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CHENNAI THE HINDU 12 EDITORIAL FRIDAY, MARCH 16, 2018 EEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE The strategy of conflict India must work towards some understanding with Pakistan before the situation on the border spins out of control

The years immediately after the the Pakistani side using high ca­ the current muscular approach. Credit tangle 2003 CFA witnessed a great deal of libre weapons while not showing Second, more killing and destruc­ calm on the borders with CFVs any desire for talks, negotiations tion would also steadily shrink the The RBI’s omnibus ban on a legitimate dropping to a minimum even or concessions, and shunning Pa­ space available for negotiated out­ financing instrument is not the solution though infiltration into J&K and kistani suggestions thereof. India’s comes with Pakistan. Finally, the sporadic, minor terror attacks reported rejection, in January, of a current media frenzy surrounding month after the ₹12,800­crore letters of under­ Happymon Jacob against India continued to take Pakistani proposal for a meeting the border violence and the asso­ taking (LoUs) fraud at Punjab National Bank place. There were no major terror between the two Directors Gener­ ciated nationalist sentiments Acame to light, the Reserve Bank of India has de­ attacks, and Kashmir was calm. Bi­ al of Military Operations (DGMOs), could become a worry for the go­ cided to ban such instruments as well as letters of com­ little over two months into lateral talks drastically reduced saying it first wanted to see a drop vernment if and when it wishes to

fort issued by bankers to businesses for international 2018, the violence on the violence during that phase. This PTI in infiltration levels is a direct out­ negotiate with Pakistan. transactions. While the government has been in fire­ AJammu and Kashmir ( J&K) lasted roughly till 2008. come of this strategy. The domes­ fighting mode, unleashing all investigative agencies to stretch of the India­Pakistan bor­ Another phase when this strate­ tic component of this strategy also Pakistan’s three-fold strategy der has reached a new high: more gy was evident was following to 2012 seems to fall in this catego­ involves a great deal of politicisa­ Pakistan seems to adopt a three­ probe the fraud, this is the first major step by the cen­ than 633 ceasefire violations Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s ry. Consider this: the two sides en­ tion of the Indian Army’s feats on fold strategy on the J&K border in­ tral bank on the issue, apart from asking banks to en­ (CFVs) by Pakistan have been re­ visit to Lahore. Thanks to the rap­ gaged each other in talks during or across the Line of Control, such formed by its conventional infe­ sure there are no slip­ups between their core bankin g ported by New Delhi which have prochement achieved by his visit, this time and CFVs reduced signif­ as the surgical strikes against Pa­ riority vis­à­vis India: keep the vio­ systems and the SWIFT mechanism used for interna­ claimed the lives of 12 civilians and the period from December 2015 to icantly — India reported 70 viola­ kistan in September 2016. lence on the border carefully tional money transfers. LoUs are among the most pop­ 10 soldiers. Many more have been February 2016 hardly witnessed tions in 2010, 62 in 2011 and 114 in CFVs since April 2016 and the calibrated without upping the ular instruments to secure overseas credit by importers injured and several civilian habi­ any CFVs, despite the Pathankot 2012. In 2010, the two Foreign Se­ current state of India­Pakistan re­ ante; seek meaningful talks on — known as buyers’ credit in banking parlance — be­ tats along the border destroyed. Air Force base attack in early Janu­ cretaries met in New Delhi, fol­ lations are largely informed by this Kashmir to turn down the rhetoric Till the first week of March, Pakis­ ary 2016. lowed by the two Foreign Minis­ strategy. Despite the rising terro­ on Kashmir and infiltration into cause of their attractive pricing. It is estimated that ov­ tan reported 415 CFVs by India The benefits of this strategy, ters meeting in Islamabad. In 2011, rist attacks inside J&K and the in­ J&K; propose tactical measures to erall, bank finance for imports into India is around $140 which have claimed 20 civilian adopted mostly by the previous the two Foreign Secretaries met in creasing CFVs, there has been reduce violence on the borders billion, of which over 60% is funded through such lives (there is no data on Pakistani United Progressive Alliance go­ Thimphu, and in 2012 the Indian hardly any dialogue (barring the such as DGMO talks and reduction buyers’ credit. Naturally, industry is unhappy with the military casualties). vernment and briefly by the in­ and Pakistani Foreign Ministers is­ meeting between the two National in the calibre of weapons, without RBI decision as this would raise the cost for importers, The calibre of weapons used on cumbent National Democratic Al­ sued a joint statement in Islama­ Security Advisors in Bangkok, giving up its claims and interests in who will now need to rely on more expensive instru­ the border have also graduated liance government, are evident. bad. which achieved precious little). In­ Kashmir. In other words, Pakistan ments such as bank guarantees and letters of credit. from short­range personal wea­ Engagement with Pakistan and While the talks went on, the fir­ dia, according to Pakistan, violat­ is looking for either conflict man­ pons to 105 mm mortars, 130 and quiet on the border are strongly ing on the J&K borders did not ed the ceasefire 389 times from agement vis­à­vis the J&K border The move will also impact the competitiveness of ex­ 155 mm artillery guns and anti­ correlated. The downside, howev­ come to a complete halt. Both April to December 2016, and in or a major dialogue process to re­ porters who import raw materials for their products. tank guided missiles. With the ris­ er, is that New Delhi feels that it talks and firing persisted, though 2017 over 2,000 times, with the solve the Kashmir issue. While the central bank had earlier blamed “delin­ ing violence, casualties and up­ tried the strategy of peace and at moderate levels. The benefits of trend continuing this year. India There is then a clear mismatch quent behaviour by one or more employees of the coming elections in both coun­ talks several times in the past and this game of proportionate res­ reported 449 violations by Pakis­ between the expectations and bank” and failure of internal controls for the PNB­Nirav tries, we may have a perfect recipe failed to get a positive response ponse — ‘talks for talks and bullets tan in 2016, and 860 in 2017. strategies of New Delhi and Isla­ Modi fiasco, RBI Governor Urjit Patel has finally com­ for escalation on our hands. from Pakistan. This has led to a for bullets’ — which went on with­ The benefits of this dispropor­ mabad/Rawalpindi. Whereas In­ mented on the fraud . Mr. Patel said he had chosen to The question we must ask our­ great deal of bitterness in India. out much fuss are clear: very little tionate bombardment strategy are dia is looking for an end to cross­ selves at this point, then, is this: is Failure of this strategy has been risk of escalation, fewer casualties too obvious to miss. Its domestic border infiltration and Pakistani speak because the central bank also feels the anger and this sheer mindless violence, or is due to the periodic terror attacks and limited destruction. political utility is enormous given involvement in Kashmir in return pain over the banking sector frauds that amount to there a strategy behind this vio­ carried out against India, infiltra­ However, this strategy comes the surprisingly few questions be­ for an end to shelling on the bor­ “looting” the country’s future by “some in the business lence? And if there indeed is a stra­ tion into J&K and the rise of mili­ with major political costs. Hardlin­ ing asked of the government about der, Pakistan is desirous of a reso­ community, in cahoots with some lenders”. Reiterating tegy, is it a carefully calibrated one tancy in Kashmir, in all of which ers and the opposition in India the rising civilian and military ca­ lution of or meaningful talks on that PNB’s internal systems failed to take note of the and what are its likely outcomes? India sees significant contribution criticised the Manmohan Singh go­ sualties. The ‘we kill more than Kashmir in return for calm bor­ RBI’s warnings about such risks, Mr. Patel took on sev­ of the Pakistani establishment. vernment of being weak, in partic­ they do’ argument, combined ders and cracking down on anti­In­ ere criticism about the RBI’s inability to detect the Three strategies While there are benefits of talks, ular when the beheadings of In­ with the ‘surgical strikes’ narra­ dia terror groups in Pakistan. The Ever since the ceasefire agreement they are neither consistent nor dian soldiers took place in 2013, tive, creates a powerful political two sides must therefore try and fraud. He stressed that the RBI didn’t have adequate (CFA) of 2003, New Delhi seems to without political costs. Put diffe­ and reports indicated an increas­ discourse laden with potential find a via media between these powers to regulate public sector banks, and it could not have followed three broad strate­ rently, the costs of ‘talks over bul­ ing spate of what India refers to as electoral benefits for the ruling two differing sets of expectations if remove any of their directors or liquidate such a lender, gies to deal with the violence on lets’ strategy, in New Delhi’s calcu­ BAT (border action team) opera­ dispensation in New Delhi. they wish to bring down the vio­ as it can in the case of private sector banks. He made an the J&K border. These three ap­ lation, seem to outweigh the tions by the Pakistan army. The There are inherent costs asso­ lence on the J&K border that is in­ eloquent demand that the owner of public sector banks proaches — ‘talks over bullets’, benefits. political costs of not upping the ciated with this strategy. First, the creasingly spiralling out of control. (that is, the government) must consider making the ‘talks and bullets’, and ‘dispropor­ The second strategy has been to ante against Pakistan seemed to disproportionate bombardment RBI’s powers over banks ‘ownership­neutral’ and say tionate bombardment’ — have engage in talks while proportion­ outweigh its military benefits. strategy could potentially escalate Happymon Jacob teaches Indian Foreign what could be done with these banks. The RBI’s stance identifiable costs and benefits as­ ately responding to Pakistani pro­ The third Indian strategy is dis­ to worrying levels — a rising toll Policy at JNU and curates an online sociated with them. vocations. The period from 2010 proportionate bombardment of could reverse popular support for archive on the India­Pakistan conflict is valid, as is its discomfort with knee­jerk reactions and the blame games since the fraud came to light. In the very same vein, its omnibus ban of LoUs will impact the $85 billion buyers’ credit market that was mostly co n­ ducted in accordance with the law of the land. If an in­ A pattern the BJP cannot ignore dividual or some failed systems of a bank were indee d to blame, why should bona fide transactions suffer? Per­ Will the Opposition now come together to field joint candidates against the BJP? haps the RBI could have tightened the norms for LoUs and introduced safeguards based on the latest learn­ ford any setbacks here if it hopes this round of elections, they say, as mi party; yet the SP’s Kurmi candi­ ings. It is still not too late to do that. to return to power in 2019. they did in the general elections. date defeated the BJP’s Kurmi can­ For the still­divided Opposition, Of Bihar, they say, the RJD benefit­ didate in Phulpur. In Gorakhpur, the success of the Samajwadi Party ted from “sympathy” for the incar­ the SP shattered the BJP’s most Rexit and beyond (SP)­Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) cerated Mr. Prasad. backward caste coalition by field­ ‘understanding’ in breaching But ground reports from Go­ ing Pravin Nishad, who belongs to More proof that propriety, protocol, punditry Smita Gupta Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath’s ci­ rakhpur and Phulpur suggest oth­ a backward community and is the no longer hold sway in the U.S. administration tadel of Gorakhpur and winning erwise. Dalits, for instance, not son of Sanjay Nishad, who heads Deputy Chief Minister Keshav Pra­ just in U.P. but across the country, the Nishad Party that enjoys wide ven by his standards for unexpected diktats, U.S. he bypoll results in Uttar Pra­ sad Maurya’s Phulpur seat has have been seeking an option after support in the Gorakhpur belt. In

President Donald Trump’s decision to fire his Se­ desh and Bihar, taken to­ created a template for 2019 — field­ RAJEEV BHATT rising instances of anti­Dalit vio­ short, the SP and the BSP have Ecretary of State, Rex Tillerson, and replace him Tgether with those last month ing a joint candidate against the lence. BSP sources say there was reached out, and successfully for with CIA Director Mike Pompeo, came out of the blue. in Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh, BJP nominee in as many consti­ Minister Jitan Ram Manjhi, who pressure “from below on Behenji now, to their old following among are suggestive of a pattern that the tuencies as possible. The efficacy belongs to the poorest Dalit com­ (BSP chief Mayawati)” to extend the most backward castes. Over Mr. Tillerson, who was the CEO of ExxonMobil Corpo­ Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) can­ of this model was tested in 2015, munity of Musahars, from the support to the SP as there was no the years, the SP, from being a coa­ ration before taking up the role, did not agree with Mr. not afford to ignore. The party will when the Rashtriya Janata Dal NDA. BSP candidate in the fray. When lition of backward castes, had Trump on fundamental policy matters, the President not just have to reassess its ground (RJD), the JD(U) and the Congress The BJP has undoubtedly in­ Ms. Mayawati told her cadres to shrunk into a party of Yadavs. Si­ said. This is widely seen as an allusion to Mr. Tillerson’s game — and the impact of policies joined hands to defeat the BJP in creased its political footprint since defeat the BJP, they did so with en­ milarly, the BSP had lost most of its preference, contra­Trump, for diplomacy as a means of followed by its governments in the the Bihar elections, reversing the the spectacular victory of 2014. It thusiasm. In fact, anti­BJP discon­ backward caste leaders in the run­ defusing the North Korean crisis. Also implied was a wi­ States and at the Centre — it will al­ trends of the Lok Sabha polls of is in power, on its own or in an al­ tent is being expressed along ma­ up to the 2017 U.P. polls, and was dening chasm between the two men on the merits of so have to seriously consider the 2014 when the BJP capitalised on liance, in 21 States. And yet, it has ny axes. The middle class, which limited to a party of Jatavs, to criticism from its parent organisa­ the multi­cornered contests. been defeated in a string of Lok tends to be a votary of the BJP, is which Ms. Mayawati belongs. the Iran nuclear deal. With Mr. Tillerson’s departure, tion, the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Now, in Bihar, the BJP­JD(U) Sabha and Assembly bypolls in feeling the pinch with the econom­ Clearly, there are many lessons the number of senior officials exiting the Trump admi­ Sangh, that those in power cannot combine has turned out to be less which its candidates were in direct ic slowdown. Brahmins in U.P. are in these elections. The BJP will nistration after a little more than a year has reached at afford to be arrogant. formidable than predicted, and contest with the winners. said to be unhappy that Thakurs, doubtless pay heed to the message least 24. Less than a week before the long­rumoured the RJD retained the Araria Lok led by Mr. Adityanath, are getting sent out by voters, but what of the “Rexit”, White House Chief Economic Adviser Gary Message in the numbers Sabha and Jehanabad Assembly Passing the buck prized government postings. Trad­ Opposition? Will its leaders show Cohn, formerly a Wall Street banker, quit his post over In 2014, 93 of the BJP’s 282 Lok seats. The fact that RJD supremo Today, the BJP — and its apologists ers of all stripes, having been hit the statesmanship to sink their dif­ his opposition to Mr. Trump’s proposal to levy hefty Sabha seats came from U.P. and Bi­ Lalu Prasad is in jail made little dif­ — are comforting themselves by first by demonetisation, are reel­ ferences, overcome their egos and har. This was a key reason why the ference to voters who saw the saying the defeat of its candidates ing under the impact of the Goods build on the beginning that the SP steel and aluminium tariffs. And, less than a week be ­ BJP swung into action after it lost change in government as a be­ in U.P. represents a failure of Mr. and Services Tax rollout. and BSP — despite a bad history — fore Mr. Cohn, White House Communications Director the Bihar Assembly elections in trayal of the 2015 mandate; what Adityanath, and is in no way a re­ More importantly, the caste al­ have made? Only a grand alliance Hope Hicks resigned after admitting to a Congressional 2015 to ‘persuade’ Bihar Chief Mi­ made a difference was the way in flection of voters’ assessment of liance that the BJP so carefully will be able to take on the might of panel investigating Russian influence on the 2016 elec­ nister Nitish Kumar’s Janata Dal which his son Tejashwi Yadav the Narendra Modi government. stitched together for 2014 and 2017 the BJP in 2019. tion that she had occasionally told “white lies” on Mr. (United), or JD(U), to return to the managed the campaign, and the Neither Mr. Modi nor BJP Presi­ has come apart. The BJP’s alliance Trump’s behalf. Rumours now swirl that National Se­ NDA fold. It cannot therefore af­ last­minute exit of former Chief dent Amit Shah campaigned in partner in U.P. is Apna Dal, a Kur­ Smita Gupta is a Delhi­based journalist curity Adviser H.R. McMaster may also soon be ousted. The question at this point is: does the existing coterie of senior White House officials enjoy the confidence of LETTERS TO THE EDITOR Letters emailed to [email protected] must carry the full postal address and the full name or the name with initials. their President to a sufficient magnitude as to ensure that policies can be executed in a meaningful way? Bypoll shock the 2019, the BJP’s Mevani and Alpesh Thakor. amusing (“The Left doesn’t Both the Left and the socialist Nehruvian era was In one sense, there does not appear to be cause for If the reverses in the prospects in U.P. may be It would be better for the need the Congress”, March Congress are facing the golden age of the alarm over the incessant departures from the White Madhya Pradesh and bleak. opposition to project a 15). The only communist existential crises like never Congress. So, the two House. It is quite possible that Mr. Trump has used his Rajasthan bypolls had put C.V. Aravind, non­Congress leader as a Chief Minister in the before. With the right wing should complement each Chennai first year in office to consolidate his vision and attr act the BJP on the back foot, prime ministerial country is Pinarayi Vijayan. deepening its roots, we other rather than compete. the U.P. and Bihar bypoll candidate, as voters are not Communism is no longer a must consider these Mayukh Devadas, the right talent to realise his governance paradigm, es­ results must have come as a If we look at the results ready to accept Mr. Gandhi. force to reckon with in exceptional circumstances Thrissur sentially rooted in a nationalistic, or “America First” , rude shock (“Triple bypoll from a different angle, This is the only way the BJP either West Bengal or and the two should join more letters online: world view. Take the case of Mr. Pompeo: he is far more shock for BJP”, March 15). these losses could be a can be challenged. Tripura. hands. Moreover, the www.hindu.com/opinion/letters/ aligned with Mr. Trump’s hawkish approach towards What should rankle the blessing in disguise for the V.S. Ganeshan, The very idea of the Kim Jong­un regime than Mr. Tillerson was. There is party more is that it lost the BJP. Knowing the party, it is Bengaluru communism is unattractive Lok Sabha seats previously going to leave no stone to Indians. Whichever party corrections & clarifications: >>A report on Tamil Nadu gov­ a case to be made that Mr. Trump’s hardline stance is ernment’s submissions ­ on sand import issue ­ at the Madras High what is ultimately bringing the North Koreans to the ne­ held by both the U.P. Chief unturned to retain power at The BJP’s detractors might aligns with the Left is Court was erroneously headlined "HC justifies curbs on sale of im­ Minister and Deputy Chief the Centre in 2019. be happy. But once the looked at derisively. That gotiating table. Mr. Tillerson, insistent on talks, was ported sand” (March 15, 2018, some editions). It should have read: Minister. It is becoming P.U. Krishnan, euphoria settles, the being the case, there is no “Tamil Nadu government justifies curbs on sale of imported sand.” likely to have been an impediment to this strategy. The evident that the NDA’s Ooty question is, what would scope for arguing that the >>A Business page report, “Unions to protest commercial min­ deeper message is that the liberal order of the Obama sheen is wearing off and SP­BSP rule look like? Left does not need the ing” (March 14, 2018), erroneously said that the joint sector years is gone. Propriety, protocol and punditry no lon­ that voters have begun to The BSP­SP understanding Voters need to think about Congress to align with. Singareni Collieries Company Ltd. (SCCL) was held by the Centre and the Andhra Pradesh government. Actually, it is the Telangana ger hold sway — Mr. Trump had no quarrel with Mr. Til­ see through the in U.P. should inspire all the that. The current win by Neither the Left nor the government that holds stake in SCCL jointly with the Centre. lerson over the Secretary leaving numerous senior State government’s boasts about other opposition parties to this disparate alliance will Congress has much >>In the Business page Explainer, “What was the 20:80 gold im­ Department posts vacant, but only cared about the top its non­existent come together and pose a have limited significance in relevance in the present port scheme?” (March 14, 2018), gold import figures were erro­ achievements. It has failed challenge to the BJP in 2019. the long run. political landscape. If neously given in million tonnes. They should have been in metric diplomat’s concurrence with his strategy. The President tonnes. to tackle unemployment But the opposition should S. Rajagopalan, anything, perhaps we can will likely apply this principle — and find himself the and agricultural distress, not give too much room to Chennai speak of how the Congress It is the policy of The Hindu to correct significant errors as soon as possible. Please specify right people — in other policy areas as well, such as the edition (place of publication), date and page. The Readers’ Editor’s office can be and has not been able to the Congress. Under Rahul can survive without the contacted by Telephone: +91-44-28418297/28576300 (11 a.m. to 5 p.m., Monday to trade and immigration. Nations that engage with Amer­ stop the activities of the Gandhi, it lost in Gujarat, What is Left? Left. Friday); Fax: +91-44-28552963; E­mail:[email protected]; Mail: Readers’ Editor, The Hindu, Kasturi Buildings, 859 & 860 Anna Salai, Chennai 600 002, India. V. Lakshmanan, ica may glean valuable lessons from this churn. fringe. If the SP­BSP despite aligning with The portrayal of the Left as All communication must carry the full postal address and telephone number. No personal combine remains intact till Hardik Patel, Jignesh a potent political force is Tirupur visits. The Terms of Reference for the Readers’ Editor are on www.thehindu.com

CM M CH-CHE YK