African Conflict Prevention Programme (ACPP) –Pretoria

ACPP Daily Briefings

Week 13

The ACPP Daily Briefings are held weekday mornings in the ACPP Pretoria’s Wednesday, 11 April 2012 Situation Room and the Briefing Notes are the minutes of this meeting during which each regional expert of the Programme reports on the latest human security developments in his/her region, followed by CONTENTS general discussions around the table. An intern then compiles a summary of the Southern Africa meeting, which is reviewed by the respective researchers, and a senior researcher edits • : President Banda Starts Tough Amidst the report and provides quality control before Crucial Challenges Ahead returning it to the intern to prepare it for dispatch to the mailing list to which you have subscribed. West Africa

ACPP-Pretoria research team • Mali: The difficult process of return to democratic rule Dr Issaka K. Souaré (N. Africa) Dr David Zounmenou (W. Africa) Mr Andrew Atta-Assamoah (E. Africa & the Horn) Ms Dimpho Motsamai (S. Africa) Dr Gwinyayi A. Dzinesa (S. Africa) Ms Refiloe Joala (Intern) Ms Naomi Kok (Intern)

Today’s Briefings Compilation Ms Refiloe Joala

Editor Mr Andrew Atta-Assamoah

Summary of Briefings

Southern Africa:

Malawi: President Banda Starts Tough Amidst Crucial Challenges Ahead

Malawi’s new President, Ms , has taken some bold steps in her first week as President. She started by firing Inspector General of Police Peter Mukhito, who was appointed by the late President Bingu wa Mutharika two years ago. Inspector General Mukhito was accused of instilling a climate of fear in Malawians including arbitrary arrests and the shooting of 19 people during anti-government protests last year. President Banda has reportedly also fired the Information Minister Patricia Kaliati who peddled falsehood that former President Mutharika was still alive days after his actual death, and Perks Ligoya, the reserve bank governor who pursued the rigid exchange rate policy that has been cited as a cause of Malawi’s current economic crisis. She has filled the critical posts with Moses Kunkuyu, a progressive parliamentarian who broke from the DDP to press for reforms, and Mary Nkosi, who becomes the first woman to hold the post of reserve bank governor.

The newly inaugurated President faces two major internal challenges in her efforts to address the country’s political and economic calamity. The first hurdle is winning over enough members of parliament (MPs) so that parliament will not block her efforts to govern, especially after she was removed from the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) for refusing to support the late President Mutharika's move to groom his younger brother, Professor , as the successor to the presidency.

President Banda has swiftly demonstrated her resolve to tackle the second major challenge, which is to win back donor confidence and support for Malawi's suffocating economy. The country’s relations with foreign donors have been strained by accusations of the late President Mutharika being authoritarian and responsible for human rights abuses. President Banda, who has vowed to reconcile with ’s external donors, yesterday asked Britain and the United States (US) to resume funding as part of her moves to heal breaches created by the late president Mutharika. She subsequently said London will send a new high commissioner to restore relations after a tit-for-tat expulsion of top diplomats last year. Meanwhile, US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said discussions on the suspended $350 million Millennium Challenge Corporation funding would resume soon. President Banda will also engage the IMF to ensure resumption of the Bretton Woods Institution programme for Malawi. It remains to be seen whether President Banda will be careful in her efforts to mend bridges with the West in order not to be seen as an unconditional supporter of the West. Such a perception risk isolating her government in a region where liberation movements turned ruling political party camaraderie and anti-imperialist solidarity still holds sway in some countries.

Another challenge that President Banda will soon face will revolve around Malawi’s position to allow Sudanese President Omar Hassan al-Bashir to enter the country in July to attend the summit in Lilongwe after the International Criminal Court (ICC) referred the Southern African country to the United Nations Security Council for refusing to arrest the indicted Sudanese leader during his visit to the country in October of last year.

As it stands, President Banda’s tenure is going to be very interesting as she tries to implement democratic reforms and some austerity measures to restore the country’s economy while at the same time hoping to ensure parliament’s vote of confidence and positioning herself for a win in the event she stands in the next presidential elections.

ACPP Daily Briefing, Wednesday, 11 April 2012 1 West Africa

Mali: The difficult process of return to democratic rule

The situation in Mali has considerably deteriorated over the past few days. Tuareg insurgents and Islamists have taken advantage of the existing political stalemate in Bamako to occupy the northern region and proclaimed its independence. At the same time, the junta that seized power in Bamako has found itself isolated both locally and externally. The downfall of the major cities in the north and the ensuing humanitarian crisis in the rebel-controlled areas have exposed the inability of the junta to effectively take control of the country and preserve its territorial integrity, as they expected of the previous government before staging the coup d’état The sanctions imposed by the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), coupled with domestic pressure has compelled the coup leaders to engage in negotiations with the regional body under the auspices of Burkina Faso’s President Blaise Compaore to craft an exit strategy for the junta and the resolution of the political and security impasse. The speed at which ECOWAS responded to the crisis in Mali emanated from its appreciation of the high stakes and the impact of the crisis on the region as a whole.

At the moment, Mali has to confront three main threats at the same time. Firstly, apart from violating the regional norms on unconstitutional change of government and disrupting the national democratisation project, the coup d’état has become a major source of instability due to the junta’s inability to preserve the territorial integrity of the country. Secondly, the Tuareg declaration of independence directly threatens the stability of Mali and many see the junta as contributing to these developments. Thirdly, the threat of terrorism as represented by the fundamentalist group Ansar Dine has gained momentum besides the proliferation of armed militias and groups and the complexity of the worsening security situation in the north.

The northern region of Mali has become a dangerous area where various armed groups including the National Movement for the Liberation of Azawad (NMLA), the National Front for the Liberation of Azawad (NFLA), Ansar Dine, and Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) with divergent agendas seek to establish their control at the expenses of the fundamental human rights of the citizens. There are also reports that Boko Haram members, the fundamentalist sect active in Nigeria, have been sighted in northern Mali raising fears over the possibility of a threat to create an Islamist state in the region.

All these call for diligent and coherent response mechanisms from Mali’s partners. ECOWAS is currently working on a strategy that encompasses both political initiatives and military options. Close to 3 000 troops are said to be on standby with the mandate for their deployment awaiting approval from the Heads of state. This military venture might face serious challenges in terms of its logistics, and the familiarity of the troops with the desert area.

The agreement reached by ECOWAS and the junta this week is therefore significant in many regards provided that all parties adhere to its provisions. The deal makes provisions for the appointment of an interim president, a government of national unity, and a plan to work towards holding presidential elections in forty days. As Dioncounda Traore, the Speaker of Parliament met with Amadou Sanago, the leader of the military junta, it was expected that both would work out the details for a speedy normalisation of the political crisis. Under the current arrangements for transition, Sanago is meant to step down for Traore to be sworn in as interim president. As guarantees for its support, ECOWAS immediately lifted the range of sanctions imposed on Mali on the conditions that an interim government be put in place. The normalisation of the political environment is seen as the first step toward the resolution of the security crisis in the north. There are concerns that the immediate lifting of the sanctions might weaken the regional body’s bargaining power and remove important tools for pressure and allow the junta to manipulate the process. ACPP Daily Briefing, Wednesday, 11 April 2012 2 Even though the ECOWAS deal stipulates a role for the junta in the defence and security matters of the country, some of its members might want to remain central to the political process for their own interests. As is common with most of the post-coup transitions, disagreements over the interpretation and implementation of the political deal by hardliners could cause further delay in the resolution of the crisis. Yet, the longer it takes, the more complex and protracted it could become.

Another concern is whether the elections could take place within the timeframe prescribed by ECOWAS. It is hoped that return to constitutional order will have two major outcomes. It could provide the much-needed sense of authority and create the environment to plan credible elections. It could also provide for a framework for negotiations with the insurgents on the status of the northern region. ECOWAS, AU, and other development partners including the US and France have officially rejected the declaration of the independence of Azawad. The debate is now around the nature of the political entity and the degree of autonomy that could be acceptable to all actors involved. Regardless of the form it will take, two key principles are likely to remain at the heart of the negotiations on the status of the northern region. These are the principle of territorial integrity and the principle of the intangibility of colonial borders, as controversial as they might be.

An independent state in northern Mali under the current circumstances will create more problems than it seeks to resolve. If allowed, Azawad is likely to become a refuge for war criminals, arms traffickers, kidnapers and terrorist groups. What is at stake here is no longer the national security of Mali but the security of the whole region and beyond. There is a need for coherence in regional and external actors’ stand on this. In the past, Tuareg insurgents used to seek refuge in Libya. The prevailing security and political situation in Libya and their involvement in the conflict alongside ’s army made the Libyan option impossible. Discussions between Algeria, Mauritania and Niger might also provide opportunity to define a common approach to the crisis.

The situation in northern Mali has the potential to become very chaotic and any further deterioration and delay must be avoided at all costs as it can lead to the destabilisation of the entire region.

End

ACPP Daily Briefing, Wednesday, 11 April 2012 3