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Confrontation Analysis in Natural Gas Extraction from Shared Field

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Confrontation Analysis in Natural Gas Extraction from Shared Field واﻛﺎوي ﺗﻘﺎﺑﻞ در ﺑﺮداﺷﺖ از ﻣﻴﺪان ﻣﺸﺘﺮك ﮔﺎزي اﻳﺮان و ﻗﻄﺮ ﺑﺎ روﻳﻜﺮد ﺗﺌﻮري درام ﻋﺎدل آذر1* ، ﺳﻌﻴﺪ ﻧﺠﻔﻲ ﺗﻮاﻧﺎ2 ، ﺣﺴﻦ ﻣﺤﻤﺪي3 .1 اﺳﺘﺎد ﮔﺮوه ﻣﺪﻳﺮﻳﺖ، داﻧﺸﻜﺪه ﻣﺪﻳﺮﻳﺖ و اﻗﺘﺼﺎد، داﻧﺸﮕﺎه ﺗﺮﺑﻴﺖ ﻣﺪرس، ﺗﻬﺮان، ﺗﻬﺮان .2 اﺳﺘﺎدﻳﺎر ﮔﺮوه ﻣﺪﻳﺮﻳﺖ ، ﻣﻮﺳﺴﻪ ﻋﺎﻟﻲ آﻣﻮزش و ﭘﮋوﻫﺶ ﻣﺪﻳﺮﻳﺖ و ﺑﺮﻧﺎﻣﻪ رﻳﺰي، ﺗﻬﺮان، ﺗﻬﺮان .3 ﻛﺎرﺷﻨﺎس ارﺷﺪ ﻣﺪﻳﺮﻳﺖ ﺻﻨﻌﺘﻲ، ﻣﻮﺳﺴﻪ ﻋﺎﻟﻲ آﻣﻮزش و ﭘﮋوﻫﺶ ﻣﺪﻳﺮﻳﺖ و ﺑﺮﻧﺎﻣﻪ رﻳﺰي، ﺗﻬﺮان، ﺗﻬﺮان در ﻳﺎﻓﺖ: /21 /11 94 ﭘﺬﻳﺮش: /1 /12 94 94 ﭼﻜﻴﺪه ﻣﺪﻟﺴﺎزي و ﺗﺤﻠﻴﻞ ﺗﻌﺎرض از ﻣﻨﻈﺮ رﺷﺘﻪ ﻫﺎي ﮔﻮﻧﺎﮔﻮﻧﻲ ﺻﻮرت ﮔﺮﻓﺘﻪ اﺳﺖ. روش ﻫﺎي ﻣﺒﺘﻨﻲ ﺑﺮ ﻣﺘﺎﮔﻴﻢ از ﺟﺎﻣﻊ ﺗﺮﻳﻦ ﻣﺪل ﻫﺎﻳﻲ اﺳﺖ ﻛﻪ ﺑﺮاي ﻣﺪﻟﺴﺎزي و ﺗﺤﻠﻴﻞ ﺗﻌﺎرض ﻣﻮرد اﺳﺘﻔﺎده ﻗﺮار ﮔﺮﻓﺘﻪ اﺳﺖ. ﻣﺮور ادﺑﻴﺎت ﭘﮋوﻫﺶ ﻧﺸﺎن ﻣﻲ دﻫﺪ ﻛﻪ در ﻣﻴﺪان ﻣﺸﺘﺮك ﮔﺎزي اﻳﺮان و ﻗﻄﺮ، وﺟﻮد ﻣﻨﻔﻌﺖ ﻣﺸﺘﺮك و ﻋﺪم وﺟﻮد ﺗﻌﺎدل در ﻗﺪرت ﻃﺮﻓﻴﻦ ﺑﺎﻋﺚ اﻳﺠﺎد ﺗﻌﺎرض ﺑﻴﻦ دو ﻛﺸﻮر ﺷﺪه اﺳﺖ. ﻫﻤﭽﻨﻴﻦ ﺗﺎﻛﻨﻮن ﻣﻄﺎﻟﻌﻪ ﺟﺪي در زﻣﻴﻨﻪ اﺑﻌﺎد دﺧﻴﻞ در اﻳﻦ ﺗﻌﺎرض اﻧﺠﺎم ﻧﮕﺮﻓﺘﻪ اﺳﺖ. در اﻳﻦ ﭘﮋوﻫﺶ ﺑﻪ ﻣﻨﻈﻮر ﺷﻨﺎﺳ ﺎﻳﻲ ﻣﺴﺎﺋﻞ ﻣﻮﺟﻮد از ﺗﺤﻠﻴﻞ ﺗﻘﺎﺑﻠﻲ و روﻳﻜﺮد ﺗﺌﻮري درام ﺑﻬﺮه ﮔﺮﻓﺘﻪ ﺷﺪه اﺳﺖ. ﺑﺪﻳﻦ ﻣﻨﻈﻮر ﺑﺮ اﺳﺎس اﻃﻼﻋﺎت ﺟﻤﻊ آوري ﺷﺪه ﺣﺎﺻﻞ از ﻣﺼﺎﺣﺒﻪ ﻫﺎ ﭼﺎرﭼﻮﺑﻲ اراﺋﻪ ﺷﺪه اﺳﺖ ﻛﻪ ﻋﻮاﻣﻞ ﻣﺆﺛﺮ در ﻣﻴﺪان ﻣﺸﺘﺮك ﺑﻴﻦ اﻳﺮان و ﻗﻄﺮ را ﻧﺸﺎن ﻣﻲ دﻫﺪ. اﮔﺮﭼﻪ ﻳﺎﻓﺘﻪ ﻫﺎي ﭘﮋوﻫﺶ ﺣﺎﻛﻲ از ﻋﺪم اﻣﻜﺎن ﻣﺬا ﻛﺮه در ﺷﺮاﻳﻂ ﻓﻌﻠﻲ ﻣﻲ ﺑﺎﺷﺪ، اﻣﺎ وﺿﻌﻴﺖ ﻣﺜﺒﺘﻲ را ﺑﺮاي ﻃﺮف اﻳﺮاﻧﻲ در آﻳﻨﺪه ﭘﻴﺶ ﺑﻴﻨﻲ ﻛﺮده اﺳﺖ. Downloaded from mri.modares.ac.ir at 23:12 IRST on Saturday September 25th 2021 اﻳﻦ ﭘﮋوﻫﺶ ﻳﻚ اﺳﺘﺮاﺗﮋي ﻣﻨﺎﺳﺐ ﻧﻴﺰ ﭘﻴﺸﻨﻬﺎد ﻣﻲ ﻛﻨﺪ ﻛﻪ ﻋﻼوه ﺑﺮ ﻣﺮﺗﻔﻊ ﻛﺮدن ﺗﻌﺎرض ﺑﻴﻦ اﻳﺮان و ﻗﻄﺮ، ﺗﺴﻬﻴﻞ اﻳﺠﺎد ﻳﻚ ﻫﻤﻜﺎري ﺛﻤﺮﺑﺨﺶ ﺑﻴﻦ دو ﻃﺮف را ﻧﻴﺰ در ﭘﻲ دارد. واژه ﻫﺎي ﻛﻠﻴﺪي : ﺗﺤﻘﻴﻖ در ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺎت ﻧﺮم، روﺷ ﻬﺎي ﺳﺎﺧﺘﺪﻫﻲ ﻣﺴﺌﻠﻪ، ﺗﺠﺰﻳﻪ و ﺗﺤﻠﻴﻞ ﺗﻌﺎرض، ﺗﺌﻮري درام، ﺗﺤﻠﻴﻞ ﺗﻘﺎﺑﻠﻲ، ﻣﻴﺪان ﮔﺎزي ﭘﺎرس ﺟﻨﻮﺑﻲ. ـــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــ ـــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــ ∗ ﻧﻮﻳﺴﻨﺪة ﻣﺴﺆول ﻣﻘﺎﻟﻪ: E-mail: [email protected] ﻋﺎدل آذر و ﻫﻤﻜﺎران ـــــ ـــ ــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــ ــ واﻛﺎوي ﺗﻘﺎﺑﻞ در ﺑﺮداﺷﺖ از ﻣﻴﺪان ... ... .1 ﻣﻘﺪﻣﻪ اﻣﺮوزه ﺑﺴﻴﺎري از ﺻﺎﺣﺒﻨﻈﺮان ﻣﺴﺎﺋﻞ ﺑﻴﻦ اﻟﻤﻠﻠﻲ ﺗﺼﺪﻳﻖ ﻣﻲ ﻛﻨﻨﺪ ﻛﻪ ﻳﻜﻲ از ﻛﺎﻧﻮن ﻫﺎي ﺟﺪي ﺗﻬﺪﻳﺪ ﺻﻠﺢ و اﻣﻨﻴﺖ ﺑﻴﻦ اﻟﻤﻠﻠﻲ، ﻣﻨﺎﺑﻊ ﻃﺒﻴﻌﻲ ﻣﺸﺘﺮك ﻣﻲ ﺑﺎﺷﺪ. از اﻳﻦ ﻣﻴﺎن اﻫﻤﻴﺖ ﺳﻮﺧﺖ ﻫﺎي ﻫﻴﺪروﻛﺮﺑﻮري ﻣﺸﺘﺮك ﺑﻴﺶ از ﺳﺎﻳﺮﻳﻦ ﻣﻲ ﺑﺎﺷﺪ و ﺑﺮ اﺳﺎس آﻣﺎرﻫﺎي اراﺋﻪ ﺷﺪه از ﺳﻮي ﺳﺎزﻣﺎن ﻫﺎي ﺑﻴﻦ اﻟﻤﻠﻠﻲ، ﮔﺎز ﻃﺒﻴﻌﻲ از ﺑﺎﻻﺗﺮﻳﻦ رﺷ ﺪ ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎ در ﻣﻴﺎن ﺳﺎﻳﺮ ﺳﻮﺧﺖ ﻫﺎي ﻫﻴﺪروﻛﺮﺑﻮري در دﻫﻪ ﻫﺎي آﺗﻲ ﺑﺮﺧﻮردار ﺧﻮاﻫﺪ ﺑﻮد. از اﻳﻦ رو ﻗﺮن ﺑﻴﺴﺖ و ﻳﻜﻢ را ﻗﺮن ﮔﺎز ﻧﺎﻣﻴﺪه اﻧﺪ. ﺑﻨﺎﺑﺮاﻳﻦ ﻣﻨﻄﻘﻪ ﺧﻠﻴﺞ ﻓﺎرس (ﻛﻪ ﺑﻴﺶ از 40 درﺻﺪ از ذﺧﺎﻳﺮ ﮔﺎز ﺟﻬﺎن را در اﺧﺘﻴﺎر دارد) و از اﻳﻦ ﻟﺤﺎظ ﺣﺎﻳﺰ رﺗﺒﻪ اول در ﺟﻬﺎن ﻣﻲ ﺑﺎﺷﺪ، اﻫﻤﻴﺖ ژﺋﻮﭘﻠﻴﺘﻴﻜﻲ ﻣﻬﻤﻲ در ﺗﺄﻣﻴﻦ ﮔﺎز ﻣﻮرد ﻧﻴﺎز ﺟﻬﺎن ﺑﺮ ﻋﻬﺪه ﺧﻮاﻫﺪ داﺷﺖ، زﻳﺮا ﻛﻪ ﺑﺎﻋﺚ ﺑﻪ وﺟﻮد آﻣﺪن رﻗﺎﺑﺖ ﺷﺪﻳﺪي ﻣﻴﺎن ﻛﺸﻮرﻫﺎي اﻳﻦ ﻣﻨﻄﻘﻪ ﺑﺮاي اﺳﺘﺨﺮاج ﻫﺮ ﭼﻪ ﺳﺮﻳﻊ ﺗﺮ ذﺧﺎﻳﺮ اﻳﻦ ﻣﻴﺎدﻳﻦ ﺷﺪه اﺳﺖ. ﺑﺎ اﻓﺰاﻳﺶ ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎي ﮔﺎز ﻃﺒﻴﻌﻲ ﻧﻴﺰ، ﻛﺸﻮرﻫﺎي ﻣﻨﻄﻘﻪ ﻛﻪ داراي ﻣﻴﺎدﻳﻦ ﻣﺸﺘﺮك ﻣﻲ ﺑﺎﺷﻨﺪ، ﺑﺎ ﺳﺮﻣﺎﻳﻪ ﮔﺬاري ﻫﺎي ﻛﻼن ﺳﻌﻲ در اﻓﺰاﻳﺶ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﺧﻮد از اﻳﻦ ﻣﻴﺎدﻳﻦ دارﻧﺪ ﻛﻪ اﻳﻦ اﻣﺮ ﻋﺎﻣﻞ اﻳﺠﺎد ﻛﺸﻤﻜﺶ ﻫﺎ و ﻣﻨﺎزﻋﺎت در ﺧﻠﻴﺞ ﻓﺎرس ﺷﺪه اﺳﺖ [1 ، ﺻﺺ ـ70 82 ]. ﺗﺪاوم اﻳﻦ روﻧﺪ و ﺑﻬﺮه ﺑﺮداري ﺑﻲ روﻳﻪ ﻳﻚ ﺟﺎﻧﺒﻪ اﻳﻦ ﻛﺸﻮرﻫﺎ ﺑﻪ ﻣﺮور زﻣﺎن ﺑﺎﻋﺚ از ﺑﻴﻦ رﻓﺘﻦ ﺗﻮازن اﻳﻦ ﻣﻴﺎدﻳﻦ ﻣﻲ ﺷﻮ د [2 ، ص 113 .] اﻳﺮان ﻧﻴﺰ (ﻛﻪ ﺑﻴﺸﺘﺮﻳﻦ ﻣﺮز را در ﺧﻠﻴﺞ ﻓﺎرس دارد و ﻣﻴﺎدﻳﻦ ﻣﺸﺘﺮك ﮔﺎز ﻣﺘﻌﺪدي ﺑﻪ ﺻﻮرت ﻣﺸﺘﺮك ﺑﺎ دﻳﮕﺮ ﻛﺸﻮرﻫﺎي ﻣﻨﻄﻘﻪ دارد) از اﻳﻦ ﻗﺎﻋﺪه ﻣﺴﺘﺜﻨﺎ ﻧﻴﺴﺖ و ﻋﺪم ﺑﻬﺮه ﺑﺮداري و ﺗﻮﺳﻌﻪ ﺑﻪ ﻣﻮﻗﻊ اﻳﻦ ﻣﻴﺎدﻳﻦ ﺗﻮﺳﻂ اﻳﺮان و ﺑﺮداﺷﺖ زودﺗﺮ و ﺑﻴﺸﺘﺮ دﻳﮕﺮ ﻛﺸﻮرﻫﺎ از اﻳﻦ ﻣﻴﺎد ﻳﻦ، ﻋﻼوه ﺑﺮ ﻣﺘﻀﺮر ﺷﺪن ﻣﻴﻠﻴﻮن ﻫﺎ دﻻر در روز ﺑﺮاي اﻳﺮان، ﻣﺴﺌﻠﻪ ﻣﻬﺎﺟﺮت ﮔﺎز را ﺑﻪ وﺟﻮد ﺧﻮاﻫﺪ آورد ﻛﻪ اﻳﻦ ﭘﺪﻳﺪه ﺑﺎﻋﺚ ﻣﻲ ﺷﻮد ﻛﺸﻮرﻫﺎﻳﻲ ﻛﻪ در ﺣﺎل ﺑﻬﺮه ﺑﺮداري ﻳﻚ ﺟﺎﻧﺒﻪ ﻫﺴﺘﻨﺪ، از ﺳﻬﻢ ﺑﻴﺸﺘﺮي ﺑﻬﺮه ﻣﻨﺪ ﺷﻮﻧﺪ. در ﻧﺘﻴﺠﻪ رﻗﺎﺑﺖ ﺑﺮاي ﺑﻬﺮه ﺑﺮداري ﺑﻴﺸﺘﺮ از اﻳﻦ ﻣﻴﺎدﻳﻦ و ﻋﺪم ﺑ ﻬﺮه ﺑﺮداري ﻫﻤﺰﻣﺎن، ارﺗﺒﺎﻃﺎت ﺳﻴﺎﺳﻲ ﻣﻨﻄﻘﻪ را Downloaded from mri.modares.ac.ir at 23:12 IRST on Saturday September 25th 2021 ﺗﺤﺖ ﺗﺄﺛﻴﺮ ﻗﺮار ﻣﻲ دﻫﺪ [1 ، ص ].82 ].82 از ﻣﺴﺎﺋﻞ و ﻣﺸﻜﻼﺗﻲ ﻛﻪ در ﺣﺎل ﺣﺎﺿﺮ ﮔﺮﻳﺒﺎﻧﮕﻴﺮ اﻳﺮان در ﻣﻴﺎدﻳﻦ ﻣﺸﺘﺮك ﻣﻲ ﺑﺎﺷﺪ و ﻧﺎﺷﻲ از ﻋﺪم ﻫﻤﻜﺎري ﻛﺸﻮرﻫﺎي ﻫﻤﺴﺎﻳﻪ ﺑﺎ اﻳﺮان اﺳﺖ، ﻣﻲ ﺗﻮان ﺑﻪ ﻛﺎﻫﺶ درآﻣﺪ ﺣﺎﺻﻞ از ﺑﺮداﺷﺖ از ﻣﺨﺎزن ﻣﺸﺘﺮك در ﺳ ﻨﺠﺶ ﺑﺎ ﻛﺸﻮرﻫﺎي ﻫﻤﺴﺎﻳﻪ، ﻧﺒﻮد ﺗﻮازن در ﻣﻌﺎﻣﻼت ﺳﻴﺎﺳﻲ ـ اﻗﺘﺼﺎدي ﻣﺮﺗﺒﻂ ﺑﺎ ﺣﻮزه ﻫﺎي ﻣﺸﺘﺮك در ﺑﺮاﺑﺮ ﻛﺸﻮرﻫﺎي ﻫﻤﺴﺎﻳﻪ، ﺑﺮداﺷﺖ 26 26 ﭘﮋوﻫﺶ ﻫﺎي ﻣﺪﻳﺮﻳﺖ در اﻳﺮان ــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــ دوره 20 ، ﺷﻤﺎره 3 ، ﭘﺎﻳﻴﺰ 1395 ﺣﺪاﻛﺜﺮي و ﺑﻲ ﺿﺎﺑﻄﻪ ﻛﺸﻮرﻫﺎي ﻫﻤﺴﺎﻳﻪ از ﻣﺨﺎزن ﻣﺸﺘﺮك و ﻧﺒﻮد اﻣﻜﺎن ﺑﻬﺮه ﺑﺮداري ﻣﻨﺎﺳﺐ اﻳﺮان از اﻳﻦ ﺣﻮزه ﻫﺎ ﭘﺲ از ﮔﺬﺷﺖ ﻣﺪﺗﻲ و ﻧﻴﺰ ﻏﻴﺮ ﻗﺎﺑﻞ اﺳﺘﺤﺼﺎ ل ﺷﺪن ﺑﺨﺶ ﭼﺸﻤﮕﻴﺮي از ﻣﺨﺰن ﺑﺮ اﺛﺮ ﺑﺮداﺷﺖ ﺑﻲ ﺿﺎﺑﻄﻪ اﺷﺎره ﻛﺮد. ﮔﺬﺷﺘﻪ از اﻳﻦ، در ﺳﺎﻳﻪ ﺗﺤﺮﻳﻢ ﻫﺎي ﻧﻔﺘﻲ ﻏﺮب در ﻣﻮرد اﻳﺮان و دﺳﺘﺮﺳﻲ ﻧﺪاﺷﺘﻦ اﻳﺮان ﺑﻪ ﻓﻨĤوري ﻫﺎي روز در زﻣﻴﻨﻪ ﻫﺎي ﮔﻮﻧﺎﮔﻮن اﻛﺘﺸﺎف، ﺣﻔّﺎري و ﺑﻬﺮه ﺑﺮداري از ﻣﺨﺎزن ﻧﻔﺘﻲ در ﻣﻨﻄﻘﻪ ﺧﻠﻴﺞ ﻓﺎرس و ﺑﻪ وﻳﮋه ﻣﺨﺎزن ﻣﺸ ﺘﺮك، ﻣﺸﻜﻼﺗﻲ ﺑﻪ ﺑﺎر ﺧﻮاﻫﺪ آﻣﺪ ﻛﻪ ﻧﺎدﻳﺪه ﮔﺮﻓﺘﻦ آﻧﻬﺎ ﻣﻲ ﺗﻮاﻧﺪ ﻣﻮﺟﺐ ﺑﺮ ﻫﻢ ﺧﻮردن ﺗﻮازن ﻧﻴﺮوﻫﺎ در زﻣﻴﻨﻪ ﻫﺎي ﻣﺮﺗﺒﻂ ﺑﺎ ﻣﺨﺎزن ﻣﺸﺘﺮك ﻧﻔﺖ و ﮔﺎز در ﻣﻨﻄﻘﻪ ﺧﻠﻴﺞ ﻓﺎرس ﺑﻪ ﺳﻮد ﻛﺸﻮرﻫﺎي ﻫﻤﺴﺎﻳﻪ ﺷﻮد [3 ، ﺻﺺ 163 - 164 ]. ]. ﺑﺎ اﻳﻦ ﺣﺎل، ﻫﻤﻜﺎري در ﺑﺮداﺷﺖ از ﻣﻴﺎدﻳﻦ ﻣﺸﺘﺮك ﺻﺮﻓﻪ ﺟﻮﻳﻲ ﻫﺎي اﻗﺘﺼﺎدي و اﻣﻨﻴﺖ ﻣﺨﺎزن و ﻣﺤﻴﻂ زﻳﺴﺖ را ﺑﻪ ﻫﻤﺮاه دارد. ﻳﻜﻲ از ﻣﺴﺎﺋﻞ ﻣﻬﻢ و ﻣﻮرد ﺗﻮﺟﻪ در ﺑﻬﺮه ﺑﺮداري از ﻣﺨﺎزن ﻧﻴﺰ، ﻣﺪﻳﺮﻳﺖ ﺻﻴﺎﻧﺘﻲ آﻧﻬﺎﺳﺖ ﻛﻪ ﺑﺎ ﻫﺪف ﻛﺎﻫﺶ ﺧﻄﺮ ﭘﺬﻳﺮي ، اﻓﺰاﻳﺶ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﻧﻔﺖ و ﮔﺎز، اﻓﺰاﻳﺶ ﺑﺎزﻳﺎﻓﺖ و ﻛﺎﻫﺶ ﻫﺰﻳﻨﻪ ﻫﺎي ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﺻﻮرت ﻣﻲ ﭘﺬﻳﺮد. در اﻳﻦ راﺳﺘﺎ ﺷﻨﺎﺧﺖ ﻣﺨﺎزن و اﺛﺒﺎت ﻣﺪل و ﻋﻤﻠﻜﺮد آﻧﻬﺎ ﺑﺮ اﺳﺎس روش ﻫﺎي ﻋﻠﻤﻲ، از ﻣﺴﺎﺋﻞ ﺑﺴﻴﺎر ﻣﻬﻢ اﺳﺖ [ 2 ، 2 ﺻﺺ 113 - 114 ]. ]. ﻣﺴﺎﺋﻞ ﺗﺌﻮري درام1 ﻫﻤﭽﻮن ﻣﺴﺎﺋﻞ ﻧﻈﺮﻳﻪ ﺑﺎزي در ﻣﺤﻴﻂ ﺗﻌﺎرض ﻗﺮار دار ﻧﺪ. از آﻧﺠﺎ ﻛﻪ ﺗﺼﻤﻴﻢ ﺑﻪ اﺗﺨﺎذ اﺳﺘﺮاﺗﮋي در ﻣﻮرد ﻣﻴﺪان ﻣﺸﺘﺮك اﻳﺮان و ﻗﻄﺮ ﻣﺒﺘﻨﻲ ﺑﺮ رﻓﺘﺎر رﻗﺎﺑﺘﻲ اﺳﺖ، ﻧﻈﺮﻳﻪ ﺑﺎزي ﺑﺮاي ﭼﻨﻴﻦ رﻓﺘﺎري ﺑﺴﻴﺎر ﻣﻨﺎﺳﺐ اﺳﺖ. رﻳﺸﻪ ﺗﺌﻮري درام ﻧﻴﺰ ﺑﻪ ﻣﺘﺎﮔﻴﻢ ﺑﺮﻣﻲ ﮔﺮدد ﻛﻪ ﻳﻜﻲ از اﻧﻮاع ﺑﺎزي ﻫﺎي ﻣﻄﺮح ﺷﺪه در ﺗﺌﻮري ﺑﺎزي اﺳﺖ. ﺗﺌﻮري درام ﻣﺪﻋﻲ اﺳﺖ ﻛﻪ ﻣﻜﻤﻠﻲ ﺑﺮاي ﺗﺌﻮري ﺑﺎزي اﺳﺖ و ﻧﻪ ﺟﺎﻳﮕﺰﻳﻦ آن. ﺗﺌﻮري درام اذﻋﺎن دارد ﻛﻪ در واﻗﻌﻴﺖ و ﺑﻪ ﻫﻨﮕﺎم ﺗﻌﺎرض، ﻋﻘﻼﻧﻴﺖ ﻣﺤﺾ وﺟﻮد ﻧﺨﻮاﻫﺪ داﺷﺖ و اﺣﺴﺎﺳﺎت ﻧﻴﺰ در ﻣﺴﻴﺮ ﺗﺼﻤﻴﻢ ﮔﻴﺮي ﻧﻘﺶ ﺧﻮاﻫﻨﺪ داﺷﺖ. از ﻃﺮف دﻳﮕﺮ ﻫﻤﭽﻮن دﻳﮕﺮ روﻳﻜﺮدﻫﺎي ﺗﺤﻘﻴﻖ در ﻋﻤﻠﻴﺎت Downloaded from mri.modares.ac.ir at 23:12 IRST on Saturday September 25th 2021 ﻧﺮم ﺳﻌﻲ دارد ﺗﺎ ﺻﻮرت ﻣﺴﺎﺋﻞ ﺑﻪ ﺧﻮﺑﻲ ﺷﻨﺎﺳﺎﻳﻲ و ﻣﺪل ﺷﻮﻧﺪ و ﻧﻴﺰ ﺑﺮاي ﻣﻮاﺟﻬﻪ ﺑﺎ ﻋﺪم اﻃﻤﻴﻨﺎن ﺣﺎﻟﺖ ﻫﺎي ﻣﺨﺘﻠﻒ آﻳﻨﺪه و ﺳﻨﺎرﻳﻮﻫﺎي ﭘﻴﺶ رو ﻣﻄﺎﻟﻌﻪ ﺷﻮﻧﺪ. ﺑﻨﺎﺑﺮاﻳﻦ از ﻗﺎﻟﺐ ﺑﻨﺪي ﻣﺴﺌﻠﻪ ﺑﻪ ﻃﻮري ﻛﻪ داﺋﻤﺎً در ﺣﺎل ﺻﺮﻓﻨﻈﺮ ﻛﺮدن از ﺑﺨﺶ ﻫﺎي ﻣﺨﺘﻠﻒ و دور ﺷﺪن از واﻗﻌﻴﺖ ﻫﺎ ﺑﺎﺷﺪ، اﺟﺘﻨﺎب ﻣﻲ ﻛﻨﺪ. ﻧﺘﻴﺠﻪ اﻳﻦ ﻣﻔﺮوﺿﺎت ا ﻳﻦ اﺳﺖ ﻛﻪ ﺑﻪ ﺟﺎي ﺑﻬﻴﻨﻪ ﺳﺎزي (ﻫﻤﭽﻮن ﺗﺌﻮري ﺑﺎزي)، ﺑﻪ اﻛﺘﺸﺎف، ﻳﺎدﮔﻴﺮي و اﻟﺰام ﻣﻲ ﭘﺮدازد و از اﻳﻦ ﻃﺮﻳﻖ اﻣﻜﺎن ﺑﻴﺎن ﻃﻴﻒ وﺳﻴﻌﻲ از 1 Drama Theory 27 ﻋﺎدل آذر و ﻫﻤﻜﺎران ـــــ ـــ ــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــ ــ واﻛﺎوي ﺗﻘﺎﺑﻞ در ﺑﺮداﺷﺖ از ﻣﻴﺪان ... ... دﻳﺪﮔﺎه ﻫﺎي ﻣﺘﻤﺎﻳﺰ را ﻓﺮاﻫﻢ ﻣﻲ ﻧﻤﺎﻳﺪ ﻛﻪ اﻫﺪاف ﭼﻨﺪﮔﺎﻧﻪ و ﻣﺘﻨﺎﻗﺾ را ﺑﺪون ﺣﺬف و ﻳﺎ ﺗﻘﻠﻴﻞ آﻧﻬﺎ ﺑﻪ ﻣﻌﻴﺎرﻫﺎي ﻣﺎﻟﻲ در ﺑﺮﻣﻲ ﮔﻴﺮد [4 ، ﺻﺺ ـ10 ].40 ].40 در ﭘﮋوﻫﺶ ﺣﺎﺿﺮ ﻧﻴﺰ ﺑﻪ دﻟﻴﻞ ﻋﺪم ﻣﻄﺎﻟﻌﻪ ﺟﺪي و اﺑﻬﺎﻣﺎت در ﻣﻮرد اﺑﻌﺎد ﻣﺴﺌﻠﻪ، وﺟﻮد ذﻳﻨﻔﻌﺎن ﮔﺴﺘﺮده و ﮔﺰﻳﻨﻪ ﻫﺎ، ﺗﺮﺟﻴﺤﺎت و ﺳﻨﺎرﻳﻮﻫﺎي ﻣﺘﻌﺪد ﻛﻪ ﻛﻤﻲ ﺳﺎزي آن را ﺑﺴﻴﺎر دﺷﻮار و دور از واﻗﻌﻴﺖ ﻣﻲ ﺳﺎزد، ﺳﻌﻲ ﺷﺪه اﺳﺖ ﺗﺎ ﺑﺎ ﺑﻪ ﻛﺎرﮔﻴﺮي ﺗﺌﻮري درام ﻋﻼوه ﺑﺮ ﻣﻌﺮﻓﻲ اﻳﻦ روﻳﻜﺮد ﺑﻪ اﺛﺒﺎت ﺗﻮاﻧﻤﻨﺪي ﻫﺎي آن ﭘﺮداﺧﺘﻪ ﺷﻮد. .2 ﻣﺪﻟﺴﺎزي و ﺣﻞ ﺗﻌﺎرض2 ﻣﺪﻟﺴﺎزي و ﺣﻞ ﺗﻌﺎرض ﻳﻜﻲ از ﺣﻮزه ﻫﺎي ﻣﻮرد ﻋﻼﻗﻪ ﭘﮋوﻫﺸﮕﺮان اﺳﺖ ﻛﻪ ﺑﺴﻴﺎري از رﺷﺘﻪ ﻫﺎ ﺑﻪ آن ﭘﺮداﺧﺘﻪ و روﻳﻜﺮدﻫﺎي ﻣﺨﺘﻠﻔﻲ در آن ﻣﻄﺮح اﺳﺖ. ﺗﺌﻮري درام ﺑﻪ ﻋﻨﻮان ﻳﻜﻲ از اﻳﻦ روﺷ ﻬﺎي ﻣﺪﻟﺴﺎزي و ﺣﻞ ﺗﻌﺎرض ﻣﻄﺮح ﻣﻲ ﺑﺎﺷﺪ ﻛﻪ ﺑﺎ ﺑﻪ ﻛﺎر ﮔﻴﺮي ادﺑﻴﺎت ﺗﺌﻮري ﺑﺎزي ﺑﻪ ﺳﺎﺧﺖ دﻫﻲ ﻣﺴﺌﻠﻪ و ﺷﻨﺎﺳﺎﻳﻲ ﻣﻌﻀﻼت ﭘﺮداﺧﺘﻪ و ﺳﺮاﻧﺠﺎم راﻫﻜﺎرﻫﺎي ﻛﻠﻲ ﺑﺮاي ﺧﺮوج از ﺣﺎﻟﺖ ﺗﻘﺎﺑﻞ و ﻣﻌﻀﻼت و دﺳﺘﻴﺎﺑﻲ ﺑﻪ ﺷﺮاﻳﻂ ﻫﻤﻜﺎري اراﺋﻪ ﻣﻲ دﻫﺪ 5[ ، ص 734 .] .] روﻳﻜﺮدﻫﺎي رﺳﻤﻲ ﻣﺪﻟﺴﺎزي و ﺣﻞ ﺗﻌﺎرض ﺷﺎﻣﻞ ﻓﻨﻮن ﻛﻼﺳﻴﻚ ﺗﺌﻮري ﺑﺎزي ﻫﺎ، روش ﻫﺎي ﺑﺮ ﻣﺒﻨﺎي ﻣﺘﺎﮔﻴﻢ و روش ﻫﺎي دﻳﮕﺮي ﭼﻮن ﺗﻜﻨﻴﻚ ﻫﺎي ﺗﻘﺴﻴﻢ ﻋﺎدﻻﻧﻪ3 ، روش ﻫﺎي رأي ﮔﻴﺮي4 و روﺷ ﻠﻮژي ﻛﻴﻮ5 در ﺷﻜﻞ ذﻳﻞ ﺑﺎ ﺗﻮﺟﻪ ﺑﻪ ﭼﻬﺎر ﻣﻌﻴﺎر ﺑﺎ ﻫﻢ ﻣﻘﺎﻳﺴﻪ ﺷﺪه اﻧﺪ. از اﻳﻦ ﺑﻴﻦ، ﺗﺠﺰﻳﻪ و ﺗﺤﻠﻴﻞ ﻣﺘﺎﮔﻴﻢ ﻧﺨﺴﺘﻴﻦ ﺑﺎر ﺗﻮﺳﻂ ﻫﺎوارد در 1971 اراﺋﻪ ﺷﺪ و ﺑﻌﺪﻫﺎ ﺗﻮﺳﻂ ﻓﺮاﺳﺮ6 و ﻫﺎﻳﭙﻞ7 ﺑﺎ ﻋﻨﻮان ﺗﺠﺰﻳﻪ و ﺗﺤﻠﻴﻞ ﺗﻌﺎرض8 ﺗﻮﺳﻌﻪ و ﺑﻬﺒﻮد ﻳﺎﻓﺖ. ﺑﻌﺪ از آن ﻧﻴﺰ ﺗﺠﺰﻳﻪ و ﺗﺤﻠﻴﻞ ﺗﻌﺎرض ﺗﻮﺳﻂ ﻛﻴﻠﮕﻮر9 و ﻫﻤﻜﺎران و ﻫﻤﭽﻨﻴﻦ ﻓﻨﮓ 10 و دﻳﮕﺮان ﺗﻮﺳﻌﻪ ﻗﺎﺑﻞ ﺗﻮﺟﻬﻲ داﺷﺖ و آﻧﻬﺎ ﺗﻮاﻧﺴﺘﻨﺪ روش ﺷﻨﺎﺳﻲ ﻣﺪل ﮔﺮاف ﺑﺮاي ﺣﻞ ﺗﻀﺎد 11 اراﺋﻪ دﻫﻨﺪ ﻛﻪ ﻳﻚ ﺗﺌﻮري ﺑﺮ ﻣﺒ ﻨﺎي ﮔﺮاف اﺳﺖ. ﻳﻜﻲ دﻳﮕﺮ از ﺗﻜﻨﻴﻚ ﻫﺎي ﻣﺮﺗﺒﻂ ﺑﺎ ﺗﺠﺰﻳﻪ و ﺗﺤﻠﻴﻞ ﻣﺘﺎﮔﻴﻢ، ﺗﺌﻮري درام Downloaded from mri.modares.ac.ir at 23:12 IRST on Saturday September 25th 2021 اﺳﺖ ﻛﻪ در آن اﺳﺘﻌﺎره 12 از ﻳﻚ درام ﺑﻪ ﻛﺎر ﮔﺮﻓﺘﻪ ﺷﺪه اﺳﺖ ﺗﺎ ﻳﻚ ﺗﻌﺎرض را ﻧﺸﺎن دﻫﺪ ﻫﻤﭽﻨﺎن ﻛﻪ از ﻳﻚ ﻣﻌﻀﻞ 13 ﺑﻪ دﻳﮕﺮي ﺗﻜﺎﻣﻞ ﭘﻴﺪا ﻣﻲ ﻛﻨﺪ ﺗﺎ ﺑﻪ راه ﺣﻞ دﺳﺖ ﭘﻴﺪا ﻛﻨﺪ. ﺗﻔﺎوت ﻋﻤﺪه و ﺟﺪا ﻛﻨﻨﺪه ر وش ﻫﺎي ﺑﺮ ﻣﺒﻨﺎي ﻣﺘﺎﮔﻴﻢ از دﻳﮕﺮ روش ﻫﺎ، ﻗﺎﺑﻠﻴﺖ آﻧﻬﺎ ﺑﺮاي ﻧﺸﺎن دادن اوﻟﻮﻳﺖ ﻫﺎي ﻧﺴﺒﻲ 14 ، ﺗﺼﻤﻴﻢ ﺑﻪ ﻫﻤﻜﺎري 15 ، و اﻧﻌﻄﺎف در ﺟﻬﺖ ﺣﺮﻛﺖ 16 اﺳﺖ. ﻫﻤﺎن ﻃﻮر ﻛﻪ در ﺟﺪول 1 ﻧﺸﺎن داده ﺷﺪه اﺳﺖ، ﻓﻨﻮن ﻛﻼﺳﻴﻚ ﺗﺌﻮري ﺑﺎزي ﻫﺎ ﺑﺮ ﻣﺒﻨﺎي ﻓﺮض اوﻟﻮﻳﺖ ﻫﺎي 2 67543 ConflictFair division m odeling techniques and analysis 12119108 HipelFraserQ-MethodologyVoting procedures 16151413 KilgourConflict MetaphorGraphFang Modelanalysis for Co nflict Resolution (GMC R) FlexibleTheRelativeDilemm Decision aorderpreference to of coo m oves perate 28 28 ﭘﮋوﻫﺶ ﻫﺎي ﻣﺪﻳﺮﻳﺖ در اﻳﺮان ــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــــ دوره 20 ، ﺷﻤﺎره 3 ، ﭘﺎﻳﻴﺰ 1395 ﻛﺎردﻳﻨﺎل 17 ﻫﻤﭽﻮن ﻣﻘﺪار ﻣﻄﻠﻮﺑﻴﺖ 18 اﺳﺘﻮ ار ﻫﺴﺘﻨﺪ ﺗﺎ اوﻟﻮﻳﺖ ﻫﺎ را ﺑﻪ ﺗﺼﻤﻴﻢ ﮔﻴﺮان ﺑﺮاي ﺣﺎﻻت ﻳﺎ ﺳﻨﺎرﻳﻮﻫﺎﻳﻲ 19 ﻛﻪ ﻣﻲ ﺗﻮاﻧﻨﺪ در ﺗﻌﺎرض رخ ﺑﺪﻫﻨﺪ، ﻧﺸﺎن دﻫﻨﺪ.
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