EGYPT

TRAPPED: A portrait of Mohamed Mursi, who became ’s first democratically elected president, was placed in barbed wire outside the Republican Guard headquarters in the days after Mursi was overthrown by the army. REUTERS/KHALED ABDULLAH How the Muslim Brotherhood lost Egypt After waiting decades to win control of the country, the movement lost power in a year. Here’s the inside story of what went wrong

By Edmund Blair, Paul Taylor and Tom Perry CAIRO, July 25 2013

SPECIAL REPORT 1 EGYPT How the Muslim Brotherhood lost Egypt

hen poured onto the mood of changing,” Moussa said. Nour had poor intelligence on what was brewing the streets in their millions to gave a similar account, saying Shater did in the streets and the barracks. W demand the fall of President not budge. But he added that the talks Yet many Egyptian and foreign observ- Hosni Mubarak in 2011, few thought they might have started a process of political ers still expected the tightly knit Islamist would return two years later demonstrating compromise had they not been exposed in movement, hardened by decades of repres- for the overthrow of the man they elected the media. sion, to dominate Egypt and the region for to replace him. “(Shater) is a normal person and his a prolonged period, after 60 years of rule by The stunning fall from power of appearance does not do him justice. His army-backed strongmen. Instead, Mursi President Mohamed Mursi, and the appearance gives the impression of myste- was bundled out of office and into military Muslim Brotherhood which backed him, riousness and ruthlessness, but he is well- detention on July 3 amid huge anti-govern- has upended politics in the volatile Middle mannered and gentle,” Nour said. ment protests, barely a year after he became East for a second time after the Arab Spring The dinner on a terrace around the the first democratically elected leader of the uprisings toppled veteran autocrats. swimming pool of Nour’s 8th-floor duplex Arab world’s most populous nation. Some of the principal causes were high- apartment was cut short when journal- Mursi’s failure sends a powerful mes- lighted a month before the army intervened ists got wind of the meeting. Moussa left sage: winning an election is not sufficient to remove Mursi, when two of Egypt’s convinced that the Brotherhood were over- to govern Egypt. Post-Mubarak rulers need most senior power brokers met for a pri- confident, incompetent in government and the acquiescence of the security establish- vate dinner at the home of liberal politician ment and of the population at large. Upset on the island of Zamalek, a either and your position is not secure. lush bourgeois oasis in the midst of Cairo’s The entire council of the Egypt’s Islamists may draw the bitter seething megalopolis. It was seen by some Guidance Office of the Muslim lesson that the “deep state” will not let them as a last attempt to avert a showdown. Brotherhood was against the wield real power, even with a democratic The two power brokers were Amr presidential nomination. mandate. This report, compiled from in- Moussa, 76, a long-time foreign minister terviews with senior Muslim Brotherhood under Mubarak and now a secular nation- Gehad El-Haddad and secular politicians, youth activists, mili- alist politician, and Khairat El-Shater, 63, a spokesman for the Muslim Brotherhood tary officers and diplomats, examines four the Brotherhood’s deputy leader and most influential strategist and financier. Moussa suggested that to avoid confrontation, Mursi should heed opposition demands, including a change of government. “He (Shater) acknowledged what I said about the bad management of Egyptian af- fairs under their government and that there is a problem,” Moussa told Reuters. “He was talking carefully and listening attentively.” Shater, a thick-set grizzly bear of a man who is now in detention and cannot tell his side of events, replied that the government’s problems were due to the “non-cooperation of the ‘deep state’” – the entrenched inter- ests in the army, the security services, some of the judiciary and the bureaucracy, ac- cording to Moussa’s account. “The message that I got after one hour was that OK, he would discuss with me, DISQUALIFIED: Khairat El-Shater, deputy leader of the Muslim Brotherhood, was barred from agree with some of my arguments, dis- standing for president, leading to the unexpected choice of Mohamed Mursi instead. REUTERS/ agree with the rest, but they were not in MOHAMED ABD EL GHANY

SPECIAL REPORT 2 EGYPT How the Muslim Brotherhood lost Egypt

turning points on Egypt’s revolutionary road: the Brotherhood’s decision to seek the presidency; the way Mursi pushed through the constitution; the failures of the secular opposition; and the military’s deci- sion to step in. Mursi and some senior Muslim Brotherhood leaders, who have been held incommunicado since the coup, could not be reached for comment. With the Brotherhood angrily resist- ing its eviction from power, the prospects of Egypt’s second transition to democracy being smoother than the first look slight. This time, the army says it does not wish to exercise power directly as it did in 2011- 12 after Mubarak’s fall. But few doubt that armed forces commander General Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, who planned Mursi’s over- throw and has since been promoted to MILITARY POWER: Egypt’s armed forces chief General Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, pictured on a poster held deputy prime minister as well as minister by a protester, acted after mass demonstrations called for the removal of the president. of defence, is the man now in control. REUTERS/MOHAMED ABD EL GHANY

TO RUN OR NOT TO RUN? In the immediate aftermath of Mubarak’s that was not sufficient to pass or implement vote from the grass roots up, even that vote.” overthrow, the Brotherhood had no inten- legislation. An army council kept the keys Opponents argued that the quest for tion of ruling. It reassured secular Egyptians to power. executive power was premature and would and the army by promising publicly not to As the frustrations grew, some mem- fuel suspicion and hostility towards the seek the presidency or an outright parlia- bers of the Brotherhood – particularly the Brotherhood, which had long pursued a mentary majority. young – began to press for the movement to patient, gradualist strategy. “I met Shater three times in 2011/2012 change its stance and bid for the presidency The issue came to a head at a marathon and each time it was clear that the po- and the executive power it would bring. closed-door meeting of the Brotherhood’s litical appetite was growing, but the first “The entire council of the Guidance Shura Council at its four-storey headquar- time he was extremely explicit that the Office of the Muslim Brotherhood was ters in the hill-top Moqattam disctrict that Brotherhood would not seek political pow- against the presidential nomination,” said overlooks Cairo from the south. er right away,” said U.S. academic Nathan Gehad El-Haddad, 31, one of the leading “We remained for three days, debating, Brown, a leading expert on Egypt at the young Islamists. So Haddad and 16 other each team giving the justifications of the Carnegie Endowment for International youth activists exploited Facebook and opinion it had, whether accepting or reject- Peace. “He was very clear to the reasons: the Twitter to change minds. ing. And when the vote happened, the de- world’s not ready for it, Egypt’s not ready “We lobbied, the youth of the Muslim cision was just by three or four votes,” said for it, and – the phrase he kept using – the Brotherhood, we literally lobbied. We put Essam , 63, a university engineer- burdens of Egypt are too big for any one up a chart of the Shura council members ing lecturer and Shura member. political actor. Those turned out to be very and decided which ones to pressure to It was one of the most closely contested sound judgments but he abandoned them.” change their vote,” the British-educated votes in the history of the movement and Events began to take on a momentum activist, now the movement’s spokesman, went to three rounds. Just 56 of the 108 of their own. The Brotherhood won con- said in a midnight interview at a pro-Mursi members voted on the decisive ballot to put trol of parliament in alliance with smaller protest camp outside a mosque in eastern up a candidate for president, while 52 voted Islamist and independents, but soon found Cairo. “The Muslim Brotherhood takes its against. After that, support for Shater as

SPECIAL REPORT 3 EGYPT How the Muslim Brotherhood lost Egypt

the Brotherhood’s candidate for president became overwhelming. Egypt’s ailing economy The Islamists had earlier looked at nom- inating someone outside their movement, TOURIST NUMBERS HAVE DECLINED approaching respected judges Ahmed Mekky and Hossam Gheriyani, who had 2009/2010 13.76 million stood up to Mubarak. Both declined. 2010/2011 11.93 million Insiders said Shater’s charisma and am- bition were key factors. The furniture and 2011/2012 10.95 million shopping mall magnate was the dominant politician in the movement, described by col- leagues and foreign diplomats as a powerful, WHILE UNEMPLOYMENT IS UP pragmatic negotiator used to getting his way. Percent But his candidacy was short-lived. The 2009 9.4 electoral commission, headed by a Mubarak 2010 9.2 appointee, disqualified him on the grounds that he had been convicted of a criminal of- 2011 12.1 fence in 2007, even if the charges seemed Estimates 2012 12.3 politically motivated. 2013 13.6 The mantle of Brotherhood candidate thus fell uncomfortably on the shoulders of Mursi, a provincial engineering professor who had studied in the United States but INFLATION IS RISING Annual inflation rates, April 2013. Percent had less political savvy and public-speaking ability than Shater. Oils and fats 5.2 “When we took the decision to nomi- Milk, cheese and eggs nate Mursi, after the withdrawal of Khairat 13.2 El-Shater, he (Mursi) returned home weep- Mineral water, soft drinks 14.1 ing: he had been given a responsibility that Coffee, tea and cocoa 21.2 he had not sought,” Hashish said. “It was known that whoever took responsibility at this time would not find the road covered AND THE BUDGET DEFICIT HAS GROWN in roses. But we also knew that there was U.S.$ billions nobody at that time who could undertake this the way we could.” 2007/2008 8.7 Mursi narrowly won the presidential 2008/2009 10.2 election on the second round of voting with 51.73 percent of the vote against Ahmed 2009/2010 13.9 Shafik, a former air force general who was 2010/2011 19.2 Mubarak’s last prime minister and faithful 2011/2012 ally. The chubby, bespectacled Islamist owed 23.8 his victory partly to the support of liberal and 2012/2013 29.2 leftist candidates who threw their weight be- (July-May) hind him between the two rounds. Their sup- porters hated Shafik and were given a string Sources: Egyptian Ministry of Finance; International Monetary Fund; Reuters. of assurances that Mursi would form an in- clusive government, and involve them and civil society in drafting a new constitution.

SPECIAL REPORT 4 EGYPT How the Muslim Brotherhood lost Egypt

FLAGGING SUPPORT? Army helicopters flew Egyptian flags over demonstrators the day after the president’s overthrow. The Muslim Brotherhood remains outraged at the military intervention. REUTERS/STEVE CRISP

Voters who switched from secular can- Mursi appointed a pious Muslim, General took care of the army’s economic interests didates on the first round to Mursi in the Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, as commander of the when drafting a new constitution. “He run-off were dubbed “lemon squeezers” in armed forces. thought Sisi was his guy,” a senior Western reference to the Egyptian tradition of mak- In one of the biggest misunderstandings diplomat said. “He didn’t understand the ing unpalatable food edible with a splash of of his term, the president believed he had power dynamics.” lemon juice. stamped his authority on the men in uni- When Mursi and the Brotherhood form. In reality, the officer corps was willing pushed for a new constitution they clashed RAMMING THROUGH THE to see two old retainers put out to pasture, with secular parties and civil society groups CONSTITUTION clearing a blocked promotion ladder. “They angered by the Islamist tinge to the charter, Mursi moved swiftly to shake up the mili- (the Brotherhood) misread what happened. ambiguous wording on freedom of expres- tary after his inauguration on June 30, We allowed it to happen,” said one colonel. sion, and the absence of explicit guarantees 2012. Within six weeks, he summoned The military still viewed with deep sus- of the rights of women, Christians and Field Marshal Hussein Tantawi, 76, who picion a head of state who, they believed, non-government organisations. had served Mubarak for two decades and saw Egypt as “just part of a bigger (Islamic) After weeks of debate, fear that a ju- was interim head of state after him, and Caliphate,” said the colonel. diciary packed with Mubarak-era ap- told him to retire, along with the U.S.- Mursi believed the military would not act pointees would dissolve the constituent trained chief of staff, General Sami Enan. against him, especially if the Brotherhood assembly helped prompt Mursi to issue

SPECIAL REPORT 5 EGYPT How the Muslim Brotherhood lost Egypt

VIOLENT DIVIDE: An activist pictured amid tear gas during protests against former president Mohamed Mursi, and a supporter of Mursi injured during clashes after he was deposed. REUTERS/MOHAMED ABD EL GHANY

REJECTING THE a decree shielding the assembly from le- epicentre of the troubles. But he struggled OUTSTRETCHED HAND gal challenge and putting the president to command obedience. above judicial review. It was a move borne The constitutional decree triggered weeks “People at night were playing football out of the Brotherhood’s deep suspicion of street demonstrations outside Mursi’s with the army which was supposed to be that the judiciary was out to undo all its Ittihadiya palace, which was regularly at- imposing the curfew,” said Mekky, who electoral gains. When Mursi rammed tacked with petrol bombs, rocks and metal had become justice minister. “So when I the new charter through, the opposition bolts. Frustrated at the failure of the police (as president) impose a curfew and I see walked out. and the Republican Guards to protect the neither my citizens nor my army that are “The truth is that the declaration (tak- presidency, the Brotherhood fielded its own supposed to implement the curfew are lis- ing supra-legal powers) was a big mistake,” well-drilled security guard outside the pal- tening to me, I should know that I am not said Nour. It was still possible to rebuild ace in pitched battles with anti-Mursi pro- really a president.” confidence between Mursi and the po- testers on Dec. 6. On Jan. 29, the army issued the first of litical forces, he said, “but there was not The protests eventually faded, but that a series of solemn warnings that political enough effort from the two sides to rebuild single sighting of an organised Brotherhood unrest was pushing Egypt to the brink of this confidence.” force in the streets, albeit without visible collapse and that the armed forces would The constitutional decree was a turn- firearms, further alarmed both the secular remain “the solid and cohesive block” on ing point. Ministers were not consulted. opposition and the army. which the state rests. In hindsight, it was a Several of Mursi’s own staff warned that Another wave of protests rolled over harbinger of military intervention. it would set him on a confrontation course Egypt starting on Jan. 25, the second an- With the exception of Nour, the liberal with civil society. Five senior advisers quit. niversary of the uprising that overthrew and secular opposition boycotted any con- But Mursi displayed the same determina- Mubarak, while the main cities in the Suez tact with Mursi and the Brotherhood’s po- tion and self-confidence that marked his Canal zone, where passions were running litical wing after the constitution episode. other key decisions. high over deaths in clashes at a soccer But the European Union, supported by “One thing we know about this presi- match, spun out of government control. the United States, launched a discreet dip- dent, he is as stubborn as hell,” said Gehad Mursi imposed a curfew on Port Said, lomatic effort to try to bring the two sides El-Haddad, a Brotherhood member whose to compromise on a national unity govern- father Essam El-Haddad, a British-trained ment. The aim was to trigger fresh parlia- Follow Reuters Special doctor, was Mursi’s politically moderate top Reports on Twitter: mentary elections and a loan agreement foreign policy adviser and is now in deten- @SpecialReports with the International Monetary Fund tion with him. (IMF) that could have unlocked stalled

SPECIAL REPORT 6 EGYPT How the Muslim Brotherhood lost Egypt

economic aid and investment. For months, EU diplomat Bernardino Egypt’s wheat problem: Leon shuttled between the leaders of the six-party opposition National Salvation how Mursi jeopardised Front (NSF) alliance, Mursi’s office and the Brotherhood’s political wing, while keeping in touch with the army. By April, Leon had pro- the bread supply duced a draft deal that would have required both Mursi and his opponents to compromise. The biggest mistake deposed Egyptian vital when Mursi, backed by the Islamist Mursi never explicitly embraced the EU President Mohamed Mursi made during his Muslim Brotherhood, took over as president initiative, submitted to him in an email on year in power was dramatically reducing in June 2012. April 11, although he never rejected it ei- wheat imports, according to Mohamed Abu Mursi appointed Bassem Ouda, a 43-year- ther. Events soon put a deal out of reach. Shadi, the country’s new minister of supplies. old engineer, as minister of supplies. Ouda, Haddad, one of the Brotherhood ne- Lack of money and a quixotic attempt who took office on January 6, said Egypt’s gotiators with Leon, suggested the leaders at making Egypt self-sufficient spurred $3 billion programme for subsidised bread of the NSF were too divided to deliver on the decline, say officials familiar with the would be his top priority. However, he and an agreement. Khaled Dawoud, the NSF’s matter. Mursi dreamt of making Egypt grow Mursi promptly began talking about Egypt spokesman, acknowledged the coalition was all its own wheat and allowed imported becoming self-sufficient by more than full of “big characters and big egos”, but said stocks to fall to precariously low levels. It doubling its wheat production to meet its they had held together when it mattered. hurt both the country’s wheat stocks and needs of over 18 million tonnes a year; at the Perhaps the main reason the deal foun- Mursi’s government. same time they made big reductions in wheat dered was that the Islamists considered the With a quarter of Egypt’s 84 million imports and began eating through stocks. NSF politically insignificant. “There are people living below the poverty line of $1.65 In May, Mursi was quoted during a only two players in this playground, the old a day, millions depend on subsidised bread festival to celebrate the harvest season at regime ... and the Muslim Brotherhood, that sells for less than 1 U.S. cent per loaf. a farm near the northern city of Alexandria and the rest just choose a camp. It is not a That supply relies on foreign wheat. as saying: “By God’s will, in two years we reality that everyone likes, but it is the real- The country is the world’s largest wheat will be achieving more than 80 percent ity, you can’t change that,” Haddad said. importer, bringing in about 10 million tonnes of our needs, and seek in four years not to When EU foreign policy chief Catherine a year, around half its annual consumption. import wheat.” Ashton returned to Cairo with Leon on Keeping the system running smoothly was It was a an ambitious target; critics called June 18-19, the situation had deteriorated. it foolhardy. “We found President Mursi far from real- “Many people were disconcerted and ity,” a member of Leon’s team told Reuters. unhappy with the government for making “The message of the visit was to tell him, statements that we would become self- ‘Mr President, you are running out of time. sufficient,” said Adel Beshai, professor of The country is running out of time’.” economics at Cairo’s American University. “Every villager knows we cannot become THE COST OF LIVING self-sufficient, any illiterate farmer could tell The Brotherhood had inherited a shattered you we could not be self-sufficient, so people economy from the military-led interim felt they were being lied to.” government. In the 17 months between While Egypt is one of the oldest Mubarak’s fall and Mursi’s inauguration, agricultural civilisations, once the granary foreign currency reserves crumpled from of the Roman Empire, it can no longer feed $36 billion to $15.5 billion – hardly enough its modern population, which is mostly to cover three months’ imports. Cairo owed SUPPLY PROBLEM: Imports of wheat, vital for crammed into the fertile valley and international energy companies about $8 the subsidised bread that many Egyptians rely delta, a narrow strip surrounded by huge billion in unpaid bills, prompting gas pro- on, dwindled under President Mohamed Mursi. areas of arid land. Egyptian agriculture is ducers to reduce shipments to Egypt, freeze REUTERS/AMR ABDALLAH DALSH Text continues next page

SPECIAL REPORT 7 EGYPT How the Muslim Brotherhood lost Egypt

Egypt’s wheat problem: how Mursi jeopardised the bread supply

From previous page almost entirely dependent on irrigation with more than 90 percent of the country desert. The U.S. Department of Agriculture estimated Egypt’s latest harvest at 8.5 million tonnes of wheat. The subsidised bread program alone requires around 9 million tonnes of wheat. Local wheat is low in gluten so it is mixed with foreign wheat in roughly equal parts to produce flour suitable for making bread. Much of what remains of the Egyptian crop is consumed on farms. A lack of funds also played a part in PANIC BUYING: As unrest spread, Egyptians stocked up on petrol and diesel, exacerbating the Egypt’s failure to import wheat, according country’s problems with energy supplies. REUTERS/MOHAMED ABD EL GHANY to a government source familiar with the matter. As it faced economic crisis, the Islamist government began exploring investment and slow domestic gas output. both more sympathetic to the Brotherhood. alternative methods of procuring wheat. Tourists and investors were scared away by The inefficient system of subsidising “They were looking at barter deals for images of violent street protests and political bread, cooking gas and diesel fuel became oranges and potatoes,” said a second source instability. The military council had vetoed a an ever greater burden on government fi- with experience of the inner workings of first attempt after the revolution to agree a nances, accounting for almost the entire GASC, the state grain buying agency, adding loan with the International Monetary Fund, budget deficit. There were shortages of that Russia imports a lot of Egyptian potatoes wanting to avoid piling debt on the coun- diesel, with long lines at gas stations, some- and oranges and is a key supplier of wheat. try or compromising national sovereignty. times causing fights at the pumps. Power The result was inaction. “This was an Insiders in the early interim governments cuts worsened in the run-up to mass pro- extension of what was happening in the rest said the generals were also scared of trigger- tests on June 30, leaving many households of the ministries and the rest of the country,” ing riots if they accepted IMF demands to without air conditioning for hours as peak said the government source. curb food and fuel subsidies. summer heat approached. As the Egyptian On July 10, days after Mursi was ousted A former senior finance ministry official pound tumbled in value, inflation hit 9.75 and Ouda resigned, Ouda said government said Mursi’s constitutional decree effectively percent in June. stocks were 3.5 million tonnes, including ruined any further prospect of an IMF loan. Feeling increasingly besieged, the 500,000 tonnes of foreign wheat. This “What happened with the constitution Brotherhood accused saboteurs loyal to compared with 4.9 million tonnes on July showed the nation was split,” said the offi- the former regime of manipulating fuel 1 last year, including 1.2 million tonnes of cial. The risk of instability deterred the IMF. and electricity supplies. Many Egyptians imported wheat. Financial support from Saudi Arabia blamed government incompetence. The government source said that the risk and the United Arab Emirates dried up be- “The biggest form of obstruction was of shortages could be reversed with proper cause of their hostility to the Brotherhood, the failure of the Ministry of the Interior to management: “All you need is speedy decisions seen as a threat to Arab monarchies. Mursi do its job. Imagine a state with no security,” to enter the market at the right times.” became dependent on the gas-rich emirate said Bassem Ouda, 43, minister of supply for By Sarah McFarlane in Cairo of Qatar, which provided some $8 billion the last six months and a rising star in the in loans, grants and deposits under his rule, Brotherhood. Interviewed at the pro-Mursi Additional reporting by Maha El Dahan in with lesser sums from Turkey and Libya, sit-in, he accused the ministry of directing Abu Dhabi

SPECIAL REPORT 8 EGYPT How the Muslim Brotherhood lost Egypt

NO POWER TO THE PEOPLE: Mostafa Khaled, a student, working by candelight in May in Touk, north of Cairo, during one of the electricity cuts that grew more frequent as Egypt failed to import enough fuel for power stations. REUTERS/AMR ABDALLAH DALSH

criminal gangs that obstructed fuel distribu- people, we have to support them.” and savvy use of social media. tion in the days that led up to June 30. By June 30, the organisers claimed to Brotherhood officials are convinced that Economic grievances fuelled public have 22 million signatures with addresses Tamarud was bankrolled and abetted by Gulf support for a petition by the “Tamarud and national identity numbers. There was money, exiled Egyptian oligarchs and the – Rebel!” youth movement demanding no independent verification, but the move- army. The reality appears to have been more Mursi’s resignation and an early presiden- ment had clearly hit a national nerve. spontaneous and less conspiratorial, though tial election. Launched on May 1 by three Mahmoud Badr, 28, the young journalist some unfamiliar faces with suspected links activists in their twenties armed with little who co-founded the group, told Reuters to the security services began to appear at more than mobile phones and laptops, the that Tamarud had succeeded where others Tamarud campaign offices in the final days. petitions spread like wildfire. failed by dint of shoe-leather campaigning Billionaire businessman Naguib Sawiris, Khaled Dawoud, the NSF spokesman, who left Egypt shortly after Mursi’s elec- recalled attending an early Tamarud news tion, told Reuters he threw his full support conference on May 12. “They held it in behind the youth movement. some miserable office ... you couldn’t even “The Free Egyptians party, the party breathe in that building,” he said. “And then billion that I founded, used all its branches across they announced, boom, inside that room, $12 Egypt to (gather) signatures for Tamarud,” Amount of aid for Egypt offered that in a matter of days, weeks, we gathered Sawiris said in a telephone interview from two million signatures – people saying we by Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and the his yacht off the Greek island of Mykonos. want early president elections.” United Arab Emirates after the fall “Also the TV station that I own and the He said that when he went to his next of President Mohamed Mursi newspaper, Al-Masry Al-Youm, were sup- NSF meeting, he told his leaders: “OK, porting the Tamarud movement with their we can go on the record, these are brilliant Source: government announcements media ... It is fair to say that I encouraged

SPECIAL REPORT 9 EGYPT How the Muslim Brotherhood lost Egypt

all the affiliations I have to support the movement. But there was no financing, be- cause there was no need.”

ANOTHER FLAWED TRANSITION Exactly when the military decided it would overthrow Mursi is disputed. Senior of- ficers said that General Sisi, up until the last day of his ultimatum for the president to accept a power-sharing agreement, con- tinued to hope Mursi would agree to call a referendum on the continuation of his rule. That would have given a constitutional fig- leaf to his departure. A senior army colonel said the military had acted to save the country from civil MOVING ON: Outside Cairo University a soldier asks a supporter of deposed President Mohamed war. “This has nothing to do with the army Mursi to take his protest elsewhere the day after the military toppled the elected leader. wanting power, but with the people want- REUTERS/ASMAA WAGUIH ing the army to be involved. They trust us, you know, because we will always be with the Egyptian people, not with a person or a They trust us, you know, Brotherhood, said Haddad. “This is an or- regime,” he said. because we will always be with ganisation built for 85 years under oppres- The military now faces the same co- the Egyptian people, not with a sive regimes. That is our comfort zone. They nundrum it failed to solve in 2011-12: person or a regime. just pushed us back into it. how to make Egypt work without taking “This is a stand-off. Either we force the responsibility, and hence unpopularity, for Colonel Ahmed Ali military’s head back into their barracks, and painful reforms? spokesman for Egypt’s army they have to be taught a lesson not to pop In their first temporary stint in power, their head back into the political scene ever the generals presided over a period of eco- army vacillates between saying it wants to again, or we die trying.” nomic stagnation, unabated human rights include the Brotherhood in a new political abuses and scant reform. They seemed al- process and cracking down on its leaders, Additional reporting by Yasmine Saleh in most relieved to hand the poison chalice to accused of inciting violence and betraying Cairo; writing by Paul Taylor; editing by Mursi upon his election, even though they the country. Mursi, his closest aides and the Richard Woods did not trust the Brotherhood with all the Brotherhood’s most powerful politicians levers of power. are being held in extra-judicial custody by FOR MORE INFORMATION This time, it’s different, said the colonel. the army at undisclosed locations. Tom Perry, Chief Correspondent, Egypt The army will not govern and there will be Those leaders still at large say they have [email protected] a short, sharp transition to elected civilian begun a long march of non-violent resis- Edmund Blair, Bureau Chief, East Africa government. Yet despite a sudden infusion tance until the Brotherhood prevails over [email protected] of $12 billion in Saudi, UAE and Kuwaiti the army. But a radical fringe of Islamists Paul Taylor, European Affairs Editor aid, the starting conditions look worse than may revert to armed struggle and assassi- [email protected] for the previous period of military rule. nations. First signs are visible in the lawless Richard Woods, Senior Editor, Enterprise The Brotherhood is entrenched in sul- . Others may go back to a and Investigations, EMEA len opposition, determined to prevent the strategy of Islamising Egyptian society from [email protected] new technocratic government succeeding the grassroots up, rather than the top down. Michael Williams, Global Enterprise Editor where its own administration failed. The Repression will only strengthen the [email protected]

© Thomson Reuters 2013. All rights reserved. 47001073 0310. Republication or redistribution of Thomson Reuters content, including by framing or similar means, is prohibited without the prior written consent of Thomson Reuters. ‘Thomson Reuters’ and the Thomson Reuters logo are registered trademarks and trademarks of Thomson reuters and its affiliated companies.

SPECIAL REPORT 10