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College Football Cancellations Hike Risk on Hotel Loans in Power 5 College Towns

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College Football Cancellations Hike Risk on Hotel Loans in Power 5 College Towns Commentary SEPTEMBER 15, 2020 College Football Cancellations Hike Risk on Hotel Loans in Power 5 College Towns Carson Applegate As colleges and universities grapple with the EXHIBIT 1 Vice President, NA CMBS effects of the Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) 2019 Average Home-Game Attendance +1 312 332-9445 pandemic, already-struggling hotels in college Per Game [email protected] towns will likely face further performance declines with postponed college football Steven Jellinek games and/or severely restricted in-person Vice President, NA CMBS attendance at such games. Sixty-five different +1 312 244-7908 colleges across the United States make up the [email protected] Atlantic Coast Conference (ACC), the Big Ten 5 Conference (Big Ten), the Big 12 Conference (Big Jack Donovan 12), the Pacific-12 Conference (Pac-12), and the Senior Analyst, NA CMBS Southeastern Conference (SEC), which together +1 312 845-2278 comprise the Power Five Conferences (Power [email protected] 5). According to the National Collegiate Athletic Association (NCAA), 25.6 million fans attended Erin Stafford Power 5 home games in the fall of 2019. DBRS Managing Director, NA CMBS ACC Big Ten Big 12 Pac-12 SEC Morningstar focused its research on hotels 0 +1 312 244-3391 within the Power 5 areas because games in [email protected] these conferences generate significantly higher Sorce C ational College Football ttenance average attendance than the other five athletic Te CC incle te erage Hoe ae ttenance or te conferences in the NCAA Division 1 Football niersit o otre Dae Bowl Subdivision (FBS). In 2019, Power 5 home The Big 12, SEC, and ACC, including the University games drew an average of 58,488 attendees of Notre Dame (Notre Dame), plan to move ahead while American Athletic Conference—the with their seasons as usual, but several schools conference with the next-highest home-game plan to limit capacity at their stadiums, ban attendance—home games drew an average of tailgating, and/or bar spectators from attending 30,491 attendees. games. On August 18, 2020, the University of Alabama (an SEC school that averaged 101,117 Coronavirus-Related Contingencies and attendees per game in 2019) announced that its Implications for Surrounding Hotels 101,821-seat Bryant-Denny Stadium will operate Because of concerns for college athletes at approximately 20% capacity and that it would amid the pandemic, the Big Ten and Pac-12 not allow tailgating for the fall 2020 season. Duke conferences both cancelled their fall 2020 University (an ACC school that averaged 25,811 football seasons; however, there is some attendees per game last year) announced that speculation that these conferences may fall athletic events will be spectator-free and reconsider their decisions. In 2019, 9.8 million parking lots historically used by football fans will people attended Big Ten and Pac-12 home games be closed for the fall season. The ACC, Big 12, and and schools in these conferences averaged SEC accounted for 15.8 million, averaging 60,293 56,649 attendees per home game. attendees per home game. 1 DBRS Morningstar College Football Cancellations Hike Risk on Hotel Loans in Power 5 College Towns Commentary Power 5 schools acknowledge that there will be Power 5 Direct-Exposure Loans a decline in profit for the 2020 football season DBRS Morningstar identified 133 loans secured and the hotel sector in these college towns will only by hotel properties within a five-mile radius likely face unprecedented revenue deterioration. of Power 5 football stadiums (Power 5 Direct- According to a 2019 GateHouse Media Exposure Loans). These loans total $3.98 billion Tertiary and rural markets investigation, 93 public universities collectively and are secured by 141 properties located across spent $4.91 million on home-game hotel rooms in 28 states and 51 cities. Exposure to the Big Ten are generally less densely 2018, which equated to a median of approximately and Pac-12, which have postponed their fall populated areas with $44,000 per team. Major college football teams 2020 football seasons, represents $1.69 billion justified the expense because hotels offer better in CMBS exposure. Comparatively, the combined economies that depend (1) sleep schedules for players, (2) structured team balance of hotel loans near Big 12, ACC, and SEC more heavily on revenue meals, (3) game film review, and (4) walk-through football stadiums is $2.29 billion. from college football practices. Reduced or no attendees associated with the cancelation and/or postponement of EXHIBIT 3 compared with loans football games will likely have a negative effect on Direct-Exposure Senior Loan Balance by secured by lodging lodging properties near college stadiums. Conference properties in suburban or $807,339,766 Commercial Mortgage-Backed Security (CMBS) $786,479,429 urban markets. Exposure DBRS Morningstar identified 177 CMBS loans with an outstanding balance of $16.96 billion secured by 291 hotels within five miles of a Power 5 football stadium. Fourteen of the loans $699,184,241 (totaling $7.26 billion or 42.8% of total exposure) $1,217,853,227 are secured by portfolios with at least two hotel properties in different Power 5 college towns as $469,348,168 well as properties outside Power 5 college towns ACC Big 12 Big Ten Pac 12 SEC (Large Diversified Hotel Portfolio Loans). Of these 163 loans (totaling $9.70 billion or 57.2% of total The Power 5 Direct-Exposure Loans are generally exposure), 30 loans totaling $5.72 billion are concentrated in suburban markets. The ACC, Big secured by hotel properties that are not in Power Ten, and PAC-12 have a weighted-average (WA) 5 college towns. We excluded these 30 loans and DBRS Morningstar Market Rank of 6 while the the 14 Large Diversified Hotel Portfolio Loans from Big 12 and SEC have a WA DBRS Morningstar our analysis to determine a set of loans with the Market Rank of 5. We expect the loans backed highest exposure to the Power 5 conferences. by collateral in tertiary (DBRS Morningstar Rank of 2) and rural (DBRS Morningstar Market Rank EXHIBIT 2 of 1) markets, which collectively represent 7.3% Total Senior Loan Balance Power 5 of the total Power 5 Direct-Exposure balance, Exposure to experience the harshest performance issues because of the postponement and restrictions $2,323,760,312 surrounding the fall 2020 football season. $943,417,978 Tertiary and rural markets are generally less densely populated areas with economies that $7,264,474,778 depend more heavily on revenue from college $2,378,446,978 football compared with loans secured by lodging properties in suburban or urban markets. $1,860,715,583 Only two loans—HGI Starkville and Starkville $2,191,917,831 Hospitality Portfolio—are secured by collateral ACC Big 12 Big Ten Pac 12 with a DBRS Morningstar Rank of 1, which SEC Multiple Conference Exposure indicates rural locations. Together, these loans only account for 0.5% of the total Power 5 Direct-Exposure Loan balance and are secured by collateral in Starkville, Mississippi, which 2 DBRS Morningstar College Football Cancellations Hike Risk on Hotel Loans in Power 5 College Towns Commentary EXHIBIT 4 ACC Direct-Exposure Loans Direct-Exposure Loans by DBRS Morningstar Market Rank The ACC is among the conferences that hope to carry out a regular fall 2020 football season, and $1,400,000,000 1 began playing games on September 12, 2020. PAC 12 2 3 Notre Dame’s football team was not part of the $1,200,000,000 4 ACC for 2019, but will be for the 2020 season. 5 6 The ACC conference, including Notre Dame, had 7 $1,000,000,000 8 5.0 million attendees at home games in 2019 ACC SEC with an average of 50,038 per game. Excluding $800,000,000 Big 12 Notre Dame, total 2019 attendance drops to 4.4 million attendees with an average of 48,041 per $600,000,000 Big Ten game. DBRS Morningstar identified nine loans, $400,000,000 representing 21.3% of the ACC Direct-Exposure Loan balance, that were either delinquent or $200,000,000 specially serviced and 11 loans, representing $0 35.5% of the balance, that were performing but on the servicer’s watchlist. The ACC had the highest portion of performing loans at 42.9%. is home to Mississippi State University. Fifty The ACC’s largest loan within the Power 5 Direct- loans are secured by collateral with a DBRS Exposure Loans is the Hyatt Regency Atlanta Morningstar Market Rank of 2, which indicates at $243.7 million. The 1,260-key, full-service tertiary locations. These loans only account for hotel was recently securitized in BX 2019-ATL 6.9% of the of the total Power 5 Direct-Exposure (not rated by DBRS Morningstar), a single-asset Loan balance. single-borrower (SASB) transaction. The sponsor for the loan, an affiliate of the Blackstone Group The largest loan secured by tertiary or rural Inc., reached out to the special servicer in July collateral is the Marriott Morgantown 2020 for coronavirus relief, but the loan remains Waterfront at $23.0 million, securitized in current. The property benefits from its proximity the DBRS Morningstar-rated BMARK 2019- to the Georgia Institute of Technology’s (Georgia B15 (rated by DBRS Morningstar). This loan, Tech) Bobby Dodd Stadium, which averaged backed by a 207-key hotel near West Virginia 44,599 attendees per home game in 2019. University’s Mountaineer Field at Milan Puskar Georgia Tech plans to limit attendance at Bobby Stadium, is currently on the servicer’s watchlist. Dodd Stadium to 20.0% of capacity, or about The sponsors for the loan were granted a 11,000 fans per game, for the fall 2020 football coronavirus-related forbearance from June 2020 season.
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