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Black Searussia Wargamingpolicy Issue 1 (19), 2020 NATO ENERGY TURKEY BULGARIA BSEC CONFLICTS COOPERATION RELATIONS JAPAN NAVY BLACK SEA STRATEGIES WARGAMING CRIMEA REGION RUSSIA SECURITY ROMANIA UA: UkraineUSA Analytica · 1 (19), 2020 POLICY GEORGIA • BLACK SEA SECURITY • REGIONAL POLICIES • COOPERATION VS CONFRONTATION 1 BOARD OF ADVISERS Dr. Dimitar Bechev (Bulgaria, Director of the European Policy Institute) Issue 1 (19), 2020 Dr. Iulian Chifu Analysis and Early Warning Center) (Romania, Director of the Conflict The Black Sea Amb., Dr. Sergiy Korsunsky (Ukraine, Director of the Diplomatic Academy under the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine) Editors Dr. Igor Koval (Ukraine, Rector of Odessa National Dr. Hanna Shelest University by I.I. Mechnikov) Dr. Mykola Kapitonenko Amb., Dr. Sergey Minasyan (Armenia, Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary of Armenia to Romania) Publisher: Published by NGO “Promotion of Intercultural (Germany, Director of the Cooperation” (Ukraine), Centre of International Marcel Röthig Representation of the Friedrich Ebert Foundation in Ukraine) of the Representation of the Friedrich Ebert Studies (Ukraine), with the financial support Foundation in Ukraine, the Black Sea Trust. James Nixey (United Kingdom, Head of the Russia and Eurasia Programme at Chatham House, the UA: Ukraine Analytica Royal Institute of International Affairs) analytical journal in English on International is the first Ukrainian Relations, Politics and Economics. The journal Dr. Róbert Ondrejcsák (Slovakia, State Secretary, is aimed for experts, diplomats, academics, Ministry of Defence) students interested in the international relations and Ukraine in particular. Amb., Dr. Oleg Shamshur (Ukraine, Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary of Ukraine Contacts: to France) website: http://ukraine-analytica.org/ e-mail: [email protected] Dr. Stephan De Spiegeleire (The Netherlands, Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/ Director Defence Transformation at The Hague ukraineanalytica Center for Strategic Studies) Twitter: https://twitter.com/UA_Analytica Ivanna Klympush-Tsintsadze (Ukraine, The views and opinions expressed in Head of the Parliamentary Committee articles are those of the authors and do not on European Integration) Analytica, its editors, Board of Advisors or Dr. Dimitris Triantaphyllou (Greece, Director of necessarily reflect the position of UA: Ukraine donors. the Center for International and European Studies, Kadir Has University (Turkey)) ISSN 2518-7481 Dr. Asle Toje (Norway, Research Director at the 500 copies Norwegian Nobel Institute) UA: Ukraine Analytica · 1 (19), 2020 1 TABLE OF CONTENTS WHAT’S NEXT FOR THE BLACK SEA: PERSPECTIVE FROM REGIONAL PLAYERS 3 Yar Batoh WARGAMING OF THE BLACK SEA SECURITY: EXPLORATORY STUDY INTO THE STRATEGIES FOR THE REGION 10 Natalia Wojtowicz BLACK SEA SECURITY DEADLOCKS: NATO-RUSSIA CONFRONTATION 18 Maryna Vorotnyuk NAVAL WARFARE SCENARIOS FOR 2020 24 Andrii Klymenko ENERGY CRACKS OF THE BLACK SEA SECURITY 29 Mykhailo Gonchar, Vitalii Martyniuk, Igor Stukalenko BLACK SEA POLICY OF UKRAINE 37 Hanna Shelest, Yevgeniya Gaber, Artem Fylypenko TURKEY’S BLACK SEA POLICY: BETWEEN “RUSSIAN LAKE” AND “NATO’S BACKYARD” 43 Yevgeniya Gaber BLACK SEA INSECURITIES AND ANKARA’S DILEMMAS 53 Dimitrios Triantaphyllou GEORGIA AND THE BLACK SEA SECURITY: OPPORTUNITIES FOR FURTHER COOPERATION 61 Tengiz Pkhaladze US ROLE IN THE BLACK SEA REGION 66 Volodymyr Dubovyk THE BLACK SEA AREA IN JAPAN’S EXPANDING STRATEGIC HORIZONS 72 Violetta Udovik 2 UA: Ukraine Analytica · 1 (19), 2020 NAVAL WARFARE SCENARIOS FOR 2020 Andrii Klymenko The Monitoring Group of the Institute for Black Sea Strategic Studies Russian activities during the last few years aimed to control and limit navigation in the Black Sea as well as the Kerch incident of 2018 provide researchers with substantial data to predict possible developments for 2020. In this article, the author analyses the worst-case scenario and proposes a set of preventive actions. In 2020, obstacles to the freedom of navigation in the Azov and the Black seas posed by Russia will be a continuation of strategy to deploy military capabilities in Crimea beyond the peninsula. The freedom of navigation is the one of the guiding principles of the civilised world, which is why engaging the world community in countering these threats gives hope for positive results in 2020. • transformation of the Black Sea into a The security situation in the Black Sea “no-rules area” by the spread of practice has been rapidly changing, systemically of shipping in the direction of occupied transforming it into a “Russian lake”. Over Crimea by unregistered vessels with the last months of 2019 and during January– intentionally disabled AIS transmitters1; February of 2020, such trends were ongoing and deteriorating, namely: • of navigation in the Kerch Strait in the • further enhancement of Russian military directionfurther artificial of Ukrainian impediment Azov Seato freedom ports – grouping in occupied Crimea, which is Mariupil and Berdyansk. used as geostrategic, military, military- industrial, service, and logistic base for projecting Russian expansion on the The aim of the article is to predict the worst- Black Sea, in Syria, and the Middle East, case scenario of developments in the Black as well as North Africa; Sea in 2020 and to propose a set of preventive actions. Prediction of the situation regarding • occupation and militarisation of the maritime risks in the Azov and the Black Ukrainian shelf in the southwestern part seas connected with possible Russian of the Black Sea between the occupied actions is based on the experience of 2014– Crimean peninsula and the coast of Odesa 2019 not only in the Ukrainian–Russian but region; also in the macro-regional context – the • increased blocking of large areas of Black Sea–Mediterranean. The facts that the the Black Sea under a pretext of naval Russian aggression against Georgia in 2008 exercises; destabilised a long-preserved geopolitical 1 it is binding. AIS Automatic Identification System serving to identify vessels, according to the Convention SOLAS 74/88, 24 UA: Ukraine Analytica · 1 (19), 2020 fault line from Gibraltar to Mariupil, and the will continue and will be used by Russia to occupation of Crimea in 2014 shifted this fault line are taken as a premise. However,provide secrecy our formain military prediction traffic toconcerns Crimea. Such tectonic shifts do not come to a halt freedom of navigation in the Black Sea by themselves. Moreover, as it is thought in rather than the situation in the Azov Sea. Russia, “Putin’s political machine has been We are all but certain that the “Azov crisis” barely gaining momentum and setting itself was an “exercise”. In 2020, further actions of Russia to impede navigation in the direction Reaching its full capacity is far ahead. Thus, of Ukrainian ports not only in the Azov Sea Russiaup for awill long, remain difficult Putin’s and state interesting years later”. work.2 but also in the Black Sea are expected. In 2020, obstacles to the freedom of Transferring the “Azov Experience” navigation in the Azov and the Black seas to the Black Sea posed by Russia will be a continuation of strategy to deploy military capabilities in Azov maritime export/import from/to Crimea beyond the peninsula. In short, Ukrainian ports is only a small part (5%) it can be described as the projection of compared to export from ports of Odesa, military threat and imperial expansion Mykolaiv, and Kherson. The main Ukrainian not only towards Ukraine but also towards export-import routes are located in the Black Southeastern Europe, South Caucasus, Sea and lead to/from the Bosporus. It should Turkey, the “Syrian knot” in the Middle East, be noted that recommended shipping routes and North Africa. from the Bosporus to Ukrainian ports lie through a narrow gap between the Zmiinyi The reason of this power projection is to create chaos controlled by Moscow wherever the Ukrainian shelf occupied by Russia. This possible, not only in Ukraine, Moldova, and “bottleneck”(Snake) Island is onlyand 13.5the milesOdesa (25 gas km) field wide. on the Caucasus, but also in the EU and NATO states, in the Balkans and the Mediterranean in particular. We observe manifestations and consequences of such processes more In 2020, obstacles to the freedom often. The problem of freedom of navigation of navigation in the Azov and in the Azov Sea and the Kerch Strait that «the Black seas posed by Russia “suddenly” emerged in April–May 2018 is will be a continuation of strategy regarded exactly in such context. to deploy military capabilities in Crimea beyond the peninsula Based on this experience, it is possible to simulate scenarios and make predictions for 2020 regarding possible Russian actions In the Black Sea – near the recommended Black and the Azov seas and reaction from shipping routes from Odesa to the Bosporus, Ukrainethat will influenceand the world.safety ofAccording navigation to in ourthe from Odesa to Batumi and Turkish Black Sea prediction, in 2020, blocking (under various ports – oil platforms are located on Ukrainian continental shelf, seized by Russia at the time pretexts) the vessel traffic in the Kerch Strait 2 Долгое государство Путина (V. Surkov, Putin’s Long State), [http://www.ng.ru/ideas/2019-02-11/5_7503_surkov.html]. В. Сурков, «Независимая газета», 11 February 2019, UA: Ukraine Analytica · 1 (19), 2020 25 of Crimea’s occupation. While previously will be increasing the practice of closing auxiliary ships of the Russian Federation for navigation western areas of the sea for patrolled the areas of Odesa, Golitsynskiy, since 1 June 2018 guarding of the seized ForRussian example, live-fire on exercises 1–12 July(real 2019,or fake). during UkrainianArkhangelskiy, derricks and on Shtormovoy the occupied oil shelf fields, has Ukrainian–American naval exercises Sea Breeze 2019, Russia blocked one of the ship brigade of the Russian Black Sea Fleet. areas for exercises in the Black Sea – from Itbeen should officially be noted delegated that these to the are 41st battleships missile Ukrainian Zmiinyi Island near Odesa coast to the Tarhankut Cape in Crimea – namely Thatwith significantis why it strikemakes capability.
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