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Graphic from the April 2010 Quarterly Report To 4/24/2010 2:26:45 AM 2:26:45 4/24/2010 1 Outside-forplacement.indd Insert April Relationship between Price of Oil, Iraqi Oil Receipts, and GDP 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 $8 $160 Global Recession $7 $140 $6.97 Daily Oil Price ($ per barrel) Daily Oil Price $6 Estimated Monthly GDP $120 $5 $100 $4.61 $4 $81.99 $80 ($ Billions) $3 Daily Oil Price $60 $2 $40 $1 Monthly Oil Receipts $20 Monthly Oil Receipts and Estimated GDP and Estimated Monthly Oil Receipts $0 $0 ($ Billions) GDP $37.92 $35.99 $49.27 $62.38 $91.45 $70.10 $83.63 GOI Budget $33.39 $31.38 $32.10 $41.05 $72.18 $58.61 $72.36 $16.52 $21.86 Oil Receipts $28.13 $35.88 $58.79 $37.02 $51.11 Macro Indicators: Iraq vs. Selected Countries Military Adult Literacy Infant Mortality External Debt Spending Rate (% aged (per 1,000 Population GDP ($ Billions) (as a % of GDP) (as a % of GDP) 15 and above) live births) Growth Rate $14,260.00 UNITED STATES 5,228.1% LUXEMBOURG 11.4% OMAN 99.7% SLOVENIA 2.3 SINGAPORE 3.7% UAE 10.0% SAUDI ARABIA 3.5% KUWAIT $876.00 IRAN 8.6% IRAQ UNITED STATES $581.30 SAUDI ARABIA 99.0% 2.6% PAKISTAN 8.6% JORDAN AFGHANISTAN $448.10 94.3% UNITED STATES 5.9% SYRIA 2.5% IRAQ 5.3% KUWAIT 2.2% JORDAN 44.9% IRAQ 4.1% UNITED STATES 94.5% KUWAIT 6.2 UNITED STATES $148.70 KUWAIT 2.0% SYRIA 9.0 KUWAIT 1.8% SAUDI ARABIA $112.00 IRAQ 3.0% PAKISTAN JORDAN $102.50 SYRIA 91.1% 11.6 SAUDI ARABIA 1.6% PAKISTAN 2.5% IRAN 21.9% KUWAIT 85.0% SAUDI ARABIA $33.06 JORDAN 20.3% JORDAN 16.7 SYRIA $23.35 AFGHANISTAN 1.9% AFGHANISTAN 17.4 JORDAN 1.0% UNITED STATES 83.1% SYRIA 0.9% IRAN 12.5% SAUDI ARABIA 82.3% IRAN 74.1% IRAQ 35.8 IRAN 11.6% PAKISTAN 11.6% AFGHANISTAN 44.7 IRAQ 7.4% SYRIA 54.2% PAKISTAN 67.4 PAKISTAN 2.1% IRAN 28.0% AFGHANISTAN 153.1 AFGHANISTAN $0.33 ZIMBABWE 0.0% BRUNEI 0.0% ICELAND 26.2% MALI 180.2 ANGOLA -0.8% BULGARIA Security Dilemma in Iraq ISF Capacity, as of 3/31/2010 Iran-supported Training a nationally Personnel Seeks Special Groups representative, civilian-led, and protection & Ministry of Interior Assigned support accountable ISF has been a central goal of the reconstruc- Iraqi Police Service 301,286 tion program. When the state is Attacks In unable to provide security, or it te non-aligned Iraqi Federal Police 43,937 g is perceived as biased, Shia ra groups t io ethnosectarian groups turn to Population n Border Enforcement 42,348 non-state security forces for Jaish al- protection and support. U.S. Oil Police 29,396 Mahdi forces seek to provide a security guarantee to all groups Total MOI 416,967 Badr and break the cycle of violence and recrimination. Despite Attacks Iraqi repeated attempts, integrating Personnel Shia Security Forces or demobilizing non-state Ministry of Defense Assigned forces remains a major security Al-Qaeda U.S. Forces Advise and Assist challenge. Iraqi Army 197,336 in Iraq Attacks Islamic State Sunnis Training and Support 46,459 of Iraq Attacks Sons of Air Force 4,023 non-aligned Iraq Sunni groups Population ? Navy 2,910 In teg ration Future Kurdish Special Forces 4,120 Seeks integration Population Islamic Army protection & or conflict Total MOD 254,848 in Iraq Ba’athists support Peshmerga Total ISF 671,815 M A 5 4 : 6 2 : 2 0 1 0 2 / 4 2 / 4 1 d d n i . t n e m e c a l p r o f - e d i s t u O t r e s n I l i r p A Major Office Holders: Where Are They Now? 2002–6/28/2004 7/13/2003–6/1/2004 6/28/2004–5/2/2005 5/3/2005–5/20/2006 5/20/2006–1/2010 CPA Iraqi Governing Council (Rotating Presidency) Iraqi Interim Government Iraqi Transitional Government First Permanent Government Paul Bremer President Ghazi al-Yawer (Tribal Leader) Jalal Talabani PUK Jalal Talabani PUK President ex-pat Ibrahim al-Ja’afari 8/03 Dawa Prime Minister Ayad Allawi INL Ibrahim al-Ja’afari Dawa Nouri al-Maliki Dawa Prime Minister Ahmed Chalabi 9/03 INC KDP 2010 Iraqi Budget ($ Millions) ex-pat Deputy Prime Minister ex-pat Barham Salih PUK Rowsch Shaways Barham Salih PUK Rowsch Shaways KDP Deputy Prime Minister ex-pat Ayad Allawi 10/03 INL Ahmed Chalabi INC Rafi al-Eissawi (Iraqi National) Capital Jalal Talabani 11/03 PUK $20,236 Abdul Mutlaq al-Jubouri (Tribal Leader) Abd al-Aziz al-Hakim 12/03 ISCI Vice President Ibrahim al-Ja’afari Dawa Adel Abdul al-Mahdi ISCI Tariq al-Hashimi (Renewal List) Vice President Mohammad al-Ulum 3/04 (Tribal) Rowsch Shaways KDP Ghazi al-Yawer (Tribal Leader) Adel Abdul al-Mahdi ISCI Massoud Barzani 4/04 KDP Minister ex-pat Adel Abdul al-Mahdi (Finance) Barham Salih (Planning) Minister ex-pat Ghazi al-Yawer 6/04 (Tribal Leader) Ahmed Chalabi (Oil) Prime Minister of Kurdistan Region Nechervan Barzani KDP Nechervan Barzani KDP Nechervan Barzani KDP Barham Salih PUK Prime Minister of Kurdistan Region Operating President of Kurdistan Region Massoud Barzani KDP Massoud Barzani KDP President of Kurdistan Region $52,120 CoR ex-pat Nouri al-Maliki Dawa Ahmed Chalabi (De-Ba’athification Committee) CoR LEGISLATIVE EXECUTIVE JUDICIAL $12 $90 $229 $18 CoR conducts $250 CoR drafts CoR legal Legislation President Legislation legislation check 3 readings of legislation approved approved Council of Representatives then votes Head of State Higher Judicial Council Elected legislature Supervises federal judiciary Prime Minister Head of Government $105 $13 Commander-in-Chief Supreme Court Shura Council CoM drafts Final appeals court; determines Commission on Commission on legal check legislation Becomes constitutionality of laws Property Disputes Accountability and Justice $303 law $1,005 $6 Court of Cassation Council of Ministers Appeals court $375 PM and Cabinet Ministers Judiciary Oversight Independent High Electoral Budget, by Ministries Commission Commission $ Millions $20 $427 $963 Central Criminal Court Adjudicates cases of wrongdoing $1,412 $3,490 $2,399 $2,653 $3,959 $4,311 Federal Budget Process Anticorruption Institutions Oil Health Education Electricity May return cases $299 with insufficient $151 $13 $21 $82 evidence $385 $256 $209 $470 $1,879 Transportation Communications Labor Youth and Sports Higher Education and Forward cases Scientific Research meriting action $197 $3,038 $174 $21 $24 $26 $1,102 Authorizes $60 $149 $96 $175 $25 $906 $476 Public officials and $6,029 $2,179 Provincial province Environment Culture Science and $3 Provincial and ministry Water Agriculture Technology $30 private citizens report Councils Investment cases of suspected Commissions spend plans Resources Commission on Integrity Provincial $58 wrongdoing to any of Management Investigates allegations of the three anticorruption Kurdistan public corruption Region $222 $140 $13 $9 agencies. $598 $427 $182 $17 Human $4,033 Industry and Immigration and Housing and Displacement Rights Construction Minerals Trade May return cases Report Allocates due to limited $722 $50 $78 $13 investigative findings funding to $202 $299 $451 capacity provinces $1,279 Planning and Foreign Justice Municipalities and Development Public Works IGs report Inspectors General $1,398 $256 $381 directly to Audit ministries and Report relevant investigate allegations findings Allocates 17% of government revenues to KRG after ministers of fraud, waste, and abuse deducting non-ministry central government expenditures and reconstruction costs $10,547 $5,888 $4,520 Capital Operating $3 Interior Defense $56 Finance Board of Supreme Audit Iraq’s main audit agency M A 5 4 : 6 2 : 2 0 1 0 2 / 4 2 / 4 1 d d n i . t n e m e c a l p r o f - e d i s t u O t r e s n I l i r p A Millennium Challenge Corporation Scorecard Ruling Justly Political Rights Civil Liberties Control of Corruption Government Effectiveness Rule of Law Voice and Accountability (Freedom House) (Freedom House) (World Bank Institute) (World Bank Institute) (World Bank Institute) (World Bank Institute) Iraq: 11 (24%) Iraq: 13 (6%) Iraq: -0.94 (0%) Iraq: -0.99 (0%) Iraq: -1.51 (0%) Iraq: -1.00 (15%) Median: 20 Median: 33 Median: 0 Median: 0 Median: 0 Median: 0 40 60 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 30 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 40 20 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 20 10 -1.0 -1.0 -1.0 -1.0 0 0 -2.0 -2.0 -2.0 -2.0 '04 '06 '08 '04 '06 '08 '04 '06 '08 '04 '06 '08 '04 '06 '08 '04 '06 '08 Investing in People Economic Freedom Immunization Rates Health Expenditures Natural Resource Management Regulatory Quality Business Start-up (World Health Org) (World Health Org) (CIESIN/YCELP) (World Bank Institute) (IFC) Iraq’s score Percentile ranking Iraq: 65.5 (3%) Iraq: 2.32 (41%) Iraq: 61.89 (23%) Iraq: -0.66 (24%) Iraq: 0.869 (6%) within income group Median: 93.5 Median: 2.81 Median: 79.64 Median: 0 Median: 0.96 Median score for income group 100 15 100 2.0 1.0 Current year’s median score 80 12 75 1.0 0.8 9 0.6 Iraq’s score 60 50 0.0 6 0.4 40 3 25 -1.0 0.2 20 0 0 -2.0 0.0 '04 '06 '08 '04 '06 '08 '05 '07 '09 '04 '06 '08 '05 '07 '09 Public Distribution System: A Flow Chart of Responsibility Selected Economic Comparisons, Iraq vs.
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