State-Of-The-Art Report on Systems Analysis Methods for Resolution of Conflicts in Water Resources Management
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STATE-OF-THE-ART REPORT ON SYSTEMS ANALYSIS METHODS FOR RESOLUTION OF CONFLICTS IN WATER RESOURCES MANAGEMENT A Report Prepared for Division of Water Sciences UNESCO Edited by K. D. W. Nandalal University of Peradeniya, Peradeniya, Sri Lanka Slobodan P. Simonovic University of Western Ontario, London, Ontario, Canada SC-2003/WS/60 Contributors Dr M. Bender with Prof. S. P. Simonovic, authors of Sections 3.5.5, 3.5.6, 4.1 and 5.6 Prof. V. Dukhovny Prof. K. W. Hipel with Prof. D. M. Kilgour, Prof. F. Liping and Mr. K. W. Li, authors of Section 4.3 Dr T. Le-Huu Prof. D. P. Loucks Prof. S. P. Simonovic, author of Sections 6.2, 6.3 and 6.4 Dr S. N. Sreenath, with Dr A. M. Vali and Dr G. Susiarjo, authors of Section 4.4.5 The designations employed and the presentation of material throughout this publication do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of UNESCO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries. The authors are responsible for the choice and the presentation of the facts contained in this book and for the opinions expressed therein, which are not necessarily those of UNESCO and do not commit the Organization. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS This report is a contribution from UNESCO’s International Hydrological Programme to the World Water Assessment Programme. It was prepared within the framework of the joint UNESCO–Green Cross International project entitled “From Potential Conflict to Cooperation Potential (PCCP): Water for Peace,” and was made possible by the generous financial assistance of the Japanese government. In addition to the contributors we would like to acknowledge the assistance of IJC (Dr M. Clamen). Help of research associates and graduate students of the Facility for Intelligent Decision Support at the University of Western Ontario during the visit of the first author is also recognized. CONTENTS Summary 1 1. Introduction 2 1.1. General 2 1.2. Nature of Conflicts Over Water 3 1.3. Causes of Water Conflicts 3 1.4. Conflict Resolution/Corporation Potential 4 2. Definition and Purpose of Systems Analysis 6 2.1. Systems Approach: General Comments 6 2.2. Systems Analysis: Definitions 7 2.3. Systems Analysis Tools 10 2.3.1. Simulation 10 2.3.2. Optimization 11 2.3.3. Multi-objective Analysis 12 2.4. A Systemic Approach to Conflict Resolution 15 3. Types of Water Resources Management Conflicts and Models 17 3.1. General 17 3.2. Disciplines and Worldviews 18 3.3. Nature of Conflicts Over Water 19 3.4. Conflict Resolution 20 3.5. Types of Problems vs. Types of Models 21 3.5.1. Conflict Negotiation 21 3.5.2. The Role of Computer-Based Support in Conflict Resolution 22 3.5.2.1. Decision Support Systems 22 3.5.3. Negotiation Support Systems (NSS) 23 3.5.4. Negotiation Process Systems (NPS)/Negotiation Process Support Systems 25 3.5.5. Collaborative Planning Approach 26 3.5.6. Consensus Approach 29 3.5.7. Scenario Analysis 30 3.6. Scales Issue in Conflicts 32 3.6.1. Global Scale of Water Conflicts 32 3.6.1.1. Lack of Accessible Water 33 3.6.1.2. Increasing Environmental Concerns 33 3.6.1.3. Economic Value of Water 33 3.6.2. Regional Scale of Water Conflicts 33 3.6.3. Upstream and Downstream Relationship 34 3.6.4. Conflicts Between Purposes and Users 34 3.6.5. Conflicts in Time 34 3.7. Integrated Water Management: Multisectoral 35 3.7.1. Water Conflicts in the Integrated Water Resources Management Process 36 3.7.1.1. Social Conflicts of Water Use: Equitability and Ecosystem Efficiency 36 3.7.1.2. Economic Conflicts in Water Use: Market Efficiency 36 3.7.1.3. Legal Conflicts: Rules in Water Utilization and Principles for Water Allocation 37 3.8. Stakeholder Participation: Shared Vision Approaches 37 3.8.1. International Joint Commission in Water Resource Conflict Resolution 39 3.8.1.1. The Canada–United States Boundary Region 39 3.8.1.2. The IJC and the 1909 Boundary Waters Treaty 39 3.8.1.3. Case Study: Great Lakes–St Lawrence River 40 3.8.1.4. International Watershed Boards 41 3.8.1.5. Conflict Resolution 42 3.8.1.6. Summary 43 4. Case Studies Illustrating Applicability, Success, and Limitations of Systems Analysis 44 4.1. Collaborative Approach in Conflict Resolution: Manitoba Hydropower Example (Manitoba, Canada) 44 4.1.1. Introduction 44 4.1.2. Case Study: Manitoba 45 4.1.3. Development Proponent 46 4.1.4. Identification of Stakeholders 47 4.1.5. Project Licensing 48 4.1.6. Integration of GIS Tools 48 4.1.7. GIS Database 49 4.1.8. Flood Inundation Visualization 49 4.1.9. Development of Alternatives 50 4.1.10. Application of Expert Systems 51 4.1.10.1. Expert Systems 51 4.1.10.2. Prototype Expert System for Choosing the Design of a Hydroelectric Generating Station 52 4.1.10.3. Knowledge Base 52 4.1.11. Summary 54 4.2. International Water Conflicts: Danube River Application 54 4.2.1. Identification of Goals for the Section of the Danube Studied in this Work 55 4.2.1.1. Hydropower 56 4.2.1.2. Navigation 56 4.2.1.3. Drinking Water Supply 56 4.2.1.4. Environmental Preservation 56 4.2.1.5. Social Objective 56 4.2.2. Definition of Criteria 57 4.2.3. Multicriteria Approach for Group Decision Making 59 4.2.4. Conflict Resolution Among the Countries 60 4.2.5. Referee's Viewpoint 61 4.3. Resolution of Water Conflicts between Canada and the United States 62 4.3.1. Introduction 62 4.3.2. The Graph Model for Conflict Resolution and GMCR II 62 4.3.3. Case Study: Flathead River Conflict 64 4.3.4. Modeling: Putting the Problem into Perspective 64 4.3.4.1. Decision Makers and Options 65 4.3.4.2. Feasible States 66 4.3.4.3. Allowable State Transitions 67 4.3.4.4. Relative Preference Ranking 67 4.3.5. Analysis and Results: Deciding What to Do 68 4.3.6. Conclusions 70 4.4. Aral Sea Basin: Conflicts 75 4.4.1. Aral Sea Basin 75 4.4.1.1. Hydrological Characteristics 75 4.4.1.2. Water Resources 76 4.4.1.3. Land Use 77 4.4.1.4. Ecosystem Dynamics 77 4.4.1.5. Social and Economic Characteristics 78 4.4.1.6. Ethnicity, Languages, Religion 78 4.4.2. Water-related Conflicts 78 4.4.2.1. Social Conflicts 78 4.4.2.2. Economic Conflicts 79 4.4.2.3. Legal Conflicts 80 4.4.3 Conflict Resolution 81 4.4.3.1. Water Conflicts in Perspective 81 4.4.3.2. Institutional Aspects 81 4.4.3.3. Legal Basis 82 4.4.3.4. Financing 84 4.4.3.5. Technical Issues 84 4.4.4. Future Work 85 4.4.4.1. Proposal for Integrated Water Resources Management 85 4.4.5. Scenario Analysis in Future Development of the Aral Sea Basin Countries 86 4.4.5.1. Signs and Symptoms 86 4.4.5.2. Formulation of Vision and Scenario Analysis 88 4.4.5.3. Implementation 89 4.5.4.4. Scenario Analysis 92 4.5.4.5. Conclusions 94 5. Treatment of Uncertainty in Negotiation and Agreements 96 5.1. Modeling Uncertainty 96 5.2. Fuzzy Decision Making 97 5.3. Displaced Ideals 97 5.4. Existing Applications Using Fuzzy Ideals 98 5.5. Fuzzy Arithmetic Operations 99 5.6. Fuzzy Compromise Approach 100 5.6.1. Fuzzy Distance Metrics 100 5.6.2. Selecting Acceptable Alternatives 101 5.6.3. Weighted Center of Gravity Measure 102 5.6.4. Fuzzy Acceptability Measure 102 5.6.5. Comparison of Ranking Methods 103 5.7. Application of the Fuzzy Compromise Programming 104 5.7.1. Collaborative Decision Making 107 6. Future Outlook 108 6.1. General 108 6.2. Tools for Future Water Management 108 6.2.1. Complexity Paradigm 108 6.2.2. Uncertainty Paradigm 111 6.3. Future Tools for Water Management 112 6.3.1. Object-Oriented Simulation 112 6.3.2. Evolutionary Optimization Using Powerful Computers 112 6.3.3. Integration of Fuzzy Analysis with Simulation and Optimization Tools 113 6.3.4. Integration of Spatial Analysis with Simulation and Optimization 113 6.4. Use of Virtual Databases 114 6.4.1. Evaluation of User Data Needs 115 6.4.2. Virtual Database Architecture 115 6.5. Decision Support Systems 116 6.6. Web Interaction 116 Bibliography 118 STATE-OF-THE-ART REPORT ON SYSTEMS ANALYSIS METHODS FOR RESOLUTION OF CONFLICTS IN WATER RESOURCES MANAGEMENT Water is an important factor in conflicts among stakeholders at the local, regional, and even international level. Water conflicts have taken many forms, but they almost always arise from the fact that the freshwater resources of the world are not partitioned to match the political borders, nor are they evenly distributed in space and time. The watersheds of 261 major rivers are shared by two or more countries and nearly half of the land area of the world is in international river basins. Water has been used as a military and political goal. Water has been a weapon of war. Water systems have been targets during war. The role of a systems approach is investigated in this report as a method for the resolution of conflicts over water.