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Asia and Africa in the Global Economy

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Asia and Africa in the Global Economy The United Nations University is an organ of the United Nations estab- lished by the General Assembly in 1972 to be an international community of scholars engaged in research, advancedtraining,andthedissemination of knowledge related to the pressing global problems of human survi- val, development, and welfare. Its activities focus mainly on the areas of peace and governance, environment and sustainable development, and science and technology in relation to human welfare. The University oper- ates through a worldwide network of research and postgraduate training centres, with its planning and coordinating headquarters in Tokyo. The United Nations University Press, the publishing division of the UNU, publishes scholarly and policy-oriented books and periodicals in areas related to the University’s research. Asia and Africa Asia and Africa in the Global Economy Edited by Ernest Aryeetey, Julius Court, Machiko Nissanke, and Beatrice Weder United Nations a University Press TOKYO u NEW YORK u PARIS ( The United Nations University, 2003 The views expressed in this publication are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the United Nations University. United Nations University Press The United Nations University, 53-70, Jingumae 5-chome, Shibuya-ku, Tokyo, 150-8925, Japan Tel: þ81-3-3499-2811 Fax: þ81-3-3406-7345 E-mail: [email protected] general enquiries: [email protected] http://www.unu.edu United Nations University Office in North America 2 United Nations Plaza, Room DC2-2062, New York, NY 10017, USA Tel: þ1-212-963-6387 Fax: þ1-212-371-9454 E-mail: [email protected] United Nations University Press is the publishing division of the United Nations University. Cover design by Joyce C. Weston Printed in Hong Kong UNUP-1089 ISBN 92-808-1089-8 Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Asia and Africa in the global economy / edited by Ernest Aryeetey . [et al.]. — 1st American ed. p. cm. Revised papers presented at the International Conference ‘‘Asia and Africa on the Global Economy’’, Tokyo, August 1998. Includes bibliographical references and index. ISBN 92-808-1089-8 (pbk.) 1. Asia, Southeastern—Commercial policy—Congresses. 2. Africa, Sub-Saharan—Commercial policy—Congresses. 3. Asia, Southeastern— Economic policy—Congresses. 4. Africa, Sub-Saharan—Economic policy— Congresses. 5. Globalization—Congresses. I. Aryeetey, Ernest, 1955– II. International Conference ‘‘Asia and Africa in the Global Economy’’ (1998 : Tokyo, Japan) HF1591.A84 2003 337 .59—dc22 2003018266 Contents ListofTablesandFigures ............................................ vii 1 Introduction........................................................ 1 2 The Dynamics of Globalization: Eight Sceptical Theses . 23 Laurence Harris 3 Economic Policies and External Performance in Southeast Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa . ................................ 40 Ernest Aryeetey and Machiko Nissanke 4 GovernmentsandExternalPerformanceinAfrica.............. 88 Beatrice Weder 5 Local Entrepreneurship in Southeast Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa: Networks and Linkages to the Global Economy . 106 Deborah Bra¨utigam 6 Resource Exports and Resource Processing for Export in Southeast Asia . ................................................. 128 Jomo Sundaram and Michael Rock v vi CONTENTS 7 Primary Exports and Primary Processing for Export in Sub-SaharanAfrica................................................ 175 William Lyakurwa 8 Export-Oriented Industrialisation and Foreign Direct InvestmentintheASEANCountries ............................ 208 Thee Kian Wie 9 Export-Oriented Industrialisation and Foreign Direct InvestmentinAfrica............................................... 246 Charles Soludo 10 Management of Financial Flows in Southeast Asia . ........... 282 Pakorn Vichyanond 11 GlobalizationofAfricanFinancialMarkets...................... 318 Lemma Senbet 12 Aid and Development: What Can Africa Learn from the Macroeconomics of Foreign Aid in Some Southeast Asian Economies? ........................................................ 346 Haider Khan 13 Foreign Aid, Debt, and Development in Sub-Saharan Africa: ExperiencesandChallenges ...................................... 369 Sam Wangwe 14 From Recovery to Accelerated Development: Some Key IssuesforTwenty-First-CenturyAfrica........................... 385 Delphin Rwegasira Acronyms.............................................................. 400 Contributors........................................................... 403 Index................................................................... 405 List of Tables and Figures Tables Table 1.1 Growth in GDP per Capita % per Annum for 1961– 1996 ..................................................... 2 Table 3.1 ASEAN Industrialisation in Comparative Perspective.............................................. 48 Table3.2 StructureofMerchandiseExports..................... 49 Table 3.3 Integration with the Global Economy. ........... 51 Table3.4 PrivateCapitalFlowsin1990and1995............... 54 Table 3.5 Ratio of FDI Inflows to the Gross Domestic Capital Formation,1971–1993.................................. 78 Table 4.1 Export Performance and Institutional Quality. 94 Table 4.2 African Export Performance and Institutional Quality.................................................. 98 Table 4.3 Country Distribution Ratings on ‘‘Theft and Crime asa BusinessObstacle’’................................ 100 Table 4.4 Explaining Security of Property Rights in Africa. 101 Table 6.1 Malaysia: Gross Domestic Product by Sector, 1960– 1995(%)................................................ 133 Table 6.2 Malaysia: Export Structure, 1960–1994 (%) . 133 Table 6.3 Malaysia: Leading Manufactured Exports, 1970– 1993 ..................................................... 142 Table 6.4 Malaysia: Export Growth of Selected Resource- BasedManufactures,1986–1995........................ 144 vii viii LIST OF TABLES AND FIGURES Table 6.5 Thailand: Changes in Production Structure, 1960– 1993...................................................... 145 Table6.6 Thailand:StructureofExports,1981–1993 ........... 146 Table 6.7 Thailand: Leading Manufactured Exports, 1970– 1995...................................................... 152 Table 6.8 Thailand: Export Growth of Selected Resource- BasedManufactures,1986–1995....................... 153 Table 6.9 Indonesia: Gross Domestic Product by Sector, 1965– 1990...................................................... 154 Table 6.10 Indonesia: Major Manufactured Exports, 1980– 1993...................................................... 155 Table 6.11 Southeast Asian HPAEs: Different Types of Diversification .......................................... 163 Table7.1 MerchandiseExportstotheWorld.................... 178 Table 7.2 Sub-Saharan African Exports by Category as a RatiotoTotalWorldExports.......................... 181 Table 7.3 Share of Primary Commodities in All Merchandise TradeValues............................................ 182 Table 7.4 Share of Three Leading Commodities in Total Exports.................................................. 184 Table 7.5 Average Share of Manufactured Exports in Total Exports.................................................. 187 Table 7.6 Non-Traditional Exports in A Sample of Developing Countries. ....................................... 188 Table 7.7 An Empirical Model of Agricultural Raw Materials: Exports in Sub-Saharan Africa . .................. 192 Table 7.8 An Empirical Model of Fuel Exports in Sub-Saharan Africa.................................................... 193 Table 7.9 An Empirical Model of Minerals, Ores, and Metals Exports in Sub-Saharan Africa . .................. 194 Table 7.10 An Empirical Model of Manufactured Exports in Sub-SaharanAfrica..................................... 199 Table 8.1 Industrial Development in the ASEAN Countries, 1980–2000 . ....................................... 219 Table 8.2 Composition of the Manufacturing Industries in the ASEAN Countries by Level of Technology, 1980– 1995...................................................... 222 Table 8.3 Investment Composition in the ASEAN Countries, 1970–1999 . ....................................... 224 Table 8.4 Merchandise Exports of the ASEAN Countries, 1980–2000 . ....................................... 225 Table 8.5 FDI In- and Outflows by Host Region and Economy, 1989–2000 . ................................ 231 LIST OF TABLES AND FIGURES ix Table 8.6 Approved FDI in Indonesia by Sector, 1996–2002 . 232 Table 8.7 FDI In- and Outflows as a Percentage of Gross Fixed Capital Formation in East Asia, 1995–1999. 233 Table 9.1 Population of SSA in Five Policy Environments. 258 Table 9A Appendix Table: Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) Inflows: Africa Compared to the Rest of the World. 277 Table 10.1 Key Macroeconomic Data of Southeast Asian Countries, 1991–1996. ................................ 284 Table10.2 ImportantEconomicStatistics......................... 286 Table 10.3 External Debt Outstanding (Billions of U.S. Dollars) ................................................. 290 Table 10.4 Net Capital Flows (Billions of U.S. Dollars) . 292 Table10.5 NetCapitalFlows(PercentageofGDP).............. 294 Table 10.6 Thailand’s Net Flows of Foreign Direct Investment ClassifiedbySectors.................................... 297 Table 11.1 Capital Market Development and Economic Growth.................................................. 320 Table 11.2 Expected Returns, Volatility, and Correlations for African Countries....................................... 328 Table11.3
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