North West Cambridge Retail Transport Study Final Report June 2010
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North West Cambridge Retail Transport Study Final Report June 2010 North West Cambridge Retail Transport Study Final Report June 2010 Notice This document and its contents have been prepared and are intended solely for Cambridgeshire County Council’s information and use in relation to the North West Cambridge Retail Transport Study . Atkins Transport Planning & Management assumes no responsibility to any other party in respect of or arising out of or in connection with this document and/or its contents. Document History JOB NUMBER: 5092812 DOCUMENT REF: Final Report -v11.docx 4 Final Draft NP - - RSB 30/6/10 3 Second Draft NP - JML RSB 11/6/10 2 Draft Report for issue NP SA JML RSB 14/5/10 1 First Draft NP RSB, JML - 10/5/10 Revision Purpose Description Originated Checked Reviewed Authorised Date 5092812/Copy of Final Report-v11.docx North West Cambridge Retail Transport Study – Final Report Contents Section Page List of Abbreviations iv Glossary v Executive Summary vii 1. Introduction 1 Background 1 This Study 2 Structure of the Report 3 2. Technical Approach 4 Introduction 4 Applicability of Existing Models 4 Gravity Model 5 Inputs and Assumptions 7 Details of the Gravity Model 9 Feedback to the CSRM 15 Summary of the Technical Approach 16 3. Gravity Model Forecasts 17 Introduction 17 Mode Share 20 Shopping Trip Costs 22 Abstraction from Existing Major Stores 23 Level of Internalisation 24 Shopping Destinations across the Wider Catchment Area 25 Summary of the Gravity Model Forecasts 38 4. Cambridge Sub-Regional Model Forecasts 39 Introduction 39 Summary Statistics 39 Performance of Key Junctions 45 Analysis of Pass-By Trips 49 Summary of the CSRM Forecasts 50 5. Summary and Findings 51 Summary 51 Qualitative Discussion 52 Findings 53 Further Work 53 5092812/Copy of Final Report-v11.docx i North West Cambridge Retail Transport Study – Final Report List of Tables Table 2.1 – Input Data 7 Table 2.2 – Number of Trips to each Major Food Store 13 Table 2.3 – Car Mode Shares for Major Food Stores in Cambridge based on SOLUTIONS Study 15 Table 3.1 – Percentage Mode Share by Car and Car Person Trips for NWC Stores 21 Table 3.2 – Daily Average Trip Costs (pence), All Modes 22 Table 3.3 – Percentage of Trips t o New Stores from within SRS Primary Catchment Area 24 Table 3.4 – Percentage of Trips to New Stores from within NWC 24 Table 4.1 – SATURN Model Statistics for SRS Primary Catchment Area (all vehicle trips) 42 Table 4.2 – SATURN Mo del Statistics for SRS Secondary Catchment Area (all vehicle trips) 43 Table 4.3 – SATURN Model Statistics for Cambridge Urban Area (all vehicle trips) 44 Table 4.4 – AM Peak Delays at Key Junctions (Seconds per PCU) 46 Table 4.5 – Inter Peak Delays at Key Junctions (Seconds per PCU) 47 Table 4.6 – PM Peak Delays at Key Junctions (Seconds per PCU) 48 Table 4.7 – Two-Way PCU Flows on Radial Routes in Planned Development Only Model 49 Table 4.8 – Approximate Road Distance from Stores to Adjacent Radial Routes 49 Table 4.9 – Pass-By Potential of Stores 49 Table 5.1 – Analysis of Tests by Key NWC Transport Objectives 52 List of Figures Figure 1.1 – Development Site Locations 1 Figure 2.1 – Illust ration of Different Housing Distributions 5 Figure 2.2 – Flow Diagram showing CSRM and Gravity Model Interaction 6 Figure 2.3 – Postcode Areas in Cambridge 8 Figure 2.4 – Study Catchment Area 10 Figure 2.5 – Modelled and Observed Trip Cost Distributions 12 Figure 2.6 – Number of Trips to each Major Food Store 13 Figure 3.1 – Major Food Store Location Plan 18 Figure 3.2 – Food Store Locations and Sizes (m 2 GFA), Planned Development Only 18 Figure 3.3 – Food Store Locations and Sizes (m 2 GFA), Test Scenarios 19 Figure 3.4 – Abstraction from Existing Stores 23 Figure 3.5 – Test 1 Shopping Destinations, Wide Area 26 Figure 3.6 – Test 1 Shopping Destinations, Local Area 27 Figure 3.7 – Test 2 Shopping Destinations, Wide Area 28 Figure 3.8 – Test 2 Shopping Destinations, Local Area 29 Figure 3.9 – Test 3 Shopping Destinations, Wide Area 30 Figure 3.10 – Test 3 Shopping Destinations, Local Area 31 Figure 3.11 – Test 4 Shopping Destinations, Wide Area 32 Figure 3.12 – Test 4 Shopping Destinations, Local Area 33 Figure 3.13 – Test 5 Shopping Destinations, Wide Area 34 Figure 3.14 – Test 5 Shopping Destinations, Local Area 35 Figure 3.15 – Test 6 Shopping Destinations, Wide Area 36 Figure 3.16 – Test 6 Shopping Destinations, Local Area 37 Figure 4.1 – Cambridge Urban Area Definition 41 Figure 4.2 – Key Junction Locations 45 5092812/Copy of Final Report-v11.docx ii North West Cambridge Retail Transport Study – Final Report Appendices Appendix A – Modelled Scenarios 55 A.1 The Dwelling Scenarios 56 A.2 The Retail Scenarios 56 List of Tables Table A.1 – Dwelling Assumptions 56 Table A.2 – NWC Retail Pr ovision in the Base (2008) Scenario 57 Table A.3 – NWC Additional Retail Provision in Planned Development Only (2021) over Base (2008) 57 Table A.4 – NWC Additional Retail Provision in Test 1 (2021) over Base (2008) 57 Table A.5 – NWC Additional Retail Provision in Test 2 (2021) over Base (2008) 57 Table A.6 – NWC A dditional Retail Provision in Test 3 (2021) over Base (2008) 57 Table A.7 – NWC Additional Retail Provision in Test 4 (2021) over Base (2008) 58 Table A.8 – NWC Additional Retail Provision in Test 5 (2021) over Base (2008) 58 Table A.9 – NWC Additional Retail Provision in Test 6 (2021) over Base (2008) 58 Table A.10 – Net Increase in Food Store Provision over Planned Development Only Scenario 58 List of Figures Figure A.1 – Development Map 59 5092812/Copy of Final Report-v11.docx iii North West Cambridge Retail Transport Study – Final Report List of Abbreviations CCC Cambridgeshire County Council CCRG Cambridgeshire County Research Group CO 2 Carbon dioxide CSRM Cambridge Sub-Regional Model DfT Department for Transport GFA Gross Floor Area (measured in square metres) NLP Nathaniel Lichfield and Partners NWC North-West Cambridge (consisting of University, NIAB, NIAB Extra and Orchard Park sites) PCA Primary Catchment Area (as defined in the SRS) PCU Passenger Car Unit RFA Ret ail Floor Area (measured in square metres) SCA Secondary Catchment Area (as defined in the SRS) SCDC South Cambridgeshire District Council SOLUTIONS Sustainability Of Land Use and Transport In Outer Neighbourhoods SRS Supplementary Retail Study TIF Transpo rt Innovation Fund TRICS Trip Rate Information Computer System WebTAG Web-based Transport Analysis Guidance 5092812/Copy of Final Report-v11.docx iv North West Cambridge Retail Transport Study – Final Report Glossary Base case The “starting position” for modelling. In this study, the base year is 2008 and the base case includes everything that had bee n built by that year (roads, houses, etc.). CSRM The Cambridge Sub -Regional Model is a transport and land use interaction model that was originally built for the TIF study according to the latest DfT guidelines. It has a base year of 2006 and forecast years of 2011, 2016, 2021, 2026 and 2031, with the predicted interim/complete states of all developments fed into each forecast year. Generalised cost Generalised cost is a combination of travel time a nd distance, expressed as a monetary cost in pence based on DfT valuations of the cost of time for personal travel as well as fuel and non -fuel elements of travel costs. Gravity model In transport modelling, a gravity m odel provides a means of distributing trips between origins and destinations, based on the ‘production potential’ of origins, the attractiveness of destinations, and the cost of travelling between the two. As its name suggests, it is based on an analogy with the law of gravity in physics, whereby the gravitational ‘pull’ of an object decreases with distance from it, and is dependent on the size of the object. In the context of this study, the ‘production potential’ of origins describes the number of households and their propensit y to go shopping in the study area; the attractiveness of destinations is based on the store size; and the cost of travel is expressed in generalised cost (see above). Major food store A food store of 2800 m 2 GFA or more. Minor food store A food store of less than 2800 m 2 GFA. Mode share Mode share describes the proportion of trips travelling by each mode of transport. For example, the car mode share is the proportion of trips that are made by car. Pass-by trip A pass -by trip is one that is made en rou te between two other places. For example, somebody might call in at a supermarket on their way home from work. These trips in themselves do not cause additional traffic to enter the road network (although they may involve a detour). PCU Vehicular data f rom the SATURN models is in Passenger Car Units, rather than pure vehicles. For example, an HGV is counted as 2.3 PCUs, while a car is 1 PCU. This is due to the way the SATURN model represents the additional road space required by larger vehicles on the network. Planned Development Only This describes the future year scenario when only the development that is currently planned in NWC has been put in place. This is as opposed to the 5092812/Copy of Final Report-v11.docx v North West Cambridge Retail Transport Study – Final Report Test Scenarios, when additional food store floorspace is included to tes t the effects of these changes.