William Farr on the Cholera: the Sanitarian's Disease Theory And
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School of Social Sciences Economics Division University of Southampton Southampton SO17 1BJ, UK Discussion Papers in Economics and Econometrics Mathematics in the Statistical Society 1883-1933 John Aldrich No. 0919 This paper is available on our website http://www.southampton.ac.uk/socsci/economics/research/papers ISSN 0966-4246 Mathematics in the Statistical Society 1883-1933* John Aldrich Economics Division School of Social Sciences University of Southampton Southampton SO17 1BJ UK e-mail: [email protected] Abstract This paper considers the place of mathematical methods based on probability in the work of the London (later Royal) Statistical Society in the half-century 1883-1933. The end-points are chosen because mathematical work started to appear regularly in 1883 and 1933 saw the formation of the Industrial and Agricultural Research Section– to promote these particular applications was to encourage mathematical methods. In the period three movements are distinguished, associated with major figures in the history of mathematical statistics–F. Y. Edgeworth, Karl Pearson and R. A. Fisher. The first two movements were based on the conviction that the use of mathematical methods could transform the way the Society did its traditional work in economic/social statistics while the third movement was associated with an enlargement in the scope of statistics. The study tries to synthesise research based on the Society’s archives with research on the wider history of statistics. Key names : Arthur Bowley, F. Y. Edgeworth, R. A. Fisher, Egon Pearson, Karl Pearson, Ernest Snow, John Wishart, G. Udny Yule. Keywords : History of Statistics, Royal Statistical Society, mathematical methods. -
History of the Development of the ICD
History of the development of the ICD 1. Early history Sir George Knibbs, the eminent Australian statistician, credited François Bossier de Lacroix (1706-1777), better known as Sauvages, with the first attempt to classify diseases systematically (10). Sauvages' comprehensive treatise was published under the title Nosologia methodica. A contemporary of Sauvages was the great methodologist Linnaeus (1707-1778), one of whose treatises was entitled Genera morborum. At the beginning of the 19th century, the classification of disease in most general use was one by William Cullen (1710-1790), of Edinburgh, which was published in 1785 under the title Synopsis nosologiae methodicae. For all practical purposes, however, the statistical study of disease began a century earlier with the work of John Graunt on the London Bills of Mortality. The kind of classification envisaged by this pioneer is exemplified by his attempt to estimate the proportion of liveborn children who died before reaching the age of six years, no records of age at death being available. He took all deaths classed as thrush, convulsions, rickets, teeth and worms, abortives, chrysomes, infants, livergrown, and overlaid and added to them half the deaths classed as smallpox, swinepox, measles, and worms without convulsions. Despite the crudity of this classification his estimate of a 36 % mortality before the age of six years appears from later evidence to have been a good one. While three centuries have contributed something to the scientific accuracy of disease classification, there are many who doubt the usefulness of attempts to compile statistics of disease, or even causes of death, because of the difficulties of classification. -
Orme) Wilberforce (Albert) Raymond Blackburn (Alexander Bell
Copyrights sought (Albert) Basil (Orme) Wilberforce (Albert) Raymond Blackburn (Alexander Bell) Filson Young (Alexander) Forbes Hendry (Alexander) Frederick Whyte (Alfred Hubert) Roy Fedden (Alfred) Alistair Cooke (Alfred) Guy Garrod (Alfred) James Hawkey (Archibald) Berkeley Milne (Archibald) David Stirling (Archibald) Havergal Downes-Shaw (Arthur) Berriedale Keith (Arthur) Beverley Baxter (Arthur) Cecil Tyrrell Beck (Arthur) Clive Morrison-Bell (Arthur) Hugh (Elsdale) Molson (Arthur) Mervyn Stockwood (Arthur) Paul Boissier, Harrow Heraldry Committee & Harrow School (Arthur) Trevor Dawson (Arwyn) Lynn Ungoed-Thomas (Basil Arthur) John Peto (Basil) Kingsley Martin (Basil) Kingsley Martin (Basil) Kingsley Martin & New Statesman (Borlasse Elward) Wyndham Childs (Cecil Frederick) Nevil Macready (Cecil George) Graham Hayman (Charles Edward) Howard Vincent (Charles Henry) Collins Baker (Charles) Alexander Harris (Charles) Cyril Clarke (Charles) Edgar Wood (Charles) Edward Troup (Charles) Frederick (Howard) Gough (Charles) Michael Duff (Charles) Philip Fothergill (Charles) Philip Fothergill, Liberal National Organisation, N-E Warwickshire Liberal Association & Rt Hon Charles Albert McCurdy (Charles) Vernon (Oldfield) Bartlett (Charles) Vernon (Oldfield) Bartlett & World Review of Reviews (Claude) Nigel (Byam) Davies (Claude) Nigel (Byam) Davies (Colin) Mark Patrick (Crwfurd) Wilfrid Griffin Eady (Cyril) Berkeley Ormerod (Cyril) Desmond Keeling (Cyril) George Toogood (Cyril) Kenneth Bird (David) Euan Wallace (Davies) Evan Bedford (Denis Duncan) -
The Scientific Rationality of Early Statistics, 1833–1877
The Scientific Rationality of Early Statistics, 1833–1877 Yasuhiro Okazawa St Catharine’s College This dissertation is submitted for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy. November 2018 Declaration Declaration This dissertation is the result of my own work and includes nothing which is the outcome of work done in collaboration except as declared in the Preface and specified in the text. It is not substantially the same as any that I have submitted, or, is being concurrently submitted for a degree or diploma or other qualification at the University of Cambridge or any other University or similar institution except as declared in the Preface and specified in the text. I further state that no substantial part of my dissertation has already been submitted, or, is being concurrently submitted for any such degree, diploma or other qualification at the University of Cambridge or any other University or similar institution except as declared in the Preface and specified in the text It does not exceed the prescribed word limit of 80,000 words for the Degree Committee of the Faculty of History. Yasuhiro Okazawa 13 November 2018 i Thesis Summary The Scientific Rationality of Early Statistics, 1833–1877 Yasuhiro Okazawa Summary This thesis examines the activities of the Statistical Society of London (SSL) and its contribution to early statistics—conceived as the science of humans in society—in Britain. The SSL as a collective entity played a crucial role in the formation of early statistics, as statisticians envisaged early statistics as a collaborative scientific project and prompted large-scale observation, which required cooperation among numerous statistical observers. -
Vital and Health Statistics, Series 4, No. 29
Vital and Health Statistics Reconsidering Age Adjustment Procedures: Workshop Proceedings Series 4: Documents and Committee Reports No. 29 This report contains papers presented at the Workshop on Age-Adjustment, March 7, 1991. Presentations are made by representatives of selected Federal, State, and international institutions dealing with issues in the use of the 1940 U.S. population as a standard for the age-adjustment of official statistics. Manning Feinleib, M.D., Dr.P.H., and Alvan O. Zarate, Ph.D., Editors U.S. DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH AND HUMAN SERVICES Public Health Service Centers for Disease Control National Center for Health Statistics Hyattsville, Maryland October 1992 DHHS Publication No. (PHS) 93-1466 Copyright Information All material appearing in this report is in the public domain and may be reproduced or copied without permission; citation as to source, however, is appreciated. Suggested Citation Feinleib M, Zarate AO, eds. Reconsidering age adjustment procedures: Workshop proceedings. National Center for Health Statistics. Vital Health Stat 4(29). 1992. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Reconsidering age-adjustment procedures : workshop proceedings. p. cm.—(Vital and health statistics. Series 4, Documents and committee reports ; no. 29) (DHHS publication ; no. (PHS) 92-1466) ISBN 0-8406-0464-5 1. Epidemiology—United States—Statistical methods—Congresses. 2. Epidemiology—United States—Mathematical models—Congresses. 3. Age distribution (Demography)—United States—Congresses. I. National Center for Health Statistics (U.S.) II. Series. III. Series: DHHS publication ; no. (PHS) 92-1466. RA652.2.M3R43 1992 614.4’273—dc20 92-25492 CIP National Center for Health Statistics Manning Feinleib, M.D., Dr.P.H., Director Jack R. -
John Graunt, James Lind, William Farr, and John Snow
© Smartboy10/DigitalVision Vectors/Getty Images CHAPTER 1 The Approach and Evolution of Epidemiology LEARNING OBJECTIVES By the end of this chapter the reader will be able to: ■ Define and discuss the goals of public health. ■ Distinguish between basic, clinical, and public health research. ■ Define epidemiology and explain its objectives. ■ Discuss the key components of epidemiology (population and frequency, distribution, determinants, and control of disease). ■ Discuss important figures in the history of epidemiology, including John Graunt, James Lind, William Farr, and John Snow. ■ Discuss important modern studies, including the Streptomycin Tuberculosis Trial, Doll and Hill’s studies on smoking and lung cancer, and the Framingham Study. ■ Discuss the current activities and challenges of modern epidemiologists. ▸ Introduction Most people do not know what epidemiology is or how it contributes to the health of our society. This fact is somewhat paradoxical given that epidemi- ology pervades our lives. Consider, for example, the following statements involving epidemiological research that have made headline news: ■ Ten years of hormone drugs benefits some women with breast cancer. ■ Cellular telephone users who talk or text on the phone while driving cause one in four car accidents. ■ Omega-3 pills, a popular alternative medicine, may not help with depression. ■ Fire retardants in consumer products may pose health risks. ■ Brazil reacts to an epidemic of Zika virus infections. 1 2 Chapter 1 The Approach and Evolution of Epidemiology The breadth and importance of these topics indicate that epidemiol- ogy directly affects the daily lives of most people. It affects the way that individuals make personal decisions about their lives and the way that the government, public health agencies, and medical organizations make policy decisions that affect how we live. -
Laura Vaughan
Mapping From a rare map of yellow fever in eighteenth-century New York, to Charles Booth’s famous maps of poverty in nineteenth-century London, an Italian racial Laura Vaughan zoning map of early twentieth-century Asmara, to a map of wealth disparities in the banlieues of twenty-first-century Paris, Mapping Society traces the evolution of social cartography over the past two centuries. In this richly illustrated book, Laura Vaughan examines maps of ethnic or religious difference, poverty, and health Mapping inequalities, demonstrating how they not only serve as historical records of social enquiry, but also constitute inscriptions of social patterns that have been etched deeply on the surface of cities. Society The book covers themes such as the use of visual rhetoric to change public Society opinion, the evolution of sociology as an academic practice, changing attitudes to The Spatial Dimensions physical disorder, and the complexity of segregation as an urban phenomenon. While the focus is on historical maps, the narrative carries the discussion of the of Social Cartography spatial dimensions of social cartography forward to the present day, showing how disciplines such as public health, crime science, and urban planning, chart spatial data in their current practice. Containing examples of space syntax analysis alongside full-colour maps and photographs, this volume will appeal to all those interested in the long-term forces that shape how people live in cities. Laura Vaughan is Professor of Urban Form and Society at the Bartlett School of Architecture, UCL. In addition to her research into social cartography, she has Vaughan Laura written on many other critical aspects of urbanism today, including her previous book for UCL Press, Suburban Urbanities: Suburbs and the Life of the High Street. -
Major GREENWOOD (1880 – 1949)
Major GREENWOOD (1880 – 1949) Publications Three previous publications have included lists of the books, reports, and papers written by, or with contributions by, Major Greenwood; none is complete. With the advantage of electronic searches we have therefore attempted to find all his published works and checked them back to source. Since both father (1854 - 1917) and son (1880 - 1949) had identical names, and both were medically qualified with careers that overlapped, it is sometimes difficult to distinguish the publications of one from those of the other except by their appendages (snr. or jun.), their qualifications (the former also had a degree in law), their locations, their dates, or the subjects they addressed. We have listed the books, reports, and papers separately, and among the last included letters, reviews, and obituaries. Excluding the letters would deprive interested scientists of the opportunity of appreciating Greenwood’s great knowledge of the classics, of history, and of medical science, as well as his scathing demolition of imprecision and poor numerical argument. The two publications in red we have been unable to verify against a source. Books Greenwood M Physiology of the Special Senses (vii+239 pages) London: Edward Arnold, 1910. Collis EL, Greenwood M The Health of the Industrial Worker (xix+450pages) London: J & A Churchill, 1921. Greenwood M Epidemiology, Historical and Experimental: the Herter Lectures for 1931 (x+80 pages) Baltimore: Johns Hopkins Press, and London: Oxford University Press, 1932. Greenwood M Epidemics and Crowd-Diseases: an Introduction to the Study of Epidemiology (409 pages) London: Williams and Norgate, 1933 (reprinted 1935). Greenwood M The Medical Dictator and Other Biographical Studies (213 pages) London: Williams and Norgate, 1936; London: Keynes Press, 1986; revised, Keynes Press, 1987. -
The Approach and Evolution of Epidemiology
4025X_CH01_001_032.qxd 4/13/07 9:28 AM Page 1 1 The Approach and Evolution of Epidemiology LEARNING OBJECTIVES By the end of this chapter the reader will be able to: ■ Define and discuss the goals of public health. ■ Distinguish between basic, clinical, and public health research. ■ Define epidemiology and explain its objectives. ■ Discuss the key components of epidemiology (population and frequency, distribution, determinants, and control of disease). ■ Discuss important figures in the history of epidemiology including John Graunt, James Lind, William Farr, and John Snow. ■ Discuss important modern studies including the Streptomycin Tubercu- losis Trial, Doll and Hill’s studies on smoking and lung cancer, and the Framingham Study. ■ Discuss the current activities and challenges of modern epidemiologists. Introduction Most people do not know what epidemiology is or how it contributes to the health of our society. This fact is somewhat paradoxical, given that epi- demiology pervades our lives. Consider, for example, the following state- ments that have made headline news: ■ Herceptin proves a wonder drug for early stage breast cancer by reducing the risk of recurrence and improving survival. 1 4025X_CH01_001_032.qxd 4/13/07 9:28 AM Page 2 2 ESSENTIALS OF EPIDEMIOLOGY IN PUBLIC HEALTH ■ Cellular telephone users who talk on the phone while driving are more likely than other drivers to become involved in a car accident. ■ Echinacea, a popular alternative medicine, is an ineffective treat- ment for the common cold. ■ Disinfection byproducts in drinking water increase a pregnant woman’s risk of miscarriage. ■ The deadly Avian flu has spread among poultry from Southeast Asia to Europe. -
History of Health Statistics
certain gambling problems [e.g. Pacioli (1494), Car- Health Statistics, History dano (1539), and Forestani (1603)] which were first of solved definitively by Pierre de Fermat (1601–1665) and Blaise Pascal (1623–1662). These efforts gave rise to the mathematical basis of probability theory, The field of statistics in the twentieth century statistical distribution functions (see Sampling Dis- (see Statistics, Overview) encompasses four major tributions), and statistical inference. areas; (i) the theory of probability and mathematical The analysis of uncertainty and errors of mea- statistics; (ii) the analysis of uncertainty and errors surement had its foundations in the field of astron- of measurement (see Measurement Error in omy which, from antiquity until the eighteenth cen- Epidemiologic Studies); (iii) design of experiments tury, was the dominant area for use of numerical (see Experimental Design) and sample surveys; information based on the most precise measure- and (iv) the collection, summarization, display, ments that the technologies of the times permit- and interpretation of observational data (see ted. The fallibility of their observations was evident Observational Study). These four areas are clearly to early astronomers, who took the “best” obser- interrelated and have evolved interactively over the vation when several were taken, the “best” being centuries. The first two areas are well covered assessed by such criteria as the quality of obser- in many histories of mathematical statistics while vational conditions, the fame of the observer, etc. the third area, being essentially a twentieth- But, gradually an appreciation for averaging observa- century development, has not yet been adequately tions developed and various techniques for fitting the summarized. -
Major Greenwood and Clinical Trials
From the James Lind Library Journal of the Royal Society of Medicine; 2017, Vol. 110(11) 452–457 DOI: 10.1177/0141076817736028 Major Greenwood and clinical trials Vern Farewell1 and Tony Johnson2 1MRC Biostatistics Unit, University of Cambridge, Cambridge CB2 0SR, UK 2MRC Clinical Trials Unit, Aviation House, London WC2B 6NH, UK Corresponding author: Vern Farewell. Email: [email protected] Introduction References to Greenwood’s work in clinical trials Major Greenwood (1880–1949) was the foremost medical statistician in the UK during the first Greenwood was a renowned epidemiologist who is not half of the 20th century.1 The son of a general usually associated with randomised clinical trials. At medical practitioner, he obtained a medical degree the time of his retirement, randomised clinical trials from the London Hospital in 1904 and then stu- were still under development and Peter Armitage has died statistics under Karl Pearson at University no recollection of Greenwood commenting on trials College London. Instead of general practice, he when Greenwood visited the London School of opted to pursue a career in medical research, first Hygiene and Tropical Medicine during his retirement under the physiologist Leonard Hill at the London (personal communication). Indeed, randomised clin- Hospital, where, in 1908, he set up the first depart- ical trials were a major component of the work of ment of medical statistics and gave the first lecture Austin Bradford Hill,5 who began his employment in course in the subject in 1909. He established the Greenwood’s department in 1923 and succeeded him second department of medical statistics in 1910 at as professor at the London School of Hygiene and the Lister Institute and established the second Tropical Medicine and director of the Medical course of lectures there. -
Design and Analysis Issues in Family-Based Association
Emerging Challenges in Statistical Genetics Duncan Thomas University of Southern California Human Genetics in the Big Science Era • “Big Data” – large n and large p and complexity e.g., NIH Biomedical Big Data Initiative (RFA-HG-14-020) • Large n: challenge for computation and data storage, but not conceptual • Large p: many data mining approaches, few grounded in statistical principles • Sparse penalized regression & hierarchical modeling from Bayesian and frequentist perspectives • Emerging –omics challenges Genetics: from Fisher to GWAS • Population genetics & heritability – Mendel / Fisher / Haldane / Wright • Segregation analysis – Likelihoods on complex pedigrees by peeling: Elston & Stewart • Linkage analysis (PCR / microsats / SNPs) – Multipoint: Lander & Green – MCMC: Thompson • Association – TDT, FBATs, etc: Spielman, Laird – GWAS: Risch & Merikangas – Post-GWAS: pathway mining, next-gen sequencing Association: From hypothesis-driven to agnostic research Candidate pathways Candidate Hierarchical GWAS genes models (ht-SNPs) Ontologies Pathway mining MRC BSU SGX Plans Objectives: – Integrating structural and prior information for sparse regression analysis of high dimensional data – Clustering models for exposure-disease associations – Integrating network information – Penalised regression and Bayesian variable selection – Mechanistic models of cellular processes – Statistical computing for large scale genomics data Targeted areas of impact : – gene regulation and immunological response – biomarker based signatures – targeting