EGYPT Revolutionary fallout Egypt faces early security challenges As post-revolutionary Egypt slowly shapes a new political landscape, the country faces a resurgent security challenge from extremist groups. David Schenker examines recent incidents, security force capabilities, and the extent to which the Islamist political blocs in Egypt might influence the country’s domestic and regional security posture KEY POINTS On 9 April 2012, a section of the Sinai-based sions, in most cases lacking the necessary skills, pipeline that transports natural gas from Egypt training, equipment and leadership. n Internal security in Egypt has deteriorated in to Israel and Jordan was destroyed in an impro- This may seem surprising, given Egypt’s the past year, with elements of the state security vised explosive device (IED) attack carried out experiences countering terrorism by extremist apparatus degraded or distracted by the country’s by militants on the outskirts of El-Arish. The groups such as El-Gihad in the 1990s. Howev- recent political turmoil. explosion was the 14th attack on the pipeline er, with the attention of the military and inter- since the February 2011 revolt that toppled the nal security apparatus having been diverted by n Of particular concern is the situation in the Sinai Mubarak regime. The state has typically blamed political developments, extremists have been Peninsula, where at least one Al-Qaeda-inspired such attacks on Islamist extremists, whom they able to escalate their activities. One of these organization has coalesced. claim have taken advantage of a temporary ero- new groups, Supporters of Jihad in the Sinai sion of state security that has accompanied the Peninsula (Ansar al-Jihad fi Jazirat Sina) was n Egypt’s ascendant Islamist political forces will recent political turmoil. established in December 2011 as the military focus initially on stabilizing the country’s economy During the revolution, Egypt’s once arm of Al-Qaeda in the Sinai, and formally rather than seeking to influence domestic or omnipotent police and security services were pledged allegiance to Al-Qaeda leader Ayman regional security matters. Responsibility for these degraded and have yet to be reconstituted by al-Zawahiri in a statement released on 23 Janu- functions will remain with the Egyptian armed the new government. Police and state security ary 2012. The group is thought to have been forces and security establishment. forces burned important files in an effort to responsible for the repeated sabotage of gas avoid post-revolt accountability for Mubarak- pipelines in the Sinai region as well as attacks olitical upheaval in Egypt since the Arab era excesses. Hundreds of senior police officers on law enforcement targets, and continues to Spring uprisings has been accompanied – including 505 major-generals, 82 brigadier- threaten Egyptian, Israeli and US interests. P by resurgent internal security threats and generals and 82 colonels – were sacked in mid- the emergence of a new generation of Al-Qae- July 2011, with several accused of involvement Security begins at home da-inspired extremists in the Sinai Peninsula. in the repression, according to figures cited by Since the start of the Egypt revolution in Janu- The release of incarcerated extremists jailed The Washington Post. ary 2011, the nation has struggled to re-estab- under the regime of Hosni Mubarak – includ- Meanwhile, the Egyptian military, led by the lish domestic security. In addition to Mubarak’s ing members of groups such as El-Gihad – and Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF), removal, the revolution was a referendum on the escape of many others from Egyptian pris- a group of 20 senior officers headed by Minister reforming Egypt’s repressive security appara- ons, has raised concerns about whether a cau- of Defense Mohammed Tantawi that assumed tus. The immediate aftermath of the revolt saw cus of committed extremists is now at large power after Mubarak’s resignation ostensibly to a significant deterioration in security, including who may be intent on returning to violence. stabilize Egypt and manage the political transi- a series of widely reported prison escapes and a At present, the disposition of this constituency tion, lacks the capacity and inclination to ensure surge in violent crime, including car jackings, toward resumption of their former activities, or the state’s internal security. Significant sums armed robberies and kidnappings. Despite support for that already occurring, is unclear. have been spent by the Egyptian military in Mubarak’s resignation and promises to reform Armed groups claiming allegiance to Al- recent years on large, trophy weapons systems the police service, the security situation has Qaeda’s ideology and agenda are increasingly and equipment designed to fight conventional failed to improve. active in Egypt, although their attacks have so conflicts. However, Western government and Once seen as brutal and feared local enforc- far been largely confined to the Sinai, in con- defense officials familiar with Egyptian military ers of the regime, today Egyptian police are trast to groups such as El-Gihad or El-Gamaa capabilities have told IHS that the armed forces treated with little respect and viewed as rem- el-Islamiyya (GAI), which was traditionally are currently not well suited to low-intensity nants of the Mubarak regime. After violently rooted in Nile Bank towns and cities. counter-terrorism or counter-insurgency mis- cracking down on protestors during the revolu- IHS Defense, Risk and Security Consulting / June 01 EGYPT PA On 8 September 2011, Islamist and secularist politicians signed a petition demanding the expulsion of the Israeli ambassador to Egypt, the withdrawal of the Egyptian envoy in Tel Aviv, the barring of Israeli ships from transiting the Suez Canal, and the extradition to Egypt of the Israeli soldiers involved in the border skirmish. The following day, large protests converged on the Israeli embassy in Cairo, which culminated in the storming of the diplomatic mission. tion, Egyptian police became a focus of popu- done little to sway people’s opinions. Decades lar anger and many were pulled off the streets. With the attention of the of corrupt, politicized and under-supervised Today, the police have redeployed and are try- Egyptian policing – and the almost universally ing to reshape their role in a post-Mubarak military and internal security negative perception of the force – will take years Egypt, according to a June 2011 article by the apparatus having been diverted by to reverse. Security sector reform in Egypt will Christian Science Monitor. Rebuilding public political developments, extremists entail not only retraining and significant per- trust in the Egyptian police service may prove have been able to escalate their sonnel changes, but a transformation of police to be a long-term challenge. culture. Accountability to civilians will not A year later, Egyptian police officers remain activities come naturally to the Egyptian police. demoralized, underpaid and no longer encour- Meanwhile, the State Security Investigative aged to subsidize paltry incomes through cor- Service (SSIS), which served as the Mubarak ruption. Absenteeism is reportedly a significant youth, Khaled Said, generated widespread regime’s primary internal security, has lost problem. As one retired police brigadier, and popular outrage and ultimately led to their tar- much of its capacity. Like the police, the state now whistleblower, Mahmoud Qutri, told the nished image and lack of presence on Egyptian security’s 100,000-strong force operated BBC in March 2012: “Egyptian police ruled streets. In an effort to mend ties, the Ministry autonomously and without oversight, intimi- the country from behind an iron curtain. They of the Interior, which has jurisdiction over the dating Islamist and secular opposition alike, controlled all aspects of life.” But the June 2010 police, launched a community partnership in according to Amnesty International, which has extra-judicial police killing of an unarmed June between civilians and the police, but it has documented numerous cases of alleged “gross June 01 / IHS Defense, Risk and Security Consulting EGYPT human rights abuses” including “routine” tor- ture and detention without charge “sometimes for up to 10 years” by the SSIS. According to The Los Angeles Times, in early March 2011, protestors stormed multiple SSIS Digital Globe / IHS Jane’s offices as word spread that security officers were On 9 April 2012, a section of the Sinai-based pipeline that transports natural gas from Egypt to Israel destroying documents to shield the service and Jordan was destroyed in an improvised explosive device (IED) attack carried out by militants on the from investigation and accountability. On 15 outskirts of El-Arish. This satellite imagery shows the aftermath of an explosion at a gas metering station, March, the Minister of the Interior succumbed and an IHS map indicating the potential range of damage that could be caused by Hamas weapons. to popular demand and dissolved the SSIS, which has been replaced with a new agency, ticular concern. In October 2011, Egyptian Homeland Security. However, no information Ministry of Interior officials confirmed to the In order to improve the is available on what, if any, significant reforms New York Times that they had apprehended economy and avoid widespread this successor organization has implemented. five groups of smugglers transporting weap- Persistent inter-service rivalries may also ons from Libya – including anti-aircraft mis- civil disorder, the Muslim complicate efforts to improve domestic secu- sile launchers – into the Sinai. More recently, Brotherhood seems to appreciate rity. With SSIS disbanded, police capacity and in March, authorities announced that over the importance of post-election capabilities severely degraded and the service the previous three months, they had seized stabilization lacking public support, the SCAF has offered 576 weapons originating from Libya, includ- few reforms to re-establish an effective domes- ing “modern sniper rifles”. Unnamed Egyptian tic counter-terrorism and security apparatus.