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Kicking Horse River Climate Change Adaptation Ice Jamming and Gravel Deposition Town of Golden, British Columbia

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Kicking Horse River Climate Change Adaptation Ice Jamming and Gravel Deposition Town of Golden, British Columbia KICKING HORSE RIVER CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION ICE JAMMING AND GRAVEL DEPOSITION TOWN OF GOLDEN, BRITISH COLUMBIA Report Prepared for: THE TOWN OF GOLDEN Prepared by: MATRIX SOLUTIONS INC. Version 1.0 May 2018 Calgary, Alberta Suite 600, 214 - 11 Ave. SW Calgary, AB T2R 0K1 T 403.237.0606 F 403.263.2493 www.matrix-solutions.com KICKING HORSE RIVER CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION ICE JAMMING AND GRAVEL DEPOSITION TOWN OF GOLDEN, BRITISH COLUMBIA Report prepared for The Town of Golden, May 2018 reviewed by David Kushner, P.Eng. Katy Curtis, P.Eng. Hydrotechnical Engineer Senior Hydrotechnical Engineer May 31, 2018 May 31, 2018 DISCLAIMER Matrix Solutions Inc. certifies that this report is accurate and complete and accords with the information available during the project. Information obtained during the project or provided by third parties is believed to be accurate but is not guaranteed. Matrix Solutions Inc. has exercised reasonable skill, care, and diligence in assessing the information obtained during the preparation of this report. This report was prepared for The Town of Golden and Columbia Basin Trust. The report may not be relied upon by any other person or entity without the written consent of Matrix Solutions Inc. and/or of The Town of Golden, or Columbia Basin Trust. Any uses of this report by a third party, or any reliance on decisions made based on it, are the responsibility of that party. Matrix Solutions Inc. is not responsible for damages or injuries incurred by any third party, as a result of decisions made or actions taken based on this report. 5635-522 Ice & Climate R 2018-05-31 final V1.0.docx ii Matrix Solutions Inc. VERSION CONTROL Version Date Issue Type Filename Description V0.1 30-Apr-2018 Draft 5635-522 Ice & Climate LR 2018-04-30 draft V0.1.docx Issued to Town of Golden for review V1.0 31-May-2018 Final 5635-522 Ice & Climate R 2018-05-31 final V1.0.docx Issued to Columbia Basin Trust 5635-522 Ice & Climate R 2018-05-31 final V1.0.docx iii Matrix Solutions Inc. TABLE OF CONTENTS VERSION CONTROL ...................................................................................................................................... iii 1 INTRODUCTION ................................................................................................................................ 1 2 BACKGROUND .................................................................................................................................. 2 2.1 Ice Jams ............................................................................................................................... 3 2.2 Gravel Deposition ............................................................................................................... 4 3 SCOPE AND BASIS............................................................................................................................. 5 3.1 Scope ................................................................................................................................... 5 3.2 Basis .................................................................................................................................... 6 4 ICE JAM AND CLIMATE CHANGE LITERATURE REVIEW .................................................................... 7 4.1 Cited Literature ................................................................................................................... 7 4.2 River Ice Theory and Climate Change ................................................................................. 8 4.3 Trends in the Onset and Duration of the Ice Season .......................................................... 8 4.4 Site-specific Ice Studies on Other Rivers ............................................................................. 9 5 ICE JAM CLIMATE CHANGE ANLAYSIS ............................................................................................ 10 5.1 Historical Hydro-climatic Trends ....................................................................................... 10 5.2 Projected Climate Change Impacts on Hydro-climatic Trends ......................................... 13 5.2.1 Winter Flow ......................................................................................................... 13 5.2.2 Winter Air Temperature ...................................................................................... 14 5.2.3 Winter Precipitation ............................................................................................ 15 6 GRAVEL DEPOSITION CLIMATE CHANGE ANALYSIS ....................................................................... 16 7 SUMMARY OF CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON ICE JAMS AND GRAVEL DEPOSITION .................. 17 7.1 Ice Jams ............................................................................................................................. 17 7.1.1 Winter Precipitation ............................................................................................ 17 7.1.2 Winter Air Temperature ...................................................................................... 18 7.1.3 Winter Flow ......................................................................................................... 19 7.1.4 Combined Hydro-climatic Effects ........................................................................ 20 7.2 Gravel Deposition ............................................................................................................. 20 8 CONCLUSION .................................................................................................................................. 20 9 REFERENCES ................................................................................................................................... 23 5635-522 Ice & Climate R 2018-05-31 final V1.0.docx iv Matrix Solutions Inc. LIST OF FIGURES FIGURE 1 The Kicking Horse River and Columbia River Basin (adapted from CBT 2017) .............. 2 FIGURE 2 Temperate Region (modified from Prowse 2002) ......................................................... 9 FIGURE 3 Freeze-up, Ice Jam and Break-up Dates ....................................................................... 11 FIGURE 4 Historical Mean Annual and Mean Winter Temperature Trends ................................ 11 FIGURE 5 Historical Freeze-up and Break-up Temperature Trends ............................................ 12 FIGURE 6 Historical Total Annual and Winter Precipitation Trends ............................................ 12 FIGURE 7 Historical and A2 Projected Change to Average Winter Flow ..................................... 13 FIGURE 8 Historical and B1 Projected Change to Average Winter Flow ..................................... 13 FIGURE 9 Historical and A2 Projected Change to in Winter Air Temperature ............................ 14 FIGURE 10 Historical and B1 Projected Change to Winter Air Temperature................................. 14 FIGURE 11 Historical and A2 Projected Change to Winter Precipitation ...................................... 15 FIGURE 12 Historical and B1 Projected Change to Winter Precipitation ....................................... 15 FIGURE 13 Historical Deposition (or Scour) Versus Peak Instantaneous Flow .............................. 17 5635-522 Ice & Climate R 2018-05-31 final V1.0.docx v Matrix Solutions Inc. 1 INTRODUCTION The Town of Golden (the Town) engaged Matrix Solutions Inc. to complete a climate adaptation study for the Kicking Horse River (the River) in Golden, British Columbia. Funding for this study was provided by the Columbia Basin Trust (CBT) under the 3-year Climate Action Program (CAP) launched in 2017. The goals of the CAP are to build awareness, increase scientific knowledge about how climate change is projected to affect the Columbia River Basin, and help communities implement projects to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and adapt to climate change. This study summarizes local climate change projections to the year 2100 within the Kicking Horse River Basin and assesses the impact of climate change on ice jams and gravel deposition at the Town of Golden; two processes that represent significant flood hazards to the Town for which climate change impacts have not yet been directly studied. The ice jamming component of this study is supplemental to the recently completed Kicking Horse River Ice Jam Study (Ice Jam Study; Matrix 2018a). The Ice Jam Study was completed under funding from Public Safety Canada, Emergency Management British Columbia, and The Town of Golden under the risk assessment stream of the Canadian National Disaster Mitigation Program. The timing, pattern, and severity of ice jams are known to be a function of climatic conditions, channel morphology, ice characteristics, and flow conditions. Although the exact triggers, relationships, and causes of severe ice jams on the River at the Town are not fully understood, ice jams have been documented in the Town since it was first settled in the 1880s. Since 2004, there were five documented events where ice jams have resulted in ponding in low-lying areas of the Town near the dikes, three of which were related to seepage through the dikes and two where water levels overtopped the dikes. These events speak to the vulnerability of the community to ice flooding potential and highlight the need to increase understanding of possible climate change impacts. The sedimentation component of this study is based on over 20 years of River surveys and over 10 years of assessments. Since the Town is located
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