medRxiv preprint doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.06.23.20138065; this version posted October 27, 2020. The copyright holder for this preprint (which was not certified by peer review) is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. It is made available under a CC-BY 4.0 International license . Quantifying epidemiological drivers of gambiense human African Trypanosomiasis across the Democratic Republic of Congo Ronald E Crump1,2,3Y*, Ching-I Huang1,2Y, Ed Knock1,4, Simon E F Spencer1,4, Paul Brown1,2, Erick Mwamba Miaka5, Chansy Shampa5, Matt J Keeling1,2,3, Kat S Rock1,2 1 Zeeman Institute for System Biology and Infectious Disease Epidemiology Research, The University of Warwick, Coventry, U.K. 2 Mathematics Institute, The University of Warwick, Coventry, U.K. 3 The School of Life Sciences, The University of Warwick, Coventry, U.K. 4 The Department of Statistics, The University of Warwick, Coventry, U.K. 5 Programme National de Lutte contre la Trypanosomiase Humaine Africaine (PNLTHA), Kinshasa, D.R.C. YThese authors contributed equally to this work. *
[email protected] Abstract Gambiense human African trypanosomiasis (gHAT) is a virulent disease declining in burden but still endemic in West and Central Africa. Although it is targeted for elimination of transmission by 2030, there remain numerous questions about the drivers of infection and how these vary geographically. In this study we focus on the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), which accounted for 84% of the global case burden in 2016, to explore changes in transmission across the country and elucidate factors which may have contributed to the persistence of disease or success of interventions in different regions.