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Austin Fairmont Hotel Trust 2019-FAIR

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Austin Fairmont Hotel Trust 2019-FAIR Presale: Austin Fairmont Hotel Trust 2019-FAIR September 25, 2019 PRIMARY CREDIT ANALYST Preliminary Ratings Natalka H Chevance New York Market value decline Debt yield (1) 212-438-1236 Class Preliminary rating Preliminary amount ($) LTV (%) (%)(i) (%)(ii) natalka.chevance A AAA (sf) 88,065,000 30.0 84.8 31.6 @spglobal.com X-CP BBB-(sf) 90,440,000(iii) N/A N/A N/A SECONDARY CONTACT X-EXT BBB-(sf) 90,440,000(iii) N/A N/A N/A James C Digney New York B AA- (sf) 33,155,000 41.3 79.1 23.0 (1) 212-438-1832 C A- (sf) 24,700,000 49.7 74.8 19.1 james.digney @spglobal.com D BBB- (sf) 32,585,000 60.8 69.2 15.6 E BB- (sf) 51,395,000 78.3 60.3 12.1 F B- (sf) 45,505,000 93.8 52.5 10.1 G NR 9,595,000 97.1 50.8 9.8 RR interest NR 15,000,000 N/A N/A N/A Note: This presale report is based on information as of Sept. 25, 2019. The ratings shown are preliminary. Subsequent information may result in the assignment of final ratings that differ from the preliminary ratings. Accordingly, the preliminary ratings should not be construed as evidence of final ratings. This report does not constitute a recommendation to buy, hold, or sell securities. (i)Reflects the approximate decline in the $610.0 million appraised as-is value that would be necessary to experience a principal loss at the given rating level. (ii)Based on S&P Global Ratings' net cash flow and the mortgage balance. (iii) Notional balance. The class X-CP and class X-EXT certificates will not have certificate balances and will not be entitled to distributions of principal. The notional amount of the class X-CP and class X-EXT certificates will be equal to the aggregate certificate balance of class B, class C and class D Certificates. LTV--Loan-to-value ratio, based on S&P Global Ratings' values. NR--Not rated. Profile Expected closing date Oct. 15, 2019. Loan One two-year floating-rate commercial mortgage loan maturing Sept. 9, 2021, with three, one-year extension options totaling $300 million. The loan is interest-only for its entire term and has an interest rate equal to LIBOR + 2.1125%. There is an interest rate cap equal to 3.50% during the loan term and the greater of 3.5% and the amount which results in a DSC of 1.10X during any extension period. Collateral The borrower's leasehold interest in the 1,048-guestroom Fairmont Austin, a full-service luxury hotel in Austin, Texas. www.standardandpoors.com September 25, 2019 1 © S&P Global Ratings. All rights reserved. No reprint or dissemination without S&P Global Ratings' permission. See Terms of Use/Disclaimer 2306655 on the last page. Presale: Austin Fairmont Hotel Trust 2019-FAIR Profile (cont.) Payment structure Principal payments will be made sequentially, first to the class A, then B, then C, then D, then E, then F, and then G certificates. The issuer will make interest payments on the certificates to the class A, X-CP, and E-XT certificates, pro rata, based on the interest due, and then sequentially to the class B, then C, then D, then E, then F, and then G certificates. Realized losses will be allocated in reverse sequential order. Secondary debt Mezzannine debt totaling $125.0 million. Loan sellers Bank of America N.A. and Wells Fargo Bank N.A. Borrower Manchester Austin LLC, a special purpose entity whose primary business is the ownership of the mortgaged property. The borrower sponsor is a joint venture between Manchester Financial Group and Colony Capital (the loan's sponsor). Servicer Wells Fargo Bank N.A. Special servicer Berkadia Commercial Mortgage LLC Trustee Wilmington Trust N.A. Certificate Wells Fargo Bank N.A. administrator Rationale The preliminary ratings assigned to the Austin Fairmont Hotel Trust 2019-FAIR's commercial mortgage pass-through certificates reflect S&P Global Ratings' view of the collateral's historical and projected performance, the sponsor's and manager's experience, the trustee-provided liquidity, the loan's terms, and the transaction's structure. We determined that the loan has a beginning and ending loan-to-value (LTV) ratio of 97.1%, based on our value of the property backing the transaction. Strengths The transaction exhibits the following strengths: - The collateral comprises a 1,048-guestroom luxury convention hotel in the Austin central business district (CBD) newly built in 2018. Amenities include about 140,000 sq. ft. of meeting space, five food and beverage outlets, a rooftop terrace, full service spa, fitness center, and outdoor swimming pool. The hotel is well located as it is connected via a skywalk to the Austin Convention Center and is across from the Rainy Street District, which features numerous restaurants, shops, galleries and live entertainment centers. - The property benefits from its affiliation with the nationally recognized Fairmont Hotels & Resorts (Fairmont) brand. In addition to name recognition, the brand affiliation enables the hotel to benefit from Fairmont's brand-wide reservation system, national marketing campaigns, and frequent-stay program, Le Club AccorHotels. The management agreement with Accor Hotels & Resorts is long term through 2038. The base management fee is 3.0% of total revenue. Fairmont is principally owned by Accor SA ('BBB-/A-3). - The property is located in Austin, which has experienced very strong population growth and unemployment rates well below national and state levels over the last several years. Austin was deemed the "best place to live in the U.S." three years in a row through 2019 by U.S. News and World Report. The market has been bolstered by the technology industry, which has established a major presence in the area and the market is expected to continue to grow as new www.standardandpoors.com September 25, 2019 2 © S&P Global Ratings. All rights reserved. No reprint or dissemination without S&P Global Ratings' permission. See Terms of Use/Disclaimer 2306655 on the last page. Presale: Austin Fairmont Hotel Trust 2019-FAIR employers continue to relocate to the area. The city also benefits from a variety of attractions that drive tourism to the area, including the popular South by Southwest and Austin City Limits events. The concentration of technology-related companies, above-average population growth, and expansion in housing, transportation, and distribution will help foster growth over the next several years. - Although the property only opened for operation in March 2018, the property's RevPAR penetration rate--which measures the RevPAR of the hotel relative to its competitors, with 100% indicating parity with competitors--has steadily increased. In the trailing three month (T3M) period ended July 2018, the hotel's RevPAR penetration rate was 70.3%, compared to 94.9% in the T3M period ended June 2019. As of the trailing twelve month (TTM) period ended July 2019, the hotel's average daily rate (ADR) was in line with that of its competitive set; however, its occupancy penetration was 89.6% during the same period. This is due mainly to the hotel's recent opening, but also because the hotel has the largest room count within the competitive set. The hotel competes within a competitive set of five other nationally branded upscale hotels, including the Omni Austin Hotel Downtown, InterContinental Austin Hotel, Hilton Austin, W Hotel Austin, and JW Marriott Austin. - The transaction is structured so that the borrower is responsible for most expenses that would typically result in shortfalls to the certificateholders, such as special servicing, work-out, and liquidation fees, as well as costs and expenses incurred from appraisals and inspections that the special servicer conducts. In addition, the servicer must advance interest due on the loan provided the collateral has sufficient value and that the advance is deemed recoverable from liquidation proceeds, which we believe will help avoid or mitigate shortfalls to the certificateholders. Risk Considerations The risks we considered for this transaction include the following: - The trust loan balance is highly leveraged, with a 97.1% S&P Global Ratings LTV. The LTV based on the appraiser's valuation is 49.2%. Our long-term sustainable value estimate is 49.3% lower than the appraiser's valuation. - The mortgage loan is interest-only for its entire term, meaning there will be no scheduled amortization during the loan term. We aaccounted for this lack of amortization by using lower LTV thresholds at each rating category. - In addition to the mortgage loan, there is additional debt in the form of a $125.0 million mezzanine loan, which increases our LTV ratio to 137.5% from 97.1%. We accounted for the additional debt by using lower LTV recovery thresholds at each rating category. - The loan bears interest at a floating rate indexed to one-month LIBOR. Increases in LIBOR up to the 3.5% interest rate cap will raise the interest payable on the underlying loan, decreasing the loan's DSC. The loan is structured with a 3.5% LIBOR cap during the initial term, and acquiring a new interest rate cap is a condition for each loan extension. The interest rate cap agreement generally complies with our counterparty criteria. - The property has a limited operating history as it only opened for business in March 2018. Therefore, there is less than two years of historical revenue and expense data to asses. However, we also relied on the appraiser's expense estimates and comparables as well as the hotel's monthly performance trends to derive our sustainable NCF for the property.
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