Society The Brookings Institution and Harvard interventions to the latest policy and scien- Although governments must take a lead University scholar Jane Nelson has tific research. For instance, the World Bank role in ushering in the era of green growth, described three challenges and opportuni- maintains the Climate Change Adaptation the fight to rejuvenate the global economy ties that are encountered by corpora- Portal and a consortium of organiza- and address the calamitous risks posed tions—and also NGOs—working to green tions maintains the Adaptation Learning by climate change can only be won with the global economy. First, and of greatest Mechanism, both of which are websites active leadership from the private sector importance, is an organization’s obliga- designed to share information on good and civil society. tion to do no harm—to ensure that the

25 “Financing climate change adaptation is only as effective as the institutions that manage and deliver the funds. Official develop- ment assistance will likely need to play a key role, along with new sources of finance, in building this institutional capacity upfront so that when larger sums start coming down the pike they will be spent well, managed in a way that meets appropriate fiduciary standards, and satisfies international oversight mechanisms, donor governments, and recipient country constituents.” — Raymond Offenheiser President, Oxfam America Photo by Alex Irvin

enterprise itself has a low-carbon footprint the spectrum. The challenge will be to farmers to multi-million-dollar calamity and that it does not perpetuate reliance make these solutions affordable within the funds, and catastrophe bonds and pools on carbon-intensive energy. New account- requisite time frame. at the level of national governments. Here, ability mechanisms have been established Many leading businesses are harness- various kinds of organizations are playing a in recent years to help everyone from ing their core corporate competencies leadership role—including global insurance corporations to concerned citizens manage and individual value chains to increase and reinsurance companies, such as Swiss this “do no harm” imperative—including a climate change resilience in the developing Re and Munich Re; a number of NGOs and wide array of carbon disclosure initiatives— countries where they operate. On water, for foundations in the developed world, such as from the Greenhouse Gas Protocol to the example, Unilever, Coca-Cola, Alcoa, Rio Oxfam and the Rockefeller Foundation; and Global Reporting Initiative to the Carbon Tinto, Shell, BP, DuPont, and PepsiCo offer many microfinance institutions, coopera- Disclosure Project—that assist in creating valuable models of comprehensive steward- tives, rural banks, and emerging market an inventory of GHG emissions and devis- ship or sustainability strategies, which aim companies in developing countries, often in ing a strategy to reduce one’s footprint. not only to manage the water footprint of partnership with multilateral development Furthermore, a number of global codes and the company’s own sourcing and manufac- banks, the United Nations, and bilateral voluntary principles focused on integrating turing operations but also to support com- agencies.46 green growth into the work of companies munity water initiatives and more systemic Others are also beginning to cash in on and NGOs have also emerged, for example, efforts to improve watershed protection green technologies. According to Clean the UN Global Compact’s “Caring for and management. And in the agricultural Edge, a clean technology market research Climate” platform. sector, such agribusiness leaders as firm, global revenues from solar photovolta- A second category of engagement is Unilever, Syngenta, DuPont, Monsanto, ics, wind power, and biofuels expanded through pure investment—particularly for Nestlé, Groupe Danone, McDonald’s, and from $75.8 billion in 2007 to $115.9 adaptation finance in the developing world Starbucks have developed comprehensive, billion in 2008. New global investments and for clean technology development and sustainable strategies along their different in energy technologies—including venture deployment. With the UNFCCC suggesting commodity value chains, including efforts to capital, project finance, public markets, and that more than 85 percent of the financial support farmers in developing countries in research and development—expanded by flows needed to support climate change their livelihoods and, increasingly, in adapt- 4.7 percent, from $148.4 billion in 2007 challenges in the developing world will ing to climate change.45 to $155.4 billion in 2008, according to the need to come from the private sector, One of the most innovative and rapidly research firm New Energy Finance. And the it will be essential to make investments growing areas of private sector engage- clean technology sector is now one of the profitable. And in the energy sector alone, ment in climate change adaptation is largest recipients of venture capital—along- the International Energy Agency has the development of insurance and other side biotechnology, software, and medical estimated that investments of $45 trillion risk-transfer financing solutions to help devices—with clean energy alone bringing will be needed worldwide up to 2050 to low-income countries, communities, and in $3.35 billion in the United States in halve global GHG emissions. Business small businesses reduce their vulner- 2008. Globally, venture capital and private undoubtedly has unparalleled resources ability to climate change. These products equity investments in clean energy totaled and know-how to innovate and create the range from microinsurance programs and $13.5 billion in 2009 alone. kind of solutions that are needed across index-based agricultural insurance for poor A third level of engagement is for

26 “Resilience is best defined as the ability to plan for, to survive, to recover from, and im- portantly, to thrive in the face of an already

changing climate. Yet building resilience isn’t Irvin Photo by Alex only a key element of climate planning. It really is a key part of development strategy going forward.” — Judith Rodin President, The Rockefeller Foundation

Photo by Steve Ladner Photography “If we’re going to survive beyond 2050, we must embrace a world of ‘we.’ Recognizing our common bond is the key to catalyzing international action organizations to figure in the broader Climate Protection, civil society coalitions to achieve climate justice.” public policy dialogue—advocating robust formed a powerful voice in Copenhagen — Mary Robinson action at the international level and pushing pressing for robust action to effectively and President, Realizing Rights: The Ethical national legislatures to pass comprehensive comprehensively meet the climate change Globalization Initiative; former President of Ireland climate change bills. Many have teamed challenge. Although the outcomes of the up within the business community through conference were less than satisfactory, the campaigns like We Can Lead, others have collaboration of these organizations has partnered with civil society through coali- helped to bring a new sense of urgency tions like the United States Climate Action to efforts to address the climate change Partnership, and still others have pursued challenge. Since Copenhagen, their alliance partnerships with local governments through has given an important impetus to keep organizations such as the Climate Group. international negotiations focused on work- From TckTckTck and 350.org to the Indian ing toward comprehensive action. Youth Climate Network and the Alliance for

27 Leadership

Can America Rise to the Challenge?

28 he awarding of the 2009 Nobel Peace Prize to U.S. president Barack TObama for his “extraordinary efforts to strengthen international diplomacy and cooperation between peoples” has shown again that the world is looking to the United States to lead on international cooperation, and on climate protection, a key dimension of this cooperation. And the early days of the Obama administration have provided some welcome signs. As a first step, the popularity holds real opportunity. Since limited, the United States played a central Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Obama became president, the approval role in the negotiations and development of issued an endangerment finding against rating of American leadership in the world the Copenhagen Accord. When President GHGs under the Clean Air Act that could has increased globally—from Bangladesh Obama arrived in Copenhagen, the negotia- lead to EPA regulation of GHGs should to Russia and from Syria to Cameroon.47 tions were fractious and seemingly headed Congress fail to enact cap-and-trade Such popularity will only help to strengthen toward collapse. The president, along with legislation in the coming months. For its American efforts to constructively engage leaders from China, India, Brazil, and South part, the House of Representatives has in international negotiations, to encourage Africa, spent thirteen hours in discus- already passed the historic, if imperfect, the major economies to reach a consensus, sions to hammer out the key issues that American Clean Energy and Security Act, and to secure greater gains for the world’s had been hindering negotiations.48 There which would cut emissions to 83 percent 1.5 billion people living on less than $1.25 were two keys to breaking the stalemate. below 2005 levels by 2050. Taken together a day who stand to lose the most from the The first was the offer of $100 billion in with the $43 billion in spending on energy adverse effects of the changing climate. For financial aid from developed countries to efficiency and renewable energy in the as the Nobel Committee stated, “Only very assist poor nations with climate adaption federal economic stimulus act passed in rarely has a person to the same extent as and mitigation; this not only eased develop- 2009, this would be the most ambitious Obama captured the world’s attention and ing countries’ apprehension but also put energy policy undertaking the nation has given its people hope for a better future.” indirect pressure on China to cooperate. ever seen. While the Senate considers its Few things that the United States can The second key was China’s willingness to version of cap-and-trade legislation, the do are more important for the international agree to a verification system under which Clean Energy Jobs and American Power negotiation process than passing robust, all countries report their domestic actions Act, there is a growing consensus among comprehensive clean energy legislation as taken to curb climate change, a principal American politicians, businesses, and the soon as possible—both to heighten U.S. demand of industrial countries and a major public at large that climate change is a real credibility in the international negotiation win for Obama’s arsenal when trying to problem—even if the debate is only begin- process and to reduce GHG emissions. convince Congress to pass cap-and-trade ning on how much and at what cost the However, despite widespread criticism that legislation in the coming months. The government should act. without legislation in Congress, bargaining agreement was then presented on a take- Overseas, the American president’s power in Copenhagen would be severely it-or-leave-it basis to the more than 190

29 “Americans have learned from the Europeans that the transformation of the economy from a high-carbon, fossil fuel base to a clean technology, low-carbon base, is one of opportunity. It’s one of optimism. It’s one that could create jobs. It’s one that could create growth.” — John Podesta President and Chief Executive Officer, Center for American Progress

Photo by Alex Irvin

the Major Economies Forum on Energy and Climate. Progress was already made at the September 2009 G-20 summit in Pittsburgh, where leaders endorsed phasing out fossil fuel subsidies over the medium term, which is estimated to reduce GHG emissions by 10 percent by 2050. In addition, previous meetings of the major economies have yielded positive signs for technology transfer and emissions targets. The proposals endorsed in these smaller, more manageable forums have facilitated momentum in formal governance channels but still require major effort if they are to be translated into a legally binding climate change treaty. Undeniably, the United States, as one of the world’s two largest GHG emitters, and the largest per capita emitter among major countries, must take a leading a role in climate change solutions—and deliver on its promises. It emits approximately 23 tons

of CO2 per capita and ranks second in total GHG emissions only to China, which for its

part emits about 6 tons of CO2 per capita. nations in attendance, and the accord was decisionmaking power to smaller groups As a historic and continuing contributor to “noted” in the final hours of the conference highlights the inadequacies of the current climate change, the United States has an (only six countries registered dissent). UN system and underlines the need for obligation to play a leading role in imple- The United States played a key informal channels of global governance menting domestic remedies and shepherd- role in brokering the declaration at the to make climate change negotiations a ing multilateral solutions—especially for Copenhagen UNFCCC conference, priority. Many such opportunities already the world’s poor. America’s global position however imperfect it may be. The so- exist through, for example, the U.S.- requires these actions as much as its stra- called BASIC group of countries—Brazil, China Strategic and Economic Dialogue, tegic economic and security interests. South Africa, India, and China—also were the U.S.-Mexico Bilateral Framework instrumental in the international negotia- on Clean Energy and Climate Change, tions process, more so than at any previ- the Asia-Pacific Partnership on Clean ous UN climate conference. The shift in Development and Climate, the G-20, and

30 “If the international climate change negotiations in Copenhagen are successful and we get on a path to stabilize our climate at 450 parts per million, we will have created a staggering energy consumer’s benefit; global energy prices will be 18 percent lower if Copenhagen is successful—that’s $750 billion per year in consumer savings. The U.S. share of that is over $150 billion a year. That’s the dividend for Americans if we’re successful in Copenhagen.” — Hal Harvey Chief Executive Officer, ClimateWorks Foundation

Photo by Alex Irvin

31 A Bright Tomorrow

Here Comes the Sun

32 “I rarely have met a single young person who doesn’t really care about their environment or alleviating poverty. I think we can be proud of the next generation and encourage them to make a difference.” — Richard C. Blum Founder, Blum Center for Developing Economies; Chairman and President, Blum Capital Partners, LP

Photo by Alex Irvin

he global financial and economic “For millions of people from Detroit No single person, organization, or crisis has shown that the future is to Delhi these are the worst of times. country can meet these challenges alone. Tunpredictable and that the nations Families have lost jobs, homes, health care Only by working together on multiple fronts, and people of the world are interconnected and even the prospect of their next meal. compromising where compromise was once in ways we do not always perceive—and With so much at stake, governments must unthinkable, and seeing opportunities in the challenge of climate change reinforces be strategic in their choices. We must not moments of crisis can we deliver on the these lessons and reveals the need for let the urgent undermine the essential. promise that sustainable, green growth timely, worldwide coordination efforts. This Investing in the green economy is not an holds for our economies, our planet, and lesson is especially important to remember optional expense. It is a smart investment our children. as we try to cope with the uncertainties for a more equitable, prosperous future.” 49 of climate change and its different effects on the developed and developing worlds. Thus, though people in Munich, Sydney, or Chicago may not feel the direct impact of climate change for three or four decades, people in Dhaka, Niamey, and San Salvador may be suffering its adverse effects in the coming decade. Our morality begs us to act, as does our long-term economic self-interest. By investing in green sectors of the economy, we can create employment opportunities to stimulate needed growth and simultaneously ensure the sustain- ability of the global economy. We can push forward with the essential building blocks of an international climate change agree- ment to provide needed price signals to spur innovation and investment. We can promote clean energy technologies and sound forestry that involve the poor in our urgent efforts to abate GHG emissions in a way that improves livelihoods and reduces climate vulnerability. For as former vice president Al Gore and UN secretary- general Ban Ki-moon remind us,

33 34 Participants

Co-Chairs Michael Froman, Deputy Assistant to the Katherine Sierra, Vice President for Sustainable Richard C. Blum, Founder, Blum Center for President and Deputy National Security Adviser Development, World Bank Developing Economies; Chairman and President, for International Economic Affairs, National Smita Singh, Director, Global Development Blum Capital Partners, LP Security Council and National Economic Program, The William and Flora Hewlett Foundation Council, Executive Office of the President of Kemal Dervis¸, Vice President and Director, the United States Erica Stone, President, American Himalayan Global Economy and Development, Brookings Foundation Hal Harvey, Chief Executive Officer, Strobe Talbott, President, Brookings ClimateWorks Foundation Mark Suzman, Director of Policy and Advocacy, Global Development Program, Bill & Melinda Thomas Heller, Lewis Talbot and Nadine Hearn Gates Foundation Shelton Professor of International Legal Studies, Humayun Tai, Principal, McKinsey & Company Honorary Co-Chairs Stanford University Law School Mo Ibrahim, Chairman, Mo Ibrahim Foundation Victoria Tauli-Corpuz, Founder and Executive Walter Isaacson, President and Chief Executive Director, Tebtebba Foundation; Chairperson, Officer, Aspen Institute Thomas Kalil, Deputy Director for Policy, Office United Nations Permanent Forum on Mary Robinson, President, Realizing Rights: of Science and Technology Policy, Executive Indigenous Issues Office of the President of the United States The Ethical Globalization Initiative; former Mark Tercek, President and Chief Executive President of Ireland Karen Kornbluh, Visiting Fellow, Center for Officer, The Nature Conservancy American Progress Laura Tyson, S. K. and Angela Chan Professor Kenneth Lieberthal, Senior Fellow and Director, of Global Management, Haas School of Participants John L. Thornton China Center, Brookings Business, University of California, Berkeley Meg McDonald, President, Alcoa Foundation Madeleine Albright, Chair, Albright Stonebridge Timothy E. Wirth, President, United Nations Group; former U.S. Secretary of State Rakesh Mohan, Distinguished Consulting Foundation; former U.S. Senator Professor, Stanford Center for International Paul Alivisatos, Interim Laboratory Director, Development, Stanford University; former Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory Deputy Governor of the Reserve Bank of India William Antholis, Managing Director, Brookings Adele Morris, Fellow and Policy Director, Special Guests Ernest Aryeetey, Senior Fellow and Director, Climate and Energy Economics, Brookings David Bonderman, Founding Partner, Africa Growth Initiative, Brookings; Director, Jane Nelson, Senior Fellow and Director, TPG Capital Institute of Statistical, Social, and Economic Corporate Social Responsibility Initiative, Peggy Clark, Managing Director, Realizing Research, University of Ghana Harvard Kennedy School; Nonresident Senior Rights: The Ethical Globalization Initiative Zoë Baird, President, Markle Foundation Fellow, Brookings George Frampton, Senior of Counsel, Susan Bell, Vice President and Senior Fellow Raymond Offenheiser, President, Oxfam Covington & Burling LLP for Energy and Climate, The William and Flora America Maryanne McCormick, Interim Executive Hewlett Foundation Cem Özdemir, Chairman of the German Green Director, Blum Center for Developing Economies Sandra Brown, Chief Scientist and Director, Party, Alliance ’90 / The Greens Heather Simpson, Adviser to the Administrator, Ecosystem Services Unit, Winrock International John Podesta, President and Chief Executive United Nations Development Program Helen Clark, Administrator, United Nations Officer, Center for American Progress Stefaan Verhulst, Chief of Research, Development Program; former Prime Minister of Glenn Prickett, Senior Vice President, Markle Foundation New Zealand Conservation International Jane Wales, Vice President, Philanthropy and Elliot Diringer, Vice President, International Judith Rodin, President, The Rockefeller Society, Aspen Institute Strategies, Pew Center on Global Climate Foundation Change Carlos Manuel Rodríguez, Vice President for Christopher Edley Jr., Dean and Professor Conservation Policy, Conservation International; of Law, Berkeley Law School, University of former Minister of Environment and Energy of Associate Director California, Berkeley Costa Rica Abigail Jones, Research Analyst, Global Mohamed El-Ashry, Senior Fellow, United Economy and Development, Brookings Andrew Rudd, Trustee, Blum Center for Nations Foundation Developing Economies Maggie L. Fox, President and Chief Executive S. Shankar Sastry, Dean, College of Officer, Alliance for Climate Protection Engineering, University of California, Berkeley

Note: The titles and affiliations of the participants are as of August 2009.

35 Endnotes

1. International Labor Organization, World of 11. Edward B. Barbier, Rethinking the Eco- 22. Global Climate Network, “Creating Work Report 2009: The Global Jobs Crisis nomic Recovery: A Global Green New Opportunity: Low-Carbon Jobs in an and Beyond (Geneva, 2009). Deal, Report prepared for Economics Interconnected World—Interim Findings,” and Trade Branch, Division of Technology, Discussion Paper 3 (London, 2009). 2. See World Bank News and Broadcast, Industry, and Economics, United Nations 23. Robert Pollin, James Heintz, and Heidi “Workers’ Remittances Fall Less Than Environment Program (www.unep.org/ Garrett-Peltier, “The Economic Benefits Expected in 2009, but 2010 Recovery greeneconomy/portals/30/docs/GGND- of Investing in Clean Energy: How the Likely to Be Shallow,” November 18, 2009. Report-April2009.pdf [February 2010]). Economic Stimulus Program and New 3. World Bank, Global Monitoring Report 12. These data are from the IMF Data Mapper Legislation Can Boost U.S. Economic 2009 (Washington, 2009) (http://web. (www.imf.org/external/datamapper/index. Growth and Employment,” Center for worldbank.org/WBSITE/EXTERNAL/EXT- php [accessed October 2009]). American Progress, June 2009. DEC/EXTGLOBALMONITOR/EXTGLOM ONREP2009/0,,menuPK:5924413~page 13. World Bank, Global Monitoring Report 24. U.S. Energy Information Administration, PK:64168427~piPK:64168435~theSite 2009: A Development Emergency International Energy Outlook 2009 PK:5924405,00.html [February 2010]). (Washington, 2009). (Washington: U.S. Government Printing Office, 2009). 4. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate 14. Robert Zoellick, “The World Bank Group Change, Fourth Assessment Report: beyond the Crisis,” address at World 25. Thomas Friedman, “Drilling in Afghanistan,” Climate Change 2007—The Physical Bank–International Monetary Fund Annual New York Times, July 30, 2008 Science Basis (http://ipcc-wg1.ucar.edu/ Meetings, Istanbul, October 6, 2009 (www.nytimes.com/2008/07/30/opinion/ wg1/wg1-report.html [February 2010]). (http://go.worldbank.org/RK4MV3K5R0 30friedman.html [February 2010]). Also see U.S. Climate Change Science [accessed October 2009]). 26. Barack Obama, “State of the Union Address” Program and the Subcommittee on Global 15. Pew Center for Global Climate Change, (www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/ Change Research, Abrupt Climate Change, “Climate Change 101: International Action,” remarks-president-state-union-address P. U. Clark and A. J. Weaver (coordinating in Climate Change 101: Understanding [January 2010]). lead authors) (Reston, Va.: U.S. Geological and Responding to Global Climate Change Survey, 2008); Stefan Rahmstorf, “A 27. Diana Farrell and Jaana Remes, “Promoting (Washington: Pew Center for Global Semi-Empirical Approach to Projecting Energy Efficiency in the Developing World,” Climate Change, 2009) (http://www. Future Sea-Level Rise,” Science 315, no. McKinsey Quarterly, February 2009. pewclimate.org/docUploads/Climate101- 5810 (January 19, 2007): 368–70; and E. Complete-Jan09.pdf [February 2010]). 28. International Energy Agency, “How the J. Rohling, K. Grant, Ch. Hemleben, M. Energy Sector Can Deliver on a Climate Siddall, B. A. A. Hoogakker, M. Bolshaw, 16. Robert Mendelsohn, “Development in the Agreement in Copenhagen,” October 2009 and M. Kucera, “High Rates of Sea-Level Balance: Agriculture and Water,” in Climate (www.iea.org/weo/docs/weo2009/climate_ Rise during the Last Interglacial Period,” Change and Global Poverty: A Billion Lives change_excerpt.pdf [February 2010]). Nature Geoscience 1 (2008): 38–42. in the Balance? ed. Lael Brainard, Abigail Jones, and Nigel Purvis (Brookings, 2009). 29. Compulsory licenses, as established in the 5. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate World Trade Organization’s Agreement on Change, Fourth Assessment Report. 17. William Cline, Global Warming and Agricul- Trade-Related Aspects of Intellectual Prop- ture: Impact Estimates by Country (Wash- 6. Frank Newport, “Americans: Economy Takes erty Rights, are nonvoluntary licenses that ington: Peterson Institute for International Precedence over Environment,” Gallup Poll, are granted by an administrative or judicial Economics, 2007). March 19, 2009. authority to a third party that can then use 18. Kemal Dervis¸, “The Climate Change the patented invention without the consent 7. Pew Research Center for the People and Challenge,” United Nations University of the patent owner. the Press, “Public’s Priorities for 2010: World Institute for Development Economics Economy, Jobs, Terrorism,” January 25, 2010. 30. Project Catalyst, “Limiting Atmospheric Research Annual Lecture, March 11, 2008 CO2e to 450 PPM: The Mitigation Chal- 8. Nick Robins and Robert Clover, “A Climate (http://www.wider.unu.edu/publications/ lenge,” ClimateWorks Foundation, San for Recovery: The Colour of Stimulus Goes annual-lectures/en_GB/AL11/_files/ Francisco, 2009. Green,” HSBC Global Research, February 79636501396062434/default/annual- 16, 2009. lecture-11-online.pdf [February 2010]). 31. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change predicts reducing carbon emis- 9. International Labor Organization, Green 19. Ibid. sions from deforestation will be more costly Policies and Jobs: A Double Dividend? 20. United Nations Environment Program, and estimates that at least 50 percent of (Geneva, 2009). “Global Green New Deal: An Update for the emissions from deforestation could be 10. Ban Ki-moon and Al Gore, “Green Growth G20 Pittsburgh Summit,” September 2009. mitigated for less than $100 per ton of Is Essential to Any Stimulus,” Financial CO2 equivalent. Intergovernmental Panel 21. International Labor Organization, Green Times, February 16, 2009. on Climate Change, Fourth Assessment Policies and Jobs. Report. The World Bank believes the oppor-

36 tunity cost of forest conservation is under 41. For more information, see the Climate, $5 per ton of CO2 equivalent in several Community & Biodiversity Alliance major developing countries. K. Chomitz, (www.climate-standards.org/index.html At Loggerheads? Agricultural Expansion, [October 2009]). Poverty Reduction, and Environment in 42. Climate Group, “Public-Private Partner- the Tropical Forests (Washington: World ships: Local Initiatives 2007” (http://www. Bank, 2007). The variation is attributable to unep.org/civil_society/GCSF/11_ppp_ technical differences in underlying modeling booklet.pdf [February 2010]). assumptions. 43. New Partnership for Africa’s Development, 32. Commission on Climate and Tropical “Financial Resources and Investment for Forests, “Protecting the Climate Forests: Climate Change,” paper prepared for Why Reducing Tropical Deforestation is Special Session of the Africa Partnership in America’s Vital National Interest,” Forum on Climate Change, Addis Ababa, October 2009. September 3, 2009. 33. K. Hamilton et al., Forging a Frontier: State 44. For more information, see World Bank, of the Voluntary Carbon Markets 2008 “Climate Change: Financing—What We Do” (Washington: Ecosystem Marketplace and (http://beta.worldbank.org/climatechange/ New Carbon Finance, 2008); K. Capoor financing [February 2010]). and P. Ambrosi, State and Trends of the Carbon Market 2008 (Washington: World 45. Jane Nelson, “Corporate Action on Climate Bank, 2008). Change Adaptation and Development: Mobilizing New Business Partnerships 34. G. E. Kinderman, M. Obersteiner, E. to Build Climate Change Resilience in Rametsteiner, and I. McCallum, “Predicting Developing Countries and Communities,” the Deforestation Trend under Different in Climate Change and Global Poverty ed. Carbon Prices,” Carbon Balance and Brainard, Jones, and Purvis. Management 1, no. 15 (2006): 1–17. 46. Ibid. 35. Forest conservation also provides key benefits beyond climate at the global 47. Frank Newport, “Obama’s Nobel Prize: level, including stemming the alarming Public Opinion in Context,” Gallup Poll, and irreversible biodiversity loss, with October 9, 2009. 70 percent of known terrestrial species living in forests, mostly in the tropics. 48. Bryan Walsh, “Lessons from the Copenhagen Climate Talks,” Time, December 21, 2009 36. Sandra Brown and Timothy Pearson, “Forests (www.time.com/time/specials/packages/ and Carbon Markets,” Brookings Blum article/0,28804,1929071_1929070_ Roundtable Policy Brief, September 2009. 1949054,00.html [February 2010]). 37. United Nations Framework Convention on 49. Ban Ki-moon and Al Gore, “Green Growth Climate Change, Copenhagen Accord, Is Essential to Any Stimulus,” Financial Copenhagen, December 2009. Times, February 17, 2009 (www.un.org/ sg/articleFull.asp?TID=92&Type=Op-Ed 38. Council on Foreign Relations, “Q&A with [February 2010]). Michael Levi on the Copenhagen Confer- ence” (www.foreignaffairs.com/discussions/ interviews/qa-with-michael-levi-on-the- copenhagen-conference [October 2009]). 39. For more information, see the Noel Kempff Mercado Climate Action Project (www. noelkempff.com/English/Welcome.htm [October 2009]). 40. Bill Stanley and Nicole Virgilio, “Noel Kempff Case Study: Capturing Carbon Finance,” prepared for Connecting Amazon Protected Areas and Indigenous Lands to REDD Frameworks, Stanford University, Published in March 2010. Stanford, Calif., February 11–12, 2009. Design/Production: MillerCox Design, Inc.

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