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O Financiamento a Arrendadores De Aeronaves – Modelo Do Negócio E Introdução À Análise De Risco Do Leasing Aeronáutico

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O Financiamento a Arrendadores De Aeronaves – Modelo Do Negócio E Introdução À Análise De Risco Do Leasing Aeronáutico Biblioteca Digital O financiamento a arrendadores de aeronaves – modelo do negócio e introdução à análise de risco do leasing aeronáutico Sérgio Bittencourt Varella Gomes, Paulus Vinicius da Rocha Fonseca e Vanessa de Sá Queiroz http://www.bndes.gov.br/bibliotecadigital Aeronáutica BNDES Setorial 37, p. 129-172 O financiamento a arrendadores de aeronaves – modelo do negócio e introdução à análise de risco do leasing aeronáutico Sérgio Bittencourt Varella Gomes Paulus Vinicius da Rocha Fonseca Vanessa de Sá Queiroz* Resumo Pouco mais de um terço da frota mundial de aeronaves comerciais opera hoje, nas empresas aéreas, sob o regime de leasing operacional. Como a maioria das companhias aéreas passou a fazer leasing para toda a sua frota ou parte dela, as aircraft leasing companies (ALC)1 se tornaram importantes atores (players) do setor, demandando financiamento para a aquisição de aeronaves. Representam, assim, oportunidade de negócio não apenas para os fabricantes de aeronaves, mas também para bancos, mercados de capi- tais e agências de crédito à exportação, como é o caso do BNDES Exim. Esse tipo de negócio traz vantagens não apenas para as empresas aéreas, que passam a dispor de aeronaves sem ter de necessariamente comprá-las, mas também para agentes financeiros, uma vez que as ALC podem mitigar os riscos de crédito normalmente associados às empresas do setor aéreo. * Respectivamente, gerente do Departamento de Comércio Exterior 1 (DECEX 1) da Área de Comércio ([WHULRU $(; HHQJHQKHLURDHURQiXWLFR ,7$ 3K'HP'LQkPLFDGH9RR &UDQ¿HOG,QJODWHUUD contador do DECEX 1/AEX e graduado em Ciências Contábeis (UnB) com MBA em Controladoria e Finanças (Ucam); administradora do DECEX1/AEX e graduada em administração (PUC-RJ), advogada (Ucam), mestre em gestão empresarial (FGV-RJ/Ebape). 1 Não confundir com Air Lease Corporation. 130 Introdução Hoje, cerca de 35% das aeronaves do mundo são de propriedade de ALC, e a tendência é que esse número aumente. O mercado de leasing de aerona- ves cresceu tanto nas últimas décadas, que chegou a se tornar significativo aeronáutico para fabricantes, bancos, mercado de capitais e até mesmo para as agências de crédito à exportação (US Ex-Im Bank, BNDES Exim, COFACE etc.), leasing que vêm sendo demandadas a financiar cada vez mais aeronaves para as ALC. Sendo assim, parece inevitável que o BNDES Exim venha a ter cada vez mais esse tipo de empresa como beneficiária de seus créditos, sobretu- do porque os E-Jets da Empresa Brasileira de Aeronáutica S.A. (Embraer) parecem ser uma boa opção para que as ALC diversifiquem seu portfólio, baseado, até recentemente, apenas em aeronaves Boeing e Airbus. O presente artigo procura, pelo notável crescimento do setor, caracterizá- -lo, apresentando um breve histórico do negócio de leasing operacional, as vantagens e desvantagens trazidas por sua utilização para as empresas aéreas e introdução à análise de risco do à análise de risco e introdução e os fundamentos do modelo de negócios das ALC. Além disso, destaca os aspectos fundamentais a serem considerados em operações de financia- mentos às ALC e indicadores para a análise de operações e a avaliação do risco de crédito de ALC. O financiamento a arrendadores de aeronaves – modelo do negócio de aeronaves a arrendadores O financiamento Evolução histórica recente Como um novo tipo de negócio, o leasing operacional de aeronaves para o transporte aéreo comercial surgiu nos Estados Unidos da América (EUA), em 1973, com a fundação da International Lease Finance Corp. (ILFC), por Steven Udvar-Hazy. A isso, seguiu-se, em 1975, a criação da Guiness Peat Aviation (GPA), na República da Irlanda, pelo executivo de aviação irlan- dês Tony Ryan – o qual, na década seguinte, criou a empresa aérea de bai- xos custos/baixas tarifas Ryanair, hoje um verdadeiro paradigma do setor. O rápido crescimento do leasing operacional como novo ramo de ne- gócios ocorreu, assim, durante as décadas de 1980 e 1990. A participação global de aeronaves comerciais cuja propriedade ou administração fosse de um arrendador (operating lessor), que girava em torno de 4% na déca- da de 1980, saltou para quase 18% na década de 1990. Esse crescimento deveu-se ao fato de que uma parcela maior das companhias aéreas passou a fazer leasing para toda ou parte de sua frota: o percentual passou de 59% 131 | Aeronáutica em 1986 para 85% em 1999. Atualmente, cerca de 35% das aeronaves do mundo são de propriedade de ALC, e esse número tende a aumentar. O Gráfico 1 ilustra o contínuo crescimento do percentual de aeronaves da frota mundial que estão no mer- cado sob o controle de ALC. Gráfico 1 | Aeronaves no portfólio de ALC 8.000 40 7.000 35 6.000 30 5.000 25 % 4.000 20 3.000 15 Número de aeronaves 2.000 10 1.000 5 0 0 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Número de aeronaves % lessor da frota total Fonte: Elaboração própria, com base em dados de Ascend, Avitas Company, Wings e Deutsche Bank estimates. Esse crescimento contínuo do setor de leasing provoca um debate re- corrente no mercado sobre a melhor estratégia a ser perseguida pelas ALC. Alguns afirmam, com base em observações empíricas, que as ALC só têm um caminho: crescer até um ponto em que seus portfólios de aeronaves VHUmR³TXHEUDGRV´HPHPSUHVDVPHQRUHVTXHSRUVXDYH]FUHVFHUmRLQ- definidamente [Vermeulen (2012)]. Já outros reconhecem que há, na ver- dade, dois caminhos: este, do crescimento (balizado, naturalmente, pela lucratividade), e o de simples consolidação de valor (e da lucratividade) para o acionista, o que em geral significa crescimento moderado, porém com renovação perene da frota de aeronaves. No entanto, mesmo no se- gundo caso, a preferência dos analistas de mercado pelo crescimento é clara [Morgan Stanley (2012)]. 132 Embora não pareça haver ainda um veredicto definitivo, o fato é que o mercado de leasing de aeronaves já atingiu uma escala em que passou a ser significativo não apenas para os fabricantes de aeronaves – que dis- põem assim de um canal a mais para escoar sua produção –, mas também para os bancos e o mercado de capitais. Algumas das ALC de grande porte aeronáutico realizaram, nos últimos anos, como parte de suas estratégias corporativas, lançamento de ações em bolsas de valores (IPO), que despertaram interesse leasing considerável de investidores, em geral, e de bancos de investimento (Morgan Stanley, J.P. Morgan, Deutsche Bank etc.), em particular. Além disso, as agências de crédito à exportação (US Ex-Im Bank, BNDES Exim, COFACE etc.) vêm sendo demandadas a financiar cada vez mais aeronaves para as ALC e, nos anos recentes, houve a adição de quantidades substanciais de jatos regionais – a família de E-Jets da Embraer e os CRJs da Bombardier – em seus portfólios [Airfinance Journal (2012)]. Vantagens e desvantagens do leasing operacional para as e introdução à análise de risco do à análise de risco e introdução empresas aéreas As vantagens do leasing operacional para as companhias aéreas remetem a algumas particularidades do setor. Conforme o registro histórico, empresas O financiamento a arrendadores de aeronaves – modelo do negócio de aeronaves a arrendadores O financiamento de transporte aéreo, em geral, trabalham com margens de lucro extrema- mente baixas. Para um setor que acumula, hoje, vendas globais da ordem de US$ 480 bilhões a US$ 600 bilhões a.a., o resultado líquido situa-se em valores, em geral, diminutos de lucro ou prejuízo, ou seja, oscila em torno de zero. O Gráfico 2 mostra essa particularidade bastante distinta do setor. Além disso, o negócio do transporte aéreo requer uma alta mobilização de capital, representado pela frota de aeronaves a serviço da transportadora. Nesse sentido, são consideráveis os custos fixos e os esforços de captação de recursos (funding) para se pôr uma aeronave em operação, cujos des- dobramentos são diretos sobre os resultados do setor. A intensa utilização diária do ativo (menor tempo em solo das aeronaves – reduced block time) e a excelência na gestão operacional são os principais objetivos que vêm sendo buscados pelas companhias aéreas. Já pelo lado financeiro, o monitoramento do fluxo de caixa está entre as principais variáveis de análise no que tange a qualquer empresa aérea. Nesse contexto, a seleção/aquisição de aeronaves constitui peça fundamental para a gestão dos custos e, consequentemente, para o fluxo de caixa a ser gerado pela empresa. A gestão desses ativos (asset management) vem desempenhan- 133 | Aeronáutica do papel fundamental na cadeia de valor do mercado de transporte aéreo. Gráfico 2 | Lucro líquido e margem EBIT consolidados para todo o setor de empresas aéreas do mundo 25 8 20 6 15 4 10 5 2 % 0 0 2011 US$ bilhões 1997 1995 2001 2010 1998 1999 1996 2007 2003 2005 2002 2004 2008 2006 2009 -5 2000 -2 -10 -4 -15 -20 -6 Lucro líquido (US$ bilhões) Margem EBIT (%) Fontes: IATA e Deutsche Bank estimates. Ao optar pela aquisição direta de uma aeronave, por exemplo, a com- panhia terá pela frente uma série de custos (ownership costs) e incertezas a considerar. Entre os principais, estão: estruturação e remuneração do funding GDSDUWH¿QDQFLDGD±HPLVVmR de ações, debêntures, notes, empréstimo bancário, entre outros; programação dos desembolsos durante o período de construção da aeronave (pre-delivery payments – PDP) ou levantamento de outro ¿QDQFLDPHQWRSDUDHVVDVVDtGDVGHFDL[D incertezas sobre o valor residual da aeronave; e compatibilidade da aeronave ao padrão operacional consolidado da empresa. Todos esses fatores e encargos podem afetar negativamente o fluxo de caixa da empresa aérea e deixá-lo mais vulnerável às flutuações do merca- do. Nesse contexto, o leasing de aeronaves surgiu como importante fonte de capital, possibilitando à companhia aérea centrar esforços em sua atividade- 134 -fim e incorrer em despesas mais previsíveis e mais reduzidas em alguns casos (os pagamentos do aluguel).
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