Juvenile Correctional Population Projections and Update on Recent Trends
Prepared for Senate Finance Committee 82nd Legislative Session March 2, 2011 Juvenile Correctional Population Projections January 2011
• January 2011 projections are an update to June 2010 projections and are based on individual data through the end of fiscal year 2010. June projections are preliminary projections used by agencies to draft legislative appropriations requests and by the LBB to draft recommendations for the bill as introduced.
• Projections are based on current laws, statutes, policies, and practices. Major shifts to current laws, statutes, policies, or practices will affect LBB projections.
• In general, the LBB simulation model tracks offender movement into, through and out of various systems. Major changes to the policies or practices in system flows will affect LBB projections.
• The juvenile projections have incorporated Senate Bill 103, TYC’s new classification system, and the diversion initiative funded by the 81st Legislature.
Legislative Budget Board March 2, 2011 Page 2 TYC End-of-Month Residential Population and Capacity January 2011 Projections
6,000 ACTUAL PROJECTED 5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Fiscal Year TYC Population TYC State-Funded Facility Capacity
TYC PROJECTED POPULATION FISCAL RESIDENTIAL STATE-FUNDED COMPARED YEAR POPULATION CAPACITY1 TO STATE-FUNDED CAPACITY (END-OF-YEAR) NUMBER PERCENT 2011 1,689 2,118 (429) -20.2% 2012 1,706 2,118 (412) -19.5% 2013 1,694 2,118 (424) -20.0% 2014 1,700 2,118 (418) -19.7% 2015 1,700 2,118 (418) -19.7% 2016 1,672 2,118 (446) -21.1% Data Source: Legislative Budget Board, Texas Youth Commission 1 Appropriations for TYC were based on a state-funded facility capacity of 2,118 beds for fiscal year 2011. TYC also receives funding to contract for 200 beds in fiscal year 2011 in addition to state-funded facility capacity. As of December 1, 2010, TYC’s total operating capacity was 2,649 beds.
Legislative Budget Board March 2, 2011 Page 3 Key Factors Impacting Projections: TYC Admissions
4,000 3,462
2,994 3,000
2,169 2,089 2,000
Admissions 1,418
1,000
0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Fiscal Year
Senate Bill 103 Community Corrections Implemented Diversion Program at the end of FY 2007 Implemented in FY 2010
Data Source: Texas Youth Commission
Legislative Budget Board March 2, 2011 Page 4 Key Factors Impacting Projections: Average Length of Stay of TYC Releases
20.0 17.9 17.3
14.9 15.1 15.0 13.9 in Months Stay
of 10.0
5.0 Average Length Average
0.0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Fiscal Year
Data Source: Texas Youth Commission
Legislative Budget Board March 2, 2011 Page 5 TYC Operating Capacity and Utilization
December 31, 2010 Institution Population Capacity Difference Utilization Rate McLennan County I 96 288 192 33% Ron Jackson I 127 320 193 40% McLennan County II 179 304 125 59% Corsicana Residential Treatment Center 114 187 73 61% Crockett State School 130 208 78 63% Al Price 136 216 80 63% Evins Regional Juvenile Center 120 176 56 68% Ron Jackson II 75 108 33 69% Gainesville State School 229 304 75 75% Giddings State School 254 320 66 79% Total Institutions 1,460 2,431 971 60%
Total TYC-Operated Halfway Houses 162 218 56 74% Total Contract Care 81 125 44 65% Total TYC Residential Facilities 1,703 2,774 1,071 61%
Data Source: Texas Youth Commission
Legislative Budget Board March 2, 2011 Page 6 Juvenile Probation End-of-Month Supervision Populations January 2011 Projections
END-OF-MONTH YEARLY AVERAGE
ACTUAL PROJECTED
40,000
30,000
20,000
Populations 10,000
0 Juvenile Probation Supervision 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Fiscal Year Adjudicated Probation Deferred Prosecution Supervision Prior to Disposition Total Supervision
END-OF-MONTH YEARLY AVERAGE FISCAL SUPERVISION ADJUDICATED DEFERRED TOTAL YEAR PRIOR TO PROBATION PROSECUTION SUPERVISION DISPOSITION 2011 18,747 9,435 8,304 36,485 2012 17,628 9,342 8,291 35,260 2013 18,364 9,459 8,379 36,203 2014 18,620 9,573 8,468 36,661 2015 18,988 9,513 8,557 37,058 2016 18,487 9,394 8,645 36,526 Data Source: Legislative Budget Board, Texas Juvenile Probation Commission
Legislative Budget Board March 2, 2011 Page 7 Key Factors Impacting Populations: Supervision Admissions
35,000
30,000
25,000
20,000
15,000 Admissions
10,000
5,000
0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Fiscal Year
Adjudicated Probation Deferred Prosecution Supervision Prior to Disposition
Data Source: Texas Juvenile Probation Commission
Legislative Budget Board March 2, 2011 Page 8 Key Factors Impacting Populations: Average Length of Stay of Supervision Releases
14.0
12.0
10.0 in Months
8.0
6.0
4.0
2.0 Average Average Supervision Length
0.0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Fiscal Year
Adjudicated Probation Deferred Prosecution Supervision Prior to Disposition
Data Source: Texas Juvenile Probation Commission
Legislative Budget Board March 2, 2011 Page 9