DOCSLIB.ORG

Statistical Appendix

Total Page：16

File Type：pdf, Size：1020Kb

Download full-text PDF Read full-text
Statistical Appendix Statistical Appendix ESTIMATES OF WAR-RELATED DEATHS IN ENGLAND AND WALES, 1914-1918, USING DIFFERENT LIFE TABLES The abridged life tables, reflecting the mortality experience of the working-class population insured by the Prudential Life Assurance Company and published in the Journal of the Institute of Actuaries in 1918 (Table A-1) permit us to estimate the level and age- structure of male mortality in England and Wales had there been no war in 1914. Two alternative approaches were adopted initially. The first was to assume that the life table mortality rates (qx) for 1913 remained constant throughout the subsequent five years.1 This was the basis of Estimate A. The second was to assume that in the absence of war the pre-war rate of mortality decline would have continued unabated. This was the basis of Estimate B. In both estimates, abridged life tables for 1913-18 were con­ structed on the basis of the qx values given in Table A-1. Mid-year populations at ages 16-60 for 1912-18 were calculated by multi­ plying the 1911 male census population of England and Wales by survival ratios derived from the Prudential life table for 1913. Once age-specific death rates (Mx) were derived from mortality rates, through the equation Mx = 2qx/ (2 — qx), we obtained the age structure of deaths by multiplying Mx for each year and age by the appropriate mid-year populations. The results may be found in tables A-2 and A-3, which describe two hypothetical estimates of male mortality in England and Wales for the years 1914-18. In Estimate A, we assumed that qx rates for 1914-18 were identical to those of 1913. It is essential, therefore, to note that the hypothetical age structure of male mortality in Estimate A is not strictly speaking a full or realistic counterfactual picture of what would have happened had there been no war. Such a picture 306 APPENDIX 307 TABLE A-1 RATES OF MORTALITY AMONG MALE INDUSTRIAL POLICYHOLDERS IN THE PRUDENTIAL ASSURANCE COMPANY, 1913, 1915, 1916, 1917 English Life Prudential experience Age No. 8 1913 1915 1916 1917 16 0.00259 0.00290 0.00467 0.00404 0.00374 17 0.00279 0.00317 0.00790 0.00840 0.00483 18 0.00302 0.00379 0.01386 0.01856 0.01283 19 0.00326 0.00372 0.01845 0.03201 0.03834 20 0.00348 0.00397 0.02008 0.03731 0.04742 21 0.00366 0.00386 0.01838 0.03772 0.04559 22 0.00378 0.00386 0.01695 0.03460 0.04394 23 0.00386 0.00377 0.01665 0.03124 0.04063 24 0.00392 0.00399 0.01534 0.02805 0.03769 25 0.00400 0.00441 0.01376 0.02572 0.03507 26 0.00411 0.00442 0.01340 0.02379 0.03248 27 0.00425 0.00451 0.01311 0.02192 0.03014 28 0.00440 0.00475 0.01199 0.02098 0.02886 29 0.00458 0.00532 0.01246 0.02001 0.02794 30 0.00478 0.00499 0.01168 0.01915 0.02601 31 0.00502 0.00562 0.01182 0.01773 0.02501 32 0.00528 0.00520 0.01177 0.01675 0.02304 33 0.00558 0.00605 0.01225 0.01576 0.02265 34 0.00590 0.00594 0.01145 0.01565 0.02194 35 0.00624 0.00642 0.01118 0.01488 0.02097 36 0.00659 0.00667 0.01087 0.01440 0.01977 37 0.00695 0.00714 0.01069 0.01369 0.01816 38 0.00731 0.00742 0.01065 0.01286 0.01744 39 0.00769 0.00811 0.01130 0.01216 0.01588 40 0.00811 0.00798 0.01119 0.01152 0.01452 41 0.00858 0.00902 0.01094 0.01140 0.01286 42 0.00909 0.00908 0.01137 0.01099 0.01159 43 0.00964 0.01005 0.01123 0.01065 0.01111 44 0.01024 0.01063 0.01169 0.01173 0.01043 45 0.01089 0.01121 0.01258 0.01130 0.01154 46 0.01158 0.01184 0.01288 0.01253 0.01236 47 0.01231 0.01308 0.01438 0.01233 0.01205 48 0.01308 0.01391 0.01469 0.01316 0.01290 49 0.01391 0.01520 0.01660 0.01479 0.01427 50 0.01482 0.01609 0.01781 0.01551 0.01413 51 0.01586 0.01717 0.01831 0.01643 0.01533 52 0.01701 0.01877 0.01873 0.01710 0.01637 53 0.01827 0.01861 0.02107 0.01898 0.01854 54 0.01963 0.02269 0.02255 0.02008 0.01987 55 0.02111 0.02423 0.02372 0.02234 0.02283 56 0.02272 0.02637 0.02642 0.02397 0.02318 57 0.02444 0.02852 0.02869 0.02629 0.02558 58 0.02629 0.02991 0.03191 0.02786 0.02731 59 0.02827 0.03307 0.03559 0.03075 0.02996 60 0.03042 0.03462 0.03802 0.03268 0.03291 SOURCE: J. Burn, 'Industrial Mortality in 1915-1917', Journal of the Institute of Actuaries, LI (1918), 69-71. 308 PQ a 0) o 1/3 o Cd o cd Tto^or-iocnaNr^-oovocnasTj-oooN^toa\ <u <D <u a o o 3 W C <u -u « T-M in rn ^f en rf o in r^ rn rn -^t t-^ ^ CN in vo CN CN" in vo" o"'o" rt T-T r-" rn o> vo" -<d-" T-T O" O>" I>" vo" in T-HTfTfTtTfmmCNCN(N<N<Nr-lT-lT-H^H <N rH T-HrNOin-^-T-ir^rH\oinoo Tf (N 00 £ rH^ 4^L (11 (11 r- vo 0)NrO\00\0\0\OhNO CN Tf 00 cd t « o ^ vomr^oscNcNvoinvoinoo\vovot>-i>-cN,<3- maN^mT-HaNTj-rHrNcNaNinoininorHvo .§ O Cd *5 ^ cNvor--vovovoinTt-enmmcNcNCNcNrH w fNONrHfNmOOONONOOm^tOrHOO VO CN 00 CN voTtvovoinocN(Nvooor-"^-rH^- v^o, wo CvN, in 00N™ ^ O,— , __i <3 ^ y^ ^ Q^ oq^ oo o^ CN t> -^" t~^ r-~ ^ en 2 3 S 2 vo O ^r" o" t> CN" oo" in rn r-T oC oo" vo" in" ^" iL w a ^^frCnmCNCNCNCNrHrHT—IrHrH c/5 <" Tj-ONOoochONCNr--in^-oorti>a\oorH(Nvo mmvominr-rHiocNvoooNminmvomin °\ ^ ^ ^ ^ "^ °\ T~l °i ^°L ^ ^ r"t ^ ^ ^ '"I °.s 3 oc\£ ^ vo" o" ci vo" m" o" vo" cn" oC in" CN" O" oo" r-" in" -<d-" m" m" rHCN^t-ininrj-Tt-mmmcncNcNcNCNCNCN o <^ CO CJ PQ oo >* mm^-rHrHvomovomoincnTt vo m os -H> si OX) a V3 o>oovoooocnoor-vor-cncn^i-^ CN CN OS 13 I>rHrHONmOOOmOCNrHrHrnO CN in r- T3 -c 2 CN "ed 'S VH Ti-mvoinvovoinininvovovovor^vor--vor^ 3 <D o 2 6 J&s 3W <NOO\io(OHnoohHt^\OH^a\^i' C <D <u •Si i>ONO\r-or^oocNinoocnincNrHr^-inoo <D cd o^ Tt "^ CN vq^ cn CN^ o^ CN I> VO VO^ O^ I> H o^ rt r^ T3 -O5 in" m" vo" vo" vo" vo" vo" vo" vo" vo" vo vo" vo t^" t^-" oo" r-^ oo" 3 B CtM* >a> JS <D OD < o oo r- 00 CN CN 00 rH'«^-r--ONOr^oOrHcx)oO"^-vocNinrni>ONinoO'rtrvo oo in H q oo t oo ONONOSCNin^rHTtvOOsONCNVOvocN^cnrnOOVOC....._. ., . ._ # ^ N O CN O CN rH o m 00 OSVO^rHONr^VOmmrHrHrH^H | ^vor-rHoor^oooorfcNr-incNvocNoor^OrnoorncNcnrnrt^fOOs o^h^inHmTtcn^HooMXiTi-io^rOM^oo^TfiovOTthOTt- in H t*-^ oo^ in^ o H o rn o^ rn TT_ in vo in oo m TT rn in "<d- rf CN CN ^ t>- c-» rt" m" H os oo" t-»" vo" ^f m" H r-T TH" T-H I H I II oo" m CN CN o CN m r- Tf r- ^ vo m CN en o m I I I I I I III III I 2 inoooooomvoinrHcNCNOsOr^or^rHrn ^-r-^ocNomvoTj-mrH osvovomcNrHTtmrfor--^tvooNinvoo N^t-^ooN'sfcNmrHin^; VOCN00^ONVO^rHCNrH^C^,^-invOCNcn | rt nrH\OTtoomrHinvo i O cn CN o" oo" i> vo" in" m" CN" rn" II I I H ^ | rH"^-T I I m" •III £ "3-rHOsvovorHininvooommm ininooorHoinm^t-oovcNvo'<si< - Hn(NOONMOHO\hhhN vo^j-moNO" d-ooinooovor-ooo OCNONTtcNvocN^-rfrHVOCNrn OcnovOrHinONOOsvomooosr- ooc^voin^rnrncNcnrnrnrnri-'Hr"<^-invovooor--oooooNOscN i^incNinoo^r^r^cNvovooOrHoocnt^rnoo^cNooT^c^rninoovo^ rHinvornoooint^invoooos^vorHTfONt^osin-^rHin-'d-cNOsoS rf <o H vq^ r^ in o cn H CN CN r-^ r-^ ^t in rt rf CN CN O^ ^ <o cn^ o\ H VO CN ^ r-" oo" oo" oo" oo" oC OC o" o" H T-H H rH CN" CN" m" m" Tf" m" TJ-" r--" oo" oo" oo" oo" o\ as ^ os cn rn oo cn in rHVOVO^fOO--- r^vo^d-TtTf^cNcNoocnoscNooosTtos ooooososOsoosrHrHCNCNcNCNcncnTj-TrinvomooooososoooocnosOinvoinoscNOrHrH s .2 o TABLE A-3 ESTIMATES OF MALE MORTALITY, ENGLAND AND WALES, 1914-18, AT AGES 16-60, BY AGE COHORT Age Prudential Prudential Actual War-related War-related Estimate A: Estimate B: group hypothetical hypothetical working-class deaths deaths percent percent Estimate A: Estimate B: war Estimate A Estimate B increase (+) increase (+) using using estimate or or constant declining decrease (-) decrease (-) mortality mortality due to war due to war rates rates (4) (5) (D (2) (3) (3)-(l) (3)-(2) (4)/(l) (5)/(2) 16-19 23,337 22,121 86,671 63,334 64,550 271.40 291.80 20-24 31,545 29,556 233,432 201,887 203,876 639.99 689.80 25-29 34,706 31,925 154,362 119,656 122,437 344.76 383.51 30-34 39,658 35,379 118,601 78,943 83,222 199.05 235.23 35-39 47,680 43,144 93,493 45,813 50,349 96.09 116.70 40-44 56,668 52,138 68,967 12,299 16,829 21.70 32.28 45-49 66,621 61,967 67,120 499 5,153 0.75 8.32 50-54 80,186 75,465 77,354 -2,832 1,889 -3.53 2.50 55-60 117,342 112,340 112,784 -4,558 444 -3.88 0.40 Total 497,743 464,035 1,012,784 515,041 548,749 103.48 118.26 SOURCE: See Table A-1.
Load more

Recommended publications
  • F:\RSS\Me\Society's Mathemarica
    School of Social Sciences Economics Division University of Southampton Southampton SO17 1BJ, UK Discussion Papers in Economics and Econometrics Mathematics in the Statistical Society 1883-1933 John Aldrich No. 0919 This paper is available on our website http://www.southampton.ac.uk/socsci/economics/research/papers ISSN 0966-4246 Mathematics in the Statistical Society 1883-1933* John Aldrich Economics Division School of Social Sciences University of Southampton Southampton SO17 1BJ UK e-mail: [email protected] Abstract This paper considers the place of mathematical methods based on probability in the work of the London (later Royal) Statistical Society in the half-century 1883-1933. The end-points are chosen because mathematical work started to appear regularly in 1883 and 1933 saw the formation of the Industrial and Agricultural Research Section– to promote these particular applications was to encourage mathematical methods. In the period three movements are distinguished, associated with major figures in the history of mathematical statistics–F. Y. Edgeworth, Karl Pearson and R. A. Fisher. The first two movements were based on the conviction that the use of mathematical methods could transform the way the Society did its traditional work in economic/social statistics while the third movement was associated with an enlargement in the scope of statistics. The study tries to synthesise research based on the Society’s archives with research on the wider history of statistics. Key names : Arthur Bowley, F. Y. Edgeworth, R. A. Fisher, Egon Pearson, Karl Pearson, Ernest Snow, John Wishart, G. Udny Yule. Keywords : History of Statistics, Royal Statistical Society, mathematical methods.
    [Show full text]
  • Orme) Wilberforce (Albert) Raymond Blackburn (Alexander Bell
    Copyrights sought (Albert) Basil (Orme) Wilberforce (Albert) Raymond Blackburn (Alexander Bell) Filson Young (Alexander) Forbes Hendry (Alexander) Frederick Whyte (Alfred Hubert) Roy Fedden (Alfred) Alistair Cooke (Alfred) Guy Garrod (Alfred) James Hawkey (Archibald) Berkeley Milne (Archibald) David Stirling (Archibald) Havergal Downes-Shaw (Arthur) Berriedale Keith (Arthur) Beverley Baxter (Arthur) Cecil Tyrrell Beck (Arthur) Clive Morrison-Bell (Arthur) Hugh (Elsdale) Molson (Arthur) Mervyn Stockwood (Arthur) Paul Boissier, Harrow Heraldry Committee & Harrow School (Arthur) Trevor Dawson (Arwyn) Lynn Ungoed-Thomas (Basil Arthur) John Peto (Basil) Kingsley Martin (Basil) Kingsley Martin (Basil) Kingsley Martin & New Statesman (Borlasse Elward) Wyndham Childs (Cecil Frederick) Nevil Macready (Cecil George) Graham Hayman (Charles Edward) Howard Vincent (Charles Henry) Collins Baker (Charles) Alexander Harris (Charles) Cyril Clarke (Charles) Edgar Wood (Charles) Edward Troup (Charles) Frederick (Howard) Gough (Charles) Michael Duff (Charles) Philip Fothergill (Charles) Philip Fothergill, Liberal National Organisation, N-E Warwickshire Liberal Association & Rt Hon Charles Albert McCurdy (Charles) Vernon (Oldfield) Bartlett (Charles) Vernon (Oldfield) Bartlett & World Review of Reviews (Claude) Nigel (Byam) Davies (Claude) Nigel (Byam) Davies (Colin) Mark Patrick (Crwfurd) Wilfrid Griffin Eady (Cyril) Berkeley Ormerod (Cyril) Desmond Keeling (Cyril) George Toogood (Cyril) Kenneth Bird (David) Euan Wallace (Davies) Evan Bedford (Denis Duncan)
    [Show full text]
  • Major GREENWOOD (1880 – 1949)
    Major GREENWOOD (1880 – 1949) Publications Three previous publications have included lists of the books, reports, and papers written by, or with contributions by, Major Greenwood; none is complete. With the advantage of electronic searches we have therefore attempted to find all his published works and checked them back to source. Since both father (1854 - 1917) and son (1880 - 1949) had identical names, and both were medically qualified with careers that overlapped, it is sometimes difficult to distinguish the publications of one from those of the other except by their appendages (snr. or jun.), their qualifications (the former also had a degree in law), their locations, their dates, or the subjects they addressed. We have listed the books, reports, and papers separately, and among the last included letters, reviews, and obituaries. Excluding the letters would deprive interested scientists of the opportunity of appreciating Greenwood’s great knowledge of the classics, of history, and of medical science, as well as his scathing demolition of imprecision and poor numerical argument. The two publications in red we have been unable to verify against a source. Books Greenwood M Physiology of the Special Senses (vii+239 pages) London: Edward Arnold, 1910. Collis EL, Greenwood M The Health of the Industrial Worker (xix+450pages) London: J & A Churchill, 1921. Greenwood M Epidemiology, Historical and Experimental: the Herter Lectures for 1931 (x+80 pages) Baltimore: Johns Hopkins Press, and London: Oxford University Press, 1932. Greenwood M Epidemics and Crowd-Diseases: an Introduction to the Study of Epidemiology (409 pages) London: Williams and Norgate, 1933 (reprinted 1935). Greenwood M The Medical Dictator and Other Biographical Studies (213 pages) London: Williams and Norgate, 1936; London: Keynes Press, 1986; revised, Keynes Press, 1987.
    [Show full text]
  • William Farr on the Cholera: the Sanitarian's Disease Theory And
    William Farr on the Cholera: The Sanitarian's Disease Theory and. the Statistician's Method JOHN M. EYLER N 1852 the British medical press heralded a major work on England's second epidemic of cholera. The Lancet called it 'one of the most remarkable productions of type Downloaded from and pen in any age or country,' a credit to the profes- sion.1 Even in the vastly different medical world of 1890, Sir John Simon would remember the report as 'a classic jhmas.oxfordjournals.org in medical statistics: admirable for the skill with which the then recent ravages of the disease in England were quantitatively analyzed ... and for the literary power with which the story of the disease, so far as then known, 2 was told.' The work was William Farr's Report on the Mortality of Cholera at McGill University Libraries on September 18, 2011 in England, 1848-49,3 which had been prepared in England's great center for vital statistics, the General Register Office. In reading the report and its sequels for the 1853-544 and the 1866 epidemics5 one is struck by their comprehensiveness and exhaustive numerical analysis, but even more by the realization that the reports are intimately bound up with a theory of communicable disease and an attitude toward epidemiological research 1. Lancet, 1852, 1, 268. 2. John Simon, English sanitary institutions, reviewed in their course of development, and in some of their political and social relations (London, Paris, New York, and Melbourne, 1890), p. 240. 3. [William Farr], Report on the mortality of cholera in England, 1848-49 (London, 1852).
    [Show full text]
  • Major Greenwood and Clinical Trials
    From the James Lind Library Journal of the Royal Society of Medicine; 2017, Vol. 110(11) 452–457 DOI: 10.1177/0141076817736028 Major Greenwood and clinical trials Vern Farewell1 and Tony Johnson2 1MRC Biostatistics Unit, University of Cambridge, Cambridge CB2 0SR, UK 2MRC Clinical Trials Unit, Aviation House, London WC2B 6NH, UK Corresponding author: Vern Farewell. Email: [email protected] Introduction References to Greenwood’s work in clinical trials Major Greenwood (1880–1949) was the foremost medical statistician in the UK during the first Greenwood was a renowned epidemiologist who is not half of the 20th century.1 The son of a general usually associated with randomised clinical trials. At medical practitioner, he obtained a medical degree the time of his retirement, randomised clinical trials from the London Hospital in 1904 and then stu- were still under development and Peter Armitage has died statistics under Karl Pearson at University no recollection of Greenwood commenting on trials College London. Instead of general practice, he when Greenwood visited the London School of opted to pursue a career in medical research, first Hygiene and Tropical Medicine during his retirement under the physiologist Leonard Hill at the London (personal communication). Indeed, randomised clin- Hospital, where, in 1908, he set up the first depart- ical trials were a major component of the work of ment of medical statistics and gave the first lecture Austin Bradford Hill,5 who began his employment in course in the subject in 1909. He established the Greenwood’s department in 1923 and succeeded him second department of medical statistics in 1910 at as professor at the London School of Hygiene and the Lister Institute and established the second Tropical Medicine and director of the Medical course of lectures there.
    [Show full text]
  • Design and Analysis Issues in Family-Based Association
    Emerging Challenges in Statistical Genetics Duncan Thomas University of Southern California Human Genetics in the Big Science Era • “Big Data” – large n and large p and complexity e.g., NIH Biomedical Big Data Initiative (RFA-HG-14-020) • Large n: challenge for computation and data storage, but not conceptual • Large p: many data mining approaches, few grounded in statistical principles • Sparse penalized regression & hierarchical modeling from Bayesian and frequentist perspectives • Emerging –omics challenges Genetics: from Fisher to GWAS • Population genetics & heritability – Mendel / Fisher / Haldane / Wright • Segregation analysis – Likelihoods on complex pedigrees by peeling: Elston & Stewart • Linkage analysis (PCR / microsats / SNPs) – Multipoint: Lander & Green – MCMC: Thompson • Association – TDT, FBATs, etc: Spielman, Laird – GWAS: Risch & Merikangas – Post-GWAS: pathway mining, next-gen sequencing Association: From hypothesis-driven to agnostic research Candidate pathways Candidate Hierarchical GWAS genes models (ht-SNPs) Ontologies Pathway mining MRC BSU SGX Plans Objectives: – Integrating structural and prior information for sparse regression analysis of high dimensional data – Clustering models for exposure-disease associations – Integrating network information – Penalised regression and Bayesian variable selection – Mechanistic models of cellular processes – Statistical computing for large scale genomics data Targeted areas of impact : – gene regulation and immunological response – biomarker based signatures – targeting
    [Show full text]
  • “I Didn't Want to Be a Statistician”
    “I didn’t want to be a statistician” Making mathematical statisticians in the Second World War John Aldrich University of Southampton Seminar Durham January 2018 1 The individual before the event “I was interested in mathematics. I wanted to be either an analyst or possibly a mathematical physicist—I didn't want to be a statistician.” David Cox Interview 1994 A generation after the event “There was a large increase in the number of people who knew that statistics was an interesting subject. They had been given an excellent training free of charge.” George Barnard & Robin Plackett (1985) Statistics in the United Kingdom,1939-45 Cox, Barnard and Plackett were among the people who became mathematical statisticians 2 The people, born around 1920 and with a ‘name’ by the 60s : the 20/60s Robin Plackett was typical Born in 1920 Cambridge mathematics undergraduate 1940 Off the conveyor belt from Cambridge mathematics to statistics war-work at SR17 1942 Lecturer in Statistics at Liverpool in 1946 Professor of Statistics King’s College, Durham 1962 3 Some 20/60s (in 1968) 4 “It is interesting to note that a number of these men now hold statistical chairs in this country”* Egon Pearson on SR17 in 1973 In 1939 he was the UK’s only professor of statistics * Including Dennis Lindley Aberystwyth 1960 Peter Armitage School of Hygiene 1961 Robin Plackett Durham/Newcastle 1962 H. J. Godwin Royal Holloway 1968 Maurice Walker Sheffield 1972 5 SR 17 women in statistical chairs? None Few women in SR17: small skills pool—in 30s Cambridge graduated 5 times more men than women Post-war careers—not in statistics or universities Christine Stockman (1923-2015) Maths at Cambridge.
    [Show full text]
  • The Development of the MRC Statistical Unit, 1911-1948
    Medical History, 2000, 44: 323-340 Medical Statistics, Patronage and the State: The Development of the MRC Statistical Unit, 1911-1948 EDWARD HIGGS* The development of medical statistics based on the concepts of probability and error-theory developed by Francis Galton, Karl Pearson, George Udny Yule, R A Fisher, and their colleagues, has had a profound impact on medical science in the present century. This has been associated especially with the activities of the Medical Research Council (MRC) Statistical Unit at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine (LSHTM). It was here in 1946 that the world's first statistically rigorous clinical trial was undertaken, and where in the 1950s Austin Bradford Hill and Richard Doll revealed a statistical relationship between smoking and lung- cancer. But how and why was this key institution founded, and why were its methods probabilistic?' One might assume that the sheer brilliance of the work produced by Pearson and his statistical followers was sufficient to win over the medical profession, and to attract funding for the MRC Unit. However, one might question the extent to which an association with Pearson, and with the mathematical technicalities of his statistics, immediately endeared the fledgling discipline of biostatistics to the medical com- munity. As J Rosser Matthews has shown recently, Pearsonian statistics were only haltingly accepted by medical scientists in Britain in the 1920s and 1930s, and were little understood by medical practitioners.2 How then was such a university-based infrastructure for medical statistics established? Ultimately, of course, the Statistical * Edward Higgs, DPhil, Department of History, the statistical work on smoking, see V Berridge, University of Essex, Wivenhoe Park, Colchester, 'Science and policy: the case of postwar British C04 3SQ.
    [Show full text]
  • 2017 Conference Abstracts Booklet
    RSS International Conference Abstracts booklet GLA SG OW 4 – 7 September 2017 www.rss.org.uk/conference2017 Abstracts are ordered in date, time and session order 1 Plenary 1 - 36th Fisher Memorial Lecture Monday 4 September – 6pm-7pm And thereby hangs a tail: the strange history of P-values Stephen Senn Head of the Competence Center for Methodology and Statistics, Luxembourg Institute of Health RA Fisher is usually given the honour and now (increasingly) the shame of having invented P-values. A common theme of criticism is that P-values give significance too easily and that their cult is responsible for a replication crisis enveloping science. However, tail area probabilities were calculated long before Fisher and naively and commonly given an inverse interpretation. It was Fisher who pointed out that this interpretation was unsafe and who stressed an alternative and more conservative one, although even this can be found in earlier writings such as those of Karl Pearson. I shall consider the history of P-values and inverse probability from Bayes to Fisher, passing by Laplace, Pearson, Student, Broad and Jeffreys, and show that the problem is not so much an incompatibility of frequentist and Bayesian inference, as an incompatibility of two approaches to dealing with null hypotheses. Both these approaches are encountered in Bayesian analyses, with the older of the two much more common. They lead to very different inferences in the Bayesian framework but much lesser differences in the frequentist one. I conclude that the real problem is that there is an unresolved difference of practice in Bayesian approaches.
    [Show full text]
  • The Economist
    Statisticians in World War II: They also served | The Economist http://www.economist.com/news/christmas-specials/21636589-how-statis... More from The Economist My Subscription Subscribe Log in or register World politics Business & finance Economics Science & technology Culture Blogs Debate Multimedia Print edition Statisticians in World War II Comment (3) Timekeeper reading list They also served E-mail Reprints & permissions Print How statisticians changed the war, and the war changed statistics Dec 20th 2014 | From the print edition Like 3.6k Tweet 337 Advertisement “I BECAME a statistician because I was put in prison,” says Claus Moser. Aged 92, he can look back on a distinguished career in academia and civil service: he was head of the British government statistical service in 1967-78 and made a life peer in 2001. But Follow The Economist statistics had never been his plan. He had dreamed of being a pianist and when he realised that was unrealistic, accepted his father’s advice that he should study commerce and manage hotels. (“He thought I would like the music in the lobby.”) War threw these plans into disarray. In 1936, aged 13, he fled Germany with his family; four years later the prime minister, Winston Churchill, decided that because some of the refugees might be spies, he would “collar the lot”. Lord Moser was interned in Huyton, Latest updates » near Liverpool (pictured above). “If you lock up 5,000 Jews we will find something to do,” The Economist explains : Where Islamic he says now. Someone set up a café; there were lectures and concerts—and a statistical State gets its money office run by a mathematician named Landau.
    [Show full text]
  • A Bayesian Semiparametric Joint Model for Longitudinal and Survival Data (Grant Title: Smart Early Screening for Autism and Communication Disorders in Primary Care)
    Florida State University Libraries Electronic Theses, Treatises and Dissertations The Graduate School 2019 A Bayesian Semiparametric Joint Model fPeongrp eLngo Wnangg itudinal and Survival Data Follow this and additional works at the DigiNole: FSU's Digital Repository. For more information, please contact [email protected] FLORIDA STATE UNIVERSITY COLLEGE OF ARTS AND SCIENCES A BAYESIAN SEMIPARAMETRIC JOINT MODEL FOR LONGITUDINAL AND SURVIVAL DATA By PENGPENG WANG A Dissertation submitted to the Department of Statistics in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy 2019 Copyright c 2019 Pengpeng Wang. All Rights Reserved. Pengpeng Wang defended this dissertation on April 16, 2019. The members of the supervisory committee were: Elizabeth H. Slate Professor Co-Directing Dissertation Jonathan R. Bradley Professor Co-Directing Dissertation Amy M. Wetherby University Representative Lifeng Lin Committee Member The Graduate School has verified and approved the above-named committee members, and certifies that the dissertation has been approved in accordance with university requirements. ii ACKNOWLEDGMENTS First of all, I would like to express my sincere gratitude to my major advisor Dr. Elizabeth H. Slate for the continuous support of my PhD study and related research, for her motivation, patience, and immense knowledge. Her guidance and encouragement helped me in all the time of my research. Her elegant and well-organized personality has a great impact on my life. I am very grateful to have her as my advisor and she will always be a role model in my life. I would like to thank my co-advisor Dr. Jonathan R. Bradley for sharing his research idea and expertise so willingly, for his insightful comments and encouragement.
    [Show full text]
  • UC GAIA Intmann CS5.5-Text.Indd
    A Problem of Great Importance The Berkeley SerieS in BriTiSh STudieS Mark Bevir and James Vernon, University of California, Berkeley, editors 1. The Peculiarities of Liberal Modernity in Imperial Britain, edited by Simon Gunn and James Vernon 2. Dilemmas of Decline: British Intellectuals and World Politics, 1945– 1975, by Ian Hall 3. The Savage Visit: New World People and Popular Imperial Culture in Britain, 1710– 1795, by Kate Fullagar 4. The Afterlife of Empire, by Jordanna Bailkin 5. Smyrna’s Ashes: Humanitarianism, Genocide, and the Birth of the Middle East, by Michelle Tusan 6. Pathological Bodies: Medicine and Political Culture, by Corinna Wagner 7. A Problem of Great Importance: Population, Race, and Power in the British Empire, 1918– 1973, by Karl Ittmann A Problem of Great Importance Population, Race, and Power in the British Empire, 1918– 1973 karl iTTmann Global, Area, and International Archive University of California Press Berkeley loS angeles London The Global, Area, and International Archive (GAIA) is an initiative of the Institute of International Studies, University of California, Berkeley, in partnership with the University of California Press, the California Digital Library, and international research programs across the University of California system. University of California Press, one of the most distinguished univer- sity presses in the United States, enriches lives around the world by advancing scholarship in the humanities, social sciences, and natural sciences. Its activities are supported by the UC Press Foundation and by philanthropic contributions from individuals and institutions. For more information, visit www.ucpress.edu. University of California Press Berkeley and Los Angeles, California University of California Press, Ltd.
    [Show full text]