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September/October 1978

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September/October 1978 September/October 1978 Volume XIV, Number 7 Price $1 .50 RIPON fOR(JM COMMENTARY COMMENTARY The Beginnings of a Breakthrough 2 Hispanics and the GOP 3 Mid-Ternl Congressional Elec tions of 1978: The Beginnings REPUBLICAN PROSPECTS AND THE of a Breakthrough MODERATES' FUTURE 4 VIEW FROM HAWKINS U1 aside all the doleful forecasts about the future of GORE the Re publican Party. The old elephant is staging a Pcomeback. On election night 1978, if the projections TIle Tax Revolt in the Ripon State by State Eleclion Preview borne out, Symposium 7 RepUblicans will: Gain two sea ts in Ihe U.s. Sena te; '78 ELECTION Gain I S to 2S in the I-I ouse of Representatives; PR EVIEW Gain five to seven governorships; 9 Gain control of both houses of the state legislature in several states that will face critical reapportionment POLITICAL decisions in 198 1. POTPOUR RI 42 Perhaps the most significanl developments in strengthening the Republican Party's base will show up in the gubernatorial and Senatorial results. II is quite possible tha t Republicans will go into the 1980 elections controlling the chief execu· li ve posts in states which together contain a clear majority of the country's population. It is likely that Republican Gover­ KIPON fOK'JM nors, generally of a moderate to progressive outlook, will Editor: Arthur M. Hill 1/ control the majority of our ten most populous Slates. Tight Executive Editor: Steven D. Livengood races underway in New York, Pennsylvania , California, Art Dbcctor: Elizabeth Lee (The Graphic Tuna) Ohio, Michigan and Massachusetts could easily tip either TilE RIPON FORUM is published monthly by the Ri(XIn way. While a shift of a few perce nt in either direction could Society, Inc. radically alter the outcome of these races, RepUblicans are In the publication, the Society hopes 10 provide a fOlum for fresh ideas, well researched proposals. and a spirit of creative in striking range of a major breakthrough. Republican Jack criticism and innovation in the Republican Pany. Manu­ Eckerd could win the Aorida gubernatorial contest. More· SCripts and photographs arc so liched, but do not represent over, the GOP seems likely to enjoy an infusion ofguberna· the views of the Sociery unless so stated. torial talent of national stature in several medium-sized Contents are copyrighted 0 1978 by the Ripon Society, [nc., 800 181h Sueet, N.W., Washington, D.C. 20006. sta tes, particulary Lee S. Dreyrus in Wi sconsin, Lamar Ale x· ander in Tennessee, and perhaps Albert Quie in Minnesota, Second class postage and fees [laid at Washington, D.C. and additional mailing offices. J. Glenn Beall in Maryland and Ronald Sarasin in Connec­ ticut. Subscription rates: SIS per ycar, $1.50 for students, service­ men, Peace Corps. Vista and other volunteers. Overseas. add S6. Please allow five weeks ror address changes. These possible gubernatorial vic tories could provide the GOP The Ripon Society, Inc., John C. Topping, Jr., President, is a a stage to prove its filness to govern the nation in 1980, Republican research and policy organization whose members Party allegiances are less often the product or a very ideo­ are business, academic. and plofemonal men and women. It is headquartered in Washinllton. D.C., with fifteen chap­ logical view of the world Ihan an expression of confidence ters . .several affiliated subchapters, and National Associate in a party's ability to represent the voter's self interest. If members throughout the United States. The SocielY is sup· ported by chapter dues, individual contributions. and reve­ RepUblicans are to overcome voter prejudices grounded in nues from its publications and conUDC! work. "the Hoover Depression," "the GOP's coziness with big business," "the Nixon·Agnew legacy" or "Watergate," the 2 Ripon Forum GOP must demonstrate its ability to serve their interests. ington and Abraham Ribicoff of Connecticut may retire. Re publicans in executive office are best positioned to build If they run , both may be handicapped by voter reaction to such vo ter confidence. their age. At least 6 of the 10 Republican seats at stake in 1980 appear relatively safe. In 1982 Democrats are likely to Perh aps as important as the promising gubernatorial outlook be defending 21 seats, Republicans 12, and In dependent is the significant improvement in the GOP's prospects in the Harry Byrd one. A further Republican pickup seems quite U.S. Senate races. Only a few months ago it looked as likely. though RepUblicans would be very lucky to hold their own in the Senate. Seventeen of the 38 Republican Senate seats The trends in the Senate should spell the end of liberal are at stake this year. Furthermore , five Republican incum· Democratic hegemony. In the 1980s the Senate is likely to bents have chosen to retire . The fa ct on that ha ve brightened be sha ped largely by innovative Republican progressives and the GOP's outlook in Senate races include: moderate conservatives such as Bob Packwood, Ri chard Lugar, John Danforth, John Chafee , Bill Cohen, John Heinz, Incredible disarray in the Democratic-Farmer Labor larry Pressler, Alan Simpson, and Harrison Schmitt. Party that may propel two moderate Minnesota Re­ publicans, Rudy Bosch witz and David Durenberger Yes , Virginia , there is a Santa Claus , and he is a Republican. to the Senate. Favorable voter rece ption to the candidacies and pe r· sonalities of Republicans such as Bill Cohen, Nancy Landon Kassebaum , Larry Pressler, and Thad Cochran. Hispanics and the GOP The development of effective campaigns by several se ri ously endangered conservative Southern Republi· can Senators. ust as black Americans came of age politically in the nineteen sixties Hispanic Americans are making a similar The Republican prospects for gains would be even higher J impact in the seventies . Political allegiances which may had Clifford Case , a strong fa vorite to win the ge neral elec· las t fo r the next generation are being formed. Perhaps more tion , not been upset in a sparsely attended GOP primary. than any other group, Hispanic Americans could be the cru­ Likewise the New Right's success in nominating unalloyed cial swing vote in future Presidential elections. The very poli­ conservatives for the Senate ma y provide a reprieve to other­ tically active Cuban American community has already shown wise vu lnerable Senators TIlOTllaS Mcint yre of New Hamp­ shire and Richard Clark of Iowa . At first glance the likely Republican gains of onl y a handful of seats in the Senate would seem to make little difference. Yet a gain of three of four seats would place Republicans TOPPING within realistic striking range of capturing control of the Sen­ and SHERER ate in 1980 or 1982. In 1980 Democrats are likely to be /torneys defending 23 seats; Republicans only 10. Some Demo· A al Law cratic incumben ts seem unusuall y vulnearble , particularly Mike Gravel in Alaska , John Culver in Iowa , John Durkin in Services available to individuals, New Hampshire and George McGovern in South Dakota. firm s or government agencies Several other Democratic Senators- Birch Bayh of Indiana, in these areas; Alan Cranston of California, Thomas Eagleton of Missouri , Gaylord Nelson of Wisconsin and Patrick Leahy of Ver· Neighborhood economic det:elopment mont- could be beaten if Republicans can recruit their Urban la wand hOllsing policy strongest talent to oppose them. Warren Magn uson of Wash· Minority business venture development Technology commercialization Illtemational delJelopmelll alld ill vestmellt Legislatil1e analysis and drafting M. ELIZABETH KENT Foreign Language capability: ATTORNEY AT LAW Indonesiall , Arabic. Spall;sh, is pleased to announce the establ ishment of French and Italian her own law practice • CONSTI TUTIONAL RIGHTS AND LIBERTIES No cha rge for initial consultation • FEDERAL ELECTION LAW • LE GIS LATIV E DR A FTING John C. Topping, Jr. Law Offices • GENERAL PRACTICE Samuel A. Sherer 800 Eighteenth Street, N.w. linda M. Topping Suile 910 Was hington, D.C. 20006 1730 Rhode Island Avenue, N.W. t202~ 457-0705 (202) 347· 714' Washinglon, D.C. 20036 September/October 1978 3 strong Republican leanings. Mexican Americans, while regis· Hispanic Republican Congressman. This paucity of Hispanic tered heavily as Democrats, have shown strong swing voting Republican Federal officeholders is a serious handicap to tendencies; in 1972 ha1f the Hispanic American electorate GOP efforts to build Hispanic strength. Three \'ery able in Texas voted for the Re publican Presidential ticket. Puerto Hispanic Republicans are given a reasonable chance of Ricans and others of Latin ancestry are similarl y open in winning in their races against Democratic incumbents. Per· their party allegiances. haps the most promiSing prospects are those of AI Cardenas, an able Cuban American attorney who is challenging Miami Richard Nixon was the first American President to recog· Democratic Congressman Claude Pepper. In California two nize the politica1 potential of Hispanic Americans. Hispanic outstanding Mexican American RepUblicans, Henry Ares Americans who were a1most totally unrepresented in policy and Paula Gordon, are running strong races respectively making posts in the Kennedy and Johnson Administrations against Democratic Congressmen George Danielson and were appointed to head government anti·po\'erty efforts and George Miller . With sufficient funds upsets are possible in small business and minority business programs. Yet sad1y both these races. President Ford failed to capitalize on this Republican ad· van tage. Jimmy Carter's eighty percent plus share of the His· 2. Holding the Democrats' feet to the fire for failure to de· panic vote was a testament to Republican shortsightedness. liver on campaign promises to the Hispanic community. Chairman Brock, Senator Baker, Congressman Rhodes and Aside from cutting a few tapes in broken Spanish, however, other Republican leaders could spotli ght deficiencies in Car· Jimmy Carter has done little for Hispanic Americans since ter Administration performance on a variety of issues that the election.
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